By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

US-Turkey relations have passed through significant transformations in the last decade. President Obama started by seeking to build a "model partnership" with Turkey during his first term in office, but later he confronted Turkey over the growing authoritarianism of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The US decision to choose the Syrian Kurds as the main ally in their fight against ISIS in Syria triggered significant resentment from Turkey. Ankara perceives the Kurdish YPG fighters as a Syrian branch of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which was identified as a terrorist organisation by both the US and Turkey. Ankara repeatedly warned the US "not to use terrorists to fight other terrorists". READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

The recent normalisation deals between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan signify substantial changes in the Middle East. The new agreements were signed following substantive negotiations on several security-related issues, including Iran and Turkey’s growing influence. However, unlike their Arab counterparts, both Ankara and Tehran denounced the Abraham Accords, labelling them as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and a “dagger in the back of Muslims. Nevertheless, media reports in December 2020 revealed that Turkey and Israel had established a secret channel for negotiations to prepare a roadmap to further bilateral relations. READ MORE

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Established in 2009, the United States-Georgia Charter on Strategic Partnership is based on four core pillars: Defense and Security Cooperation; Economic, Trade and Energy Cooperation; Strengthening Democracy; and Increasing People-to-People and Cultural Exchanges. As part of these two countries’ defence and security cooperation, the US provides financial support to the Georgian military, support for Georgia’s territorial defence and sovereignty, and, ultimately, for Georgia’s procurement of US defensive weapons. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

2020 was disastrous for Armenian foreign policy. The defeat in the 2020 Karabakh war which resulted in the November 10 capitulation has sent shock waves across Armenia and Diaspora. Within only 44 days Armenia lost what it gained during the 1992 – 1994 first Karabakh war. Significantly reduced Nagorno Karabakh was effectively turned into a Russian protectorate and its current status can be compared with Karabakh status in 1989 when the Soviet Union put Karabakh under the direct Kremlin control through the establishment of the Special Committee led by Mr. Arkadi Volski. Now approximately 3000 square kilometres of territory with some 100,000 Armenians there is again de facto governed by the Kremlin, while the head of the Russian peacekeeping mission LtG Muradov had assumed the role of Volski. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The four years of President Trump’s rule will most probably remain in the history of the United States as years of unprecedented turmoil. It started from Presidential executive orders to ban visas for several countries, continued with the tumultuous Russian investigation and impeachment process, almost permanent skirmishes with the key US allies, and ended up with an attack on the Capitol, suspension of the incumbent US President’s Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts, and the prospects of the second impeachment in the last days of the current administration. These extraordinary developments may force many to conclude that President Biden will make significant policy shifts in all major domestic and external issues. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Armenia-Russia relations have been the cornerstone of Armenian foreign policy since Armenia’s independence in September 1991. Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union Armenia found itself in a multi-dimensional crisis – the war in Karabakh, a blockade imposed by Azerbaijan and Turkey, and steep economic decline. In those circumstances, Armenia had no alternative but to forge a strategic alliance with Russia. Thus, Yerevan signed the Collective Security Treaty in May 1992, Russian border troops were deployed along the Armenia–Turkey and Armenia–Iran borders, and in 1995 Russia took over the former Soviet military base in Gyumri. READ MORE

By Anna Ohanyan, PhD, non-resident senior scholar in the Russia and Eurasia Program of Carnegie

Reeling from a military defeat in a war with Turkey-backed Azerbaijan, can Armenia’s hard-won democracy withstand domestic political turmoil?
The recent agreement to cease hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh has created a new status quo in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has recovered territories it lost in the 1990s when the conflict over the enclave first erupted, in the shadow of the Soviet collapse. A new modus vivendi between Russia and Turkey is shaping regional geopolitics. Once shaky authoritarian rule in Azerbaijan is now more deeply entrenched. It can also count on the support of Turkey, another increasingly authoritarian player in the neighbourhood. This stronger and deeper authoritarian presence in the region will place significant stress on nascent democracies in Georgia and Armenia for years to come. READ MORE

By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Professor at the International University of the Black Sea, Tbilisi

