Peace in South Caucasus Closer After the Washington Summit, but Uncertainties Loom
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On August 28, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that his country will start substantive talks next month with the United States and Azerbaijan on the practical arrangements for opening a transit route to Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave via the territory of Armenia. The agreement on this route (hereafter the Zangezur Corridor) was reached on August 8 during a trilateral meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan, mediated by U.S. President Donald Trump. According to the trilateral agreement, the route (renamed as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP) would serve as an “unimpeded” passage and be managed through what Trump called an “exclusive partnership” between Armenia and the United States for 99 years. According to Pashinyan, this implies the deployment of an “Armenia-United States company” which “will carry out the business management”. He underscored that the company “will not control that road but manage it,” refuting the domestic criticism about the loss of Armenian sovereignty over the route and the sublease of the territory to the United States. READ MORE
- September 12, 2025 12:51PM
Advancing Azerbaijan-China Energy Cooperation within the SCO Framework
By Vusal GULIYEV, Leading Advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev delivered a speech at the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus” (SCO+) meeting in Tianjin, China (September 2025) underlining Azerbaijan’s role in regional connectivity and energy cooperation. Energy is a cornerstone of Azerbaijan’s economy and a major area of cooperation with both China and other SCO countries. As a hydrocarbon-rich nation on the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan brings significant oil and gas assets to any partnership. It has leveraged its dialogue partner status in the SCO to advance energy collaboration aiming to diversify its export markets, attract investment in energy infrastructure, and even develop new energy technologies. Building on this foundation, Azerbaijan has gradually shifted its energy focus from its traditional European partners toward emerging Asian markets. Traditionally, Azerbaijan’s oil and gas have flowed Westward to Europe (through pipelines like BTC and TANAP), but now Asian markets are increasingly in focus. China has begun importing Azerbaijani crude oil in recent years. Although volumes are modest relative to Azerbaijan’s exports to Europe, they signal a growing Far Eastern demand. READ MORE
- September 12, 2025 12:50PM
U.S. policy in the South Caucasus: Keep Turkey in, Russia down and Iran out By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
On August 8, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed a memorandum of understanding with seven points, affirming their commitment to finalize a peace agreement. At the same time, bilateral agreements were signed between the U.S. and each country separately. According to Narek Sukiasyan, a research fellow at the Center for Culture and Civilization Studies at Yerevan State University, the clauses in the memorandum carry considerable geopolitical weight. Most directly, they mandate the disbanding of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, which was co-chaired by the U.S., France and Russia to help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict peacefully. Baku has marginalized the group since 2020.
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- September 12, 2025 12:49PM
The Washington Summit Reshapes the Regional Order in the South Caucasus
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
President Donald Trump is right to describe the U.S.-mediated summit between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders on August 8 in Washington as a historic event. It is historic not only for its contribution to the peace process between the two countries, but also for the significant reshaping of the South Caucasus’ security order that it has set in motion. The day after the summit, the region woke up to a new reality – one markedly different from what had existed until recently. Undoubtedly, the most significant outcome of the Washington summit for the people of the South Caucasus was the agreements signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two countries initialled the peace agreement, agreed to sign it following the removal of territorial claims against Azerbaijan from Armenia’s state constitution, jointly appealed for the dissolution of the Minsk Group of the OSCE, and agreed on the opening of the Zangezur corridor. READ MORE
- September 12, 2025 12:45PM
India’s China Embrace and US Decoupling By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
Over the past few months, a process of normalization in the China-India bilateral has taken off.
