Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
February 2012

Key Points:

• A crisis erupted between state prosecutors and the intelligence service, when members from the latter refused to turn up for questioning regarding an investigation into ties to the PKK. The intervention of prime minister and the parliament have calmed matters for now, but some experts speculate the incident is a result of a break between the AKP and the Gulenist movement.
• Bloodshed in Syria continues while Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu travels to capitals throughout the world in an attempt to drum up support for an UN resolution to stop the violence there. Syrian refugees continue to flood into Turkey’s southern provinces, where the Free Syrian Army is said to be organizing the armed resistance to the regime in Damascus.
• France’s Constitutional Council invalidates the Armenian Genocide draft law passed in January, though both presidential candidates have vowed to push a reworded version upon entering office.
• The cold spell in Turkey shows the weakness in the country’s position as a net importer of gas, while supply issues with Azerbaijan and Iran drastically cut imports amidst increased use in the month. Energy Minister Taner Yildiz met with NABUCCO’s board of partners to discuss the link up of it and TANAP.
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• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.03.2012  |  Markets
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The dynamics of NATO's role in the South Caucasus has been considered against the backdrop of the Wider Black Sea since both geopolitical and policy reasons make the South Caucasus a too narrow geopolitical scope for the analysis of NATO's policies. In fact, in contrast to the situation before the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, the South Caucasus is currently very rarely referred as such in NATO's statements, except for the cases where the Alliance is expressing concerns over the settlement of the "frozen conflicts". READ MORE

• George Vlad Niculescu  |  Published on EGF: 08.03.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #8
03/05/2012
On 27 February 2012, the Kiev Pecherskyy district court sentenced former Ukrainian Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko to four years in prison with property confiscation. The court found the former minister guilty of embezzlement and the appropriation of budget funds, which had inflicted the loss of 85,500 dollars on the state. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 07.03.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #7
02/27/2012
Russia has accused Ukraine of unsanctioned withdrawal of gas intended for Europe. The Ukrainian news and analysis website Lb.ua quoted Gazprom's CEO Aleksey Miller as telling Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev during a meeting on 22 February 2012 that Ukraine had allegedly withdrawn Gazprom's transit gas intended for Europe during the February cold snap. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 29.02.2012  |  External Relations
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Within the framework of the IMEMO’s Oil and Gas Dialog Forum BP's chief economist Christof Rühl presented BP Energy Outlook 2030 to the audience of the Russian academics It was stressed that the outlook’s ‘base case’ reflects a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ assessment of the world’s likely path from today’s vantage point, drawing on expertise both within and outside the company. The outlook highlights the growing role of developing economies in global energy consumption, and the increasing share of non-fossil fuels in global energy supply. It emphasizes the central role markets and well-designed policy can play to meet the dual challenge of solving the energy needs of billions of people who aspire to better lifestyles, and doing so in a way that is sustainable and secure. It also notes the uncertainties attached to any long term projection. The discipline of building a numerical projection sharpens our thinking, but the precise numbers are less important than the underlying story of the challenges we all face and the choices we make in producing and consuming energy. To read the report please click EGF or BP

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.02.2012  |  Energy
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With the support of the Public Diplomacy Division of NATO Headquarters (Brussels) the Region Research Center (Armenia) has started the implementa- tion of the project " The Security of the South Caucasus and NATO" (December 2011 - March 2012). READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.02.2012
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ISSUE #5
02/13/2012
On 9 February 2012, the Ukrainian parliament adopted in the first reading a presidential draft of the Criminal Procedure Code (CPC). The Ukrainian news and analysis website Lb.ua reported that the presidential draft of the CPC was registered in parliament on 13 January 2012. A group of lawmakers headed by presidential advisor Andriy Portnov has been working on it for a year and a half. READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 21.02.2012  |  External Relations
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ISSUE #6
02/20/2012
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has again reshuffled the country's top leadership. On 14 February 2012, the president dismissed Andriy Klyuyev from the post of first deputy prime minister and economy minister and appointed him as secretary of the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC). READ MORE

• Gorshenin Weekly  |  Published on EGF: 21.02.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
January 2012

Key Points:

• Russia’s Gazprom announces that the South Stream gas pipeline project will begin construction ahead of schedule in December 2012, putting NABUCCO in an increasingly precarious position.
• Turkey slips further down the rankings of the media watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, press freedom rankings, now 148 out of 178 countries. This development comes following the fifth anniversary of the killing of writer Hrant Dink and a ruling in the case of his death stating that it was not the result of organized crime.
• Former Turkish Military (TSK) Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug, was arrested on charges of supporting websites that were part of a conspiracy to overthrow the government. The military remains quiet on the matter, indicating that the ruling AKP government has triumphed in keeping the TSK under full civilian control. But the wide swath of those accused of complicity in conspiracy investigations continues to draw criticism at home and abroad.
• Both houses of the French parliament pass a law criminalizing the denial of the Armenian genocide, with Turkish politicians voicing their outrage at the decision against a backdrop where relations between Paris and Ankara are at the lowest level in recent memory.
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• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.02.2012  |  Markets
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BSIS, University of Kent, Brussels, 8 December 2011 Provisional summary of seminar findings

By Dr Marat Terterov and Mr. George Vlad Niculescu, European Geopolitical Forum, Brussels

On December 8 2011, The European Geopolitical Forum staged a seminar on the topic “The Unresolved Conflicts in the South Caucasus: Implications for European and Eurasian Integration” at the University of Kent/Brussels School of International Studies. The seminar represented a concerted attempt by the organizers to provide a platform for a lively and objective roundtable debate where experts of different orientations would have the opportunity to engage in a frank exchange of positions on the highly sensitive subject matter of South Caucasus unresolved conflicts. In contrast to many events taking place in Brussels, the organizers of the December 8 seminar did not have the objective of taking sides in political disputes, or seeking to promote the merits of one side at the expense of the other. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 17.02.2012  |  External Relations
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