Adjusting the EU's Geopolitical Posture in the Eastern Neighborhood
by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum
How could the EU best deal with a revisionist Russia who challenged the post-Cold War European security order, most notably in Ukraine and in Georgia? We should probably start from considering EU’s current strategic options in its Eastern Neighbourhood. The key question here is what should be the EU’s objective in this contested region? Is it to find a compromise solution with Moscow on how to fix the broken security order? Or is it to defend its shared values in the Eastern Neighbourhood, and to eventually annihilate the Russian power and influence? READ MORE
Turkey will reconcile with Syria
Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said that Turkey is heading to restore relations with Damascus. "We will expand our circle of friends. We have already begun to do so. We normalized our relations with Israel and Russia, and now, I am sure, we will do the same with Syria. We need it to be done", - said Yildirim, speaking on Turkish television. READ MORE
Turkey-Armenia Relations after Turkey’s Elections Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor
The outcome of Turkey’s recent parliamentary elections may partly reduce tensions in relations with Armenia, stopping the mounting hostile rhetoric of recent months. A normalization of bilateral relations should not be expected at this stage, but the trend of increasing cooperation in the humanitarian area, and in culture, tourism, and the media in recent years will likely continue. At the same time, some policies may need READ MORE
This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.
Latest interview with George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum
George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum
EGF is excited to announce the launch of a new monthly information product, the Geopolitical Trends. Written by our long-time Head of Research, George Vlad Niculescu, it aims to fill a gap I would hope to see the year 2017 becoming a watershed in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict resolution. To that end, one essential requirement is for the conflicting parties to identify a political compromise that would underpin the conclusion of a peace agreement on NK. READ MORE
Turkey-Armenia Relations after Turkey’s Elections Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor
The outcome of Turkey’s recent parliamentary elections may partly reduce tensions in relations with Armenia, stopping the mounting hostile rhetoric of recent months. A normalization of bilateral relations should not be expected at this stage, but the trend of increasing cooperation in the humanitarian area, and in culture, tourism, and the media in recent years will likely continue. At the same time, some policies may need READ MORE
This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.”
The South Caucasus between Russia and the European Union
Elkhan Nuriyev,
EGF Affiliated Expert
The mounting tension over Ukraine has introduced numerous dangers to the security situation in the South Caucasus. These negative ramifications are further exacerbated by the fact that Russia holds the key to resolving conflicts in the post-Soviet realm, especially in the absence of greater Western assertiveness. But Moscow and Brussels are caught up in geopolitical competition over the region. READ MORE
One man, one party hangs onto power in Montenegro Vasilije Boskovic,
EGF Guest Contributor
Montenegro is the only former Yugoslav republic where there was no change of government since 1989. The same political party, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), has ruled for 25 years consecutively. The party is led by Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, who was also president of the Republic of Montenegro from 1998 to 2002. What are the reasons the same political elite can hold onto power for more than two decades? READ MORE
Click here to read also "Protest virus appears contagious in Bosnia".
- November 25, 2014 20:54PM
“Towards Europe?! Straddling Fault Lines and Choosing Sides in the South Caucasus” 10th Workshop of the PfP Consortium’s “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus” Study Group (RSSC SG)
On 6-8 November, 2014, the PfPC and the Austrian National Defense Academy jointly organized the 10th Workshop of the RSSC SG at “Schloss Rothschild” in Reichenau (Austria). This workshop offered a platform for constructive dialogue among government and academic experts on the prospective roles of the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in breaking the current deadlocks in the resolution of the protracted conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh. During this workshop, a panel moderated by George Niculescu, the Head of Research of EGF, examined the background and the potential implications from the perspectives of South Caucasus (SC) states of having to make undesirable choices between the EU and the EEU. The panelists’ presentations and the ensuing discussion highlighted that, against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, maintaining freedom of choice on the ways and levels of engagement with both the EU and the EEU is a critical interest for each SC state, and a prerequisite for effective conflict resolution. In this context, Mr Niculescu thought that “the EU might work towards developing options for harmonizing the European and Eurasian integration normative systems. One of the options to be explored might involve sustaining post-conflict regional economic cooperation as a way to circumvent the dilemma of the states caught in-between competing European and Eurasian integration processes.” READ MORE. Please see the relevant post on Facebook here.
- November 19, 2014 13:48PM
Armenia's Increasing Dependence on Russia*
By Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor
Armenia’s Russia-imposed self-isolation from the democratic international community continues and threatens to have economic and social consequences for the country. Russia is increasing its pressure in the South Caucasus, raising the specter of regional destabilization. While Russia already controls the most important sectors of Armenia’s economy, it seems set to reinforce its interests in the country so as to ensure that a fully dependent, loyal Armenia can constitute a tool for the projection of Russia’s political and military influence in the region. Russia’s overt attempt to fulfill its expansionist ambitions endangers the sovereignty of its neighbors, as well as regional stability and energy security. READ MORE
* This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.”
