Publications
The Acceleration of Putin’s Shadow War
By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Air incursions, military drills, and escalating hybrid warfare hint at a new and alarming level of Russian aggression. Is it just for show?
Russia and Belarus held joint military drills in September. But the biennial exercises were overshadowed by something that may be more ominous — an outbreak of drone and aerial incursions across Poland and the Nordic-Baltic states that illustrate NATO members’ vulnerability to disabling attacks on fragile systems like civil airports. Zapad-2025 is an established Kremlin method of baring its military teeth to its near-neighbours. The official reason for September’s large-scale exercises is to test the ability of the two countries to repel an enemy attack, retake lost territory and secure the borders of what they refer to as their “Union State”. They have often triggered alarm across the NATO alliance, particularly in the Baltic states and Poland, which have a deep historical and recent sensitivity to Kremlin aggression. READ MORE
Publications
Economic Implications of the Washington Declaration for Azerbaijan and Armenia
By Aytaс Mahammadova, Energy Security Expert affiliated with the Caspian-Alpine Society
The Washington Declaration of August 2025 marks a turning point for the South Caucasus, unlocking unprecedented economic opportunities through peace, open borders, and the TRIPP corridor. Enhanced trade, investment, and energy cooperation promise regional integration, job creation, and sustainable growth, positioning Azerbaijan, and Armenia as key hubs in global value chains.
The historic Washington Declaration of August 8, 2025, represents a transformative moment not only for regional stability but for the economic prosperity of the entire South Caucasus region. The establishment of sustainable peace between these two nations unlocks unprecedented economic opportunities that extend far beyond the immediate benefits of ending hostilities, creating a foundation for long-term economic integration, infrastructure development, and regional cooperation that could serve as a model for conflict resolution worldwide. The economic dividends of peace are multifaceted, encompassing direct benefits from increased foreign investment, enhanced trade relationships, and the opening of previously closed borders, as well as indirect benefits from improved regional stability, and the ability to redirect resources from defence to productive economic activities. READ MORE
Publications
Trump’s Bagram Claims and the Taliban’s Foreign Policy Choices 
By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
On September 21, the Taliban rebuffed U.S. President Donald Trump for the second time in the last nine months. A day earlier, Trump had demanded control of Bagram air base in Afghanistan and had even threatened “bad things” if his demand wasn’t entertained. The Taliban spokesperson was categorical in his September 23 reply: “We will never agree to bargain away or hand over any part of our country.” On being summoned for an emergency meeting by Emir Hibatullah Akhunzada following Trump’s comments, Taliban defence and foreign ministers and intelligence chiefs rushed to Kandahar. There were separate meetings as well among the Taliban leadership. The recent rejection of Trump’s vague threats didn’t occur in a vacuum. READ MORE
Publications
Stories of Resilience and Innovation: Women in Afghanistan Under the Taliban By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)
The dominant narrative on women in Afghanistan, one that appears fairly regularly in international media, is a story of restrictions, denial, and loss of rights. Under the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate, the rights of women are under siege. It is arguably one of the key reasons why the regime’s yearning for broad international recognition is yet to actualize. However, what is often missed are the stories of courage, adaptation, and resilience by Afghan women who, while living within those structural constraints, are trying to make a difference. And to an extent, even the de facto Taliban authorities acknowledge this reality. Any hope that things would change for the better in the future must take note of these windows of opportunities and build on the agency exhibited by women inside Afghanistan who are navigating a complex terrain. READ MORE
