Publications
Uzbekistan’s Connectivity Outreach: Will India Re-Connect With Its Central Asia Policy? 
By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
The objective of connecting the Central Asian economies with those of South Asia has, for a very long time, been a much sought-after, and yet unattained, goal. Both regions see immense potential in connectivity projects that can contribute significantly to their national economies and bind countries in a mutually beneficial economic framework. While the Central Asian states have been at the forefront of pushing such projects forward, progress has been frustratingly slow. Uzbekistan has taken on a leadership role in the region and made Afghanistan the centrepiece of its connectivity projects with South Asia. Will India, the biggest economy in South Asia, bite the bait? READ MORE
Publications
Azerbaijan’s Emerging Role in Post-Assad Syria
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
On May 4, an Azerbaijani delegation of state officials arrived in Damascus at the invitation of the interim Syrian government. Vice Prime Minister Samir Sharifov, who led the delegation, was received by Syria’s transitional President, Ahmad Al-Sharaa. The delegations discussed opportunities for collaboration in key areas, including the economy, energy, culture, and education. The visit followed a meeting between Al-Sharaa and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev in Turkey at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, where the two leaders explored the potential for closer ties. The growing diplomatic communication between Azerbaijan and Syria in the post-Assad period reflects Baku’s recalibrating foreign policy and pragmatic engagement with the Middle East as well as opportunities presented by the collapse of a Damascus government that had tilted toward Baku’s rival, Armenia. READ MORE
Publications
Armenia–Russia Relations: What Next?
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
Russia is highly likely to remain a driver of geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus for the foreseeable future. The potential ceasefire in Ukraine may shift Moscow’s resources back to the South Caucasus and thus make Russia’s position stronger. The relations built since 1991 has given Russia leverage with Armenia, including the presence of Russian military base and border troops in Armenia, and Armenia’s membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), while Armenia was providing an opportunity for Russia to project power in the South Caucasus and foment its position as the strongest external player in the region. Over the past four years, relations between Armenia and Russia have changed significantly, transforming Moscow from a strategic ally into a problematic partner. Both sides now harbor a lengthy list of grievances against the other. With the potential new chapter in Ukraine also comes an opportunity for both countries to reset their bilateral relationship and find a new modus operandi.
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Publications
Azerbaijan-Russia Relations Remain Stuck in Airplane Crash Crisis
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On May 7, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov announced that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev would not travel to Moscow to attend the May 9 Victory Day parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in the Great Patriotic War. According to Ushakov, Azerbaijan claimed that Aliyev “ha[d] to participate in internal events dedicated to [former president and Aliyev’s father] Heydar Aliyev.” Earlier that day, Russian media reported—citing Ushakov—that Aliyev was among the world leaders expected to attend the Moscow Victory Day celebrations. In the end, Aliyev was the only leader from the post-Soviet region with otherwise cordial diplomatic relations with Russia who did not participate in the May 9 celebrations. The leaders of all five Central Asian republics, as well as those of Armenia and Belarus, were present. Aliyev’s absence raised several questions about the state of Russia-Azerbaijan relations in the wake of the December 25, 2024, airplane crash. READ MORE
