Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during September 1-30th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Prime Minister Erdogan announces the long-awaited democratization package. While a step in the right direction, the proposal is lacking with regards to many of the challenges the Republic faces.
• The opposition CHP, MHP and BDP voice disappointment with the prime minister’s proposals, but none have pulled out of negotiations at the Constitution Conciliation Commission thus far. A positive sign, if any, exists.
• Protests continue in the country’s major cities, albeit on a more sporadic basis than those in the summer. Reasons behind each demonstration vary, yet the underlying dissatisfaction with the AKP remains a unifying factor regardless of the location.
• Syria’s civil war shows no sign of ending as infighting continues between the opposition forces.
• Turkey tries a different track, making overtures to the PKK-affiliated PYD despite its connections to the separatist group currently in the midst of a ceasefire with the Turkish government.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 07.10.2013  |  External Relations
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by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security

A Long Western Debate and its Political Consequences
Although Russia has been part of the European system since the Westphalian Treaty of 1648, and after its victory in the Northern War with Sweden and the Nystad Treaty in 1721 started to be seen as of he major powers on the continent, both its internal nature and its role in international politics have often suffered Western doubts and uncertainties. READ MORE

• Andrej Kreutz  |  Published on EGF: 19.09.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during August 16-31st 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• A chemical attack is allegedly launched in Damascus’ suburbs, threatening to elicit a U.S. military response and possibly a wider regional war. Turkey backs the Americans, with Prime Minister Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul saying Bashar al-Assad must go.
• Kurdish fighters in northern Syria establish their own administrative areas in the country while continuing to fight jihadist elements of the Free Syrian Army. Their autonomy may be a flashpoint should Turkey be forced to make a ground incursion into Syria.
• Egypt’s military-backed government continues to snipe back at the Turkish prime minister, who has emerged as its most vocal critic outside of Egypt.
• The poor relations between Ankara and Cairo may be costing Turkey influence and money with regional partners who supported the military putsch that unseated Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.09.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Russia warns EU over anti-monopoly investigation; OMV enters into price-revision talks with Gazprom and Statoil; Gazprom and GDF Suez agree to revise their gas contract; Gazprom’s European exports rise 9.6 percent y-o-y in H1 2013, but net profits fall 35 percent; Gazprom cancels calls for bids to prepare project documentation for the Shtokman project; Gazprom subsidiary to enter the Italian fuel market as Gazprom plans an expansion of its own natural gas vehicle (NGV) market
• Ukraine reduces its imports of Russian gas in favour of supplies from Europe
• Russian Stroytransgas to build the overland sections of South Stream in the Balkans
• No new developments in Gazprom-CNPC negotiations, but Putin’s meeting with the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, at the G20 Summit could add fresh impetus
• Gazprom wins auction for Moscow power generation utility, MOEK

