What Next in Nagorno Karabakh By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
On September 19, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale offensive against the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh Republic with only one goal: to finish with that republic. The Azerbaijani attack was not a surprise to anyone. At least since the beginning of 2023, Azerbaijan has stated clearly and loudly that Baku will not tolerate the status quo that emerged after the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war and will do everything possible to destroy the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. Azerbaijan was also clear that it would reach its goal quickly. Since the beginning of September 2023, as Azerbaijan started to concentrate troops along the line of contact, it was clear the military offensive would take place very soon. Armenia knew that Russia knew that, the EU and the US knew that, and Nagorno Karabakh authorities knew that. What were the positions of the sides regarding the upcoming offensive of Azerbaijan?
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 25.09.2023
| Security
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Azerbaijan Moves to Disarm Karabakh Separatists (Part One) By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On September 19, the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry announced it had launched an “anti-terrorist” operation against “illegal formations” in Karabakh. This move came after four Azerbaijani soldiers and two civilians were killed by land mines in the region. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan condemned the “full-scale aggression” and denounced Russian peacekeepers for “failing to do their jobs’.
The recent fighting comes as tensions had been mounting over Baku’s efforts to fully integrate Karabakh back into Azerbaijan. This measure had been stipulated in the tripartite agreement signed by Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia following the end of the Second Karabakh War in November 2020. Russian peacekeepers were stationed in the region to facilitate implementation of the measure; yet, they have done little since to constructively manage the process.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 25.09.2023
| Security
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The Geopolitical Background of the Moscow-Yerevan Rift and Russia’s Future in the Region By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
Recent geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus have once again appeared in the headlines of media and analytical centers. Experts have been questioning whether Russia is distancing itself from the region. Armenian regional experts and officials have been questioning Russia’s motives in the region, considering developments in Artsakh and the latest Azerbaijani escalation. Russia is navigating the narrow complexities of the post-2020 Artsakh War regional architecture, asserting itself as the main power broker in the region (i.e. brokering the 2020 trilateral ceasefire agreement, arranging humanitarian aid to Artsakh via the Berdzor Corridor and Aghdam, and possibly a new deal in the coming days) through compromise or political flexibility. This flexibility has caused friction in Moscow-Yerevan relations.
Many in Russia, including high officials, are suspicious of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s motives towards their country. The Armenian leader has speculated that Russia seems to be leaving the region. However, Russia still views the region as “blizhnee zarubezhe” (its “near abroad”) or its “lebensraum” (its “vital space”). From Russia’s perspective, if it leaves the South Caucasus, its only route to the Middle East would be cut off, Iran and Turkey would clash for power, and the North Caucasus would become vulnerable to instability.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 25.09.2023
| Security
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“UZBEKISTAN - 2030” Strategy - Helps to Promote Systematic Reforms By Eldor TULYAKOV, Executive Director of the Development Strategy Center
On September 11, 2023, the Decree of the President of Uzbekistan on the “Uzbekistan-2030” Strategy was adopted. One hundred essential goals in 5 priority areas are reflected in the Strategy.
Most importantly, the Strategy was developed based on the results of the experience gained, international expertise and public discussions.
It is worth noting that the Strategy includes such essential ideas as becoming one of the high and middle-income countries through stable economic growth, organizing education, medical and social protection system that fully meets the requirements of the population and international standards, creating favourable environmental conditions for the population, a fair and modern state at service of the people, ensuring the country’s sovereignty and security.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 18.09.2023
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Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Brink of Renewed Conflict By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On September 9, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan spoke on the phone with the leaders of France, Iran, Georgia and Germany, as well as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. In a manner that resembled his outreach to various world leaders at the beginning of the Second Karabakh War (September 7–November 10, 2020), the Armenian premier warned against intensifying tensions in the region and stated his readiness for immediate talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev without preconditions. Pashinyan’s words came on the heels of several setbacks that threaten to derail Armenian-Azerbaijani peace negotiations and may lead to another military conflict.
