Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-16 August 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Ergenekon case reaches its expected finish, with 19 defendants facing decades in prison. Former Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug, faces life for his role in the conspiracy.
• The timing of the case’s conclusion with the recent military overthrow of Egypt’s democratically elected government appears to be a message to Turkey’s generals.
• Outside of the AKP camp, critics rounded on the lack of plausibility regarding the evidence and cast of players.
• Parliament’s Constitutional Commission speeds up its work, adding protections for women, children, and homosexuals to the draft document.
• Turkey’s economy slows as foreign investment pulls back from emerging markets.
• Yet the long term investment possibilities, specifically in the energy infrastructure sector, appear to be a solid bet.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.09.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 16-31, 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Kurdish PYD seizes several towns in Syria’s northwest, ejecting Islamist groups from a Turkish border crossing.
• Turkey reaches out to the PYD, whose leader visits and meets with the country’s political and military representatives.
• Reporters Without Borders drops Turkey to 154 in its press freedom index.
• The PKK and AKP snipe at one another about adherence to the ceasefire. Progress on adjustment to legislation intended to ameliorate the Kurdish dilemma must be made soon, otherwise the momentum and dialogue gains made during recent months might slip away.
• Turkey’s energy import payments decreased in early 2013, while plans for a proposed nuclear plant are rejected by the Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning.
• Genel reports that the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq will have its own export pipeline by 2014. It remains to be seen what the next move of the Iraqi Government will be.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.08.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Lietuvos Dujos prepares to extend its current gas supply contract with Gazprom in exchange for lower prices and offtake commitments; Gazprom to amend its gas supply contract with RWE following Vienna arbitration ruling; Edison is next in line for arbitration with Gazprom following the RWE ruling; Gazprom announces an upward revision of its 2013 gas export forecast and a 29 percent increase in gas exports to Europe in July 2013 versus the same period in 2012
• Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukraine reach agreement on reliable gas transit via Ukraine for winter 2013-14
• The Armenian government considers handing over its remaining stake in the country’s natural gas monopoly to Gazprom in exchange for lower prices; Gazprom acquires Kyrgyzstan’s natural gas monopoly, Kyrgyzgaz, and pledges substantial investment
• The Bulgarian section of South Stream faces delays over environmental reports and construction permits, but Gazprom remains adamant that the project will be completed on schedule; Macedonia to get South Stream branch
• Gazprom Germania decides against new UGSF in Triepkendorf, but continues to investigate the possibility of new gas storage facilities near Nord Stream’s landfall; Gazprom continues to press for full use of the OPAL pipeline in Germany; Nederlandse Gasunie complains about the quality of Russian gas delivered via Nord Stream
• Gazprom takes delivery of second LNG tanker for the delivery of gas to the Asia-Pacific via the Northern Sea Route
• Rosneft increases gas production by 186 percent versus H1 2012, providing further competition for Gazprom in the Russian gas sector; The International Energy Agency (IEA) voices its support for a shift from oil-indexed to spot gas prices; Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering wins tender for up to 16 ice-class LNG tankers for the Yamal LNG project; Moscow hosts the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.08.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 24
07/15/2013
Ukraine is not ready at the moment to sign the association agreement with the EU, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius said on 8 July 2013. On 10 July, Linkevicius also stated that Lithuania questioned Ukraine's ability to meet the criteria put forward by the EU for signing the association agreement at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 02.08.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-15 July 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey’s Parliament recesses for the summer break, having pushed through several pieces of legislation at the last hour. The most divisive of these aimed at stripping the power of the influential architects’ union, which supported the Taksim Square protests.
• Progress is slow on the new constitution. The CHP accuses Prime Minister Erdogan of only wanting to blame the opposition on the glacial nature of the new document in order to make himself president.
• The PKK reshuffles its leadership, but the head of the group’s armed wing warns the Turkish government to take immediate steps to show it is committed to the peace agreement.
• Turkey’s backing of moderate rebel fighters in Syria has not turned the tide in the country as Salafist groups with Gulf backers gain influence in the opposition.