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.09.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-16 August 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Ergenekon case reaches its expected finish, with 19 defendants facing decades in prison. Former Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug, faces life for his role in the conspiracy.
• The timing of the case’s conclusion with the recent military overthrow of Egypt’s democratically elected government appears to be a message to Turkey’s generals.
• Outside of the AKP camp, critics rounded on the lack of plausibility regarding the evidence and cast of players.
• Parliament’s Constitutional Commission speeds up its work, adding protections for women, children, and homosexuals to the draft document.
• Turkey’s economy slows as foreign investment pulls back from emerging markets.
• Yet the long term investment possibilities, specifically in the energy infrastructure sector, appear to be a solid bet.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.09.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 16-31, 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• The Kurdish PYD seizes several towns in Syria’s northwest, ejecting Islamist groups from a Turkish border crossing.
• Turkey reaches out to the PYD, whose leader visits and meets with the country’s political and military representatives.
• Reporters Without Borders drops Turkey to 154 in its press freedom index.
• The PKK and AKP snipe at one another about adherence to the ceasefire. Progress on adjustment to legislation intended to ameliorate the Kurdish dilemma must be made soon, otherwise the momentum and dialogue gains made during recent months might slip away.
• Turkey’s energy import payments decreased in early 2013, while plans for a proposed nuclear plant are rejected by the Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning.
• Genel reports that the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq will have its own export pipeline by 2014. It remains to be seen what the next move of the Iraqi Government will be.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.08.2013  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Lietuvos Dujos prepares to extend its current gas supply contract with Gazprom in exchange for lower prices and offtake commitments; Gazprom to amend its gas supply contract with RWE following Vienna arbitration ruling; Edison is next in line for arbitration with Gazprom following the RWE ruling; Gazprom announces an upward revision of its 2013 gas export forecast and a 29 percent increase in gas exports to Europe in July 2013 versus the same period in 2012
• Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukraine reach agreement on reliable gas transit via Ukraine for winter 2013-14
• The Armenian government considers handing over its remaining stake in the country’s natural gas monopoly to Gazprom in exchange for lower prices; Gazprom acquires Kyrgyzstan’s natural gas monopoly, Kyrgyzgaz, and pledges substantial investment
• The Bulgarian section of South Stream faces delays over environmental reports and construction permits, but Gazprom remains adamant that the project will be completed on schedule; Macedonia to get South Stream branch
• Gazprom Germania decides against new UGSF in Triepkendorf, but continues to investigate the possibility of new gas storage facilities near Nord Stream’s landfall; Gazprom continues to press for full use of the OPAL pipeline in Germany; Nederlandse Gasunie complains about the quality of Russian gas delivered via Nord Stream
• Gazprom takes delivery of second LNG tanker for the delivery of gas to the Asia-Pacific via the Northern Sea Route
• Rosneft increases gas production by 186 percent versus H1 2012, providing further competition for Gazprom in the Russian gas sector; The International Energy Agency (IEA) voices its support for a shift from oil-indexed to spot gas prices; Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering wins tender for up to 16 ice-class LNG tankers for the Yamal LNG project; Moscow hosts the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.08.2013  |  External Relations
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ISSUE # 24
07/15/2013
Ukraine is not ready at the moment to sign the association agreement with the EU, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius said on 8 July 2013. On 10 July, Linkevicius also stated that Lithuania questioned Ukraine's ability to meet the criteria put forward by the EU for signing the association agreement at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 02.08.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during 1-15 July 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Turkey’s Parliament recesses for the summer break, having pushed through several pieces of legislation at the last hour. The most divisive of these aimed at stripping the power of the influential architects’ union, which supported the Taksim Square protests.
• Progress is slow on the new constitution. The CHP accuses Prime Minister Erdogan of only wanting to blame the opposition on the glacial nature of the new document in order to make himself president.
• The PKK reshuffles its leadership, but the head of the group’s armed wing warns the Turkish government to take immediate steps to show it is committed to the peace agreement.
• Turkey’s backing of moderate rebel fighters in Syria has not turned the tide in the country as Salafist groups with Gulf backers gain influence in the opposition.
• The growing numbers of Syrian refugees pose a grave threat to Turkey’s own domestic tranquillity.
• Completion nears on a northern oil pipeline between Turkey and the Kurdish Regional Government that will connect with the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan line, all at the expense of Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 19.07.2013  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during June 16-30th 2013
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

Key Points:

• Germany again blocks Turkey’s EU accession negotiations, citing the AKP government’s response to the Taksim Square protests.
• Turkey’s leading official in charge of EU negotiations criticizes German Chancellor Angela Merkel over the matter.
• Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan continues assertions that foreign powers are at play behind the protest movement.
• A lack of evidence to this assertion, and the obvious lack of a “Deep State” that he subdued continues to make Erdogan look like a leader proffering conspiracy theories rather than listening to protesters demands.
• NABUCCO (West) meets its end when Shah Deniz Consortium chooses TAP pipeline project on June 28.
• NABUCCO’s end is a result of over a decade of rising cost and changing geopolitical positions of the stakeholders involved.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 09.07.2013  |  External Relations
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