By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The second Karabakh war ended with Armenia's capitulation. The unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic lost approximately 75 percent of its territories, including parts of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region within its 1988 borders. However, despite the clear defeat of Armenia, the conflict has not been solved. Azerbaijan was not able to invade the whole territory of Nagorno Karabakh and currently, some 3000 square km of the territory is being controlled by Russian peacekeepers effectively creating a de facto Russian protectorate. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Despite being firmly anchored in the Russian sphere of influence, Armenia has been quite successful in developing partner relations with the EU and NATO. In the early 1990s, Armenia joined the NATO Partnership for Peace program, and since 2005 bilateral relations have been developing within Individual Partnership Actions Plans. NATO played a key role in developing Armenia's peacekeeping potential and supported defence reforms, including defence education. Armenian peacekeepers participated in NATO-led operations in Iraq, Kosovo, and Afghanistan; Armenian troops took part in several NATO-led drills; and each year a "NATO Week" was held in Yerevan. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Russia all gained something as a result of the second Karabakh war, while Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh lost almost everything.
The second Karabakh war ended with catastrophic results for Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The trilateral statement signed by Russian, Armenian, and Azerbaijani leaders on November 10 was a clear capitulation of the Armenian sides. During the 26 long years of negotiations under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group, several settlement plans have been elaborated and offered to the conflict sides […]. However, none of them were as disastrous for Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic as the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020. READ MORE

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

While Russia is certainly viewed by Beijing as a reliable economic and trade partner with its oil, gas and arms exports to China, the Chinese do certainly not overemphasise this relationship. Instead, China sees Russia as a waning power with its vast territories, supported by armed forces and nuclear weapons, while at the same time prone to endemic corruption and unable to pursue meaningful economic, political and social reforms. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On October 31, 2020, Parliamentary elections took place in Georgia. Since 2012 Georgian politics is often perceived as a two-men show - billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili and former President Mikhail Saakashvili. In 2012, Mr. Ivanishvili made a surprisingly successful bid to win Parliamentary elections and ousted President Saakashvili's United National Movement (UNM) party from power. Saakashvili left Georgia in 2013 after the end of his second Presidential term and entered Ukrainian politics becoming the governor of the Odesa region. […] Meanwhile, several criminal investigations were opened against him in Georgia, and a court sentenced him in absentia to several years of imprisonment. Mr. Ivanishvili left the Prime Minister's position in late 2013, but continued to de facto govern Georgia through the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party. READ MORE

By Elkhan Nuriyev, PhD, Eastern Europe-Global Area (EEGA) fellow at Leipzig University

For Russia, China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a threat than an opportunity. Moscow is receptive to the BRI’s ability to help create a multipolar world as it bolsters China’s global stance to counterbalance American hegemony. The Kremlin also views the BRI as a means to attract Chinese investment and foster renewed Russian influence over the European Union’s eastern zone. One of the important buckles of the Silk Road Economic Belt – the overland component of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – is the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region, which represents an essential link between Asia and Europe. Developing this stage means enhancing commercial relations with six partner countries and an infusion of investment funds in several emerging-market economies. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Iran and Turkey have a long history of rivalry in the Middle East. As two key regional powers, they were vying for influence and seeking to expand their spheres of influence. After WWII both Iran and Turkey had an anti-Soviet attitude and participated in the Central Treaty Organization with the key goal to contain the Soviet Union. The Cold War has halted bilateral competition, while the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran has significantly changed the regional balance of power. READ MORE

By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku

The COVID-19 pandemic has created interesting qualitative and quantitative changes at the top of Azerbaijan's public agenda. Following the snap parliamentary elections in February, the newly elected Parliament, which includes a number of new faces, is tasked to address the challenges the country is facing. In a speech at the opening of the Parliament, President Aliyev sent clear messages to the public servants, political parties and youth. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

A proposed China-Iran 25 year strategic agreement may change the power balance in the wider Middle East. It may also increase Chinese interests in Armenia.
In January 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping became the first world leader to visit Tehran following the lifting of international sanctions alongside the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The visit resulted in the signing of 17 agreements on issues ranging from energy to boosting bilateral trade to $600bn. Now, discussions are underway regarding the possibility of a new China-Iran 25-year strategic partnership deal - an idea floated by President Xi, which has apparently received a warm reception amongst the Iranian leadership. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The November 2020 Presidential elections will probably be the most polarized one in recent American history. The society is divided almost on every critical issue facing America. The foreign policy was never been a decisive factor in the US elections. Americans mainly vote based on the economic situation. However, as the US, despite its relative decline, still remains the sole military superpower and has capacities to seriously impact the geopolitical developments all over the world, almost all countries are looking forward to the election results, simultaneously seeking to understand the key features of the US next administration foreign policy agenda. READ MORE

By Ong Tee Keat, Chairman, Center for New Inclusive Asia, Kuala Lumpur

On March 11th , 2020, Robert Redfield, the director of US Center for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), dropped a proverbial bombshell when he testified to the US Congress admitting that numerous Corona virus deaths might have been miscategorized as flu. This belated admission of misdiagnosis has further lent credence to the earlier speculation that many pulmonary fibrosis cases which resulted in deaths due to patients' inability to breathe might in fact have been caused by the Corona virus. These cases, where symptoms might have been masked by attributions to e-cigarette or vaping, happened well before the virus outbreak in Wuhan, China. READ MORE.

