By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On February 14, Türkiye’s Energy Minister, Alparaslan Bayraktar, announced that a new energy agreement was signed with Turkmenistan, strengthening the bilateral relations between Ankara and Ashgabat. The main stakeholders of the agreement are Türkiye’s state-owned pipeline operator BOTAŞ and Turkmenistan’s state-owned Turkmengaz. The new agreement envisages 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas flow from Turkmenistan to Türkiye through Iran via its existing natural gas network, which began on March 1. The new swap agreement is a remarkable milestone in enhancing Türkiye’s energy security and attempts to diversify its supply sources. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Ukraine is positioning itself as a key transit hub for Azerbaijani gas to Europe, a move that could significantly alter the region’s energy landscape. If successful, this would carve out a new role for Kyiv after Russian supplies stopped flowing to the rest of Europe via Ukraine on January 1, pushing up European wholesale energy prices. The expiration of the Russian gas deal at the beginning of 2025 and Kyiv's decision not to prolong the agreement triggered heated debates within the European Union as countries like Hungary and Slovakia harshly criticised Ukraine, accusing it of igniting the energy crisis with no drastic impact on Russia. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On January 6, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) announced plans to invest $7 billion in Türkiye’s energy sector in the coming years. Between 2008 and 2024, SOCAR Türkiye, SOCAR’s local subsidiary, invested $2 billion into the development of the petrochemical facilities of the Petkim petrochemical company privatized by SOCAR. The total investments of the company in the Turkish economy accounted for more than $18 billion between the same period, making the company the largest foreign investor in the country. In 2018, Azerbaijan made its largest one-time foreign investment in Türkiye by establishing the SOCAR Star Oil Refinery, which has an oil processing capacity of approximately 214,000 barrels per day. SOCAR’s steady inroads into Türkiye and further into the Balkans and Eastern Europe enable Baku to implement its geopolitical and geoeconomic interests while boosting strategic alliance with Ankara in many important fields READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On May 14, Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar and Azerbaijani Minister of Economy Mikail Jabbarov signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of natural gas, including the export of Central Asian gas to Türkiye. Bayraktar told the media that by 2030, Türkiye is expected to receive increased gas supplies from Azerbaijan’s natural gas deposits and the Caspian Sea’s natural gas reserves, though he did not specify how much. Some of the gas flowing to Türkiye will transit onward to Europe. Bayraktar highlighted that a key aspect of the deal was arrangements for transporting Turkmen natural gas to Türkiye via Georgia and Azerbaijan. In recent years, traditionally isolated Turkmenistan has begun to seek more cooperation with outside partners, especially in the energy sector. The transit of Turkmen gas to Türkiye and onward to European markets would go a long way in removing ongoing reliance on Russian supplies. While Bayraktar did not disclose the planned transit route for the Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan or the amount of gas involved, several recent developments offer hints on how the two sides plan to carry out this project. READ MORE

By Nika CHITADZE, PhD, Director of the Center for International Studies, Tbilisi

The third decade of the 21st century, along with other global events and changes, is remarkable in terms of energy. The global cataclysms and the ongoing war on the European continent have particularly highlighted the political and ecological importance of energy. Despite the vital challenges, Europe is firmly committed to the policy of the Green Energy Agreement and the way to combat climate change.
The reduction of fossil fuels was already a priority of the environmental policy, which was not only changed after the start of the war by Russia but also the sanctions introduced against the aggressor were added. Sanctions mostly apply to energy carriers, which Russia has been using as political leverage for many years. The created situation showed us that Europe needs reliable corridors for the import of the same products along with the production of green energy. This situation opens completely new opportunities for several countries, among which Georgia occupies a key place – Georgia, which is an important link of the middle corridor. READ MORE

by Dr Jack Sharples (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher)
Mike Fulwood (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)
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We analyse the drivers behind ongoing price rally and offer an outlook for the coming winter. On the global LNG market, unexpected outages meant that growth in supply simply did not keep pace with the increase in demand. Given its role as the ‘balancing market’, European LNG imports declined. This combined with declines in European production and pipeline imports to open a supply gap that could only be met by withdrawals from storage. We conclude that with gas markets noticeably tighter, the ongoing price rally is driven by fundamentals, with an added ‘fear premium’ that the forthcoming winter could be as cold as that in 2020/21. If that proves to be the case, the current price levels will persist, and even rise, while a milder winter could see the market turn slightly more bearish. READ MORE.