As it is well known from recent media reports, a new political crisis has emerged in Georgia after the October 31, 2020 parliamentary elections. The main reason for this crisis is the fact that the opposition parties have claimed that the Central Election Commission and the ruling party “Georgian Dream” have falsified the election results and have usurped the power. The National Democratic Institute and the American Republican Institute have expressed their critical views in this regard. A relatively soft position was stated by the OSCE Office for Democracy and Human Rights and the Council of Europe. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The second Karabakh war ended with Armenia's capitulation. The unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic lost approximately 75 percent of its territories, including parts of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region within its 1988 borders. However, despite the clear defeat of Armenia, the conflict has not been solved. Azerbaijan was not able to invade the whole territory of Nagorno Karabakh and currently, some 3000 square km of the territory is being controlled by Russian peacekeepers effectively creating a de facto Russian protectorate. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Despite being firmly anchored in the Russian sphere of influence, Armenia has been quite successful in developing partner relations with the EU and NATO. In the early 1990s, Armenia joined the NATO Partnership for Peace program, and since 2005 bilateral relations have been developing within Individual Partnership Actions Plans. NATO played a key role in developing Armenia's peacekeeping potential and supported defence reforms, including defence education. Armenian peacekeepers participated in NATO-led operations in Iraq, Kosovo, and Afghanistan; Armenian troops took part in several NATO-led drills; and each year a "NATO Week" was held in Yerevan. READ MORE

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

While Russia is certainly viewed by Beijing as a reliable economic and trade partner with its oil, gas and arms exports to China, the Chinese do certainly not overemphasise this relationship. Instead, China sees Russia as a waning power with its vast territories, supported by armed forces and nuclear weapons, while at the same time prone to endemic corruption and unable to pursue meaningful economic, political and social reforms. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On October 31, 2020, Parliamentary elections took place in Georgia. Since 2012 Georgian politics is often perceived as a two-men show - billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili and former President Mikhail Saakashvili. In 2012, Mr. Ivanishvili made a surprisingly successful bid to win Parliamentary elections and ousted President Saakashvili's United National Movement (UNM) party from power. Saakashvili left Georgia in 2013 after the end of his second Presidential term and entered Ukrainian politics becoming the governor of the Odesa region. […] Meanwhile, several criminal investigations were opened against him in Georgia, and a court sentenced him in absentia to several years of imprisonment. Mr. Ivanishvili left the Prime Minister's position in late 2013, but continued to de facto govern Georgia through the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party. READ MORE

By Elkhan Nuriyev, PhD, Eastern Europe-Global Area (EEGA) fellow at Leipzig University

For Russia, China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a threat than an opportunity. Moscow is receptive to the BRI’s ability to help create a multipolar world as it bolsters China’s global stance to counterbalance American hegemony. The Kremlin also views the BRI as a means to attract Chinese investment and foster renewed Russian influence over the European Union’s eastern zone. One of the important buckles of the Silk Road Economic Belt – the overland component of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – is the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region, which represents an essential link between Asia and Europe. Developing this stage means enhancing commercial relations with six partner countries and an infusion of investment funds in several emerging-market economies. READ MORE

By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku

The COVID-19 pandemic has created interesting qualitative and quantitative changes at the top of Azerbaijan's public agenda. Following the snap parliamentary elections in February, the newly elected Parliament, which includes a number of new faces, is tasked to address the challenges the country is facing. In a speech at the opening of the Parliament, President Aliyev sent clear messages to the public servants, political parties and youth. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The November 2020 Presidential elections will probably be the most polarized one in recent American history. The society is divided almost on every critical issue facing America. The foreign policy was never been a decisive factor in the US elections. Americans mainly vote based on the economic situation. However, as the US, despite its relative decline, still remains the sole military superpower and has capacities to seriously impact the geopolitical developments all over the world, almost all countries are looking forward to the election results, simultaneously seeking to understand the key features of the US next administration foreign policy agenda. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

In November 2020 Americans will again go to the polls to elect the President of the United States. Upcoming elections could be one of the most polarized political events in decades. The American society is deeply divided between pro and anti-Trump camps. The economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 and rising social and racial tensions will contribute to the fierce election campaign. Many Americans make their choice based on the economic situation at home are not interested in foreign policy. READ MORE

By Sergey Markedonov, Leading Researcher, MGIMO Institute

Future historians will definitely christen the year 2020 as the worldwide onset of coronavirus. It seems like tons of research articles and expert reports on the impact of the pandemic on the global economy and international political processes have been published. However, it is quite obvious that with the focus having been shifted towards the global perspective, the processes taking place in individual countries and regions appear to be falling out of sight. In the meantime, all of the conclusions drawn about the comprehensive implications of COVID-19 will remain somewhat schematic and generic without due consideration of their nuances and peculiarities. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The April 21, 2020 statements of Russian foreign Minister Lavrov brought back Nagorno Karabakh issue to the forefront of expert discussions. However, Russian foreign minister did not reveal something special or unexpected. He just reiterated what pundits following the conflict settlement process had already known. Since May 2018 negotiations have been based on a phased approach. It envisaged the return of some territories to Azerbaijan and indefinite postponement of the determination of the Nagorno Karabakh final status. READ MORE

