A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• The Lithuanian Supreme Court postpones its hearing of Gazprom’s complaint against the Lithuanian Court of Appeal; RWE Supply and Trading CZ wins a gas price dispute with Gazprom in the Vienna Commercial Court; Gazprom fails to bid for Greece’s gas distribution system operator, DEPA; Gazprom officially announces its plans to construct an LNG export terminal on Russia’s Baltic coast; Gazprom predicts a year-on-year increase in gas exports in 2013
• Gazprom pays Ukraine $1bn in an advance for gas transit fees until 1st of January 2015; Gazprom is not pursuing legal action against Naftogaz Ukraine for failing to meet its ‘take or pay’ commitments; There are no ongoing talks about the establishment of a consortium to manage Ukraine’s gas transportation system (GTS)
• Gazprom continues to examine the potential for a second line of the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Europe via Belarus
• Gazprom confirms that the construction of South Stream’s offshore section will begin in the second quarter of 2014, to be launched in 2015; Collapse of the Nabucco pipeline project clears the way for South Stream in South-East Europe
• Gazprom and GDF Suez agree to explore the possibility of expanding the Nord Stream pipeline
• Gazprom and CNPC aim to sign gas supply contract by the end of 2013; Gazprom and the Japan Far East Gas Co. Ltd sign a Memorandum of Understanding on the latter’s participation in Gazprom’s Vladivostok LNG project.
• Gazprom’s Chairman and Chief Executive are re-elected at the company’s Annual General Meeting; CNPC purchases a 20 percent stake in Novatek’s Yamal LNG project

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.07.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-15 June 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Despite heavy police action to clear Taksim Square, the protests continue.
• Erdogan’s hard line stance towards the demonstrations is opening a rift inside the AKP, with one camp supportive of President Abdullah Gul’s conciliatory approach towards protesters.
• The prime minister hints at foreign and domestic plots behind the Gezi Park situation, making him look increasingly out of touch with the reality on the ground in Istanbul.
• Turkey’s play in Syria falters as Sunni extremists come to the fore of the opposition. Meanwhile Bashar alAssad’s forces secure victories against the fractured opposition.
• Exxon and TPAO in talks to secure an exploration block for shale gas in the Black Sea.
• Tensions in Iraqi Kurdistan ebb as Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki visits Erbil.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.06.2013  |  External Relations
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The Black Sea has lost none of its geopolitical significance over time. Historically, the Black Sea has played an important economic and political role in a wider-region. The realignment of geopolitical and security strategies in Eurasia during the last two decades has led to the “re-discovery” of one of the world’s most significant geostrategic areas. Securing access to new energy deposits from the Caspian has heightened the strategic significance of the Wider Black Sea (WBS) in Western external policy thinking. Unfortunately, since the early 1990s, the region has been bogged down in a belt of protracted conflicts that could potentially threaten both European stability and energy supply, while trans-national crime and other asymmetric security threats are thriving. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.06.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 20
06/17/2013
President Viktor Yanukovych said on 13 June 2013 that he could not see a reason why Ukraine should be deprived of the EU membership prospect. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 19.06.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during May 16-31th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Protests in Istanbul’s Taksim Square erupt over a heavy handed police response and government indifference to the protesters’ demands.
• The protest, while minor in the beginning, has been a spark that has brought hundreds of thousands into the streets across Turkey’s major cities, with anger directed at the leadership of Prime Minister Erdogan.
• International press widely covers the protests, drawing the attention of investors who have until recently been extolling the virtues of AKP governance. Should the unrest continue, Turkey’s impressive economic performance could come to a halt.
• Despite civil unrest, the country’s energy future looks bright as NABUCCO West brings on GDF Suez and Turkmenistan seals an agreement for transit rights across Turkey for natural gas shipments.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 11.06.2013  |  External Relations
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By Sébastien Jadot, Guest Contributor to EGF Middle East and Africa Research

June 2013
Key points:

• Boko Haram challenges Nigeria’s security as well as secularism
• The radicalization of Islam in Nigeria – how did it come about?
• A new role for the Shari’a in Nigeria
• The role of Boko Haram in reviving the ideology of extremism
• Is Boko Haram protected by the Nigerian state?
• Evidence of Boko Haram linkages to regional terror groups emerging
• International response not yet decisive
• It may become more decisive when offshoots of Boko Haram begin to appear

• Sébastien Jadot  |  Published on EGF: 11.06.2013
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ISSUE # 18
06/03/2013
On 31 May 2013, Ukraine signed a memorandum on intensifying cooperation with the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. The Ukrainian side was represented by Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, who signed the document. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 08.06.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 17
05/27/2013
The European Parliament (EP) supports Ukraine's intention to sign the association agreement with the EU this autumn, but expects Kiev to honour the commitments it has undertaken to this end, the chair of the EP Committee on Foreign Affairs, Elmar Brok, said on 23 May 2013. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 07.06.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• The tortuous legal wrangling between Gazprom, the Lithuanian government, and Lithuania’s main gas utility, Lietuvos Dujos, continues; Gazprom set to finalise its bid for Greece’s gas distribution system operator, DEPA; Gazprom could construct Baltic LNG terminal
• Gazprom rejects an invitation to attend a high level ministerial seminar in Brussels on Ukraine’s energy market, which was jointly organised by the European Commission and the Ukrainian energy ministry; Ukraine could cede control over its gas transit pipelines in exchange for guaranteed transit and a gas price discount
• The construction of South Stream in Serbia will begin in late 2013 according to Srbijagas; South Stream Chief Exec, Marcel Kramer, confirms that South Stream is on schedule for financing in early 2014 and construction of the first line in 2015
• Gazprom and CNPC aim to sign a gas supply contract by the end of 2013; Gazprom could lose its export monopoly in the Asia-Pacific region; freight deliveries from Northern Russia to China via the Northern Sea Route demonstrate the possibilities of LNG exports from Northern Russian to the Asia-Pacific region.
• Rosneft steps up the pressure on Gazprom with its buyout of Itera.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 05.06.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 16
05/20/2013
On 15 May 2013, the European Commission supported a proposal regarding an association agreement with Ukraine, passing the decision on to the European Council. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 21.05.2013  |  External Relations
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