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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Thursday 3 July 2025

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Context
Publications West Can’t Help Ukraine Win the War — but it Could Help End it

Elkhan NURIYEV By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in Berlin

As the war in Ukraine drags on for yet another year, a hard truth is becoming even harder to ignore: Military victory may no longer be a realistic objective for Kyiv — no matter how many billions the West sends, or how many Russian soldiers die. This isn’t a popular outlook in Washington or Brussels, where the assumption persists that enough aid and resolve will eventually break Moscow. But despite Ukraine’s extraordinary resilience and the West’s deep pockets, that outcome is looking increasingly unlikely. Rather, the war is hardening into a grinding stalemate — one that threatens to exhaust Ukraine, fracture Western unity and empower the very regime it was meant to weaken. The question Western policymakers must now confront is not whether Ukraine deserves support, but whether the current strategy is helping it win, or simply helping it survive long enough to lose more slowly. READ MORE

  • July 3, 2025
Publications India’s Balancing Act in the Iran-Israel War: A Case for Peace-making?

Shanthie Mariet D’Souza By Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

Yoga, which originated in ancient India, features many asanas (physical postures) focused on enabling the human body to find a fine balance, while stretching the limbs to achieve maximum flexibility. India uses yoga as a tool of its soft power, celebrating International Yoga Day on June 21 every year, and the present Indian foreign policy making often mirrors such asanas. When faced with stark situations such as taking sides between warring states, New Delhi tends to fall back on a balancing act, avoiding taking sides and advocating diplomacy and de-escalation. However, finding the right balance in matters of statecraft is a tough task, particularly when one side has been perceived to be favoured over the other in the past, but those warm relations are no longer the same. India’s stance on the Israel-Iran conflict contains many such contradictions. READ MORE

  • July 3, 2025
News EU leaders meet to discuss sanctions, tariffs, and Middle East policy

EU leaders gather in Brussels to address sanctions on Russia, US tariffs, and Middle East conflicts.

  • June 27, 2025
News Why is NATO boosting defence spending and can Europe afford it?

In a political win for US President Donald Trump, NATO member states have endorsed a big new defence spending target.

  • June 27, 2025
News Trump says US has signed trade deal with China

China’s Ministry of Commerce says the two sides “further confirmed the details of the framework.”

  • June 27, 2025
News Trump with NATO ‘all the way’ on Article 5 as leaders gather at summit

President Donald Trump previously said the US commitment to mutual defence guarantees ‘depends on your definition’.

  • June 26, 2025
News Trump compares Iran strikes to Hiroshima and Nagasaki

US President Donald Trump has compared the US strikes in Iran to the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, telling reporters at the NATO summit in The Hague the attacks “ended the war” and prevented further conflict.

  • June 26, 2025
News Iran attacks overshadow NATO summit on new defence spending deal

At the NATO summit US President Trump claimed Iran’s nuclear sites were “obliterated,” contradicting a leaked US intelligence report. NATO allies have agreed to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Al Jazeera’s James Bays reports.

  • June 26, 2025
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