Both sides accuse each other of a military build-up along their shared border in preparation for an offensive. According to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, a military threat also emanates from the continued presence of Armenian troops in Karabakh, despite Yerevan’s earlier pledge to withdraw them by September 2022.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 15.09.2023
| Security
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Geopolitical Initiatives: The Example Of BRICS By Nika CHITADZE, PhD, Director of the Center for International Studies, Tbilisi
BRICS is an acronym for the top five emerging (except Russia) economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The first four were originally grouped as “BRIC” (or “BRIC”) in 2001, and South Africa joined in 2010. BRICS was created to draw attention to investment opportunities and was not an official intergovernmental organization. Since 2009, they have increasingly evolved into a more cohesive geopolitical bloc, with governments meeting annually at official summits and coordinating multilateral policies. On July 24, 2022, China hosted the 14th BRICS summit and in August 2023, the summit was held in South Africa.
BRICS is considered the main rival of the G7 bloc of advanced economies, having announced competing initiatives such as the New Development Bank, the Contingent Reserve Facility, the BRICS payment system, and the BRICS reserve currency. Since 2022, the group has been looking to expand membership and several developing countries have expressed interest in joining.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 15.09.2023
| External Relations
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Avoiding another War in Karabakh By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
It seems that talks over the future of Nagorno Karabakh have reached an impasse. Azerbaijan claims there will be no Nagorno Karabakh inside Azerbaijan, and Armenians should live as ordinary Azerbaijani citizens. At the same time, those who do not want to accept this option should leave. Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh categorically reject this option, meanwhile stating that they will not leave their homeland. […] Currently, it is challenging to offer an option that may more or less satisfy both Azerbaijan and NKR. However, one thing is clear: new large-scale war in Nagorno Karabakh will make long-term peace and stability in the South Caucasus a pipe dream. Thus, all actors interested in a stable region should message Azerbaijan that a new war against Nagorno Karabakh is not the best option to move forward. Otherwise, the region will plunge into another decade of instability, destruction, and human suffering.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 13.09.2023
| Security
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Azerbaijan needs to provide its vision on the future of Karabakh Armenians By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
As the humanitarian crisis deepens in the self-proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh Republic and tens of thousands of people have found themselves in a daily struggle to get basic food, hygiene products, and other goods, discussions are underway in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and within the international community about ways out. Azerbaijan has its vision of the situation. According to Baku, if the international community, including Armenia, recognizes Nagorno Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, then no one should reject supplying goods to Nagorno Karabakh from Azerbaijan. Many in Baku view this option as the first step towards the gradual reintegration of Nagorno Karabakh into Azerbaijan's economic and later political sphere.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 30.08.2023
| Security
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What does ISIS’s revival mean for the South Caucasus? By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
The socio-economic crisis was one of the causes of the disintegration of centralized governments in Syria and Iraq in 2011 and the emergence of radical militants in rural areas. These militants were motivated by anger towards the urban elite, who for decades neglected rural areas. As civil wars and political instability hit Syria and Iraq, many young rural people were recruited by these groups, who were financed by regional countries or non-state actors. In 2013, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was founded with the aim to establish an Islamic kingdom (caliphate) in the region. […] After the dissolution of ISIS in late 2019, the movement went underground, yet today it is taking advantage of the financial crisis in Syria and making a comeback.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 30.08.2023
| Security
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Turkey’s Pivot West Disrupts Relations With Russia
By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
On July 9, Turkey freed the commanders of the well-known Ukrainian Azov regiment after months of hosting them as a part of a deal with Russia. The fighters surrendered to Russian forces after weeks of brutal siege and resistance at the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol, even after the rest of the city had fallen following Russia’s devastating and relentless assaults. Ankara’s surprise move came during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first official visit to Turkey since the Russian invasion in February 2022 to meet his counterpart, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and discuss the possibilities of deepening their strategic partnership. Amid rhetoric on expanding the two countries’ cooperation in defense and security, Erdogan also declared, “Ukraine deserves to be a NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] member”.
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- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 04.08.2023
| External Relations
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