By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Armenia is celebrating the 30th anniversary of its independence but whilst it has all the attributes of a modern state a lot of its institutions are hollow. There is much that can be done, and if it acts reasonably, Armenia can celebrate its 50th anniversary of independence in twenty years’ time in a much more positive atmosphere.
On 21 September 2021, Armenia celebrates the 30th anniversary of its independence. For a nation with at least 3500 years of history, this may not seem a very impressive record. However, since 1045 AD Armenia has never witnessed such a long period of independent statehood in the Armenian highland. Armenia enjoyed a brief period of independence in May 1918 - December 1920, after the collapse of the Russian Empire. However, these two and half years were marked by instability, conflicts, widespread famine, and poverty.READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The possible normalisation of Armenia–Turkey relations have always been in the spotlight of the South Caucasus geopolitics. Turkey recognised Armenian independence back in 1991 but refused to establish diplomatic relations, and in April 1993 closed its border with Armenia in response to the advance of Armenian forces in the first Karabakh war. Since then, Turkey has put forward several preconditions for normalising relations with Armenia: the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Karabakh, the end to the Armenian genocide international recognition campaign, and the official recognition of Armenia–Turkey borders by independent Armenia. At the same time, Armenia–Turkey relations were a part of the broader regional geopolitics. Russia struggled to regain its influence in the South Caucasus while the US viewed the emerging Turkey–Georgia–Azerbaijan strategic partnership as a critical tool to counter Russian efforts. READ MORE

By Ryszard Czarnecki, Member of European Parliament

Uzbek Presidential elections are scheduled to be held on October 24, 2021. These will be the sixth Presidential elections that will take place in the independent country. In the previous Presidential elections held in 2016, Shavkat Mirziyoyev emerged as the winner. Mirziyoyev is all set to run for a second term as the long ruling Liberal Democratic party will nominate him again.
Uzbekistan’s Central Electoral Commission has invited observers from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Narzulla Oblomurodov, leader of Ecological Party of Uzbekistan; Bahrom Abduhalimov, head of Adolat Social Democratic Party, and Alisher Kadirov, chair of Democrat Party of Milliy Tiklanish (National Revival), are the other leaders who have been nominated to run for the President. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The 2020 Karabakh war has significantly impacted the regional dynamics in the South Caucasus. Experts and pundits have not come yet to a unified approach regarding the reasons and implications of the war. However, many agree that the primary beneficiaries of the war were Russia and Turkey. Kremlin has reached perhaps its main goal in Karabakh – to put Russian boots on the ground, while it has also significantly increased its military presence in Armenia. Turkey has cemented its presence in Azerbaijan as now a large part of Azerbaijani society believes that without Turkey’s overt support and involvement, Baku could not win the war. Turkey also is a part of the Joint Monitoring Centre operating in the Aghdam region of Azerbaijan, though Turkey hoped to have more military involvement in the post-war Karabakh. READ MORE

By Hayk KOTANJIAN, Lieutenant General (ret), Professor of RA, RF, USA (strategic security studies), Lazarev Club Board Member

On the eve of the 30th anniversary of Ukraine, on August 23, 2021, at the initiative of President of Ukraine Zelensky, the Crimean Platform summit was held with the participation of 46 states and international organizations. The establishment of the platform with the goal of its long-term functioning was announced as one of the main events in the framework of the celebration of the 30th anniversary of independence of Ukraine. According to the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, the launch of the platform will introduce the problem of "de-occupation of the Crimea" into the international agenda on a regular political and diplomatic basis. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