By Armine Arzumanyan, Graduate of Renmin University, PR of China

China's main goals in Central Asia may not directly hint at the region's long-term strategic importance, but the outcomes of China's engagement in the region clearly show concrete signs of it. China's emergence as the dominant actor in the region’s energy and infrastructure sectors, along with its growing presence as the lender of choice for Central Asia, has had deep consequences as Beijing has quietly cultivated the defense component of its newfound presence in region. Though relatively little studied, China's energy-infrastructure-defense tridimensional approach is of immense importance. READ MORE.

By Jack Sharples, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas

With European gas import demand having risen substantially since 2014, Gazprom has dramatically increased its sales on the European market. In Q1 2018, Gazprom reported record daily gas exports to Europe in late February and early March. This Comment addresses the question of how those volumes were delivered to the market, and the extent to which the infrastructure for delivery of those volumes was used, highlighting that, in times of peak European gas import demand, full utilisation of the Nord Stream and Yamal-Europe pipelines left Ukraine as the only transit route with spare capacity. READ MORE

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

On 17 April 2018, Armenia’s National Assembly overwhelmingly voted to install Serzh Sargsyan -former president of the country- as prime minister. They unequivocally ignored the “voice of the street” calling for a change of face at the helm of this rather small, but ambitious post-Soviet state. This vote was supposed to conclude a power capture scheme started back in 2015.[…] Under pressure from independent civil society, then president Sargsyan had promised not to turn up as candidate for the prime-ministerial post. READ MORE

By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert

The world’s future is currently endangered by numerous fundamental threats, yet Western democracies fear only one – Vladimir Putin. On all geopolitical fronts of the emerging multipolar world the Russian President has smartly backlashed against all collective challenges mounted by the West. Small wonder the West’s incessant fear of Russia’s military power has made Putin the world’s most powerful man. What is currently happening in West-Russia relations is not a new Cold War; it is not even a renewed East-West divide. READ MORE

Mikhail Roshchin

Syria has officially said it is not responsible for the deaths of 2 Western journalists who snuck into Syria to cover the crisis going on there. Yesterday we’ve received news that American journalists Marie Colvin and French photo journalist Remi Ochlik were killed when the home they were staying in was shelled. We are joined now to discuss this with Mikhail Roshchin, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. READ MORE

Turkey's choice between strategic partnership and competition with the West

On 27 June 2011, a roundtable discussion in Brussels enabled an interesting debate on the future of Turkish domestic and foreign policy. While internal debate on how to deal with internal political, ethnic and religious diversity, and on the future of Turkish democracy in the third term of the AKP government is stronger than ever, Turkey might be emerging as a new regional power in the Eastern Mediterranean. READ MORE

ISSUE #32
09/26/2011
The lawyers defending former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko have submitted a request for an immediate resumption of the trial. “Today, the defense is requesting an immediate resumption of the trial so the court can consider a petition to change the preventive measure,” Tymoshenko's lawyer Oleksandr Plakhotnyuk stated on 21 September 2011. First and foremost, this relates to the former prime minister's state of health, he added. READ MORE

ISSUE #30
09/12/2011
The court in the case of the former prime minister and leader of the Fatherland Party, Yuliya Tymoshenko, has announced a break in hearings till 27 September 2011. By doing so, judge Rodion Kireyev satisfied Tymoshenko's request to give her time to get prepared for debates in court. READ MORE

In the wake of the “Arab Spring,” Algeria causes concerns as its less than democratic past faces the region’s democratic revolutions. Some eight months after the start of the unexpected uprisings in the region, however, Algeria remains relatively stable. READ MORE

By George Niculescu,
EGF Affiliated Expert

In the aftermath of the failed summit hosted by the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev between his Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts, held in Kazan (Russia) on 24 June 2011, with a view to agreeing on a peaceful settlement of the "frozen conflict" in Nagorno-Karabakh, it seems that the future of South Caucasus might be threatened by the specter of a new war. Although the agreement expected from the Kazan summit was politically backed by a previous US-French-Russian summit in Deauville (France) on 26 May 2011, the two conflicting parties have eventually turned it down, placing under a big question mark the whole notion of pursuing international negotiations on Karabakh. Reportedly, a senior official in the Kremlin, reflecting president's Medvedev's frustration with the outcome of the Kazan summit, had declared: "Unless Armenia and Azerbaijan display a readiness soon to solve the accumulated problems, we will consider this mediating mission over" (Kommersant, 27 June 2011).

