Transition in Ukraine: A Critical Assessment and Current Challenges
January 2013

When the communist bloc disintegrated between 1989 and 1991, Western understanding of transition had been largely influenced by authoritarian transitions in Latin America and Southern Europe since the 1960s. Few scholars of post-communist transition have sought to develop a theoretical framework that encapsulates all four aspects of the quadruple transition: political and economic reform, state and nation building. Few scholars have grappled with the added complication of newly independent states, such as Ukraine, not only introducing political and economic reform simultaneously but also building institutions and a state while forging a unified nation-state. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.02.2013
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Transition in Turkey: A Critical Assessment and Current Challenges
January 2013

Following the footsteps of Kemal Atatürk, post-WWII Turkish political leaders kept the Western-oriented and secular orientation of the country. The Kemalist leadership was based on six main untouchable principles: “republicanism,” “nationalism,” “populism,” “secularism,” “reformism” and “statism.” READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.02.2013
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By Claudia Nocente, Research Associate Global Security
February 2013

Key points:

• Egypt’s new administration between international praise and domestic unrest
• Morsi assumes pharaonic powers in an attempt to rid Egypt of Mubarak judges
• The felool take another shot in Egyptian politics
• The generals remain silent
• The Egyptian economy sinks

• Claudia Nocente  |  Published on EGF: 12.02.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 03
02/04/2013
On 30 January 2013, Foreign Minister Leonid Kozhara said that Ukraine would remain a reliable transit country for Russian gas sent to the EU. He said this at a meeting with European Commissioner for Energy Guenther Oettinger. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 08.02.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during January 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Reports leak about the training of Turkish soldiers for missions to secure Syria’s weapons of mass destruction.
• Construction is underway on Kurdish Regional Government’s pipeline projects to Turkey. The project continues to be a thorn in the side of Baghdad, alienating it from Ankara as well as Erbil.
• KRG-Turkish cooperation is also key in Ankara’s efforts at creating a counterweight to the PYD in Syria, with pro-Masoud Barzani groups seen as a better option than PKK sympathetic militant groups.
• Turkey’s judicial and penal systems come under scrutiny despite substantial EU funding to improve prisoners living conditions.
• In a move to diversify away from cleaner gas-powered electrical production plants, tenders for coal powered plants are on the rise. The growth in coal power plants is part of a government effort to lessen reliance on gas supplies from Russia and Iran.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 07.02.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
by Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Gazprom is under pressure from all sides. European energy companies request further gas price discounts, export volumes fell in 2012 and are expected to remain weak in 2013, PM Medvedev suggests that Gazprom’s export monopoly could be revoked, and Gazprom faces criticism from Europe and the United States over its bid for Greece’s state-owned gas utility, DEPA.
• Gazprom slaps Naftogaz with a $7bn bill for failing to purchase sufficient amounts of gas in 2012.
• The Czech section of Nord Steam, Gazelle, is launched as Gazprom CEO, Alexei Miller, declares an expansion of Nord Stream to be ‘feasible’ despite the pipeline operating at well below capacity since its launch
• Gazprom and the Croatian State-owned energy company, Plinacro, to set up a joint venture in mid-2013 for the construction of a spur from South Stream into Croatia, while Serbia is set to grant South Stream ‘national status’
• Gazprom signs an agreement with Novatek to produce LNG on the Yamal Peninsula, with Asia the predicted export destination
• Gazprom lobbies the Russian government for Shtokman tax breaks as the Russian government considers revoking the Gazprom-Rosneft monopoly on offshore gas and oil production in Russia

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 06.02.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 02
01/28/2013
Former Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko has rejected the charges of organizing the murder of politician and businessman Yevhen Shcherban, her daughter Yevheniya said on 22 January 2013. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 30.01.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 01
01/21/2013
Tymoshenko faces charges of organizing murder; life sentence possible.
On 18 January 2013, Prosecutor-General Viktor Pshonka said that Yuliya Tymoshenko and Pavlo Lazarenko, both former prime ministers, were to face charges of organizing a contract killing. He said that the investigation established that Tymoshenko and Lazarenko had paid 2.8m dollars to have politician and businessman Yevhen Shcherban killed in 1996 in a dispute over business interests. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 24.01.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-15 January 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey makes progress on the Kurdish issue, conducting unilateral talks with Abdullah Ocalan. Most Turks appear to support the government’s actions, but the assassination of a PKK co-founder in Paris raises concerns of sabotaging any future agreement.
• The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) begins oil shipments to Turkey while its relationship with Baghdad continues to deteriorate. Moves by the Iraqi government to bring Kirkuk under military control result in Turkey having to take sides in another civil war.
• The Turkish stock market produced positive returns for investors in 2012, well above the losses experienced by the Eurozone and U.S. But concerns rise over growing credit expansion according to Fitch’s latest report.
• Gazprom’s take or pay contracts end, resulting in over $3 billion in savings for Turkey. Meanwhile, the country invests in large scale refinery upgrades that will double its crude refining capacity. Energy Minister Yildiz visits Algeria and Libya to renew one energy deal in the former and promote investment in the latter.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 24.01.2013  |  External Relations
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By Zbiegniew Brzezinski
Reviewed by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF Non-resident fellow on the History of Trans-Atlantic Security

Zbiegniew Brzezinski, an American scholar of Polish origin and former National Security Advisor for President Jimmy Carter, is certainly a prominent figure. Despite his age (Mr. Brzezinski is 86), he still remains one of the most thoughtful and farsighted representatives of the American political establishment. His views on international events and predictions of future developments have always been worthy of careful attention, and now, being semi-retired he can be even more outspoken and critical than before. His most recent monograph, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power (Basic Books, 2012) is certainly subjective but still quite informative, and perhaps, an even revealing analysis of the present world and its prospects in the 21st century. As in any other work on this subject, there are parts which one could approve and greatly appreciate and some other which might be perceived in a more critical way. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 17.01.2013
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