How Will Uzbekistan Become A Regional Transit Hub? By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
On 5th April of 2019, a meeting of the railway authorities of Kazakhstan, China, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan took place in Almaty dedicated to advancing cargo traffic along the North-South Transit Corridor. In fact, the participation of Uzbekistan in the project will shorten the route of goods from China to Iran and forward. Being a part of the ambitious North-South Transit Corridor, the China-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Iran railway can shape the geopolitics of Central Asia. READ MORE
Re-evaluating the idea of ‘Putinism’
By Eduard Abrahamyan, Wider Black Sea & Central Asia regional security analyst
While the standoff between adversaries rages on, recent weeks saw an intensified communication between American and Russian high-level officials over the wide array of issues on which Moscow and Washington have contrasting views. On May 14, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and later with President Vladimir Putin in the Russian Black Sea city of Sochi. READ MORE
The Dangers of the "Rule-less" World By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The United States President Donald J. Trump’s decision to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights brought upon criticism and admiration from both anti- and pro-Israeli groups worldwide. However, most parts of the discussion were focused on the damages or gains of that step for the US interests in the Middle East or for competing Arab and Israeli narratives regarding the history of the Golan Heights. Meanwhile, one of the lasting implications of this decision will be the future degradation of the world order based on international norms, rules, and principles. READ MORE
The Number of People in Extreme Poverty Reaches Historical Minimum By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi
As good news is less scandalous, it is rarely spread. However, it is necessary to point out that the percentage of people, who live in poverty, reached a historic minimum in 2018. Unfortunately, there was no appropriate reaction of the international community regarding this development.
Over the last 30 years, the number of people who live in poverty has decreased by 1 billion.
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Historic and New Silk Road Perspectives of the European Integration of Georgia By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi
Georgia is a small country on the crossroads of Europe and Asia. At the same time, together with the economic benefits for the country, which had and has its important geopolitical place between different civilizations, there were frequent confrontations for the gaining control over Georgia and Caucasus Region due to the fact, that modern territory of Georgia was located on one of the branch of the Great Silk Road. Historic Silk Road was functioning since 8-7-th Centuries B.C. till the middle of 15-th Century.
After the collapse of Constantinople in 1453, the interregional Silk Road lost its function, and Georgia was in a very difficult situation, that spanned centuries.
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A Paradigm Based upon the Madrid Principles Is Not Acceptable for either Armenia or Karabakh By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Since the victory of the "Velvet Revolution" in Armenia, the key foreign policy issue facing the new Armenian authorities is the Karabakh conflict. The negotiation process has been stalled since the failed Kazan summit in June 2011, and the April 2016 four day war made any possible movement forward even less likely. The negotiations after April 2016 were focused on the launch of confidence building measures including the establishment of the ceasefire violations investigation mechanisms and the increase of the OSCE monitoring mission personnel. However, even these modest goals were difficult to achieve as Azerbaijan was urging for a start of "substantial" negotiations on issues of territories and status, otherwise perceiving the confidence building measures as a way to cement the current status quo. READ MORE
America's Offshore Balancing in Action By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
US President Donald J. Trump recent decision to withdraw American forces from Syria caught everyone by surprise: the Washington establishment, foreign policy pundits and everyone else who follow the Middle East Geopolitics. Given the top priority which President Trump has attached to the containment of Iran and curbing its activities in the Middle East, many believed that US presence in Syria should have been either expanded or at least stayed the same. READ MORE
Bolton's Caucasian Tour and Russia's Reaction By Eduard Abrahamyan, Wider Black Sea & Central Asia regional security analyst
On October 24-26, a U.S. State Department delegation headed by National Security Adviser Ambassador John Bolton visited the South Caucasian republics after talks in Moscow. The delegation’s visit to Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia was immediately dubbed a reinvigoration of U.S. policy towards the Caucasus and a pragmatic reengagement with the conflicted region. Bolton appeared to refine the evolving U.S. priorities with each country, categorizing them in accordance with political capabilities, shared interests and the roles that Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia respectively seek in relations with the West. The visit, however, caused an angry reaction from Moscow, especially given the issues Bolton raised in Yerevan. READ MORE
Will the Syrian Kurds Strike a Deal with Moscow?
