By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia


The promise to end the war in Ukraine quickly was one of Donald J. Trump’s main campaign pledges. Upon returning to the White House in January 2025, the president began taking steps toward this goal. The world witnessed a whirlwind of negotiations: face-to-face meetings between Mr. Trump’s envoy, Steven Witkoff, and Russian President Vladimir Putin; multiple phone calls between Mr. Trump and Presidents Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky; direct US–Russia and US–Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia; and a tense meeting in the Oval Office with Mr. Zelensky.
As a result, Russia and Ukraine agreed to suspend attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure for one month. Negotiations are now underway for a broader ceasefire. It is too early to assess the likelihood of a complete and lasting ceasefire — let alone the prospects for a comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 27.03.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On March 6, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel is engaged in discussions with the United States “to establish a strong foundation for trilateral cooperation between Israel, Azerbaijan, and the U.S.”. This statement coincided with debates in the Knesset on “Upgrading the Strategic Alliance between Israel and Azerbaijan”. The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) highlighted Azerbaijan’s role as a “strategic ally in the Caucasus region,” with bilateral cooperation spanning security, trade, technology, and energy. Israeli National Missions Minister Orit Strock, speaking on behalf of the government, emphasized the unique and long-standing friendship between Israel and Azerbaijan. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 27.03.2025  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

With the disintegration of the Syrian state after 2011, the Kurds in northeast Syria became key players in shaping the country’s future. The recent agreement between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) further consolidated their role. However, the future of the Syrian state remains uncertain amid the horrors of the massacres of Alawites on the Syrian coast by radical Islamist factions affiliated with the new administration, Israel’s aspirations to encourage secessionist tendencies among the Druze community in Syria’s south, and Turkey’s strategic interests in Syria, which seem to collide with American- Israeli interests. This article sheds light on the agreement between Syria’s President Ahmad al-Sharaa and SDF General Mazloum Abdi and assess Turkey’s ambitions amid growing domestic and regional uncertainties shaping Syria’s future. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 22.03.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group

Azerbaijan’s strategic location in the South Caucasus, economic potential, and historical ties with Turkic states underscore its regional significance. Positioned as a vital energy corridor, it fosters economic diversification, infrastructure development, and diplomatic engagement with Central Asia. Azerbaijan plays a key role in regional connectivity, humanitarian initiatives, and multilateral cooperation within the Organization of Turkic States, shaping geopolitical dynamics.
Situated at the nexus of Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan’s proximity to significant energy producers and consumers has established it as a vital transit corridor for energy resources. This strategic positioning has not only reinforced Azerbaijan’s centrality in regional energy security but also facilitated avenues for collaboration and partnerships with neighbouring states. In addition to its prominence in the energy sector, Azerbaijan has pursued economic diversification, fostering expertise in fields such as advanced technology, transportation, and tourism. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 08.03.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

Armenia and Azerbaijan remain at an impasse in their ongoing peace process, facing the conditions of withdrawing international lawsuits and agreeing on a ban against third-party military forces along their border. Armenia’s constitutional claims over Karabakh and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group remain sensitive topics. Azerbaijan insists on amending Armenia’s constitution to eliminate future territorial disputes, while Armenia faces legal and political hurdles in making such changes. Disagreements over reopening transportation links further hinder the peace process. Azerbaijan demands an “unimpeded” land passage to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s Meghri region, while Armenia insists on controlled transit. This unresolved dispute continues to block progress toward a final agreement. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 28.02.2025  |  External Relations
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By Daria ISACHENKO, PhD, Associate Researcher, SWP Berlin/ CATS
Franziska SMOLNIK, PhD, Senior Fellow, SWP Berlin

Turkey is a NATO ally, an EU membership candidate, and a confident geopolitical actor. The latter aspect is uppermost in Berlin’s assessment of Ankara’s policy in the South Caucasus, where Turkey’s growing influence is recognised. If they are to make the most of the potential for cooperation, Ankara, and Berlin each need to acknowledge the other’s foreign policy framework and find ways to reconcile Turkey’s autonomous line with Germany’s EU-oriented and often normative approach.
The current state of Turkish foreign policy towards the South Caucasus rather resembles the situation in the Balkans, where “Ankara pursues a parallel, as opposed to an adversarial, strategy to that of the West”. Given that the South Caucasus does not involve sensitive issues such as those that characterise Ankara’s and Berlin’s bilateral relations, nor flashpoints in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean where their positions clearly diverge, it should theoretically be possible for Ankara and Berlin to start exploring areas of cooperation. If that is to happen, a middle ground will need to be found between Turkey’s autonomous action and Germany’s EU-embedded approach. Moreover, Berlin – and Brussels – will have to determine more clearly how to reconcile normative and geopolitical interests. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 22.02.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group

Amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and increasing global trade demands, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), comprising Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, and observer states, has undertaken a transformative Middle Corridor Initiative (MCI) to enhance the route within the global trade landscape. This 6,500-kilometer-long (approximately 4,000 miles) transport and trade route traversing Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye has gained renewed prominence as member states focus on developing secure, efficient, and competitive transport corridors to mitigate the challenges posed by sanctions and instability along traditional transit channels. The OTS has already devoted extensive efforts into systematically developing sophisticated logistics and transport facilities through various multilateral treaties signed within the context of MCI. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 22.02.2025  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, ISPI Senior Associate Research Fellow


Armenia signed an agreement to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in May 2014 after halting the process of signing an Association Agreement with the European Union. Many observers noted that Armenia’s then-President Serzh Sargsyan reversed his foreign policy following a meeting with Russia’s president in September 2013 in a U-turn. This decision paved the way for Armenia’s EAEU membership and halted the negotiation of an agreement that would have included, inter alia, a free-trade agreement with the EU. The reversal was likely made under Russian pressure and was influenced by geopolitical and geo-economic considerations. Armenia, supporting the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in its conflict with Azerbaijan, saw its alliance with Russia as a crucial deterrent against hostile neighbours, including Azerbaijan, which had significantly increased its military spending. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 06.02.2025  |  External Relations
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On January 6, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) announced plans to invest $7 billion in Türkiye’s energy sector in the coming years. Between 2008 and 2024, SOCAR Türkiye, SOCAR’s local subsidiary, invested $2 billion into the development of the petrochemical facilities of the Petkim petrochemical company privatized by SOCAR. The total investments of the company in the Turkish economy accounted for more than $18 billion between the same period, making the company the largest foreign investor in the country. In 2018, Azerbaijan made its largest one-time foreign investment in Türkiye by establishing the SOCAR Star Oil Refinery, which has an oil processing capacity of approximately 214,000 barrels per day. SOCAR’s steady inroads into Türkiye and further into the Balkans and Eastern Europe enable Baku to implement its geopolitical and geoeconomic interests while boosting strategic alliance with Ankara in many important fields READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 24.01.2025  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On January 14, 2025, as U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration breathed its last days, Armenia and the United States signed a Strategic Partnership Charter in Washington, D.C. The document was signed by Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. This article will highlight the key points of the agreement and present a reflection and analysis on how Armenia can benefit from the Charter to pursue its foreign policy goals, amid the regional reaction and the Azerbaijani president’s recent threats against Yerevan.
As per the agreement, both countries affirm the importance of their relationship as “friends and strategic partners.” They emphasize that this cooperation is based on “shared values and common interests,” which include democracy, economic freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. They also aim to collaborate on innovation and technological advances, bolster energy security and strengthen their relationship in the fields of education, science, culture, rule of law, defence, and security. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Published on EGF: 24.01.2025  |  External Relations
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