Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
January 2012

Key Points:

• Russia’s Gazprom announces that the South Stream gas pipeline project will begin construction ahead of schedule in December 2012, putting NABUCCO in an increasingly precarious position.
• Turkey slips further down the rankings of the media watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, press freedom rankings, now 148 out of 178 countries. This development comes following the fifth anniversary of the killing of writer Hrant Dink and a ruling in the case of his death stating that it was not the result of organized crime.
• Former Turkish Military (TSK) Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug, was arrested on charges of supporting websites that were part of a conspiracy to overthrow the government. The military remains quiet on the matter, indicating that the ruling AKP government has triumphed in keeping the TSK under full civilian control. But the wide swath of those accused of complicity in conspiracy investigations continues to draw criticism at home and abroad.
• Both houses of the French parliament pass a law criminalizing the denial of the Armenian genocide, with Turkish politicians voicing their outrage at the decision against a backdrop where relations between Paris and Ankara are at the lowest level in recent memory.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.02.2012  |  Markets
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BSIS, University of Kent, Brussels, 8 December 2011 Provisional summary of seminar findings

By Dr Marat Terterov and Mr. George Vlad Niculescu, European Geopolitical Forum, Brussels

On December 8 2011, The European Geopolitical Forum staged a seminar on the topic “The Unresolved Conflicts in the South Caucasus: Implications for European and Eurasian Integration” at the University of Kent/Brussels School of International Studies. The seminar represented a concerted attempt by the organizers to provide a platform for a lively and objective roundtable debate where experts of different orientations would have the opportunity to engage in a frank exchange of positions on the highly sensitive subject matter of South Caucasus unresolved conflicts. In contrast to many events taking place in Brussels, the organizers of the December 8 seminar did not have the objective of taking sides in political disputes, or seeking to promote the merits of one side at the expense of the other. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 17.02.2012  |  External Relations
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In a recent interview for "The Voice of Russia", EGF Expert on Radical Islamic Movements, Mikhail Roshchin, explained the political dynamics emerging between Islamist and secular political parties in Egypt following recent parliamentary elections. His key message for all stakeholders engaged in the formation of new governance institutions in Egypt was that the Muslim Brotherhood, which now forms the largest political bloc in Egypt's new parliament, is more likely to broker political deals with secular parties rather than develop any sense of "ideological alliances" with other, more radical, Islamist factions. This will most likely remove the concerns over "new shades of green" emerging in the ensuing Egyptian political landscape and lead to further fragmentation of the political environment in advance of the country's looming presidential elections, which are currently scheduled for June 2012. Click HERE for the entire interview.
 

• M. Roshchin  |  Published on EGF: 16.02.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #4
02/06/2012
Ukraine's ruling Party of Regions has refused to decriminalize the articles of the Ukrainian Criminal Procedures Code under which former Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko was convicted. On 31 January 2012, the Party of Regions parliamentary faction's head, Oleksandr Yefremov, said that his party had no intention to consider the decriminalization of Article 364 entitled “Abuse of power or position” and Article 365 which deals with exceeding one's power or authority. These are the articles under which Yuliya Tymoshenko was sentenced to seven years behind bars. “The faction did not take other decisions,” the politician explained. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 14.02.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #5
02/13/2012
On 9 February 2012, the Ukrainian parliament adopted in the first reading a presidential draft of the Criminal Procedure Code (CPC). The Ukrainian news and analysis website Lb.ua reported that the presidential draft of the CPC was registered in parliament on 13 January 2012. A group of lawmakers headed by presidential advisor Andriy Portnov has been working on it for a year and a half. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 14.02.2012  |  External Relations
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Within the framework of the IMEMO’s Oil and Gas Dialog Forum BP's chief economist Christof Rühl presented BP Energy Outlook 2030 to the audience of the Russian academics It was stressed that the outlook’s ‘base case’ reflects a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ assessment of the world’s likely path from today’s vantage point, drawing on expertise both within and outside the company. The outlook highlights the growing role of developing economies in global energy consumption, and the increasing share of non-fossil fuels in global energy supply. It emphasizes the central role markets and well-designed policy can play to meet the dual challenge of solving the energy needs of billions of people who aspire to better lifestyles, and doing so in a way that is sustainable and secure. It also notes the uncertainties attached to any long term projection. The discipline of building a numerical projection sharpens our thinking, but the precise numbers are less important than the underlying story of the challenges we all face and the choices we make in producing and consuming energy. To read the report please click EGF or BP

• BP  |  Published on EGF: 08.02.2012  |  Energy
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ISSUE #3
01/30/2012
A new criminal case which was launched against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko will be submitted to a court in the near future.
The Ukrainian news and analysis website Lb.ua cited Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych as saying in Davos on 27 January 2011 that the criminal cases over the corporation United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU), which had been opened against former Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko would be submitted for a court's consideration in the near future. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 06.02.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #2
01/23/2012
On 20 January 2012, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov has said that Ukraine and Russia are nearing the final stage of gas negotiations.
At the same time, he stressed that Ukraine considers the setting up of a trilateral consortium for managing the gas transportation system the only possible option. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 06.02.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #1
01/16/2011
The next round of the gas talks between Ukrainian Energy and Coal Industry Minister Yuriy Boyko and Gazprom's CEO Aleksey Miller will be held in Moscow on 17 January. The Ukrainian news and analysis website Lb.ua quoted Miller as telling Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on 10 January 2012 that in the process of the negotiations, the Ukrainian party was linking a gas price discount to the setting up of a gas transportation consortium between the two countries. According to Miller, if Ukraine purchases 40bn cu.m. of gas, the discount will be 9bn dollars annually. At the same time, the Gazprom CEO said that the Ukrainian gas transportation system is worth 20bn dollars. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 06.02.2012  |  External Relations
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Karabakh conflict

Angela Khachatryan, the Zhamanak (Time), www.1in.am portal (Armenia)
- Mr. Terterov, what effect can the crisis in Europe have on the countries of association partners to the EU, of which Armenia is one?

MT: I think the main point to take here is the question of whether countries in the EU’s Eastern Partnership framework, or those coming into the wider-European Neighbourhood context, are a priority for EU external relations strategies. Clearly, some countries come higher up the EU pegging order than others. This also depends on which EU member states holds important positions in the EU institutions, including the rotational presidency of the Council of the European Union, and the foreign policy strategies which those countries entertain. Clearly, when France holds the presidency, one can assume that greater EU external policy resources will be directed towards the South Bank Mediterranean countries. This is also likely to be the case even more so now with the EU having to show its “interest” in the region in way of developments associated with the Arab Spring. When Poland, for example, holds the presidency, it is likely greater EU foreign policy resources will be directed towards Ukraine and Belarus. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 05.02.2012  |  External Relations
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