• The growing numbers of Syrian refugees pose a grave threat to Turkey’s own domestic tranquillity.
• Completion nears on a northern oil pipeline between Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Government that will connect with the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan line, all at the expense of Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 19.07.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during June 16-30th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Germany again blocks Turkey’s EU accession negotiations, citing the AKP government’s response to the Taksim Square protests.
• Turkey’s leading official in charge of EU negotiations criticizes German Chancellor Angela Merkel over the matter.
• Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan continues assertions that foreign powers are at play behind the protest movement.
• A lack of evidence to this assertion, and the obvious lack of a “Deep State” that he subdued continues to make Erdogan look like a leader proffering conspiracy theories rather than listening to protesters demands.
• NABUCCO (West) meets its end when Shah Deniz Consortium chooses TAP pipeline project on June 28.
• NABUCCO’s end is a result of over a decade of rising cost and changing geopolitical positions of the stakeholders involved.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.07.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• The Lithuanian Supreme Court postpones its hearing of Gazprom’s complaint against the Lithuanian Court of Appeal; RWE Supply and Trading CZ wins a gas price dispute with Gazprom in the Vienna Commercial Court; Gazprom fails to bid for Greece’s gas distribution system operator, DEPA; Gazprom officially announces its plans to construct an LNG export terminal on Russia’s Baltic coast; Gazprom predicts a year-on-year increase in gas exports in 2013
• Gazprom pays Ukraine $1bn in an advance for gas transit fees until 1st of January 2015; Gazprom is not pursuing legal action against Naftogaz Ukraine for failing to meet its ‘take or pay’ commitments; There are no ongoing talks about the establishment of a consortium to manage Ukraine’s gas transportation system (GTS)
• Gazprom continues to examine the potential for a second line of the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Europe via Belarus
• Gazprom confirms that the construction of South Stream’s offshore section will begin in the second quarter of 2014, to be launched in 2015; Collapse of the Nabucco pipeline project clears the way for South Stream in South-East Europe
• Gazprom and GDF Suez agree to explore the possibility of expanding the Nord Stream pipeline
• Gazprom and CNPC aim to sign gas supply contract by the end of 2013; Gazprom and the Japan Far East Gas Co. Ltd sign a Memorandum of Understanding on the latter’s participation in Gazprom’s Vladivostok LNG project.
• Gazprom’s Chairman and Chief Executive are re-elected at the company’s Annual General Meeting; CNPC purchases a 20 percent stake in Novatek’s Yamal LNG project

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.07.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-15 June 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Despite heavy police action to clear Taksim Square, the protests continue.
• Erdogan’s hard line stance towards the demonstrations is opening a rift inside the AKP, with one camp supportive of President Abdullah Gul’s conciliatory approach towards protesters.
• The prime minister hints at foreign and domestic plots behind the Gezi Park situation, making him look increasingly out of touch with the reality on the ground in Istanbul.
• Turkey’s play in Syria falters as Sunni extremists come to the fore of the opposition. Meanwhile Bashar alAssad’s forces secure victories against the fractured opposition.
• Exxon and TPAO in talks to secure an exploration block for shale gas in the Black Sea.
• Tensions in Iraqi Kurdistan ebb as Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki visits Erbil.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.06.2013  |  External Relations
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The Black Sea has lost none of its geopolitical significance over time. Historically, the Black Sea has played an important economic and political role in a wider-region. The realignment of geopolitical and security strategies in Eurasia during the last two decades has led to the “re-discovery” of one of the world’s most significant geostrategic areas. Securing access to new energy deposits from the Caspian has heightened the strategic significance of the Wider Black Sea (WBS) in Western external policy thinking. Unfortunately, since the early 1990s, the region has been bogged down in a belt of protracted conflicts that could potentially threaten both European stability and energy supply, while trans-national crime and other asymmetric security threats are thriving. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.06.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 20
06/17/2013
President Viktor Yanukovych said on 13 June 2013 that he could not see a reason why Ukraine should be deprived of the EU membership prospect. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 19.06.2013  |  External Relations
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