By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The international security architecture is undergoing tremendous transformations. The relative decline of the US influence, rising China, more confident Russia, turmoil in the Middle East, rift in transatlantic relations and growing populism are the key patterns of current international relations. These developments are influencing virtually all regions of the world. Changes are not circumventing South Caucasus too. The region witnessed Armenian “Velvet revolution” in 2018, the protests and change of government in Georgia in June – September 2019 and, most recently, significant political transformations in Azerbaijan resulting in resignation of many key representatives of old ruling elites. READ MORE

By Armine Arzumanyan, Graduate of Renmin University, PR of China

China's main goals in Central Asia may not directly hint at the region's long-term strategic importance, but the outcomes of China's engagement in the region clearly show concrete signs of it. China's emergence as the dominant actor in the region’s energy and infrastructure sectors, along with its growing presence as the lender of choice for Central Asia, has had deep consequences as Beijing has quietly cultivated the defense component of its newfound presence in region. Though relatively little studied, China's energy-infrastructure-defense tridimensional approach is of immense importance. READ MORE.

By Armine Arzumanyan, Graduate of Renmin University, PR of China

China's main goals in Central Asia may not directly hint at the region's long-term strategic importance, but the outcomes of China's engagement in the region clearly show concrete signs of it. China's emergence as the dominant actor in the region’s energy and infrastructure sectors, along with its growing presence as the lender of choice for Central Asia, has had deep consequences as Beijing has quietly cultivated the defense component of its newfound presence in region. Though relatively little studied, China's energy-infrastructure-defense tridimensional approach is of immense importance. READ MORE.

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The US – China relations are usually described as the most powerful force to shape the global security architecture for the upcoming decades. They have gone through tremendous transformations over the recent 45 years. The opening to China launched by the Nixon Administration was part of a US strategy to deter and contain the Soviet Union. Since the late 1980s the US have accelerated its economic relations with China creating a heavy interdependence. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia and China are both among the ancient civilizations of human history. They share millennia of mutual contacts via the ancient Silk Road. However, history is not the only thing which unites the two nations. Both Armenians and Chinese put enormous emphasis on protecting their national identities and traditions. Of course, this does not mean that Armenia and China are not interested or involved in the current wave of globalization. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Turkey is successfully managing to implement a strategic balancing act in its relations with the US and Russia. Other regional actors may look at this policy and take good note.
Since the summer 2016 Turkish foreign policy has been facing a tough challenge: how to balance its growing partnership with Russia with its relations with the US? The rising tensions between the US and Russia, as well as the widening gap between the US and Turkish interests in Syria, the refusal by Washington to extradite cleric Fetullah Gulen, and simmering doubts among the Turkish leadership regarding the possible involvement of the US in the 2016 July military coup attempt, make this task even more daunting. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

South Caucasus is a part of EU’s Eastern Partnership program. Launched in 2009, the Eastern Partnership envisages fostering relations between the EU and six former Soviet Union republics – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The key goal of this program is the signature of Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements to bring about political association and economic integration. The top priority for the EU has been the political and economic development of the region, as Brussels did not want to have a permanent source of instability in its immediate neighborhood. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia and Georgia have a long history of relations. In more recent times both republics were parts of the Soviet Union, and after the collapse of the latter the two states have found themselves involved in the regional geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Each of them chose its own foreign policy priorities based upon relevant perceptions of vital national interests. Armenia, being under joint Azerbaijani – Turkish pressure due to the Karabakh conflict and with memories of 1915 Armenian Genocide still fresh has no alternative but to establish political-military alliance with Russia. Georgia, with historical grievances over Russia’s role in demolishing Georgian independent statehood and still fresh memories of April 1989 tragic events in downtown Tbilisi, chose the path towards Euro-Atlantic integration. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Iran is one of the key geopolitical actors of the Middle East. Despite the current “diplomatic isolation and maximum economic pressure” campaign launched by the US President Trump Administration, Iran retains its capabilities of making serious impact on regional geopolitics. It exerts political and economic influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen through various state and non-state actors and has a vast toolbox of asymmetric methods of political, economic and military struggle. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

In recent years, Russia – Turkey relations have gone through tremendous transformations. In November 2015, they entered the phase of acute crisis with no hope of quick improvements. However, in summer 2016 the process of reconciliation was launched, which resulted in bringing an unprecedented level of cooperation in economy and in the military-technical sphere. What are the main factors for such change and what does the current Russia – Turkey partnership mean for the South Caucasus. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

A pivot towards the West is simply not in Armenia’s best interest.
Immediately after the “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia during the spring of 2018, the main narrative regarding possible developments in Armenian and Russian relations focused on negative expectations. Conventional wisdom brought plenty of reasons for such a mood. Russian authorities do not like leaders who come to power through street demonstrations, and Russia mainly exerts power in its neighbourhood through a network of corrupt and oligarchic elites. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The expert community dealing with international relations and security studies is involved in active debates regarding the current phase and future developments of the international security architecture. The prevailing topic is the end of United States (US) unipolar hegemony and establishment of more multi-polar, but an unstable and more complicated world with less respect towards the international laws and growing emphasis on coercive policy including threats and use of military force, economic sanctions and hybrid tactics. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On 5th April of 2019, a meeting of the railway authorities of Kazakhstan, China, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan took place in Almaty dedicated to advancing cargo traffic along the North-South Transit Corridor. In fact, the participation of Uzbekistan in the project will shorten the route of goods from China to Iran and forward. Being a part of the ambitious North-South Transit Corridor, the China-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Iran railway can shape the geopolitics of Central Asia. READ MORE