Embassy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the Kingdom of Belgium

On 29 January 2021 the Brussels-based media outlet EU Today and the Brussels Press Club in Brussels hosted a conference dedicated to the construction of nuclear power plants in Belarus, Turkey and Uzbekistan. Despite the fact that plans for the construction of new power units are being considered at various stages both in the EU member states-Finland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and in the UK, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, etc., the discussion was focused on these countries. Much attention at the conference was paid to the construction of nuclear power plants in Uzbekistan. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On October 3, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid an official visit to Russia to attend the 16^th annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, in Sochi (President.az, October 3). Aliyev’s speech at the high-level event touched on multiple topics, including Azerbaijan’s partnership with Russia, the unresolved issue of Karabakh, and regional security in the South Caucasus region, to name a few. Notably, during his remarks, Aliyev declared, “Nagorno-Karabakh is Azerbaijan—exclamation point!” which sparked heated discussions in both Azerbaijani and Armenian mass media and online (Turan Agency, October 4). READ MORE

By Greta K. Wagner, Student, University of Glasgow, Intern, The European Geopolitical Forum

The Black Sea is often described as a strategic crossroads, which links east-west and north-south transport corridors. Particularly with regard to hydrocarbon resources, the Black Sea serves as a transit route between suppliers in Russia, the Caspian region, Central Asia and the Middle East and consumers in the European Union. Given its strategic importance, the Black Sea is an important puzzle piece for Russia’s “energy superpower” strategy. READ MORE.

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Long term economic development may play a key role in defining the balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Last month has seen Armenia engaging in high level contacts with Iran and Turkmenistan. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan participated in Iranian President Rouhani's inauguration. During a bilateral meeting between the two presidents perspectives for developing Armenian - Iranian relations were discussed including the possibility to expand the cooperation in the energy sphere. READ MORE

Sergey Korol,
European Geopolitical Forum

American politics, in general, and its energy version in particular, resemble a chess game but according to the rules of American football. The US plans to become a leading player in the world energy market do not coincide with the interests of other major players, including OPEC countries and Russia. READ MORE

Dr Radu Dudau,
director of the Energy Policy Group Bucharest (EGF Information Partner)

Romania’s most important foreign energy policy project, the Nabucco gas pipeline, collapsed in June 2013 as the rivaling TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) won the bidding for transporting Azerbaijani gas to the EU. Hence, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) will link the Caspian Basin to Southern Italy via Turkey, Greece, Albania, and the Adriatic Sea. Shah Deniz consortium’s choice was predominantly commercial, yet it came to the detriment of Eastern Europe’s strategic necessities. But, although left with no large scale international project, Romania keeps significant options to improve its energy security on the medium term. This paper reviews Romania’s prospective new sources –internal and external – of primary energy. READ MORE

Dr Andrei V. Belyi,
EGF Guest Contributor

A crisis of international governance spreads into the political sphere and puts under peril the peace between the Russia and Ukraine, in addition to heightening tension between Russia and the West. The political rhetoric from Brussels, Moscow and Washington increasingly resembles that of the Cold War. Many ask if there are serious implications in security of energy supply, as well as in investment and trade, either among causes or consequences of current events. The current situation demonstrates a deep vulnerability of states in the face of markets, and will be analysed along three groups of energy implications: transit-supply flows, investments and effects of sanctions. READ MORE

Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher and Andrew Judge, EGF Guest Contributor

The current tensions in Ukraine have generated speculation about the security of Russian gas supplies to the EU via Ukraine. This short article analyses the likelihood of a suspension of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine and the impact of such a suspension on EU gas imports. We find that a suspension of gas transit is far from inevitable, but cannot be ruled out. The impact of such a suspension would disproportionately affect Central and South-East Europe, with this region divided between those that have access to gas storage and/or alternative supplies, and those that do not. In this regard, Bulgaria remains the only EU member state in this region that has neither sufficient gas storage nor access to alternative supplies. READ MORE

by Professor Natasha Udensiva
The U.S. shale gas revolution is spreading: more and more countries are talking about developing their own shale gas resources. How is this relevant for Gazprom? It is relevant because, with more countries developing their natural gas resources, Gazprom’s once-powerful monopoly may soon lose its hold on the European market. So far, the company’s strategy has relied on the exclusiveness of its vast resources. But shale development is undermining this very quickly. Soon, access to technology will trump resource access. Then, Gazprom’s only chance of reasserting its presence will be to lower its prices. READ MORE