Like other regional powers, Russia has taken major steps to advance its geopolitical interests in the Levant. With the goals of expanding its influence and control the vast energy resources in the region. Although it only has a naval military base in Tartus (Syria) and no borders on the Mediterranean Sea, Russia has managed to exert its influence around nearby countries, including Lebanon. The perception of Lebanon as part of its Syrian stake encourages Moscow to strive to capitalize on its influence in the region after intervening in the Syrian conflict. In the last few years, Russia started playing a larger role in Lebanon following the growing civil unrest in Syria and the defeat of ISIS. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Armenia always supported the idea of restoring communications and developing economic relations with Azerbaijan as a tangible way of confidence building. However Azerbaijan has to give up its inflammatory and disruptive rhetoric about the "Zangezur Corridor", and its thinly veiled threats to take over the Syunik province from Armenia.
The 10 November 2020 tripartite statement signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia ended the war in Nagorno Karabakh, but evidently, did not bring peace to the region. A range of complex issues remain to be settled – the future of Nagorno Karabakh, relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the security dynamics of the broader region. Given the Russian military presence in Karabakh, the region's future now mostly depends on the Kremlin, and neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan has much room for manoeuvre here. The status of Karabakh will remain a topic in bilateral Russia–Azerbaijan and Russia–Armenia discussions, but Moscow will do whatever it thinks it is necessary to do. READ MORE

By Eldor Tulyakov, Executive Director, Development Strategy Center, Tashkent

In 2016, Uzbekistan's reform agenda's fresh and rather sudden trajectory focusing on political and socio-economic development brought a welcome surprise to much of the international community. Newly elected President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, rapidly initiated policies based upon the principles of pragmatism and transparency — a shift well received by foreign governments, international organizations, and citizens alike and viewed as a watershed change in a country largely closed to the outside world since independence was obtained in 1991. A new vision of what will define Uzbekistan for future generations emerged, new horizons that will bring long-sought-after potential and opportunities to its people. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

China was on everyone's lips at numerous summits and international gatherings in the last days and weeks. "China will be among the key world players throughout the 21st century; it will be the number one economic power, and all have to accept and adapt to this reality. Many are not happy with this prospect and would like to prevent it from becoming a reality, but no one has the necessary capacity to contain China, despite the fact that many want to, for the moment for doing that has passed."
While many states make efforts to eventually overcome the outcomes of the COVID 19 pandemic through a large-scale vaccination process, and seek to return to the pre-2020 life, geopolitics, somehow pushed to the corner by the disease, returns to the spotlight. Recent weeks saw a chain of global summits – G7, NATO, and the USA-Russia meeting. The world leaders discussed many topics – climate change, the restoration of the transatlantic alliance, relations with Russia. However, the most repeated word in all these gatherings was China. “Rise of China”, “China's challenge”, “assertive China”, “China-led world order”, “China hegemony in Asia” – this is perhaps not the complete list of China-related phrases. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Russia – Turkey relations are probably among the most discussed topics of Eurasian geopolitics. Experts and pundits are frantically searching for the correct terms to describe them – cooperation/competition, the marriage of convenience, and frenemies – all these words are used in endless efforts to grasp reality beneath the surface of high-level meetings and smiley handshakes of the leaders. The two countries interact in different regions – Middle East, Northern Africa, Black Sea basin, Central Asia, Western Balkans, and South Caucasus. In all these areas, they have overlapping and colliding interests, which have created a complex web of relationships. READ MORE

By Lieutenant General (Ret.) Hayk Kotanjian, D.Sc., Full Professor (Strategic Security Studies)