ISSUE #25
07/11/2011
On 8 July 2011, the Supreme Council of Ukraine adopted the law on pension reform, which was drawn up by the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers.
The law envisions that the retirement age for women will be gradually raised from 55 to 60 years, the work history requirement for a pension will be increased by 10 years for both men and women and the maximum pension will be limited to 10 minimum wages. READ MORE

Insights into Turkish domestic and international politics during June

Key Points:

• Despite the fact that the ruling AKP did not gain the electoral majority it requiredto unilaterally re-write the country’s constitution, the party continues to be the overwhelmingly dominant player in the Turkish political landscape.


• As was inevitably the case with Turkey’s position towards Libya following prolonged civil conflict in the country, Ankara’s position towards Syria is slowly but surely adjusting towards a tougher stance


• Turkey continues to keep one foot in Nabucco’s door, and the other in bilateral energy arrangements with neighbouring states. READ MORE

ISSUE #23
06/27/2011
On 24 June 2011, the Kiev Pecherskyy district court started a preliminary hearing of the criminal case against Ukrainian opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko. She is accused of abusing power, which allegedly took place when she signed gas contracts with Russia in 2009. READ MORE

A snapshot of Turkey’s domestic and regional politics during May 2011
Key Points:

• Uprisings in the Middle East continue to make diplomacy a difficult game to master for leaders in Turkey, with Syria’s potential implosion being a matter of great concern for those in power in Ankara.


• With Parliamentary elections scheduled for June 12, and the AKP seeing stronger challenges across the political spectrum, tensions are on the rise in the country. It is unlikely, however, that the AKP will face electoral defeat.


• The Nabucco pipeline continues to be mired in uncertainty as Brussels has not been able to persuade suppliers to sign on to the project. READ MORE

March 2011

Key points:

• In the Ergenekon case, arrests by the government on vague charges reappear, this time targeting journalists and authors. Recently two journalists were detained based on secret evidence that security officials say cannot be revealed at this time.
• Ankara continues to practice ‘Strategic Depth’ foreign policy but has largely been left behind in the Western intervention in Libya. As Syria is rocked by protests and consequent crackdowns, Turkey is largely silent, preaching stability as the top priority for the region.
• Turkey rebuffs Russian demands on a South Stream guarantee while the EU’s head of Energy, Günther Oettinger, warns Russia against intimidating Central Asian suppliers of Nabucco. READ MORE

February 2011

Key positions:

• Former Turkish Prime Minister, Necmettin Erbakan, passed away Sunday 27 February. He was 84. Erbakan, the first Islamist prime minister of the Turkish Republic, was forced to resign after only a year into his reign by the military, in what is called the first ‘post-modern coup’.

• Under the guidance of current Prime Minister Erdogan, Turkey has stayed on the sidelines throughout much of the past weeks while protests raged throughout the Middle East. Ankara is finding its new position as a dominant regional actor as having less impact than previously thought, but has been forced to act pragmatically due to the proximity of its own citizens and financial interests in the affected nations.

• Prime Minister Erdogan recently spoke in Dusseldorf, Germany, telling Turks there that while they should learn the (German) language and participate in wider culture of their new homeland; assimilation would be an affront to their human rights. The prime minister also spoke positively about Turkey’s accession to the EU, surprising some for the positive manner in which the AKP leader addressed the issue after years of European rejection.

• The Nabucco gas pipeline still appears to be up in the air as none of the participating companies have yet signed any construction agreements, while a Russian delegation has put pressure on the Brussels-EU whilst addressing its own energy security concerns. READ MORE

ISSUE #01
01/24/2011

On January 13-th, 2011, the Ministry of Foreign Affaires of the Czech republic has decided to grant political asylum to Bogdan Danylyshyn. As a reminder, the former Minister of Economy is accused of embezzlement in Ukraine. On October 2010, he was detained on the territory of the Czech Republic upon Interpol request. Later, Kiev demanded his extradition and the accused has asked for a political asylum in the Czech Republic. READ MORE

The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.

Leading Russian and international energy professionals have shared their views on these energy policy challenges in an online session. Click here to go into the discussions or here to view forum summary