Relations between nations can be fragile. Contingent upon internal and external factors – interests and compulsions – sour relations can turn into mutually beneficial partnerships. At the same time, harmonious relations that held out promises for the future can go awry. India is undergoing such a phase of transformation and rebalancing. Donald Trump’s United States, with the imposition of 50 percent tariffs, appears to have scaled down its interest in India as a checkmate to China’s assertive foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific, endangering the Quad. China, also bruised by Trump’s tariff policy, is sensing an opportunity to not just mend ties with India, but also try creating a Beijing-Moscow-New Delhi alliance. In light of these shifts, New Delhi’s much-avowed policy of strategic autonomy is undergoing a reorientation of sorts – swinging from a tilt toward the U.S. to one that is veering toward Beijing, albeit with a continued hope that Washington may realize its mistake and change tracks. READ MORE
- September 8, 2025 04:30AM
The Washington Summit and Its Implications for South Caucasus Geopolitics By Sultan ZAHIDOV, Leading Advisor at the AIR Center, Baku and Senior Lecturer at the Baku State University
For decades, establishing lasting peace in the South Caucasus has been one of the most persistent challenges for regional states and international actors alike. Straddling vital geostrategic lines of Eurasia, this region has long been a geopolitical “shatter belt” — a zone where the interests of great and regional powers collide. External actors have repeatedly sought to exploit these divisions, employing “divide et impera” strategies that, rather than resolving disputes, have often exacerbated tensions. Not without reason, renowned scholar Thomas de Waal describes the South Caucasus as “the lands in between,” emphasizing its role as a crossroads of competing powers. According to Barry Buzan’s ‘overlay’ concept, the weakening and decline of great powers paves the way for the resurgence of past conflicts that had previously been de-escalated under the authority of the dominant power. Indeed, the collapse of the Soviet Union reopened the Pandora’s box of frozen conflicts, none more consequential than the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict. READ MORE
- September 8, 2025 04:29AM
The 2025 Trump–Putin Summit in Alaska: Geopolitical Implications Amid the Ukraine War
By Yunis GURBANOV, PhD, Senior Advisor at the AIR Center, Baku
The Alaska summit highlighted the discordant divergence between Washington and Moscow after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and exposed the limits of summit diplomacy in the context of a grinding war. President Trump reaffirmed America's formal commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and NATO's deterrent stance, but his words were typically qualified by continual calls for a "realistic settlement" with Moscow. This contrasted sharply with the State Department’s prior line, suggesting internal tensions within Washington’s approach. President Putin, for his part, sought to capitalize on these uncertainties: he promoted Russia's military successes as irreversible facts on the ground, demanded Western recognition of occupied land, and framed Moscow's actions as a defensive reaction against NATO "encirclement. READ MORE
- September 8, 2025 04:27AM
Russia — Ukraine’s Accidental Matchmaker
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Uneasy neighbours at the best of times, open hostility from the Kremlin is pushing Azerbaijan closer to Ukraine.
Russian drones attacked an oil depot in Odesa in Ukraine on August 17. That’s not unusual, but that night’s target was notable in one important sense — the Kremlin struck high-profile infrastructure owned by SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company. This was no accident. Russia had attacked the same SOCAR facility in Ukraine on August 8. Taken together with a series of other events, it has become clear that Putin’s men are sending a message. That comes at some risk to themselves and potential benefits for Ukraine. These weren’t the first or even the most serious Russian acts of hostility against the energy-rich South Caucasian nation. On Christmas Day, Russian missile batteries shot down a scheduled Azerbaijan Airways plane, killing 38 people. The incident caused uproar, not least because while the missile firing may have resulted from mistaken identity, Russian air controllers refused the badly damaged aircraft permission to land. READ MORE
- September 8, 2025 04:26AM
Abu Dhabi Summit Reignites Progress on Zangezur Corridor By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group
The July 10 meeting in Abu Dhabi between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has reinvigorated discussions on the long-sought Zangezur Corridor. Hosted by the United Arab Emirates as a neutral venue, the summit marked the first direct bilateral talks between the two leaders without mediators—a notable development given Russia’s traditional role in the South Caucasus peace process. While no final peace accord was signed, the talks were described as constructive, with extensive discussions on key sticking points, foremost among them the opening and development of the Zangezur Corridor. This 43-kilometer-long (around 26-mile-long) corridor—a proposed land route through Armenia’s Syunik province—is designed to link mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and then proceed onward to Türkiye. While short on immediate breakthroughs, the Abu Dhabi summit’s outcomes have nevertheless revived prospects for the corridor’s realization, notably by reaffirming a bilateral, results-oriented negotiation format and entertaining new ideas for its governance and security. READ MORE
Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process Gains Momentum with Abu Dhabi Summit
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On July 10, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met in Abu Dhabi, marking a historic milestone in their ongoing peace process. This summit, as the first bilateral meeting in recent decades without the mediation of a major power, signalled a new phase of direct dialogue between Baku and Yerevan, and followed a format of relations proposed by Baku in December 2024. Unlike previous talks held in EU capitals or Moscow, the United Arab Emirates provided a neutral and geopolitically unaligned platform, enhancing the credibility and focus of the negotiations. The choice of Abu Dhabi, proposed by Azerbaijan, underscored a push for strategic autonomy and a departure from stalled, externally brokered talks that have historically struggled to deliver results. READ MORE
The Limits of Pragmatic Intentions: The Evolving Story of China-India Rapprochement By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
While the intention to reset China-India bilateral relations seems real, both the drivers and the outcomes need a careful analysis.