The dynamics of the peace and war in the region surrounding Armenia attracts the keen attention of all actors promoting their international security interests in the explosive geostrategic space of the Greater Middle East.
In this context, the resolution of the border dispute in Syunik, and the issue of delimitation and demarcation of the borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is the focus of international attention, requires academic and expert assessment of the legality to consider the current line of contact between the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan as the starting point in the negotiations. The negotiating parties and the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair states - the Russian Federation, the United States and France - should take into account the evidence of the following internationally valid arguments. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Sunday's parliamentary elections in Armenia are hotly contested, and the electorate is actively engaged in the campaigning. But the election is likely to lead to further uncertainty and continued instability.
The official campaign for the 20 June 2021, early parliamentary elections in Armenia started on 7 June 2021. Twenty-five political entities are contesting the elections – 21 parties and four alliances (blocs). No election in the modern history of Armenia has seen such quantity and diversity of contenders. However, despite this impressive number, only a few participants have a real chance to overcome the threshold to enter Parliament – 5 percent for parties and 7 percent for alliances. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Relations with Azerbaijan will be the key foreign policy issue faced by the new government, regardless of the outcome of the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Big decisions on future relations with Azerbaijan will have to be taken soon after the new Armenian government is formed after the 20 June elections.
On 10 May 2021, the Armenian Parliament did not elect a prime minister for the second time in a row. According to the Armenian constitution, Parliament was dissolved, and the President signed a decree to hold snap parliamentary elections on 20 June 2021. It is not easy to predict the precise results of the elections. However, we may assume that Armenia will not have a single-party government after the elections. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Elections were held in Nagorno-Karabakh on 31 March but since no candidate secured the necessary amount of votes a run-off is now expected between the two leading candidates in two weeks-time.
On March 31, 2020 Presidential and Parliamentary elections were held in Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh). Elections are not something new for Karabakh. Since the mid-1990s regular general as well as local elections have been held there. However, this time almost everything was different, such as the record number of candidates (14 running for the office of President and 10 parties and 2 blocks for Parliament) and the fully proportional electoral system. However, the key difference was the ambiguity of the position of Republic of Armenia's leadership. READ MORE

By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku

At the dawn of the unipolar international system – following the collapse of the Communist system in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus – “the end of history” was announced. It was expected that the benevolent hegemony of the United States would last for many decades to come – liberal values and democracy would be spread to each corner of the world. The events of recent years and the chaos in the international order shows that the world is transforming from a unipolar world into a multipolar one. This transformation process has its reverberations in regions such as the South Caucasus. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Two key topics concerning Georgia dominated the attention of the international media and expert community interested in the South Caucasus in past week. One was the outbreak of the novel Coronavirus and the growing number of cases identified in Georgia; the second issue was connected with domestic politics.[…] However, from regional perspective the key event of the past week was the official visit of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Georgia on March 3 - 4. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On February 21, 2020 Iranians went to polling stations to elect their new parliament. Despite all the statements of Iran's leadership, including of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, of the importance of a high turnout, only 42 percent of registered voters casted their ballots, the lowest figure since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Many inside and outside Iran saw this low turnout as a tacit protest of a large part of the electorate against the Guardian Council's decision to cancel the registration of many moderate and reformist candidates. Supreme Leader blamed the low turnout on the "negative propaganda" about the new coronavirus by Iran's enemies. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On February 9, 2020 early parliamentary elections were held in Azerbaijan. According to preliminary results the ruling "New Azerbaijan" party has won a clear majority, while, some representatives of opposition, such as Erkin Gadirli from REAL, have entered the Parliament. However, the main speculation around the elections was not the name of the winner; few if any had expectations that ruling party may lose the elections, or that the process will be in full compliance with liberal democracy requirements. The key question is on the implications of these elections for the domestic balance of power in Azerbaijan, and the future development of the country. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On February 9, 2020 early parliamentary elections were held in Azerbaijan. According to preliminary results the ruling "New Azerbaijan" party has won a clear majority, while, some representatives of opposition, such as Erkin Gadirli from REAL, have entered the Parliament. However, the main speculation around the elections was not the name of the winner; few if any had expectations that ruling party may lose the elections, or that the process will be in full compliance with liberal democracy requirements. The key question is on the implications of these elections for the domestic balance of power in Azerbaijan, and the future development of the country. READ MORE

By Eduard Abrahamyan, Senior Fellow with the London-based Institute for Statecraft

Armenia’s 2018 Velvet Revolution raised hopes for a reinvigoration of the country’s decades-long partnership with the U.S. However, this relationship remains stagnant, despite the visit of a U.S. delegation led by National Security Advisor John Bolton in October 2018 and the subsequent visit of Deputy Assistant Secretary George Kent to Yerevan in May 2019, resulting in the formal elevation of Armenia’s relations with the U.S. to the level of “strategic dialogue.” Moreover, Yerevan’s decision to dispatch a military-humanitarian mission to Syria remains an irritant in its interaction with Washington. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

