By George Niculescu,
EGF Affiliated Expert

In the aftermath of the failed summit hosted by the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev between his Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts, held in Kazan (Russia) on 24 June 2011, with a view to agreeing on a peaceful settlement of the "frozen conflict" in Nagorno-Karabakh, it seems that the future of South Caucasus might be threatened by the specter of a new war. READ MORE

by Mehmet Ogutcu,
Expert in global energy security matters

The Turkish leadership has committed itself to a tough position on Israel, Cyprus and Syria, and any backtracking or sign of weakness will seriously affect its credibility at home, with regional partners, the “Arab Street” and other major global powers, as well as high stakes involved in the Eastern Mediterranean. This represents a policy of principle, consistent with the values and goals the government pursues, but is also a risky one, which if not well managed may lead to some undesirable hot confrontation. The power comes with responsibility if it will be effectively harnessed.READ MORE

by Marat Terterov,
EGF Director

Although 2011 is still far from over, it is already likely to go down in history as the year of the so called ‘Arab Spring’. 2011 will be remembered as the year when Arab populations threw down the gauntlet to their stagnating regimes, revising their traditional authoritarian power model and at long last commencing the transition to democracy. So too it is time to consider revising the European Union’s relationship with Russia, which has stagnated rather badly in recent years. Since the “big bang” enlargement of the EU in 2004, Moscow’s relations with Brussels have been increasingly characterised by tension (if not crisis) in their energy ties and failure to reach agreement in many areas of common strategic interest. In June of this year, the bi-annual EU-Russia Summit, held in Nizhny Novgorod, was dubbed as the ‘Vegetable Summit’ in the international press as Moscow and Brussels exchanged blows over the Russian ban on vegetable imports from the EU following the E.coli health scare in Germany. READ MORE

ISSUE #32
09/26/2011
The lawyers defending former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko have submitted a request for an immediate resumption of the trial. “Today, the defense is requesting an immediate resumption of the trial so the court can consider a petition to change the preventive measure,” Tymoshenko's lawyer Oleksandr Plakhotnyuk stated on 21 September 2011. First and foremost, this relates to the former prime minister's state of health, he added. READ MORE

ISSUE #30
09/12/2011
The court in the case of the former prime minister and leader of the Fatherland Party, Yuliya Tymoshenko, has announced a break in hearings till 27 September 2011. By doing so, judge Rodion Kireyev satisfied Tymoshenko's request to give her time to get prepared for debates in court. READ MORE

In the wake of the “Arab Spring,” Algeria causes concerns as its less than democratic past faces the region’s democratic revolutions. Some eight months after the start of the unexpected uprisings in the region, however, Algeria remains relatively stable. READ MORE

By Deniz Altinbas,
Assistant Professor, Ahi Evran University, Turkey,
EGF Affiliated Expert

A History of Turkey’s European Aspirations in Brief

Contrary to conventional opinion, Turkey’s interest in being part of the Western world did not start with its application to the European Economic Community (EEC). In fact, Turkey’s European orientation, diminishing as it is at present, began with the Rescript of Gulhane of 1839 (Tanzimat Fermani) and the Reform Edict of 1856 (Islahat Fermani). Among many other reasons, the major aim of the 19^th century effort was the building of a Western model of state and society in wake of the declining power of the Ottoman Empire. READ MORE

Insights into Turkish domestic and international politics during June

Key Points:

• Despite the fact that the ruling AKP did not gain the electoral majority it requiredto unilaterally re-write the country’s constitution, the party continues to be the overwhelmingly dominant player in the Turkish political landscape.


• As was inevitably the case with Turkey’s position towards Libya following prolonged civil conflict in the country, Ankara’s position towards Syria is slowly but surely adjusting towards a tougher stance


• Turkey continues to keep one foot in Nabucco’s door, and the other in bilateral energy arrangements with neighbouring states. READ MORE

ISSUE #15
05/02/2011
Ukraine believes that the negotiations with Russia on revising the gas price formula will be successful, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov has said. “We have started normal talks with Russia. We put very serious arguments on the negotiating table. Russia considered them and that is why the negotiations were really good,” he explained. At the same time, Azarov noted that Ukraine did not ask Russia for any preferential treatment or discounts. “We ask for a general European approach to price formation,” he explained. According to the prime minister, the very fact that the negotiations have been launched signals “clear success.” Meanwhile, Gazprom's official representative, Sergey Kupriyanov, stated once again that the Russian gas monopolist was satisfied with the contract with Ukraine. READ MORE

March 2011

Key points:

• In the Ergenekon case, arrests by the government on vague charges reappear, this time targeting journalists and authors. Recently two journalists were detained based on secret evidence that security officials say cannot be revealed at this time.
• Ankara continues to practice ‘Strategic Depth’ foreign policy but has largely been left behind in the Western intervention in Libya. As Syria is rocked by protests and consequent crackdowns, Turkey is largely silent, preaching stability as the top priority for the region.
• Turkey rebuffs Russian demands on a South Stream guarantee while the EU’s head of Energy, Günther Oettinger, warns Russia against intimidating Central Asian suppliers of Nabucco. READ MORE

Key Points for Policy Makers:

• The crisis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is demonstrating that it is high time for Brussels to re- think its strategy towards the countries of the south bank of the Mediterranean
• EU political initiatives in MENA have often focused on democratisation capacity building, when most of the grievances which sparked this year’s revolts on the Arab street have been predominantly socio-economic in character
• Brussels needs to devise effective mechanisms to overcome divisiveness in the narrow priorities of individual member states if it is to become a credible force in the sphere of international crisis management. It also needs to improve its early warning crisis prevention and detection instruments – or develop such capacities
• MENA remains clouded by substantial uncertainty. There is no guarantee that democracy will emerge in the recently “liberated” MENA countries. However, Turkey might be able to offer such countries a credible model of democratic growth.
• Any major disruption in the supply of energy from the Middle East to international markets, as a result of the ongoing protests and civil conflict in the region, is unlikely
• A general realignment may be starting to take place in the Caspian and Central Asian energy markets: Russian may be losing its grip over the region

February 2011

Key positions:

• Former Turkish Prime Minister, Necmettin Erbakan, passed away Sunday 27 February. He was 84. Erbakan, the first Islamist prime minister of the Turkish Republic, was forced to resign after only a year into his reign by the military, in what is called the first ‘post-modern coup’.

• Under the guidance of current Prime Minister Erdogan, Turkey has stayed on the sidelines throughout much of the past weeks while protests raged throughout the Middle East. Ankara is finding its new position as a dominant regional actor as having less impact than previously thought, but has been forced to act pragmatically due to the proximity of its own citizens and financial interests in the affected nations.

• Prime Minister Erdogan recently spoke in Dusseldorf, Germany, telling Turks there that while they should learn the (German) language and participate in wider culture of their new homeland; assimilation would be an affront to their human rights. The prime minister also spoke positively about Turkey’s accession to the EU, surprising some for the positive manner in which the AKP leader addressed the issue after years of European rejection.

• The Nabucco gas pipeline still appears to be up in the air as none of the participating companies have yet signed any construction agreements, while a Russian delegation has put pressure on the Brussels-EU whilst addressing its own energy security concerns. READ MORE

The Gorhenin Institute held a round table discussion - Prospects for Ukrainian Business in Russia - on 8 February. Experts and businessmen discussed the most promising areas of cooperation for Russian and Ukrainian business.
President of UPEC Industrial Group Anatoliy Girshfeld considers that Ukrainian business has prospects in Russia in the knowledge-based industry sector while operations in raw material sectors may hampered with strong government regulation. ‘The government actively regulates the raw materials and associated industry sectors and it won’t loose it’s hands on it. This is the main source of the budget income’, - O.Girshfeld said. ‘The state of the knowledge-based industry is a common problem to the entire post-Soviet space. That is why Russia has to allow entering its markets the companies developing in the knowledge-based industry, even in strategic sectors,’ – A.Girshfeld said. READ MORE

ISSUE #04
02/15/2011

The President of Ukraine does not agree with the statements that the fight against corruption in Ukraine only targets the people that are in opposition to the current Government.
The Head of State says the corrupt individuals, trying to avoid responsibility, are using various lobbying groups in the country as well as overseas with the purpose of discrediting the actions of the Ukrainian authorities. The President reminded that everybody should be held responsible for corrupt acts regardless of what political party they belong to. READ MORE

On January 24th through January 26th, 2011, Gorshenin Institute has conducted a phone survey "Explosions in Makeyevka". A total of 1000 respondents age 18 or older representing all 25 regional centers, Kiev and Sebastopol, were selected at random following a systematic procedure aimed at filling sex, age and community quotas. The margin of error is no higher then +/-3.2%. Results of the survey conducted among the residents of Makeyevka are presented separately. READ MORE

ISSUE #0
01/31/2011

Prosecutor General's Office (PGO) of the Czech Republic sees impossible the extradition of the former Minister of Economy of Ukraine Bohdan Danylyshyn. On January 21st, 2011, Czech authorities submitted a petition to the Prague City Court asking not to allow the extradition of B.Danylyshyn from the Czech Republic to Ukraine due to his getting a political asylum in the Czech Republic. READ MORE

January 2011

Key Points:
• The Nabucco pipeline received several pieces of good news in January, but there is little sign of any movement towards commencement of construction works. Further, Italy’s ENI has rejected any possible suggestions that Nabucco could merge with Russia’s South Stream.

• Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Erdogan, has responded to criticisms that new laws advocating the restrictions of alcohol reflect an infringement on personal freedoms of Turkish citizens.

• The widely discussed “conspiracy” of the Sledgehammer coup plot is once again in the lime light, as prosecutors allege plans by the plotters to bomb two Istanbul mosques.

• Following the release of 5 members of the banned (Turkish) Hizbullah organisation in January, a fiery security- political debate has erupted as to whether there is a link between the AKP government and the outlawed group.

• While Istanbul hosts talks between the P5 +1 and Iran over the latter’s nuclear ambitions, Turkey sits out the meeting. A settlement on Cyprus appears impossible after Turkey and the EU sit out January talks in Geneva, with some critics saying this is the end for Turkey’s own EU accession negotiations.

• A day after Saudi Arabia halted its efforts in support of the formation of a new government in Lebanon, the joint Turkish/Qatari mission followed suit, claiming that the disputing Lebanese factions indicated reservations with external proposals to help broker a deal. READ MORE

The Gorshenin Institute has asked experts about the key positive and negative aspects of the resolution on Ukraine adopted by the European Parliament. READ MORE

December 2010

Key positions:
• In recent months Turkey has witnessed harsh prison sentences and threats of litigation by Turkish authorities in response to Kurdish protests and unfavourable press respectively in the past months. This is a worrying sign in that after nearly a decade in power, AKP authorities have become just as reactionary as the military backed governments of previous decades, only this time with an Islamic tinge.

• At the NATO Lisbon Summit on November 19-20, Ankara claimed victory for swaying its allies away from designating Iran as the main threat facing the alliance with regards to a proposed missile defence system which NATO is currently considering. While Turkish government officials indicated prior to the conference that they would demand command and control of the system if based on their territory, in Lisbon, that decision was put off for future discussion.

• Wikileaks’ release of American diplomatic cables have detailed the gossip and personalities of leading AKP politicians, but offered little else that could be described as damaging.

• In regional energy developments, Russia and its energy subsidiary, Gazprom, have been opting for pragmatism over threats in recent months by signing deals throughout the region with Bulgaria, Serbia, and Ukraine in order to strengthen prospects of realising the South Stream gas pipeline. Brussels and Sofia, for their part, have reached an agreement on bank guarantees for Nabucco (the EU’s rival to South Stream). READ MORE

ISSUE #21
12/03/2010

On November 26th, 2010 in Moscow after the Ukrainian-Russian Intergovernmental Commission President of Ukraine announced that he did not rule out Ukraine entering the Customs Union (CU) with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. He added that, in order to achieve that goal certain amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine should be made, which according to him could be done either in the Parliament or by a National referendum. Earlier, in April, Viktor Yanukovych has expressed an opposite opinion regarding this matter. 'Ukraine has made a choice in favor of joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). Ukraine is already integrated in the WTO and today Ukraine entering the Customs Union would be impossible', -he said. th As a reminder, on November 25 European Parliament adopted a resolution on Ukraine. In this document European legislators are calling on Ukraine to make all effort to finish negotiation on an agreement as to the Association Treaty between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine in the first half of 2011. READ MORE

ISSUE #19
11/19/2010

Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission in Ukraine Thanos Arvanitis said that Ukraine had fulfilled all main obligations within the framework of the cooperation program with the IMF. Prime-Minister of Ukraine Nikolay Azarov predicts that by the end of 2010 the Board of Directors of the IMF would decide on granting Ukraine the second tranche of the loan in the amount of 1.6 billion dollars. READ MORE

At the end of December 1999, as the world prepared to usher in a new Millennium, in Europe and other parts of the planet, there was widespread concern that the so called “Millennium Bug” would strike, causing unforeseen disruption and havoc. Ten years on, in December of last year, for many in Europe, the Millennium Bug was just a shade in the memory as a far more ominous concern was pressing home – the prospect of another gas crisis. Although the fact that the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute of January 2009 – and its knock-on effect of leaving much of Europe without natural gas in the peak of winter – did not repeat itself during the record cold European temperatures of January this year, the very fact that European attention has become so focused on this theme demonstrates how geopolitical developments in the European hinterlands have come to impact the day-to-day livelihood of all Europeans.

Leading experts have shared their views on how such geopolitical challenges are likely to pan out during 2010 and beyond in an online session. Click here to go into the discussions or here to view forum summary

The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.

Leading Russian and international energy professionals have shared their views on these energy policy challenges in an online session. Click here to go into the discussions or here to view forum summary