- September 4, 2014 09:01AM
Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context A highly successful roundtable discussion on Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context took place on the 27th of March, 2014, at the European Parliament. The event was organized by the European Geopolitical Forum and international NGO partners, and was attended by more than 40 experts from the South Caucasus region and Brussels-based think tanks and international organizations who engaged in discussion in a constructive, informal ‘atmosphere of exchange’. The roundtable focused constructive energies on discussing a common future in an economically integrated South Caucasus, as a way to build mutual trust aimed at helping to overcome the current stalemate within the political and security negotiations.
As part of its work, EGF recently published a study entitled “A Pragmatic Review of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution: Could Economic Incentives Help Break the Deadlock?”. While this research was well received by stakeholders monitoring developments on Nagorno-Karabakh, the study concluded that economic incentives, on their own, could not substitute for a political settlement to the conflict itself. We were subsequently invited by Armenian, Azerbaijani and international stakeholders to expand on the above-mentioned research. Consequently, in 2014, EGF has deepened its existing research on ‘economic incentives as peace building tools in the unresolved conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh’, and has planned to publish a new study towards the end of the year. This research will include extensive outreach activity consisting of consultation rounds with stakeholders and presentation of the research findings.
The roundtable discussion on the 27th of March was the first outreach event, and it comprised three main interactive discussion sessions. Each session was initiated by a few ‘discussion openers’, and followed by fully interactive dialogue under the Chatham House Rule. Participants agreed that this roundtable should not be a one-of event, but it should lead to further dialogue on economic issues among experts and businesses, while opening a new section of Track 2 efforts for conflict resolution. For the programme, pictures of the event, and biographies of speakers and participants from the region, please click here. A more detailed follow-up report is forthcoming.
Armenia's choice of the Eurasian Union: A stunning end to its European integration?
George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum
The announcement at the beginning of September 2013, in Moscow, by President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia's decision to join the Russia-led Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) apparently took many by surprise. Firstly, because in July 2013 Armenia concluded a lengthy four years negotiation on essential agreements, meant to upgrade its ties with the European Union (EU), which would be incompatible with joining the ECU. Secondly, because until recently (i.e. the run-up to the Vilnius Eastern Partnership summit to be held this fall) enlargement didn't seem a top priority for the ECU, the focus being more on making the customs union mechanisms effectively work for the existing membership. READ MORE
- September 27, 2013 10:54AM
A Pragmatic Review of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Resolution: Could Economic Incentives Help Break The Current Stalemate? In this research, we attempt to take a more pragmatic approach towards the topic of the conflict resolution process between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. We believe this process remains in a dangerous state of stalemate at the time of writing. More specifically, we ask whether economic incentives could help break the current deadlock. In order to do this, we posed a series of questions to a notable range of international experts familiar with the conflict, asking as to whether an approach towards conflict resolution where Armenia would return some land to Azerbaijan in return for the latter providing access to regional energy and infrastructure projects could contribute towards breaking the stalemate. The “return of land”, in the context of our research, refers primarily to the seven districts of Azerbaijan which Armenian forces took during the Karabakh war of the 1990s and which remains under Armenian control to this day. We do not assume the “return of land” to mean the return of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave itself. At the outset of our research, we were optimistic that the “economic incentives” approach could offer a fresh dimension to conflict resolution in relation to the current stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh. We felt that all parties could exercise a degree of “Caucasus pragmatism” if the right arguments were appropriately presented to governments and public, bearing in mind the widespread desire to see the region “take off” economically. Click here to read more.
China and the Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Between Ambiguities and Interests Djallil Lounnas, EGF Affiliated Expert with focus on Insurgency and Trans-national radicalism in North Africa and Sahel-Sahara
This article analyses, the complex relationship between Tehran, Beijing and Washington on the Iranian nuclear issue. Indeed, China’ policy towards Iran has often been described an ambiguous, in supporting Washington, on the one hand, while protecting Tehran, on the other hand. In this article, we argue that, in fact, Beijing policy vis-a-vis Tehran depends on the state of its relationships with Washington. Indeed, a closer analysis shows that China is using Iran as a bargaining chip with the United States on, among others, two key security issues, i.e., Taiwan and the oil supply. e guarantee of a secured oil supply from the Middle-East in addition to a comprehensive policy of the US with regard to Chinese security interests in Taiwan as well as the use of smart sanctions against Tehran, which would thus take into account, to a certain extent, Beijing economic interests in Iran, are, indeed, the guarantee of Beijing’ support to the US policy towards Iran. Click here to read more.
Rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean: The Turkish Dimension Mehmet Öğütçü, EGF Expert
The discovery of large gas reserves off the coasts of Israel and Cyprus posed a number of dilemmas for Turkey. Its response reflected both resource rivalry and underlying political conflicts. Turkey and its neighbors need to avoid harsh rhetoric and brinkmanship. Instead, pending solutions of bilateral differences, they should consider interim agreements to reduce risk and allow exploration and production to go ahead in a more predictable environment. To read more click here.
Rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean: The Turkish Dimension Mehmet Öğütçü, EGF Expert
The discovery of large gas reserves off the coasts of Israel and Cyprus posed a number of dilemmas for Turkey. Its response reflected both resource rivalry and underlying political conflicts. Turkey and its neighbors need to avoid harsh rhetoric and brinkmanship. Instead, pending solutions of bilateral differences, they should consider interim agreements to reduce risk and allow exploration and production to go ahead in a more predictable environment. To read more click here.
Syria denies responsibility for deaths of 2 Western journalists Mikhail Roshchin
Syria has officially said it is not responsible for the deaths of 2 Western journalists who snuck into Syria to cover the crisis going on there. Yesterday we’ve received news that American journalists Marie Colvin and French photo journalist Remi Ochlik were killed when the home they were staying in was shelled. We are joined now to discuss this with Mikhail Roshchin, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. READ MORE
Yuliya Tymoshenko's lawyers demand immediate resumption of trial
ISSUE #32
09/26/2011
The lawyers defending former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko
have submitted a request for an immediate resumption of the trial.
“Today, the defense is requesting an immediate resumption of the trial so the court
can consider a petition to change the preventive measure,” Tymoshenko's lawyer
Oleksandr Plakhotnyuk stated on 21 September 2011. First and foremost, this
relates to the former prime minister's state of health, he added. READ MORE
Tymoshenko case hearings suspended till 27 September 2011
ISSUE #30
09/12/2011
The court in the case of the former prime minister and leader of the
Fatherland Party, Yuliya Tymoshenko, has announced a break in hearings till
27 September 2011.
By doing so, judge Rodion Kireyev satisfied Tymoshenko's request to give her time
to get prepared for debates in court. READ MORE
- September 29, 2011 18:19PM
Turkey’s European Path: A Fact Finding Tool Box By Deniz Altinbas, Assistant Professor, Ahi Evran University, Turkey, EGF Affiliated Expert
A History of Turkey’s European Aspirations in Brief
Contrary to conventional opinion, Turkey’s interest in being part of the Western world did not start with its application to the European Economic Community (EEC). In fact, Turkey’s European orientation, diminishing as it is at present, began with the Rescript of Gulhane of 1839 (Tanzimat Fermani) and the Reform Edict of 1856 (Islahat Fermani). Among many other reasons, the major aim of the 19th century effort was the building of a Western model of state and society in wake of the declining power of the Ottoman Empire. READ MORE
Armenia's choice in Nagorno-Karabakh: peaceful resolution or another war with Azerbaijan?
By George Niculescu,
EGF Affiliated Expert
In the aftermath of the failed summit hosted by the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev between his Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts, held in Kazan (Russia) on 24 June 2011, with a view to agreeing on a peaceful settlement of the "frozen conflict" in Nagorno-Karabakh, it seems that the future of South Caucasus might be threatened by the specter of a new war. Although the agreement expected from the Kazan summit was politically backed by a previous US-French-Russian summit in Deauville (France) on 26 May 2011, the two conflicting parties have eventually turned it down, placing under a big question mark the whole notion of pursuing international negotiations on Karabakh. Reportedly, a senior official in the Kremlin, reflecting president's Medvedev's frustration with the outcome of the Kazan summit, had declared: "Unless Armenia and Azerbaijan display a readiness soon to solve the accumulated problems, we will consider this mediating mission over" (Kommersant, 27 June 2011).
Ukrainian Parliament passes pension reform
ISSUE #25
07/11/2011
On 8 July 2011, the Supreme Council of Ukraine adopted the law on pension
reform, which was drawn up by the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers.
The law envisions that the retirement age for women will be gradually raised from 55
to 60 years, the work history requirement for a pension will be increased by 10 years
for both men and women and the maximum pension will be limited to 10 minimum
wages. READ MORE
EGF Turkey File Insights into Turkish domestic and international politics during June
Key Points:
- Despite the fact that the ruling AKP did not gain the electoral majority it requiredto unilaterally re-write the country’s constitution, the party continues to be the overwhelmingly dominant player in the Turkish political landscape.
- As was inevitably the case with Turkey’s position towards Libya following prolonged civil conflict in the country, Ankara’s position towards Syria is slowly but surely adjusting towards a tougher stance
- Turkey continues to keep one foot in Nabucco’s door, and the other in bilateral energy arrangements with neighbouring states. READ MORE
Court starts hearing «gas case» against Tymoshenko
ISSUE #23
06/27/2011
On 24 June 2011, the Kiev Pecherskyy district court started a preliminary
hearing of the criminal case against Ukrainian opposition leader and former
Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko.
She is accused of abusing power, which allegedly took place when she signed gas
contracts with Russia in 2009. READ MORE
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