By Igor Alexeev
Russian journalist and blogger for Strategic Culture Foundation and Route Magazine. He writes on the oil and gas sector, Eurasian energy security and shipping industries in the Arctic.

European countries, including the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom expressed their interest in the expansion of Nord Stream. The third and fourth strings of the pipeline enjoy the highest level of political support in Europe. As a result Nord Stream will be the cornerstone of European energy security in the decades to come.
Nord Stream Fact Sheet

• Nord Stream is a twin pipeline system through the Baltic Sea transporting natural gas from Russia to Europe;
• It runs across the Baltic Sea waters from the Portovaya Bay (near Vyborg) to the German coast (near Greifswald) stretching over 1224 kilometers;
• The third and fourth lines are planned for annual capacities of 27.5 billion cubic meters each;
• The stakes in Nord Stream AG are distributed as follows: Gazprom holds 51%, Wintershall Holding and E.ON Ruhrgas – 15.5% each, Gasunie and GDF Suez – 9% each;
• Nord Stream will export gas from the Yuzhno-Russkoye oil and gas field, the Yamal Peninsula, Ob and Taz Bays and in perspective Shtokman field;
• The cost of construction of the first two sections was $7.4 billion.

By Igor Alexeev
Russian journalist and blogger for Strategic Culture Foundation and Route Magazine. He writes on the oil and gas sector, Eurasian energy security and shipping industries in the Arctic.

South Stream is an ambitious endeavor of Russia’s energy giant Gazprom to get direct access to the EU energy market. It is portrayed and criticized by some politicians in Europe as a “dangerous” gateway to a broader economic relationship with Moscow. Remarkably enough, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary have one-by-one opted for the project.
The South Stream Fact Sheet

• Gas pipeline will be 1455 km long in Southern and Central Europe;
• 8500 people will be employed in its construction, with 770 at the operational level;
• Eight compression stations are to be set up in the main transit countries;
• The South Stream planned transport capacity may reach 63 billion cubic meters;
• The overall cost of the project is approximately $39 billion.

Mehmet Öğütçü,
EGF Expert on global energy security matters

The discovery of large gas reserves off the coasts of Israel and Cyprus posed a number of dilemmas for Turkey. Its response reflected both resource rivalry and underlying political conflicts. Turkey and its neighbors need to avoid harsh rhetoric and brinkmanship. Instead, pending solutions of bilateral differences, they should consider interim agreements to reduce risk and allow exploration and production to go ahead in a more predictable environment. To read more click here.

Martin Vladimirov,
Expert on Balkan-Black Sea External Relations and Energy Security

It has been two decades now since the southern energy corridor, linking the energy producing Caspian and Middle East regions with European consumers, was incepted. The 1990s proved to be very successful after the U.S. was able to fill in the geopolitical vacuum in the Wider Black Sea region and divert significant amounts of Caspian oil and gas away from Russia and in direction Europe. Yet the strong push for diversification of the European energy supply came to a sudden halt after 9/11. The U.S. changed its geopolitical priorities focusing on the destabilized Middle East and South Asia. Since then the EU has been painfully searching for alternatives in accessing the vast Caspian reserves. The Nabucco gas pipeline, which has been seen as the strategic continuation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) corridor, has remained only a distant dream as gas quantities available are simply not enough to fill the 31 billion cubic meters (bcm) pipeline capacity. READ MORE

by Marat Terterov,
EGF Director

1. What does Nord Stream mean for the energy security of the European Union?

There seems to be a strong debate about the impact of Nord Stream on EU energy security. On the one hand, we have the “side of the house” which feels that the project will make European gas consumers even more dependent on Russian gas supplies than they already are and that it will further strengthen Russian’s “grip” on the European gas imports market. READ MORE