With Pompeo due in Minsk this week, and the Belarus presidential elections on the horizon, Moscow and Minsk have some difficult decisions to take.
Relations between Russia and Belarus are one of the hotly debated issues among pundits dealing with the politics of the post-Soviet space. Till recently bilateral relations were focused on economic cooperation, and more particularly, on the price of Russian gas and oil delivered to Belarus. In 2019 the accent shifted towards the practical implementation of the 1999 Union State treaty. The looming power transition in Russia in 2024, when President Putin fourth Presidential term expires, has inflamed the debate on the possibility of President Putin becoming the President of the Union state after 2024. This scenario was discussed as a possible way for President Putin to extend his power beyond 2024. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The recent US – Iran escalation is the hot topic for the Middle East pundits. Many policy briefs have already been published discussing the motives behind the US and Iran actions, the implications of these developments on the US Presidential campaign and Iranian Parliamentary elections. Many experts are seeking to assess the future of the US – Iran relations and the Iran’s influence in the region. Meanwhile, US – Iran tensions which fell short of a full blown war will have an impact also on Russia – Iran relations and in particular on their uneasy partnership in Syria. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

In 2019, the EU and six Partner states are celebrating the 10th anniversary of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) program. Many conferences, expert workshops and other events were organized to assess the success and failures of the EaP. Meanwhile, alongside assessments of the past, the future of the program is also being actively discussed. EU even launched the ‘Structured Consultation” on the future strategic direction of the EaP and tasked the European Commission and the European External Action Service to present proposals. Member States and Eastern Partners, as well as other actors, including civil society, academia and think-tanks were invited to share their views on a new post-2020 policy framework, and the perspectives of EU enlargement. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The South Caucasus always has quite complicated geopolitics. Russia, the US, the EU, Iran, Turkey, and China all have interests here. Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have different domestic political structures and cultures. Besides that, their national security threat perception and foreign policy goals do not coincide with each other. The protracted conflicts in Nagorno Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia make the regional geopolitics even more complicated. All actors involved in the South Caucasus seek to exploit these conflicts to pursue their national interests; meanwhile, conflicting parties themselves have an absolutely different understanding on how these conflicts may be resolved. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

”Recent waves of protests in Iran that broke out as a result of the Government decision to significantly raise gasoline prices, pose potential problems to all of its neighbors, including Armenia. One of the most critical problems can be the possible influx of refugees into the territory of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh.
Domestic instability in Iran is a source of concern for all its neighbors, including Armenia. Iran is one of the only two open borders Armenia has to reach the outside world. Any significant weakening of Iranian state institutions may complicate the export and import operations through Iran which definitely will put additional pressure on the Armenian economy. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The international security architecture is undergoing tremendous transformations. The relative decline of the US influence, rising China, more confident Russia, turmoil in the Middle East, rift in transatlantic relations and growing populism are the key patterns of current international relations. These developments are influencing virtually all regions of the world. Changes are not circumventing South Caucasus too. The region witnessed Armenian “Velvet revolution” in 2018, the protests and change of government in Georgia in June – September 2019 and, most recently, significant political transformations in Azerbaijan resulting in resignation of many key representatives of old ruling elites. READ MORE

By Armine Arzumanyan, Graduate of Renmin University, PR of China

China's main goals in Central Asia may not directly hint at the region's long-term strategic importance, but the outcomes of China's engagement in the region clearly show concrete signs of it. China's emergence as the dominant actor in the region’s energy and infrastructure sectors, along with its growing presence as the lender of choice for Central Asia, has had deep consequences as Beijing has quietly cultivated the defense component of its newfound presence in region. Though relatively little studied, China's energy-infrastructure-defense tridimensional approach is of immense importance. READ MORE.