Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher and Andrew Judge

Do such organisations exist beyond the ‘self fulfilling prophecy’ level? Amidst the current tensions about Russian military deployment in Crimea, there has been considerable speculation in the European and American media about the security of Russian gas supplies to the EU. Such speculation is generated by a combination of concerns over the level of dependency on Russian gas imports faced by several EU member states and fears that the Russian government considers gas exports to be an ‘energy weapon’ that can be deployed against its former Soviet neighbours. This short article will address the likelihood of a suspension of Russian gas supplies to Ukraine and the impact of such a suspension on EU gas imports. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 15.03.2014  |  External Relations
•  

Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during February 18-28th- 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Ukraine loses control of the Crimean Peninsula, to the dismay of the region’s Muslim Tatar population.
• Turkey’s historical and cultural ties to the Crimean Tatars increase the chance that the conflict escalates. However, its connections may also offer a path for Turkish diplomatic efforts to intercede in further confrontation between Russia and the West.
• Leaked audio tapes appear to implicate Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan and his son of wrongdoing in the corruption scandal, though their authenticity remains disputed.
• Erdogan hits back following the recordings release, claiming that the international media, the Gulen Movement and other outside powers are behind the investigations.
• The peace process with the Kurds remains frozen as Abdullah Ocalan appears to warn the Gulen Movement against undermining the country by attempting a coup.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.03.2014  |  External Relations
•  

Issue # 07
03/03/2014
The Russian military have seized Ukrainian weapons and gained control over Crimea, the media have reported. You can find more details in the section "SITUATION IN CRIMEA". READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 10.03.2014  |  External Relations
•  

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• The calm before the storm: Gazprom fails to assuage EU concerns over pricing as EU continues preparing statement of objections in antitrust investigation
• Gazprom set to extend contract with Greece
• Gazprom agrees to withdraw from management of Amber Grid, and offers Lithuania lower gas price
• Russian loan to Ukraine strongly tied to Naftogaz’s debt to Gazprom
• Nord Stream AG completes feasibility study for expansion, with UK as target market
• South Stream consortium signs pipe supply contract for offshore section as Gazprom presses ahead with the project, despite uncertainties
• Gazprom and Shell sign roadmap for third LNG train at Sakhalin-II
• Gazprom HQ could relocate from Moscow to St. Petersburg by 2015

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.02.2014  |  External Relations
•  

Edition #6
02/24/2014
On 23 February 2014, the Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution authorizing speaker Oleksandr Turchynov to act as the president of Ukraine until a new head of state is elected. The presidential election has been set for 25 May 2014. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 24.02.2014  |  External Relations
•  

Special Edition
02/22/2014
A new situational majority has been established in the Ukrainian Parliament (including representative of the Party of Regions faction, - ed.), that has supported a number of laws and decrees of the opposition MPs. It is also to note that as of 22 February 63 out of 210 deputies have left the Party of Regions faction. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 22.02.2014  |  External Relations
•  

Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during February 1-18th 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The AKP-majority in parliament passes a restrictive Internet censorship bill despite opposition parties and international outcry.
• President Abdullah Gul declines to veto the measure, disappointing many who hoped he would be a moderating influence in the months to come.
• American President Barack Obama to skip Turkey in March trip to Europe and Saudi Arabia. The skip is indicative of the cooling relations between the president and Prime Minister Erdogan over a number of issues.
• TPAO declines investment in Iran for now, while talks on a pipeline deal in the Eastern Mediterranean and a détente between Turkey, Cyprus and Israel appears mutually beneficial.
• Iraqi Kurdistan connects pipeline to Turkish system, enraging a Baghdad already beset by a Sunni insurgency in Iraq’s western province. Turkey is collecting the KRG’s oil, but has refused to sell it on international markets until an accord is reached.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.02.2014  |  External Relations
•  

Ben McPherson, EGF Eurasian politics researcher

In a recent letter to the European Geopolitical Forum, HE Vladimir Norov, the ambassador of the Republic of Uzbekistan in Belgium, highlighted the robust economic development his country has enjoyed since the turn of the millennium. In addition, he described government priorities for 2014 aimed at continuing the boom. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 19.02.2014
•  

Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during January 1-31st 2014
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The AKP government effectively halts the corruption investigations by conducting the largest judicial reshuffle in the Republic’s history.
• Fethullah Gulen defends prosecutors’ actions but denies any complicity on part of his Gulen Movement as part of a conspiracy against the government.
• Prime Minister Erdogan takes a softer tone in a hostile Brussels as he visits the seat of the EU for the first time in five years.
• Capital flight continues to harm Turkey’s economic prospects as the lira faces longest consecutive days of losses against the dollar since 2001.
• Defying the prime minister’s warnings that an interest rate hike is part of a conspiracy, the Central Bank acts in an emergency meeting, raising interest rates more than 4 percent.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 04.02.2014  |  External Relations
•  

A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas and Lecturer in Energy Politics at the European University of St Petersburg

Key points:

• EU continues to prepare Statement of Objections despite Gazprom’s December proposals for an early settlement
• Gazprom breaks record in gas exports to Europe in 2013 with 16 percent y-o-y increase in gas export volumes
• Gazprom-OMV contractual adjustments ‘unaffected’ by EU antimonopoly investigation
• Dutch gas production set to decline in 2014-15 – Could Gazprom fill the gap?
• Putin outlines Russia’s position regarding Ukraine: the gas debt still needs to be paid and the Russian government is prepared to work with whoever is in power in Ukraine
• Nord Stream: EU and Gazprom agree on full use of OPAL pipeline
• EU and Russia continue to negotiate over the application of Third Party Access legislation to the South Stream project
• Gazprom plans to sign deal with CNPC (China) in May, during Putin visit to China
• Gazprom completes 100 percent takeover of ArmRosGazprom (Armenia)
• Gazprom adds fifth tanker to its LNG carrier fleet

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 03.02.2014  |  External Relations
•