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
President Donald Trump’s announcement at the end of 2018 that he would withdraw U.S. troops from Syria came as a surprise to all parties involved, sparking particular concerns among America’s Syrian Kurdish allies. The move followed President Trump’s declaration of victory over ISIS after a four-year military campaign fighting alongside Syrian Kurdish forces. This sudden and unexpected decision has been widely criticized not only by allies but also inside the White House, with many analysts arguing that the U.S. withdrawal will expose the Syrian Kurds to an attack by Turkey READ MORE
Belarus and Azerbaijan Enhance Their Strategic Military Partnership
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
On November 19, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid a long-awaited official visit to Belarus, where he met with his counterpart, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On this occasion, the Belarusian and Azerbaijani state news agencies praised the level of bilateral strategic cooperation, widely citing Lukashenka’s words to Aliyev: “Belarus has been waiting for you” (Belta, November 19). The Azerbaijani president’s trip to Minsk coincided with “growing frictions” between Belarus and Armenia, two formal allies within the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). READ MORE
Iran Crisis — The First Step towards the Establishment of New Multi-layered World Order? By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The United States' decision to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Tehran has triggered a new crisis around Iran. The Trump administration states that it does not pursue the policy of “regime change” but rather wants to get a “change of behaviour” from Tehran. However, the key American demands – withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria, the halt of Iranian missile program and significant reduction of Iranian involvement in Iraq and Yemen – are tantamount to the capitulation. It’s obvious that if any Iranian government agrees to capitulate – that would be the shortest and safest way to domestic political turmoil which may result in regime change. READ MORE
- December 28, 2018 15:39PM
Ceasefire Violations Down as Armenia and Azerbaijan Implement South Caucasus Study Group Recommendation By EGF Editorial Staff
Since the end of October 2018, a new operative communication line (crisis hotline) has been established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two countries that have been at war over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), a region recognized as Azerbaijani by the International Community, but inhabited by a majority Armenian population.
According to official sources from both sides, the level of military tension on the Line of Contact (LoC) between the conflicting parties has significantly decreased (from about 90 reports of ceasefire breaches/day, to about 20 reports/day). The opening of this new communication channel had been agreed several weeks before by the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime-Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, during an informal meeting held in the margins of the CIS summit in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) on 27-28 September 2018. READ MORE
- December 11, 2018 06:39AM
Tensions Rising In & Around Iran By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
President Trump’s decision to pull out from the Iranian nuclear deal has significantly increased tensions in and around Iran. The return of “regime change” policy will have profound implications on Iran and the Middle East. The Iranian economy is in steep decline with the sharp devaluation of the Iranian Rial and large-scale protest rallies in different regions. The rising prices of consumer products, shortages of water and problems related with mismanagement are fuelling the protests. READ MORE
Turkey's Post Elections Policy in the South Caucasus By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Turkey's strategic alliance with Azerbaijan, trilateral co-operation including Georgia and its efforts to transform itself into a regional energy hub will continue to be the main features of the Erdogan government policy in the South Caucasus.
24 June 2018 was a big day for Turkish domestic politics. Turkey elected both the President and the Parliament. Given the sweeping constitutional changes approved in the April 2017 referendum, the new President has become an almighty figure in Turkey. Despite various assessments envisaging hard times for the incumbent Turkish President, Erdogan managed to win the race without entering into a possibly dangerous run-off. READ MORE
Is America Changing the European Power Play?
By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum
When at the NATO summit in Brussels, on 25 May 2017, president Donald Trump didn’t say that one sentence committing America to continue standing by article 5 of the NATO Charter, he raised eyebrows across Europe. At that time, everyone remembered that candidate Donald Trump raised serious suspicions that his presidency might lead to the end of the West, as we knew it. Nevertheless, everyone who has ever believed in the strength of the Trans-Atlantic link and in the soft power of the Euro-Atlantic values secretly hoped that the end of Pax Americana in Europe wasn’t that close. READ MORE
Is this the end for the post-Cold War world order? By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The G7 and Shanghai Co-operation Organisation summits last week highlighted the decline of western dominated post-cold war order, and a growing role for regional powers in their respective zones of influence.
Last week world attention was focused on two key international summits - the G7 in Canada and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in China. The first was a gathering of advanced economies, with established democratic institutions and traditions, the second a summit of the "rising others", including two giants - China and India - as well as Russia, desperately vying for a seat at the table of global powers. READ MORE
Pashinyan's timely visit to Georgia By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Armenian-Georgian relations are friendly, regardless of some tensions under the surface. During his visit to Georgia, prime-minister Nikol Pashinyan should focus on pragmatic issues related to transport corridors.