By Eduard Abrahamyan, Wider Black Sea & Central Asia regional security analyst

While the standoff between adversaries rages on, recent weeks saw an intensified communication between American and Russian high-level officials over the wide array of issues on which Moscow and Washington have contrasting views. On May 14, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and later with President Vladimir Putin in the Russian Black Sea city of Sochi. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The United States President Donald J. Trump’s decision to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights brought upon criticism and admiration from both anti- and pro-Israeli groups worldwide. However, most parts of the discussion were focused on the damages or gains of that step for the US interests in the Middle East or for competing Arab and Israeli narratives regarding the history of the Golan Heights. Meanwhile, one of the lasting implications of this decision will be the future degradation of the world order based on international norms, rules, and principles. READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

As good news is less scandalous, it is rarely spread. However, it is necessary to point out that the percentage of people, who live in poverty, reached a historic minimum in 2018. Unfortunately, there was no appropriate reaction of the international community regarding this development. Over the last 30 years, the number of people who live in poverty has decreased by 1 billion. READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

Environmental resources such as water and air have always been necessary for human life and human activities. For the majority of human history, the environment did, however, not represent a problem for mankind and its sustainable development. The environment and the natural resources satisfied the needs of the people, without causing damage to the next generations. In the second half of the 20th century, the topic of environmental protection has entered the political agenda, because humanity’s economic activities have raised environmental pollution to a level that threatens various species and even the ecosystem as a whole. READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

Since the first years of the restoration of independence, Georgia and Ukraine tried to establish close relations with the European Union. In the beginning of 1990’s, the European Union had already its own concrete position towards both states and considered the development of a regional partnership with post-Soviet republics as a main goal. The EU was promoting the integration of the new independent states to the international community and providing internal stability. EU’s CFSP was taking into consideration the same strategy toward all the post-soviet republics – Russia, Ukraine, as well as the South Caucasus or the Central Asian states. The purposes of EU on the way of transformation of those republics were practically similar. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
It is time for Armenia to deepen its relations with Iran and China, out of necessity rather than choice.

Armenia continues to face a hard geopolitical reality. The 2018 Velvet revolution has brought hope of the possibility of significant and systemic changes in domestic policy - including in the fight against corruption, furthering the rule of law, and reducing monopolies over key imports and exports from and to Armenia. However, the revolution did not change the geopolitical juncture around Armenia. Yerevan continues to face joint Azerbaijani-Turkish pressure to make concessions in the Karabakh conflict settlement process. READ MORE

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

On 11 April 2019, NATO confirmed US plans to deploy of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to Romania. According to NATO officials, the United States will fulfil its commitment to NATO’s Ballistic Missile Defence by the temporary deployment of a THAAD system to Deveselu in Romania. The scheduled work is part of the United States European Phased Adaptive Approach to ballistic missile defence, which has been implemented since September 2009. In response, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexander Grushko said: “Russia is “closely following” the temporary deployment of a THAAD system to the Deveselu base in Romania.” READ MORE.

By the European Geopolitical Forum Editorial Staff

In 2018, the Republic of Kazakhstan successfully completed its two-year membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Over this period, Astana acted as an honest broker, known for its effective balanced approach and neutrality against all international actors. In just two years, representatives of Kazakhstan took part in more than 1,000 open and closed UNSC meetings, 38 informal events, and contributed to 115 resolutions and 48 statements of the Council Presidency. READ MORE. See the original on-line media publication here

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi

Georgia is a small country on the crossroads of Europe and Asia. At the same time, together with the economic benefits for the country, which had and has its important geopolitical place between different civilizations, there were frequent confrontations for the gaining control over Georgia and Caucasus Region due to the fact, that modern territory of Georgia was located on one of the branch of the Great Silk Road. Historic Silk Road was functioning since 8-7-th Centuries B.C. till the middle of 15-th Century. After the collapse of Constantinople in 1453, the interregional Silk Road lost its function, and Georgia was in a very difficult situation, that spanned centuries. READ MORE

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

In recent years, Turkish President Erdogan has turned his country towards the East. In so doing, he is risking a break with his NATO allies in the West.
The failed coup in Turkey on 15 July 2016 has been a turning point in US-Turkey relations. The coup has left many questions from US officials unanswered by their Turkish counterparts. In addition, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's request for the extradition of US-born Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, whom Erdogan called the head behind the coup, was repeatedly rejected by the US Department of Justice because of insufficient evidence. This point was disputed by Turkish officials who claimed that they had provided sufficient evidence of Gulen's complicity in the coup. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since the victory of the "Velvet Revolution" in Armenia, the key foreign policy issue facing the new Armenian authorities is the Karabakh conflict. The negotiation process has been stalled since the failed Kazan summit in June 2011, and the April 2016 four day war made any possible movement forward even less likely. The negotiations after April 2016 were focused on the launch of confidence building measures including the establishment of the ceasefire violations investigation mechanisms and the increase of the OSCE monitoring mission personnel. However, even these modest goals were difficult to achieve as Azerbaijan was urging for a start of "substantial" negotiations on issues of territories and status, otherwise perceiving the confidence building measures as a way to cement the current status quo. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

US President Donald J. Trump recent decision to withdraw American forces from Syria caught everyone by surprise: the Washington establishment, foreign policy pundits and everyone else who follow the Middle East Geopolitics. Given the top priority which President Trump has attached to the containment of Iran and curbing its activities in the Middle East, many believed that US presence in Syria should have been either expanded or at least stayed the same. READ MORE