We live in a world of constant flux. Nations, over time, discover a variety of reasons – geopolitical or otherwise – to become friends or foes, based on their national interests. China-India relations aren’t immune from this truism. The trend in the past decade has seen the two neighbours embracing each other and then falling out. And after years of bickering and contestation, the time has come again for them to explore yet another round of engagement. Is the current rapprochement merely opportunistic and temporary? Or is it geared toward a long-term solution of their contestations driven by extraneous factors and geopolitical uncertainty?
On July 23, the 34th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on China-India Border Affairs took place in New Delhi. The meeting discussed issues relating to strengthening border management and maintaining calm along their contested border. More concrete discussions on the “boundary question” are expected to be held when the special representatives of both countries meet for the 24th time later this year. READ MORE
Israel War Erodes Iran’s Relations with Azerbaijan
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
The 12-day Israel-Iran war revealed new vulnerabilities in the Islamic Republic and increased tensions between Iran and its neighbour, Azerbaijan. In the aftermath of the strategic setback to Iranian nuclear and military facilities, Iran’s conservative political and security establishment began shifting focus toward perceived “close enemies” said to be complicit in the Israeli attacks. Among the primary targets of this narrative has been Iran’s northern neighbor, Azerbaijan, which Iranian state-run media and channels affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused of providing “intelligence support to Israel” during the strikes on nuclear, military, and civilian sites. While Azerbaijani officials categorically denied any involvement in Israeli military operations and the Iranian government did not present concrete evidence supporting its claims, the media campaign renewed tensions between Tehran and Baku, undermining a period of cautious diplomatic stability that had followed earlier disputes over Armenia and other issues. Indeed, the Iranian criticism of a growing Azerbaijan-Israel alliance is not a new phenomenon and Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel have long been a source of discontent in Azerbaijan-Iran relations. READ MORE
Armenia and Azerbaijan have taken a new route in their quest for peace
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
Lara SETRAKIAN, President, APRI Armenia
Political scientists and wider civil society from Armenia and Azerbaijan don’t often see eye to eye. After decades of war between the two countries their grievances run deep, with each side blaming the other for continued rounds of conflict. But experts in Yerevan and Baku can now agree on one thing: the meeting held in Abu Dhabi on July 10 between their heads of government was a moment of respite for the South Caucasus. After months without a major meeting between the two sides (the leaders met briefly at the margins of the European Political Community summit in Tirana in May), Abu Dhabi was able to host their most comprehensive gathering in known history, attended by representatives who cover all key aspects of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Still, expectations should be managed. The two sides may yet be very far from signing a peace agreement, though a draft was announced earlier this year. There are thorny issues, like border demarcation, that remain unresolved. And there are competing visions for how the future of transport links should evolve. Nonetheless, the Abu Dhabi meeting has revived the diplomatic track, giving new hope for peace and stability, while calming fears of an imminent outbreak of war.
