Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during May 16-31th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Protests in Istanbul’s Taksim Square erupt over a heavy handed police response and government indifference to the protesters’ demands.
• The protest, while minor in the beginning, has been a spark that has brought hundreds of thousands into the streets across Turkey’s major cities, with anger directed at the leadership of Prime Minister Erdogan.
• International press widely covers the protests, drawing the attention of investors who have until recently been extolling the virtues of AKP governance. Should the unrest continue, Turkey’s impressive economic performance could come to a halt.
• Despite civil unrest, the country’s energy future looks bright as NABUCCO West brings on GDF Suez and Turkmenistan seals an agreement for transit rights across Turkey for natural gas shipments.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 11.06.2013  |  External Relations
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By Sébastien Jadot, Guest Contributor to EGF Middle East and Africa Research

June 2013
Key points:

• Boko Haram challenges Nigeria’s security as well as secularism
• The radicalization of Islam in Nigeria – how did it come about?
• A new role for the Shari’a in Nigeria
• The role of Boko Haram in reviving the ideology of extremism
• Is Boko Haram protected by the Nigerian state?
• Evidence of Boko Haram linkages to regional terror groups emerging
• International response not yet decisive
• It may become more decisive when offshoots of Boko Haram begin to appear

• Sébastien Jadot  |  Published on EGF: 11.06.2013
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ISSUE # 18
06/03/2013
On 31 May 2013, Ukraine signed a memorandum on intensifying cooperation with the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. The Ukrainian side was represented by Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, who signed the document. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 08.06.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 17
05/27/2013
The European Parliament (EP) supports Ukraine's intention to sign the association agreement with the EU this autumn, but expects Kiev to honour the commitments it has undertaken to this end, the chair of the EP Committee on Foreign Affairs, Elmar Brok, said on 23 May 2013. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 07.06.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• The tortuous legal wrangling between Gazprom, the Lithuanian government, and Lithuania’s main gas utility, Lietuvos Dujos, continues; Gazprom set to finalise its bid for Greece’s gas distribution system operator, DEPA; Gazprom could construct Baltic LNG terminal
• Gazprom rejects an invitation to attend a high level ministerial seminar in Brussels on Ukraine’s energy market, which was jointly organised by the European Commission and the Ukrainian energy ministry; Ukraine could cede control over its gas transit pipelines in exchange for guaranteed transit and a gas price discount
• The construction of South Stream in Serbia will begin in late 2013 according to Srbijagas; South Stream Chief Exec, Marcel Kramer, confirms that South Stream is on schedule for financing in early 2014 and construction of the first line in 2015
• Gazprom and CNPC aim to sign a gas supply contract by the end of 2013; Gazprom could lose its export monopoly in the Asia-Pacific region; freight deliveries from Northern Russia to China via the Northern Sea Route demonstrate the possibilities of LNG exports from Northern Russian to the Asia-Pacific region.
• Rosneft steps up the pressure on Gazprom with its buyout of Itera.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 05.06.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 16
05/20/2013
On 15 May 2013, the European Commission supported a proposal regarding an association agreement with Ukraine, passing the decision on to the European Council. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 16 th - May 15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Domestic politics heat up as the opposition CHP accuses Prime Minister Erdogan of authoritarianism in seeking the presidency after his term as prime minister is up.
• A judicial reform aimed at clarifying aspects of Turkish terrorism laws aims to placate EU critics and could lead to the release of hundreds of imprisoned activists.
• Turkey continues to avoid direct military intervention into Syria’s civil war, though fears of the sectarian conflict’s spread has the country on edge.
• U.S. sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program necessitate Turkish efforts at diversifying its energy reliance away from Tehran.
• Israel makes overtures to Ankara regarding a natural gas pipeline in the eastern Mediterranean, while TANAP is set for construction to begin following ratification of the agreement by both Turkish and Azerbaijani parliaments.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 18.05.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Negotiations between Russia and Lithuania over their gas relationship and the unbundling over LietuvosDujos continue; Polish Treasury Minister and PGNiG Chief Executive are sacked as a result of a EuRoPolGaz-Gazprom agreement to investigate the possible expansion of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline
• Gazprom boycotts a high-level roundtable held by Ukrainian and EU representatives on the future management and development of Ukraine’s gas transport system, and warns European energy companies against reselling Russian gas back to Ukraine, as Ukraine continues to seek alternatives to Russian gas imports
• Gazprom and Gasunie agree to investigate the possibility of expanding the Nord Stream gas pipeline, with Gazprom eyeing an increase in gas exports to the British market, despite the current under-utilisationof the existing Nord Stream pipeline
• Gazprom announces that the spatial planning and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports for South Stream in Slovenia are almost complete and that construction could begin next year; Bulgarian government announces a review of South Stream, but pledges to continue with the project; Construction of the Serbian section of South Stream could start by the end of 2013, rather than in 2014 as planned
• Gazprom announces its 2012 financial results; Rosneft continues to challenge Gazprom in the sphere of gas exports by announcing talks with ExxonMobil over the construction of an LNG export terminal in Russia’s Far East; Beltransgaz to be renamed Gazprom Transgaz Belarus to reflect Gazprom’s takeover

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 16.05.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 1-15th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey and Israel take small steps in resuming normalized relations. Both are to formalize financial compensation for the Mavi Marmara incident, while Turkey is leaning on the victims’ families to drop their court cases against Israeli military personnel.
• NATO is set to benefit from the reset which allows Israel’s participation in alliance activities as a member of the Mediterranean Dialogue.
• Energy cooperation brings Turkey and the KRG of Iraq closer in spite of Baghdad’s objections. Turkish-Anglo firm Genel is set to profit from its early investments into the oil fields in the Kurdish north of Iraq.
• A cease fire continues to hold between the government and PKK, though Kurdish fighters are reluctant to give up their arms until a formal peace deal is agreed to. AKP leadership on the issue is causing splits in the main opposition CHP, with a nationalist camp opposed to the talks causing a pronounced rift to emerge in the party.
• A Turkish pianist is charged with hate speech for incendiary remarks against Muslims on his Twitter account. His conviction and other cases of free speech prosecutions are a dark stain on the AKP’s otherwise impressive governing record.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.04.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 14
04/22/2013
On 18 April 2013, the European Parliament decided to extend the monitoring mission headed by former European Parliament President Pat Cox and former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2013  |  External Relations
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