Publications
Iran–Israel War’s Implications for Armenia
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia
The June 2025 12-day Iran–Israel War and US military strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites created shock waves in the Middle East and beyond. Iran and Israel exchanged strikes twice in 2024, but these were limited and mostly symbolic operations. While the war did not solve critical issues between Iran and Israel, and there is a possibility of another escalation, it demonstrated the volatile nature of Middle Eastern geopolitics, shaped by evolving balance of power. Armenia is a neighbour of Iran, and this fact alone is enough to mean that Armenia will be affected by any Iran–Israel confrontation. However, there are other factors that can amplify the implications for Armenia of a potential long-term war against Iran.
READ MORE
Publications
Kazakhstan Aims to Modernize Military Through Multi-Vector Diplomacy
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Kazakhstan has recently been making steps to improve its defence capabilities. In April 2025, the Kazakh Ministry of Defence confirmed that a legislative framework was established to regulate the Defence Industry Development Fund, which was created in December 2023. The new defence fund aims to acquire and manufacture domestically crucial military hardware, such as artillery ammunition, weapons systems, and combat modules. For this purpose, the Kazakh government plans to allocate approximately $265 million from the state budget. Earlier, on March 3, Kazakh Defence Minister Ruslan Zhaksylykov announced the establishment of a new defence industry centre at the only tank repair plant in Central Asia in the Eastern city of Semey. Zhaksylykov proclaimed that the new hub aims to strengthen “Kazakhstan’s self-sufficiency in defence production” through “expanding the ability to both maintain and manufacture crucial military technologies locally”. As the regional order in Eurasia shifts amid Russia’s war against Ukraine, Kazakhstan is opting to rely on its armed forces, domestic military resources, and international security partnership formats to counter any potential threat. READ MORE
Publications
West Can’t Help Ukraine Win the War — but it Could Help End it 
By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in Berlin
As the war in Ukraine drags on for yet another year, a hard truth is becoming even harder to ignore: Military victory may no longer be a realistic objective for Kyiv — no matter how many billions the West sends, or how many Russian soldiers die. This isn’t a popular outlook in Washington or Brussels, where the assumption persists that enough aid and resolve will eventually break Moscow. But despite Ukraine’s extraordinary resilience and the West’s deep pockets, that outcome is looking increasingly unlikely. Rather, the war is hardening into a grinding stalemate — one that threatens to exhaust Ukraine, fracture Western unity and empower the very regime it was meant to weaken. The question Western policymakers must now confront is not whether Ukraine deserves support, but whether the current strategy is helping it win, or simply helping it survive long enough to lose more slowly. READ MORE