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How would the Israel-Iran war impact Armenia’s security? By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
On June 13, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of Operation Rising Lion, aimed at striking Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile capabilities. On the first day of the conflict, Israel targeted Iranian nuclear scientists, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials and later, energy infrastructure and residential areas. In response, Iran launched Operation True Promise-3, sending a missile barrage targeting key infrastructure in Israeli cities, mainly Tel Aviv and Haifa. It is worth mentioning that the Israeli operation took place just two days before the American and Iranian sides planned to hold their sixth round of nuclear talks. By striking first, Israel has blocked the door to diplomacy and now hopes to drag the United States into another regional war, as if the horrors of the 2003 Iraq invasion haven’t disappeared from the Middle East’s collective memory. READ MORE
Russia-Azerbaijan Tensions Escalate to Unprecedented Level
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On June 27, Russian special forces conducted a violent raid in Ekaterinburg targeting ethnic Azerbaijanis. This sparked a significant escalation in tensions between Baku and Moscow, further straining an already fragile bilateral relationship. The operation, which focused on a group of Azerbaijanis suspected of murder in the early 2000s, resulted in the extrajudicial killing of two brothers, Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, and injuries to several others, with nine individuals detained. According to Azerbaijani media, the raid involved brutal tactics, including beatings, electric shocks, and degrading treatment, prompting a fierce reaction from Baku. Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry issued a strong response, demanding a prompt investigation and prosecution of those responsible, and the country’s Prosecutor General launched a criminal case accusing Russian police of torturing and deliberately killing the brothers. Azerbaijani authorities and media have framed the incident as a deliberate act of ethnic violence, with the Prosecutor General’s office alleging that the brothers died from “post-traumatic shock” after severe beating”. READ MORE
The Organization of Turkic States Is Emerging as a Key Geopolitical Actor in Eurasia
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
The Informal Summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), held on May 20-21, 2025, in Budapest, Hungary, marked a significant milestone in the organisation’s growing geopolitical influence. Hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the summit brought together leaders from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan, alongside observer states Hungary, Turkmenistan, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. This gathering, the first OTS summit hosted by an observer state, underscored Hungary’s role as a bridge between the Turkic world and Europe, reflecting the theme “Meeting Point of East and West”. The summit culminated in the adoption of the Budapest Declaration, a strategic roadmap that reaffirmed the OTS’s commitment to unity, cooperation, and addressing global challenges. This event highlighted the organisation’s evolution into a formidable geopolitical player, particularly for Central Asian states and Azerbaijan, as they navigate complex regional dynamics to safeguard their independence and counter threats to their security. READ MORE
Uzbekistan’s Connectivity Outreach: Will India Re-Connect With Its Central Asia Policy? By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
The objective of connecting the Central Asian economies with those of South Asia has, for a very long time, been a much sought-after, and yet unattained, goal. Both regions see immense potential in connectivity projects that can contribute significantly to their national economies and bind countries in a mutually beneficial economic framework. While the Central Asian states have been at the forefront of pushing such projects forward, progress has been frustratingly slow. Uzbekistan has taken on a leadership role in the region and made Afghanistan the centrepiece of its connectivity projects with South Asia. Will India, the biggest economy in South Asia, bite the bait? READ MORE
Peace on Paper, Pressure in Practice: Why Baku Isn’t Rushing the Deal Interview with Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
In a wide-ranging conversation with Radio Free Europe Georgian service, Kogan offers a stark assessment of the much-hyped Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal. Though labelled “historic”, the agreement remains stalled. Baku, holding the stronger hand, is in no rush to finalize it—using the drawn-out process to pressure Armenia into further concessions, including the Zangezur corridor and constitutional changes on Nagorno-Karabakh. Meanwhile, Armenia, increasingly isolated and eager to sign, lacks meaningful alternatives or strong international backing. Without a neutral mediator and amid shifting regional alliances—especially Georgia’s pivot toward Moscow—the deal looks more like a tool of leverage than a step toward lasting peace.
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Azerbaijan and the EU should seize the new momentum in bilateral relations
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On April 25, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas paid a visit to Azerbaijan. This was the first visit of the EU’s top diplomat to Baku in the past nine years. Both sides gave positive messages during the visit about the existing situation in bilateral relations and future prospects. President Ilham Aliyev reaffirmed Azerbaijan’s position as a dependable EU partner, drawing attention to the Southern Gas Corridor’s steady supply of natural gas to Europe over the past four years. Currently, ten European nations – eight of them EU members – receive Azerbaijani gas, positioning Baku as a major contributor to the continent’s energy security. Aliyev also pointed to effective collaboration under the Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council and noted promising opportunities in renewable energy. Azerbaijan’s involvement in advancing the Trans-Caspian Energy Corridor and joint Black Sea energy projects with countries like Georgia, Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria was also underscored. READ MORE
External Actors and Geopolitical Pivoting in the South Caucasus By Marat Terterov, PhD, Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF
Small countries often find themselves having to make difficult choices when it comes to navigating optimal pathways for their national development. Their relations with larger powers, as well as competing relations between larger powers with an interest in specific regions where small countries are located, will invariably impact on their development. One of the regions of the world where the impact of larger powers on the development of smaller countries is highly evident is the South Caucasus, a region of the former-Soviet Union predominantly associated with the countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. These three relatively small yet important countries in a region of strategic importance have come a long way since they became independent nation states following the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991.
