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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Saturday 14 March 2026

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Context
News How Trump’s 2026 Iran ‘war’ script echoes and twists the 2003 Iraq playbook

Analysts say the US administration is recycling the rhetoric of 2003 to justify a new escalation against Iran, but with a fractured team, isolated diplomacy, and a dangerous ‘information chaos’.

  • February 27, 2026
News Canadian PM Carney heads to India on ‘significant’ trip to consolidate ties

Carney’s trip comes at a time when he’s looking for new markets for Canadian exports to diversify from the US.

  • February 27, 2026
News India and Israel pledge to boost cooperation on trade, defence

Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel has drawn criticism at home amid tensions over Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

  • February 26, 2026
News Trump U-turn: Is Venezuelan oil really available to Cuba again?

The US says it will licence entities to sell the oil to Cuba except those linked to the Cuban government and military.

  • February 26, 2026
News Denmark’s PM Mette Frederiksen calls parliamentary election on March 24

Announcement comes as Frederiksen aims to build on rising support for her stance against US efforts to seize Greenland.

  • February 26, 2026
Publications After the visit of US Vice President JD Vance, the South Caucasus is being rewired

Vasif HUSEYNOV By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s February 9–11 visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan marked a structural turning point in the South Caucasus. Unlike previous high-level engagements of the United States that generated rhetorical alignment but limited follow-through, this visit embedded the region into long-term American economic, technological, and strategic frameworks. Taking place on the heels of the latest agreement (January 14) between Washington and Yerevan on the implementation framework for the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), the visit served to consolidate the American influence in the region and taking it to higher levels. The consequences are unfolding along two axes: domestically, within Armenia and Azerbaijan’s political economies; and geopolitically, in the region’s recalibrating balance between the United States and Russia, with Georgia seeking entry into the new configuration. READ MORE

  • February 25, 2026
Publications Zangezur Energy Corridor Enhancing Regional Energy Connectivity

Vusal GULIYEV By Vusal GULIYEV, Leading Advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)

On January 29, construction formally commenced on a new high-voltage transmission system led by Azer Enerji. The project, known as the “Zangezur Energy Corridor,” will integrate Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic into Baku’s national power grid via the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), also known as the Zangezur Corridor. The project will also establish the technical foundations for a future Azerbaijan–Türkiye–Europe electricity corridor. This initiative is one part of Baku’s push to strengthen its role in transregional electricity connectivity, which favours corridor development over isolated infrastructure investment. The launch of the Zangezur Energy Corridor positions Azerbaijan as a regional electricity hub linking Asia and Europe. READ MORE

  • February 25, 2026
Publications Watching TRIPP: China and the art of strategic patience

Yeghia TASHJIAN By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

China’s position on the TRIPP (Trump’s Route for International Peace and Prosperity) has been cautious and low-profile, shaped less by enthusiasm for the project itself than by Beijing’s overall policy toward the South Caucasus and the region’s geopolitical rivalries. From China’s perspective, TRIPP is not mutually exclusive with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). From the U.S. perspective, however, the project carries geopolitical weight, aimed at containing or counterbalancing Russian, Iranian and Chinese influence in Eurasia.
China has evaluated TRIPP primarily through the lens of risk management, given that the route traverses border regions historically vulnerable to conflict and border tensions and lies at the intersection of regional rivalries. This helps explain why Beijing has avoided any public endorsement, opting instead for rhetorical neutrality and a wait-and-see approach — signalling that economic connectivity must be inclusive, territorial integrity respected, trade depoliticized and cooperation insulated from zero-sum geopolitical competition. READ MORE

  • February 18, 2026
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