By Aytaс MAHAMMADOVA, Energy Security Expert affiliated with the Caspian-Alpine Society

The geopolitical order of the Middle East experienced a major shock when the United States and Israel carried out coordinated airstrikes against Iran. The operation resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei together with several senior political and military officials. The strikes were followed by a rapid response from the remaining Iranian leadership that targeted one of the most sensitive nodes of the global economy. After the initial phase, attention quickly shifted to the Strait of Hormuz. Within days a scenario that had long existed mainly in strategic assessments began to unfold in practice as Iran moved to restrict navigation through the world’s most important maritime oil corridor, generating immediate turbulence in global energy markets and financial systems. READ MORE

• March 27, 2026

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On March 11, European Council President António Costa held talks in Baku with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The visit came at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty across Europe’s eastern neighbourhood amid Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Middle East, underscoring the growing importance of EU–Azerbaijan relations. The leaders used the occasion to reaffirm their commitment to strengthening cooperation across a broad agenda ranging from energy and connectivity to security and economic development. The two presidents issued a joint press statement following the meeting, emphasizing “the strategic importance of the Azerbaijan–EU partnership” and expressing their determination to deepen political dialogue and practical cooperation. Both sides aim to build on the “positive momentum of recent high-level meetings” and expand cooperation in areas such as security, energy, and transport. The document stressed that the partnership contributes to “peace, stability, connectivity and sustainable development in the wider Black Sea, South Caucasus and Central Asia regions”. READ MORE

• March 27, 2026

Israel’s far-right finance minister says Litani River must be ‘the new Israeli border’, as attacks on Lebanon ramp up.

• March 24, 2026

Trump claims talks on with Iran, as he holds off on energy attacks, but Tehran denies any negotiations as US-Israel attacks on Iran, and Iran’s strikes on Gulf nations, continue.

• March 24, 2026

Israeli analysts describe confusion after US President Trump unexpectedly shifts from threatened strikes on Iran to talks.

• March 24, 2026

Huge explosions were heard in Tehran and other cities, as Iran denied it held talks with the US to end the war.

• March 24, 2026

On March 6, 2026, in an exclusive interview with Nicolas Tavitian for “Crossroads- Belgahay”, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, and Dr. George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research of the European Geopolitical Forum shared their insights on the potential security challenges for the South Caucasus stemming from the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel. The conversation explored how escalating tensions in the Middle East could affect regional stability, energy corridors, geopolitical alliances, and the security landscape surrounding Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. While cooperation with the EU might be helpful to preventing and mitigating likely collateral damages from the war -such as massive refugees flows or disruptions to regional trade and energy corridors- neither the EU nor the Caucasian countries would have a major role to play in shaping the military operations and the outcomes of this war. The speakers recommended that the three Caucasian states should practice geopolitical hedging, military restraint, and support de-escalation as wise and prudent policy steps to avoiding the spillover of war into their region.

• March 19, 2026

By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

As competition over trade corridors intensifies across Eurasia, the South Caucasus and Central Asia are becoming pivotal arenas where the governance of regional connectivity is increasingly contested. In this evolving landscape, proposals emerging from the Armenia–Azerbaijan normalization process highlight a broader shift: connectivity is no longer just about building railways and highways — it is about regulatory alignment, operational standards, and political credibility. One such proposal is the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), formally referenced in the U.S.-brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan peace agreement witnessed by President Donald Trump. It envisions a transit corridor linking Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory as part of a post-conflict settlement framework. While not a megaproject in financial terms, the corridor carries strategic significance. Properly structured, it could turn diplomatic normalization into economic interdependence — linking political progress to customs harmonization, transit guarantees, and private-sector participation. READ MORE

• March 19, 2026