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Azerbaijan, Israel, and United States Seek Trilateral Cooperation Format
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On March 6, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel is engaged in discussions with the United States “to establish a strong foundation for trilateral cooperation between Israel, Azerbaijan, and the U.S.”. This statement coincided with debates in the Knesset on “Upgrading the Strategic Alliance between Israel and Azerbaijan”. The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) highlighted Azerbaijan’s role as a “strategic ally in the Caucasus region,” with bilateral cooperation spanning security, trade, technology, and energy. Israeli National Missions Minister Orit Strock, speaking on behalf of the government, emphasized the unique and long-standing friendship between Israel and Azerbaijan. READ MORE
US–Russia Talks: Implications for Armenia–Azerbaijan Negotiations
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
The promise to end the war in Ukraine quickly was one of Donald J. Trump’s main campaign pledges. Upon returning to the White House in January 2025, the president began taking steps toward this goal. The world witnessed a whirlwind of negotiations: face-to-face meetings between Mr. Trump’s envoy, Steven Witkoff, and Russian President Vladimir Putin; multiple phone calls between Mr. Trump and Presidents Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky; direct US–Russia and US–Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia; and a tense meeting in the Oval Office with Mr. Zelensky.
As a result, Russia and Ukraine agreed to suspend attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure for one month. Negotiations are now underway for a broader ceasefire. It is too early to assess the likelihood of a complete and lasting ceasefire — let alone the prospects for a comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
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Stalemate Persists in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
Armenia and Azerbaijan remain at an impasse in their ongoing peace process, facing the conditions of withdrawing international lawsuits and agreeing on a ban against third-party military forces along their border. Armenia’s constitutional claims over Karabakh and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group remain sensitive topics. Azerbaijan insists on amending Armenia’s constitution to eliminate future territorial disputes, while Armenia faces legal and political hurdles in making such changes. Disagreements over reopening transportation links further hinder the peace process. Azerbaijan demands an “unimpeded” land passage to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s Meghri region, while Armenia insists on controlled transit. This unresolved dispute continues to block progress toward a final agreement. READ MORE
Airplane Crash Exposes Flaws in Baku-Moscow Relations
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On December 25, Azerbaijan ended 2024 in nationwide sorrow and resentment following the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 near Aktau, Kazakhstan. The Embraer 190 aircraft, carrying 67 passengers from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, attempted an emergency landing but tragically crashed. Among those aboard were Azerbaijani, Russian, Kazakh, and Kyrgyz nationals. While 29 people survived, 38, including two pilots and a flight attendant, lost their lives. Initial reports attributed the crash to a collision with a flock of birds, but this theory was soon refuted when parts of the aircraft were found to bear shrapnel marks. The following day, Azerbaijani officials revealed that the crash was caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile, which exploded near the aircraft mid-flight, with shrapnel injuring passengers and crew. This incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russia relations, as Moscow refused to accept responsibility for the tragedy. READ MORE
- February 28, 2025 15:48PM
Azerbaijan’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher
This article explores Azerbaijan’s evolving and increasingly more assertive foreign policy doctrine, which began to take shape following its victory over Armenia in the 2020 Second Karabakh War and was further solidified after its 2023 blitzkrieg operation, which dismantled institutionalized separatism within its territory. Conceptualized through the framework of strategic autonomy, this new doctrine is firmly anchored in realist and neorealist schools of thought, emphasizing pragmatic, interest-driven relationships with major regional and global powers while avoiding geopolitical entanglements. The paper argues that Azerbaijan’s quest for strategic autonomy is both a response to external pressures and a means to assert agency within the broader Eurasian security landscape. It also describes Azerbaijan as a “geopolitical interconnector”, capable of punching above its weight in contributing to international security, owing to its strategic location and diplomatic outreach across opposing blocs. The paper enriches scholarly discussions on strategic autonomy with a practical case study, offering a novel analytical framework to understand Azerbaijan’s foreign policy and its potential impact on regional and global geopolitics.