Georgia plays a key role in Armenian foreign policy. Given the absence of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey Georgia is one of only two gateways for Armenia to connect with the world. Approximately 70 percent of Armenian foreign trade passes through Georgia. The country is the only channel for Armenian business to reach both Russia - a critical market for Armenian exports, and Europe - another key spot for Armenian business especially after 2017 November signature of Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU. READ MORE
Ukrainian Gas Transit: Still Vital for Russian Gas Supplies to Europe By Jack Sharples, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas
With European gas import demand having risen substantially since 2014, Gazprom has dramatically increased its sales on the European market. In Q1 2018, Gazprom reported record daily gas exports to Europe in late February and early March. This Comment addresses the question of how those volumes were delivered to the market, and the extent to which the infrastructure for delivery of those volumes was used, highlighting that, in times of peak European gas import demand, full utilisation of the Nord Stream and Yamal-Europe pipelines left Ukraine as the only transit route with spare capacity. READ MORE
Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution” and the Karabakh Conflict Resolution
By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum
On 17 April 2018, Armenia’s National Assembly overwhelmingly voted to install Serzh Sargsyan -former president of the country- as prime minister. They unequivocally ignored the “voice of the street” calling for a change of face at the helm of this rather small, but ambitious post-Soviet state. This vote was supposed to conclude a power capture scheme started back in 2015.[…] Under pressure from independent civil society, then president Sargsyan had promised not to turn up as candidate for the prime-ministerial post. READ MORE
Endless Endgame: Whither Russia-West Confrontation? By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert
The world’s future is currently endangered by numerous fundamental threats, yet Western democracies fear only one – Vladimir Putin. On all geopolitical fronts of the emerging multipolar world the Russian President has smartly backlashed against all collective challenges mounted by the West. Small wonder the West’s incessant fear of Russia’s military power has made Putin the world’s most powerful man. What is currently happening in West-Russia relations is not a new Cold War; it is not even a renewed East-West divide. READ MORE
Turkey and Russia aspire to replace a century of Western domination of the Middle East By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
An "Eurasianist" ideology is helping to consolidate a Russia - Turkey strategic alliance, as a viable tool to achieve long term strategic interests in the Middle East and beyond.
The security architecture of the Middle East is in the midst of a tremendous transformation. Since the end of the First World War the region has been under Western domination of some form or another. In 1920s and 1930s it was wrapped within the mandate system imposed by the League of Nations, and since the end of the Second World War the US has been the regional kingmaker. The Soviet Union had some footholds such as Egypt during Nasser's rule, as well as Syria and parts of Yemen. READ MORE
The Rationale behind Armenia-Georgia Strategic Partnership By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Since gaining independence in 1991 Armenia – Georgia relations have been characterized as friendly and mutually beneficial. Georgia is one of only two routes connecting Armenia to the world and Armenia serves as a land bridge for Georgia to Iran. The mainly positive historical memories also play a role in fomenting friendly images within both societies. […] Yet, there is a lack of clear articulation of the strategic rationale behind those bilateral relations. READ MORE
Raising Tensions Around Iran: Should Armenia be Concerned? By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
In recent months Iran has been facing both internal and external challenges. The wave of demonstrations shook up the Islamic Republic in late December – early January 2017-2018. The expert community still has contradicting views for the main reasons of the protest movement: internal struggle between conservatives and reformists, outside meddling with main arrows targeting the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia as potential sponsors, spontaneous movement based on economic hardships and rampant corruption. READ MORE
Is Russia’s Containment Still Possible? Case-study on the South Caucasus By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Since 2014, the containment of Russia has been one of the most popular topics within the expert community dealing with Geopolitics and Geostrategy. This term has been actively used by the Western political circles, including high level state officials and senior leaders of NATO. The Russian officials also use this term to describe Western, and, in particular, US policy towards Moscow. However, despite emphasizing the necessity to contain Russia in the post-Soviet space, including in the South Caucasus, little if anything is being done to change the geopolitical status quo. READ MORE
- February 20, 2018 07:58AM
The Western Confrontation with Russia: Scenario Planning in the Area from the Baltic Sea to the Wider Black Sea
by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum
Over the last few years, the confrontation between Russia and the West has made the headlines of plenty of academic and media analysis. Not surprisingly, the countries in-between located at the epi-center of this confrontation have been struggling to re-balance their positions against Washington, Brussels, and Moscow. What scenarios would most accurately outline the future of this confrontation in the geopolitical area between the Baltic Sea and the Wider Black Sea? READ MORE
- February 10, 2018 07:36AM
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