The Gorshenin Institute has conducted an opinion poll asking experts to answer the following question: “Why are Ukrainian Students Less Proud of their Country than their Contemporaries in Poland, Russia and Kazakhstan?”. The Kyiv-based Gorshenin Institute carried out the “Students – an image of the Future” research in 2011. The survey was taken among young people in Ukraine, Russia, Poland and Kazakhstan. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 10.05.2011  |  External Relations
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Key Points for Policy Makers:

• The crisis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is demonstrating that it is high time for Brussels to re- think its strategy towards the countries of the south bank of the Mediterranean
• EU political initiatives in MENA have often focused on democratisation capacity building, when most of the grievances which sparked this year’s revolts on the Arab street have been predominantly socio-economic in character
• Brussels needs to devise effective mechanisms to overcome divisiveness in the narrow priorities of individual member states if it is to become a credible force in the sphere of international crisis management. It also needs to improve its early warning crisis prevention and detection instruments – or develop such capacities
• MENA remains clouded by substantial uncertainty. There is no guarantee that democracy will emerge in the recently “liberated” MENA countries. However, Turkey might be able to offer such countries a credible model of democratic growth.
• Any major disruption in the supply of energy from the Middle East to international markets, as a result of the ongoing protests and civil conflict in the region, is unlikely
• A general realignment may be starting to take place in the Caspian and Central Asian energy markets: Russian may be losing its grip over the region

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 02.05.2011  |  External Relations
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IMF Minimizes Stakeholders’ Risks Demanding Pension Reform in Ukraine – Experts

The Gorshenin Institute has polled experts to learn the prospects of pension reform in Ukraine and whether it will be possible to receive the next tranche from the IMF by not changing pension legislation. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 02.05.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #15
05/02/2011
Ukraine believes that the negotiations with Russia on revising the gas price formula will be successful, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov has said. “We have started normal talks with Russia. We put very serious arguments on the negotiating table. Russia considered them and that is why the negotiations were really good,” he explained. At the same time, Azarov noted that Ukraine did not ask Russia for any preferential treatment or discounts. “We ask for a general European approach to price formation,” he explained. According to the prime minister, the very fact that the negotiations have been launched signals “clear success.” Meanwhile, Gazprom's official representative, Sergey Kupriyanov, stated once again that the Russian gas monopolist was satisfied with the contract with Ukraine. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 02.05.2011  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #14
04/25/2011
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has said that Ukraine is not conducting negotiations on entering the Customs Union (CU) of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. “We are not in the process of negotiations with the CU,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Hryshchenko said in Parliament. He added that Ukraine had agreements on a free trade area (FTA) with each individual state member of the CU. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  External Relations
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A snapshot of Turkey’s domestic and regional politics during April 2011

Key Points:

• Turkish leaders continue to navigate the ongoing “Arab Spring”, this time as it moves to Turkish borders with protests engulfing Syria.
• Turkey’s record with press freedom remains under scrutiny, as the NGO, Journalists Without Borders, condemns the country in the run-up to the June 12 elections.
• The political situation in Turkey’s southeast remains volatile, with the Turkish military breaking up large scale protests by Kurdish demonstrators in the city of Hakkari on April 25
• Suggestions by finance experts allude to the overheating of the Turkish economy, while the Turkish Central Bank’s new head moves to quell such speculation.
• The Turkish Prime Minister announces plans for an Istanbul canal that some experts say could replace the need for the country’s participation in the EU-driven NABUCCO gas pipeline project

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  External Relations
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Ukrainians fear accidents at NPPs, − poll

A telephone poll was conducted by Gorshenin Institute on April 18 – 20, 2011, on the subject: “25 years after the Chernobyl NPP accident”. Overall 1000 respondents 18 years old and older were interviewed, based on a random sample, in all regional capitals of Ukraine, in Kyiv and Sevastopol. Regions of residence, gender and age of the respondents were used as quotas. The representation error of the poll does not exceed +/-3.2%. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Institute  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  External Relations
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Issue 5: April 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

On April 25 of this year Gazprom head, Alexei Miller, predicted that the price of gas sold to European gas consumers would increase to $500 per 1,000 cubic metres by the end of 2011. This suggests a price hike of almost 40 percent as currently the average European gas price is $350 per 1,000 cubic metres. While Gazprom officials do make public references to limitations to increases in the gas price, most such comments tend to refer to Russian domestic gas prices. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  Energy
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Issue 4: March 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

The dispute between the Lithuanian Government and Gazprom continues. As we wrote in the preceding issue of the Gazprom Monitor, the dispute flared up after the Russian monopoly refused to give Vilnius the same gas price discount that it grants to the other Baltic States. Consequently, the Lithuanian side is forced to pay high gas prices. In response, Vilnius is trying to use the implementation of the Third Energy Package, in relation to the gas transport system of the country, as a lever of pressure against Gazprom. In the end this may bring about both a rupture in the agreement on the privatisation of Lietuvos dujos (37 percent of which belongs to Gazprom) and the separation of control over gas transmission pipelines from companies which own them. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 29.04.2011  |  Energy
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By Eugen Iladi, Independent Expert

The dramatic events in Tunisia and Egypt, where long-serving presidents have been ousted within weeks of each other by “street-led people’s revolts”, are inspiring demonstrators in other Muslim countries to demand structural political change. Libya is currently gripped by deep political crisis, as is the tiny Gulf Monarchy of Bahrain, whilst revolts are ongoing in Yemen, Morocco and Iran. Furthermore, Algeria seems to be one of the next countries possibly hanging in the balance, where the prospect of regime change must now be a question of serious concern.
Algeria is a country of vital importance both to the stability of the wider-Maghreb and Sahel-Sahara region as well as to European interests. The country is a major energy supplier to international markets. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national oil and gas champion is crucial to the country's ability to generate public revenues and any disruption would simply lead to more strife in the country. Sonatrach and Algerian oil and gas resources are important not just to Algeria: the European Union's security of energy supplies, U.S. energy interests, as well as Russia's energy investments all stand to suffer if Algeria becomes unreliable. Add to that fears of an Islamist resurgence in the country and, worse, the existing Al Qaeda threat in the Maghreb, and we are witnessing a very volatile concoction in a region not far removed from civil war and unresolved border disputes. READ MORE

• Eugen Iladi  |  Published on EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Security
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