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Peacekeeping operations are one of the key domains of international relations. They play a paramount role in securing stability and fostering international cooperation. Currently, fourteen peacekeeping operations around the globe are led by the UN Department of Peace operations. Several other international organizations are involved in peacekeeping missions, but the UN is the ultimate authority in this sphere. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

After the collapse of the Soviet Union the newly independent successor states faced numerous challenges: economic collapse, ethnic conflicts, and a rapid introduction of market reforms which ushered in large scale poverty as well as a quick enrichment of very small portion of the population. At the same time, there was a constant flow of Western experts and consultants who were embedded in almost all state institutions. In the first decade of independence there was a vague but widespread perception that the ultimate destination of former Soviet republics would be membership of the Euro-Atlantic institutions - EU and NATO. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

In November 2020 Americans will again go to the polls to elect the President of the United States. Upcoming elections could be one of the most polarized political events in decades. The American society is deeply divided between pro and anti-Trump camps. The economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 and rising social and racial tensions will contribute to the fierce election campaign. Many Americans make their choice based on the economic situation at home are not interested in foreign policy. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The COVID – 19 pandemic triggered a fierce debate among experts of international relations on the key features of the post COVID-19 world. There are several predictions and assessments – the end of globalization, the enhanced role of nation states, and a shift in global supply chains. It’s too early and difficult to assess what the world will look like decades from now, however, almost all experts have agreed on one thing; there will be no return to the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s, when the US enjoyed absolute power and unconstrained possibilities. READ MORE

By Sergey Markedonov, Leading Researcher, MGIMO Institute

Future historians will definitely christen the year 2020 as the worldwide onset of coronavirus. It seems like tons of research articles and expert reports on the impact of the pandemic on the global economy and international political processes have been published. However, it is quite obvious that with the focus having been shifted towards the global perspective, the processes taking place in individual countries and regions appear to be falling out of sight. In the meantime, all of the conclusions drawn about the comprehensive implications of COVID-19 will remain somewhat schematic and generic without due consideration of their nuances and peculiarities. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The April 21, 2020 statements of Russian foreign Minister Lavrov brought back Nagorno Karabakh issue to the forefront of expert discussions. However, Russian foreign minister did not reveal something special or unexpected. He just reiterated what pundits following the conflict settlement process had already known. Since May 2018 negotiations have been based on a phased approach. It envisaged the return of some territories to Azerbaijan and indefinite postponement of the determination of the Nagorno Karabakh final status. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Relations with Iran have always been high on Armenia's foreign policy agenda. Given the closed borders with Azerbaijan and Georgia, Iran is one of only two gateways to the world for Armenia. Friendly relations with this neighboring Muslim state play a significant role in Armenian efforts to counter Azerbaijan in its attempts to depict the Karabakh conflict as a religious one and thus garner the Muslim world's support against Armenia. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On March 31, 2020 presidential and parliamentary elections were held in unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic. Five parties entered the Parliament, while President was elected during the second round, on April 14. The winner of the Presidential campaign was Arayik Harutyunyan, who received 49 percent of votes during the first round and 88 percent during the second round. However, his main contender Masis Mayilyan de facto boycotted second round asking his supporters not to participate in the elections due to the COVID19 outbreak. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The COVID-19 pandemic has confronted governments with two massive simultaneous challenges. They have to contain the virus through large scale social distancing to prevent the uncontrolled growth of infected people and collapse of the health system. Meanwhile, each day that passes with economic activity virtually suspended puts an enormous pressure on businesses, and contributes to a possible social and financial collapse. Armenia faces the same dilemma. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The COVID-19 pandemic has confronted governments with two massive simultaneous challenges. They have to contain the virus through large scale social distancing to prevent the uncontrolled growth of infected people and collapse of the health system. Meanwhile, each day that passes with economic activity virtually suspended puts an enormous pressure on businesses, and contributes to a possible social and financial collapse. Armenia faces the same dilemma. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The recent US – Iran escalation is the hot topic for the Middle East pundits. Many policy briefs have already been published discussing the motives behind the US and Iran actions, the implications of these developments on the US Presidential campaign and Iranian Parliamentary elections. Many experts are seeking to assess the future of the US – Iran relations and the Iran’s influence in the region. Meanwhile, US – Iran tensions which fell short of a full blown war will have an impact also on Russia – Iran relations and in particular on their uneasy partnership in Syria. READ MORE

By Jack Sharples, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas

With European gas import demand having risen substantially since 2014, Gazprom has dramatically increased its sales on the European market. In Q1 2018, Gazprom reported record daily gas exports to Europe in late February and early March. This Comment addresses the question of how those volumes were delivered to the market, and the extent to which the infrastructure for delivery of those volumes was used, highlighting that, in times of peak European gas import demand, full utilisation of the Nord Stream and Yamal-Europe pipelines left Ukraine as the only transit route with spare capacity. READ MORE

By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

On 17 April 2018, Armenia’s National Assembly overwhelmingly voted to install Serzh Sargsyan -former president of the country- as prime minister. They unequivocally ignored the “voice of the street” calling for a change of face at the helm of this rather small, but ambitious post-Soviet state. This vote was supposed to conclude a power capture scheme started back in 2015.[…] Under pressure from independent civil society, then president Sargsyan had promised not to turn up as candidate for the prime-ministerial post. READ MORE

By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert

The world’s future is currently endangered by numerous fundamental threats, yet Western democracies fear only one – Vladimir Putin. On all geopolitical fronts of the emerging multipolar world the Russian President has smartly backlashed against all collective challenges mounted by the West. Small wonder the West’s incessant fear of Russia’s military power has made Putin the world’s most powerful man. What is currently happening in West-Russia relations is not a new Cold War; it is not even a renewed East-West divide. READ MORE