Issue 7: June-July 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

This year, Gazprom is likely to report an income of about $60 billion from the export of 158 bcm of gas to Europe, according to expert estimates. This represents a 12 percent growth in income compared to the previous year and, according to Alexander Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Gazprom’s Board of Executive Directors, the company’s profits will be close to the record-breaking levels of 2008, when its income from exports reached $65 bn. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.08.2011  |  Energy
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 2011
Key developments:

• Turkey is shaken by the abrupt early retirement of the four highest-ranking military officials in the country just prior to the August meeting of the Supreme Military Council. The generals’ resignations, requesting retirement, are in protest at the continued detention of military officers as part of the “Sledgehammer” coup plot investigation.
  
• The domestic political scene calms as the Republican People’s Party (CHP) ends its parliamentary boycott, although the “independent” Peace and Democratic Party (BDP) delegates continue to refuse to be sworn in.
  
• Despite the fact that over 10,000 Syrians have crossed the border and sought refuge in Turkey, in July Ankara maintained a muted stance towards the Syrian crackdown as no viable alternative to the Assad regime has emerged.
  
• Iran, Syria and Iraq announce the Islamic Gas Pipeline project that will compete with Nabucco, while Turkey and Azerbaijan continue to argue over energy issues that could threaten the progress of the Nabucco gas pipeline
  

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.08.2011  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 2011

Key Points:

• Turkey is shaken by the abrupt early retirement of the four highest-ranking military officials in the country just prior to the August meeting of the Supreme Military Council. The generals’ resignations, requesting retirement, are in protest at the continued detention of military officers as part of the “Sledgehammer” coup plot investigation.
• The domestic political scene calms as the Republican People’s Party (CHP) ends its parliamentary boycott, although the “independent” Peace and Democratic Party (BDP) delegates continue to refuse to be sworn in.
• Despite the fact that over 10,000 Syrians have crossed the border and sought refuge in Turkey, in July Ankara maintained a muted stance towards the Syrian crackdown as no viable alternative to the Assad regime has emerged.
• Iran, Syria and Iraq announce the Islamic Gas Pipeline project that will compete with Nabucco, while Turkey and Azerbaijan continue to argue over energy issues that could threaten the progress of the Nabucco gas pipeline.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.08.2011  |  External Relations
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The timing of this conference could not have been more appropriate, and backdrop relevant. The Arab Spring that has spread across the Middle East and North Africa highlights Turkey’s growing importance in the region and the role it can play in facilitating transition to democratic governance throughout these regions. Turkey is a secular and democratic state, and yet there has been much discussion about Turkey’s renewed ties with its neighbours. It has been viewed, by some, as evidence of Turkey turning away from its traditional alliances with the West. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.07.2011  |  External Relations
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Turkey's 17th general election was never an election about who would win; it was a foregone conclusion that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) would do that and that Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in his final term as the prime minister, would be given not only the mandate to govern but also the moral authority to forge Turkey’s future in the next four years and, arguably, beyond. READ MORE

• By Mehmet Ogutcu, Formely Turkish Diplomat, Head of OECD Global Forum and currently Multinational Executive and Sir David Logan, Former UK Ambassador to Turkey and Chairman of British Institute in Ankara  |  Published on EGF: 21.07.2011  |  Security
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There is a certain understanding amongst Middle East politics experts that a game breaking event of cataclysmic proportions hits the region once every ten years or so. September of this year will mark the 10th anniversary of the unimaginable acts of terrorism which were perpetrated in New York in September 2001 by Arab suicide bombers.

• Dr. Marat Terterov  |  Published on EGF: 18.07.2011  |  External Relations
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Like all revolutionary movements, the Arab Awakening burst upon the world in early 2011 both with breathtaking suddenness and as an overdue response to long-neglected societal tensions. Almost overnight, authoritarian leaders were swept from power on a wave of mass - but notably peaceful - demonstrations calling for change. READ MORE

• Huseyn Gun  |  Published on EGF: 18.07.2011  |  Security
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Insights into Turkish domestic and international politics during June 2011

Key Points:

• Despite the fact that the ruling AKP did not gain the electoral majority it requiredto unilaterally re-write the country’s constitution, the party continues to be the overwhelmingly dominant player in the Turkish political landscape.


• As was inevitably the case with Turkey’s position towards Libya following prolonged civil conflict in the country, Ankara’s position towards Syria is slowly but surely adjusting towards a tougher stance


• Turkey continues to keep one foot in Nabucco’s door, and the other in bilateral energy arrangements with neighbouring states. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 14.07.2011  |  External Relations
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By Naim Ameur,
Senior Manager, Prime Ministry of Tunisia
EGF Affiliated Expert on Maghreb politics

Tunisia embarks upon the process of transition to democracy

It is now a well established fact amongst both the general public as well as the specialist of Middle Eastern politics that Tunisia under the almost-quarter century long rule of former President, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, was managed by a highly restrictive and rather authoritarian political system. The system empowered key pro-regime political instruments such as the Constitutional Democratic Rally simultaneously to ensuring that opposition political parties remained largely powerless or even being loyal to the regime. Other regime opponents, such as Tunisia’s Islamists, found themselves in exile and for the most part expelled from the country. While this is not surprising, given the dearth of democratic political culture in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), this likewise ensured that the country remained a “political wasteland” under its former president, who created what some local scholars now refer to as “political desertification”. READ MORE

• Naim Ameur  |  Published on EGF: 11.07.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #23
06/27/2011
On 24 June 2011, the Kiev Pecherskyy district court started a preliminary hearing of the criminal case against Ukrainian opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko. She is accused of abusing power, which allegedly took place when she signed gas contracts with Russia in 2009. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 29.06.2011  |  External Relations
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