Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 2012
Key Points:

• Syria is in the grips of a full fledged civil war, with opposition forces assassinating the country’s minister of defense and other high ranking officials in a Damascus meeting of senior regime officials.
• Fighting has escalated near the Turkish-Syrian border. Turkish military units are being deployed as a precaution, especially in light of reports of PKK forces seizing portions of northern Syria.
• Oil exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq to Turkey continues to draw the ire of government officials in Baghdad. However, despite the disputes, cooperation on projects will likely continue.
• Azerbaijan’s energy minister weighed into the NABUCCO West Vs TAP debate, saying the former was the best option for delivering Shah Deniz gas to Europe.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 06.08.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during June 2012 Key Points:

• Syria shoots down a Turkish military plane, greatly heightening tensions between the countries.
• Although Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan threatens action in response to any further threats from Syria, domestic opinion polls from just prior to the incident show a Turkish public hesitant to confront the Assad regime.
• Meanwhile, the CHP and AKP party leadership meets in an attempt to revive reconciliation efforts with the country’s Kurdish minority.
• As constitution discussions continue, Erdogan’s statements on the necessity of a strong presidential office worries his critics who fear he will take over and extend his reign as head of the country following the end of his term as prime minister.
• In the energy sector, Azerbaijan and Turkey appear to have finalized the TANAP pipeline agreement while Turkish Energy Minister, Taner Yildiz, discusses the future of nuclear power in Turkey at the World Economic Forums.

• EGF Editorial  |   |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during May 2012

Key Points:

• Turkey expels Syrian diplomats after the massacre of over 100 people in Houla. Although Ankara is rumoured in some circles to be harbouring remnants of the Syrian opposition military forces, overt Turkish intervention in Syria remains unlikely at the time of writing.
• Ankara increases its cooperation with the Kurdish Regional Government in Erbil, while also harbouring a high level, fugitive Sunni Iraqi politician. Tensions between Baghdad and Turkey continue to deteriorate over the two issues.
• The ongoing coup and terrorist investigations roiling the country have Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan concerned. The prime minister urged for the probes to speed up for the good of the country.
• Erdogan sparks a fierce debate in Turkey over his remarks on abortion rights.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.06.2012  |  External Relations
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The timing of this conference could not have been more appropriate, and backdrop relevant. The Arab Spring that has spread across the Middle East and North Africa highlights Turkey’s growing importance in the region and the role it can play in facilitating transition to democratic governance throughout these regions. Turkey is a secular and democratic state, and yet there has been much discussion about Turkey’s renewed ties with its neighbours. It has been viewed, by some, as evidence of Turkey turning away from its traditional alliances with the West. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.07.2011  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish domestic and international politics during June 2011

Key Points:

• Despite the fact that the ruling AKP did not gain the electoral majority it requiredto unilaterally re-write the country’s constitution, the party continues to be the overwhelmingly dominant player in the Turkish political landscape.


• As was inevitably the case with Turkey’s position towards Libya following prolonged civil conflict in the country, Ankara’s position towards Syria is slowly but surely adjusting towards a tougher stance


• Turkey continues to keep one foot in Nabucco’s door, and the other in bilateral energy arrangements with neighbouring states. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 14.07.2011  |  External Relations
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A snapshot of Turkey’s domestic and regional politics during May 2011
Key Points:

• Uprisings in the Middle East continue to make diplomacy a difficult game to master for leaders in Turkey, with Syria’s potential implosion being a matter of great concern for those in power in Ankara.


• With Parliamentary elections scheduled for June 12, and the AKP seeing stronger challenges across the political spectrum, tensions are on the rise in the country. It is unlikely, however, that the AKP will face electoral defeat.