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- February 22, 2025 22:50PM
Revitalizing the Organization of Turkic States Amid Global Unrest By Vusal GULIYEV, Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group and Policy Expert at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center
The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) has gained renewed significance amid global geopolitical unrest and economic uncertainty. As regional tensions rise, member states are leveraging shared linguistic, cultural, and historical ties to foster closer economic, political, and security cooperation. The OTS aims to enhance intra-regional trade, energy collaboration, and collective resilience, positioning itself as a key player in stabilizing and advancing the interests of the Turkic world in an increasingly volatile global landscape.The recent regional events and the geopolitical consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian war have had a profound impact on the dynamics among Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and the Central Asian Turkic states (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan). This shifting geopolitical landscape has been the catalyst of collaboration and integration for these countries under the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), an intergovernmental organization that aims to foster cooperation among Turkic-speaking nations. READ MORE
Turkey’s ‘Golden Era’ in Central Asia and the Future of the Organization of Turkic States By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
With the world’s focus on Russia and its war in Ukraine, China has been advancing its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, amid Iran’s political and military withdrawal from the Levant. Turkey, through the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), has been expanding its footprint in Central Asia. Ankara aims to increase its political and economic influence over the region by promoting regional stability and building stronger ties. Its objectives can be categorized as follows:
- Pan-Turkism: Turkey sees itself as the head of the Turkic-speaking peoples in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Using various tools and strategies, Turkey aims to enhance its cultural, historical and linguistic ties. For instance, in September 2024, the Turkic Academy agreed on a common 34-letter alphabet that would help the 170 million Turkic people worldwide understand and cooperate with each other more effectively.
- The OTS is also another way for Turkey to position itself in a vital role amid regional political dynamics. Central Asia looks to balance relationships with Russia and China, while the U.S. is working to undermine their influence, making Turkey an appealing partner for Central Asian states that seek to diversify their foreign relations and avoid dependence on a single external power. These states engage in multilateral forums such as the OTS and strengthen bilateral ties, such as when Turkey and Kazakhstan signed a deal to become strategic partners.
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Georgia’s Post-Election Turmoil: Scenarios for the Future and Regional Consequences By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
Georgian parliamentary elections on 26 October 2024 have been highly contested with the opposition claiming that their win was stolen from them by the incumbent Georgian Dream party. As a result, the opposition initiated a legal procedure, demanded new elections and started peaceful protests against the election result, apparently to no avail. On 16 November, Georgia’s Central Election Commission validated the results of October’s highly contested elections, despite weeks of protests by the opposition and accusations of widespread fraud and Russian interference that were refuted by the Kremlin. This AIES Comment provides a perspective based on a combination of issues that highlight not just a divided but also a traumatised Georgian society that remembers the August 2008 war and is not ready to fight Russia again nor to deal with potential Russian interference.
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The support of UN member states for Uzbekistan's initiatives is the result of systemic reforms in the country
Gayrat Khonnazarov, Editor-in-Chief, UzA news agency
The Republic of Uzbekistan has demonstrated significant success in the international arena, strengthening its active participation in the United Nations (UN) and its specialized agencies. In 2024, the country achieved a number of key milestones that underline its commitment to universal principles and standards in the areas of human rights, socio-economic development, labor, and global cooperation.
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- December 27, 2024 19:35PM
The Geopolitical Aspects of the India-Armenia Partnership
By Nvard CHALIKYAN, Research Fellow, APRI Armenia
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow, APRI Armenia
Verej ISANIANS, Senior Editor, APRI Armenia
The South Caucasus is an important Eurasian political and economic hub, as its transport networks have the potential to facilitate travel across the continent. Control over the South Caucasus grants access to the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea basin, serving as a gateway to Central Asia and the Greater Middle East. Given its strategic importance, regional powers such as Russia, Türkiye, and Iran have vied for influence in the South Caucasus for centuries. In recent years, the demand for alternative transport corridors has surged amid the ongoing Ukraine war, sanctions on Russia, conflicts in the West Asia (Middle East) region, and the resulting difficulties with traditional supply routes such as the Suez Canal. Consequently, the South Caucasus has become increasingly important as a link between Asia, Europe, and Russia.
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- December 20, 2024 09:08AM
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