The European Geopolitical Forum - Publications // EGF

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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 2012

Key Points:

Turkey continues to work with Arab and Western allies to intensify pressure on Syria. After hosting the 1 April 2012, Friends of Syria group meeting, Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan responds to Syrian forces firing on a Turkish refugee camp by openly considering invoking NATO’s Article 5 on mutual defence.
The Fethullah Gulen Movement’s influence on Turkey is re-examined following a somewhat controversial expose in the 24 April edition of The New York Times.
A pricing dispute between the Kurdish Autonomous Government in Northern Iraq and the national government threatens Turkish crude supplies, while the TANAP pipeline agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkey should be signed by the end of the month.
NABUCCO loses a Hungarian stakeholder while Turkish gas pipelines operator, BOTAS, cuts down its own stake in Brussels’ pipeline project. However, all is not lost in breaking Gazprom’s dominant grip on European gas supplies, as TANAP will likely connect to the revamped NABUCCO West project.

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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 2012

Key Points:

Turkey closes its embassy in Syria and openly discusses establishing buffer zones inside its southern neighbour for refugees fleeing the conflict zones.
There is discontent within Turkey’s Shia Muslim minority about the AKP government’s criticism of the Alawite Assad regime, raising concern about possible ethnic tension in areas near the Turkey-Syria border.
Turkey releases two high profile journalists under investigation in the Ergenekon trial, but opens a second investigation into comments made by one of them to the press upon his release.
Iraqi leaders envisage future export routes for the country’s oil through Turkey in case of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the two countries’ economic ties grow as the Kurdish north becomes a prime export market for Turkish products.
Turkey will go forward with its lawsuit against Iran for short-supplying on a natural gas contract.

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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
February 2012

Key Points:

A crisis erupted between state prosecutors and the intelligence service, when members from the latter refused to turn up for questioning regarding an investigation into ties to the PKK. The intervention of prime minister and the parliament have calmed matters for now, but some experts speculate the incident is a result of a break between the AKP and the Gulenist movement.
Bloodshed in Syria continues while Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu travels to capitals throughout the world in an attempt to drum up support for an UN resolution to stop the violence there. Syrian refugees continue to flood into Turkey’s southern provinces, where the Free Syrian Army is said to be organizing the armed resistance to the regime in Damascus.
France’s Constitutional Council invalidates the Armenian Genocide draft law passed in January, though both presidential candidates have vowed to push a reworded version upon entering office.
The cold spell in Turkey shows the weakness in the country’s position as a net importer of gas, while supply issues with Azerbaijan and Iran drastically cut imports amidst increased use in the month. Energy Minister Taner Yildiz met with NABUCCO’s board of partners to discuss the link up of it and TANAP.

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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
January 2012

Key Points:

Russia’s Gazprom announces that the South Stream gas pipeline project will begin construction ahead of schedule in December 2012, putting NABUCCO in an increasingly precarious position.
Turkey slips further down the rankings of the media watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, press freedom rankings, now 148 out of 178 countries. This development comes following the fifth anniversary of the killing of writer Hrant Dink and a ruling in the case of his death stating that it was not the result of organized crime.
Former Turkish Military (TSK) Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug, was arrested on charges of supporting websites that were part of a conspiracy to overthrow the government. The military remains quiet on the matter, indicating that the ruling AKP government has triumphed in keeping the TSK under full civilian control. But the wide swath of those accused of complicity in conspiracy investigations continues to draw criticism at home and abroad.
Both houses of the French parliament pass a law criminalizing the denial of the Armenian genocide, with Turkish politicians voicing their outrage at the decision against a backdrop where relations between Paris and Ankara are at the lowest level in recent memory.

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