• The Nabucco pipeline continues to be mired in uncertainty as Brussels has not been able to persuade suppliers to sign on to the project. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 06.06.2011  |  External Relations
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A snapshot of Turkey’s domestic and regional politics during April 2011

Key Points:

• Turkish leaders continue to navigate the ongoing “Arab Spring”, this time as it moves to Turkish borders with protests engulfing Syria.
• Turkey’s record with press freedom remains under scrutiny, as the NGO, Journalists Without Borders, condemns the country in the run-up to the June 12 elections.
• The political situation in Turkey’s southeast remains volatile, with the Turkish military breaking up large scale protests by Kurdish demonstrators in the city of Hakkari on April 25
• Suggestions by finance experts allude to the overheating of the Turkish economy, while the Turkish Central Bank’s new head moves to quell such speculation.
• The Turkish Prime Minister announces plans for an Istanbul canal that some experts say could replace the need for the country’s participation in the EU-driven NABUCCO gas pipeline project

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 01.05.2011  |  External Relations
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March 2011
Key points:

• In the Ergenekon case, arrests by the government on vague charges reappear, this time targeting journalists and authors. Recently two journalists were detained based on secret evidence that security officials say cannot be revealed at this time.
• Ankara continues to practice ‘Strategic Depth’ foreign policy but has largely been left behind in the Western intervention in Libya. As Syria is rocked by protests and consequent crackdowns, Turkey is largely silent, preaching stability as the top priority for the region.
• Turkey rebuffs Russian demands on a South Stream guarantee while the EU’s head of Energy, Günther Oettinger, warns Russia against intimidating Central Asian suppliers of Nabucco.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 14.04.2011  |  External Relations
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February 2011

Key positions:

• Former Turkish Prime Minister, Necmettin Erbakan, passed away Sunday 27 February. He was 84. Erbakan, the first Islamist prime minister of the Turkish Republic, was forced to resign after only a year into his reign by the military, in what is called the first ‘post-modern coup’.

• Under the guidance of current Prime Minister Erdogan, Turkey has stayed on the sidelines throughout much of the past weeks while protests raged throughout the Middle East. Ankara is finding its new position as a dominant regional actor as having less impact than previously thought, but has been forced to act pragmatically due to the proximity of its own citizens and financial interests in the affected nations.

• Prime Minister Erdogan recently spoke in Dusseldorf, Germany, telling Turks there that while they should learn the (German) language and participate in wider culture of their new homeland; assimilation would be an affront to their human rights. The prime minister also spoke positively about Turkey’s accession to the EU, surprising some for the positive manner in which the AKP leader addressed the issue after years of European rejection.

• The Nabucco gas pipeline still appears to be up in the air as none of the participating companies have yet signed any construction agreements, while a Russian delegation has put pressure on the Brussels-EU whilst addressing its own energy security concerns. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 18.03.2011  |  Energy
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January 2011

Key Points:
• The Nabucco pipeline received several pieces of good news in January, but there is little sign of any movement towards commencement of construction works. Further, Italy’s ENI has rejected any possible suggestions that Nabucco could merge with Russia’s South Stream.

• Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Erdogan, has responded to criticisms that new laws advocating the restrictions of alcohol reflect an infringement on personal freedoms of Turkish citizens.

• The widely discussed “conspiracy” of the Sledgehammer coup plot is once again in the lime light, as prosecutors allege plans by the plotters to bomb two Istanbul mosques.

• Following the release of 5 members of the banned (Turkish) Hizbullah organisation in January, a fiery securitypolitical debate has erupted as to whether there is a link between the AKP government and the outlawed group.

• While Istanbul hosts talks between the P5 +1 and Iran over the latter’s nuclear ambitions, Turkey sits out the meeting. A settlement on Cyprus appears impossible after Turkey and the EU sit out January talks in Geneva, with some critics saying this is the end for Turkey’s own EU accession negotiations.

• A day after Saudi Arabia halted its efforts in support of the formation of a new government in Lebanon, the joint Turkish/Qatari mission followed suit, claiming that the disputing Lebanese factions indicated reservations with external proposals to help broker a deal. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 27.01.2011  |  External Relations
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