By Anna Ohanyan, EGF Affiliated Expert on South Caucasus region building

There is much enthusiasm among researchers and policymakers alike concerning the pacifying effects of trade and broader interdependence among states. The European Union is an often cited example of greater regional integration as a way to enhance peace and security among neighboring states. This comparative regional study draws from the cases of the Balkans and South Caucasus in order (1) to offer a descriptive account of patterns and processes of regionalism in politically divided conflict areas, and (2) to examine the extent to which such regional engagement can positively affect ongoing conflict management efforts in a given conflict region. The study advocates promoting regional structures as a new and potentially effective approach to peace-building and security enhancement, toward managing the many 'frozen conflicts' both in the Balkans as well as in the South Caucasus. READ MORE

• Anna Ohanyan  |  Published on EGF: 15.01.2013  |  External Relations
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By George Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

Why use the OSCE to take a “jibe” at you know who ?

When on 6 December 2012, in the margins of the OSCE ministerial meeting in Dublin, the US state secretary Ms. Hillary Clinton warned about "a new effort by oppressive governments to "re-Sovietize" much of Eastern Europe and Central Asia" , many observers of Eurasian affairs might have wondered why she lashed out at Russia just before meeting foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss the Syrian crisis. READ MORE

• George Niculescu  |  Published on EGF: 08.01.2013  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during December 1-31th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• Turkey receives permission to post NATO’s Patriot missile batteries in the country’s south to combat potential attacks from Syrian Scuds
• The potential of Kurdish-Arab splits in the Syrian civil war continue to drag Ankara further into the deteriorating situation in the country.
• The Central Bank begins implementing a plan to protect the country’s banks from risky investment, while the government’s monetary policy seeks to ease inflation caused by expanding domestic credit availability.
• Prime Minister Erdogan’s presence sparks protests at an Istanbul university, with the ensuing violence
• employed as a “stick” with which to beat the ruling AKP by opposition parties.
• Erdogan’s office reportedly tapped; prime minister claims by the Deep State. However a lack of definitive perpetrators leaves many questions as to the validity to the claims.
• KRG Prime Minister Barzani assures U.S. on proposed Turk-Kurd pipeline, claims disputes with Baghdad should remain in the economic, not political realm.
• Shah Deniz II considers buying into Nabucco West, while Ukraine responds to South Stream by exploring a potential membership in TANAP.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 31.12.2012  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Reports claim that Gazprom plans lower European gas export prices for 2013 in a bid to compete with spot price contracts, while Russian officials continue to press for exemptions from the Third Energy Package for Nord Stream and South Stream
• Sources report that Gazprom could lower its gas export price for Ukraine for 2013 from the predicted $421 per thousand cubic metres to $352, as Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovich, announces a last-minute postponement of his meeting with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow to discuss Russian-Ukrainian energy relations
• Gazprom holds a ceremony to mark the start of the construction of South Stream, but the EU remains sceptical about the implementation of the project due to the lack of necessary assessments and permits
• The Estonian government refuses permission for Nord Stream AG to conduct research in Estonia’s territorial waters, as part of plans for Nord Stream’s proposed expansion
• Gazprom’s second-largest European customer, Turkey, proposes increasing its Russian gas imports by 3 bcm ‘in the near future’
• Gazprom restarts high-level talks with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) over Russian gas deliveries to China, with the two sides united by a focus on the Altai pipeline, but divided over gas prices
• Two months after missing out to Rosneft on a lucrative deal to supply gas to Russian electricity utility, Inter RAO, Novatek signs a $4bn deal to supply 27 bcm to Moscow-based electricity generator, Mosenergo, as Gazprom loses more of the domestic Russian gas market

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 31.12.2012  |  External Relations
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Special Edition
12/24/2012
On 24 December 2012, President Viktor Yanukovych appointed a new cabinet chaired by Mykola Azarov.
The first deputy prime minister (overseeing agricultural policy, economy, trade, social policy, finance, earnings and levies), Serhiy Arbuzov (previously the governor of the National Bank of Ukraine). READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 26.12.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #49
12/18/2012
On 13 December 2012, the European Parliament issued a resolution calling on the Ukrainian authorities to respect and implement the final rulings of the European Court of Human Rights on the cases of Yuliya Tymoshenko and Yuriy Lutsenko. It also said Ukraine needed to reform its judiciary and improve its electoral legislation. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 19.12.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #48
12/10/2012
European Commissioner for Enlargement Stefan Fuele said on 4 December 2012 that seven EU member states, including Great Britain, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Italy and Spain, insist on Ukraine meeting the previously announced political conditions before an association agreement is signed. Meanwhile, Poland and Lithuania want the document signed as soon as possible. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 12.12.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during November 16-30th 2012
By John VanPool, EGF Turkey and Black Sea Regional Analyst

• Turkey requests Patriot missile defense systems from NATO out of fears of Syria launching WMD-tipped rockets at opposition fighters along the border.
• Prime Minister Erdogan’s anti-Israel stance gains him credibility in the Muslim world while alienating him from opportunities to help solve the Israeli-Palestinian situation.
• Investigations continue into the 1993 death of then-president Turgut Ozal. Although unrelated to the country’s current problems, a history of “Deep State” involvement in the government created a country where conspiracy theories fester.
• The AKP conducts an internal discussion on the possibility of revoking immunity from MPs which would specifically affect Kurdish BDP deputies.
• BOTAS raises prices on gas sold for domestic electricity supplies, while Gazprom seals long term export deals with four private Turkish firms.
• ENI continues to worry about its future in Turkey following the row over Cyprus, and TANAP is ratified by Azerbaijan’s parliament.
• In Iraq, Erdogan and al-Maliki trade barbs over the widening rift between the KRG and Baghdad.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 10.12.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #47
12/03/2012
An association agreement between Ukraine and the EU may be signed during the Eastern Partnership summit in November 2013, the news and analysis web portal Lb.ua has quoted European Commissioner for Enlargement Stefan Fule as saying on 29 November 2012. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 05.12.2012  |  External Relations
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A Snapshot of Key Developments in the External Relations of the Russian Gas Sector
By Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher on the external dimensions of Russian gas

Key points:

• Gazprom announces an agreement with Poland’s PGNiG to adjust gas prices and signs an asset-swap deal with BASFT Wintershall, but remains under pressure in Europe due to falling export volumes and the EU antimonopoly investigation
• Ukraine continues to press for reduced imports of Russian gas and receives first deliveries from RWE
• Gazprom appears set to expand its underground gas storage facilities and gas transmission capacity in Belarus
• Slovenia and Bulgaria confirm their final investment decisions for the South Stream project, as Gazprom’s partners also take the final investment decision on the offshore section, while Gazprom signs a new gas supply contract with Bulgargaz
• Turkish regulators approve Gazprom’s new long-term supply contracts with private Turkish energy companies
• Gazprom demonstrates the potential for shipping LNG from Europe to Japan as it charters the first LNG supertanker to traverse the Arctic during winter
• Novatek acquires 49 percent of Northgas, with Gazprom retaining its 51 percent stake in the company

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 04.12.2012  |  External Relations
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