Withdrawal of the US Troops from Syria and its Impact on the Security Environment in the Black Sea Region
By Nika Chitadze, PhD, Director, Center for International Studies, International Black Sea University, Tbilisi
As it is known, US President Donald Trump recently adopted a decision on the withdrawal of about two thousands American military serviceman from Syria. It is possible that one of the main purposes of the American contingent’s withdrawal is the restoration of closer relations between USA and Turkey and the prevention of strengthening cooperation between Moscow and Ankara. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 28.01.2019
| Security
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Uncertainties and Weaknesses in International Security Around the Black Sea Region
By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
It can be ascertained that until the Russian illegal annexation of Crimea, in March 2014, the Black Sea Region was perceived as a region with certain problems, but certainly not of a military nature. As a result, this region was neither high on the international community agenda nor on the radar screen of the NATO member states, and that despite membership of Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey in NATO. Furthermore, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government thought back in 2014 that they were capable to handle President Vladimir Putin’s Russia single-handed, NATO assistance was not required, and non-NATO members such as Georgia and Ukraine should not be involved. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 24.01.2019
| Security
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Ceasefire Violations Down as Armenia and Azerbaijan Implement South Caucasus Study Group Recommendation By EGF Editorial Staff
Since the end of October 2018, a new operative communication line (crisis hotline) has been established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two countries that have been at war over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), a region recognized as Azerbaijani by the International Community, but inhabited by a majority Armenian population.
According to official sources from both sides, the level of military tension on the Line of Contact (LoC) between the conflicting parties has significantly decreased (from about 90 reports of ceasefire breaches/day, to about 20 reports/day). The opening of this new communication channel had been agreed several weeks before by the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime-Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, during an informal meeting held in the margins of the CIS summit in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) on 27-28 September 2018. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 11.12.2018
| Security
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Armenia’s Unique Geopolitical Reality: An Asset for NATO’s Stability Projection Southwards
By Vahagn AFYAN, Deputy head of Mission, Embassy of the Republic of Armenia to Poland
How can Armenia’s geopolitical context contribute to stability in its immediate vicinity and in NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood?
This paper will consider Armenia’s geopolitical location from the perspective of NATO’s Southern neighbourhood and examine its cohesion, dependability and potential contribution to NATO’s intended task of projecting stability. With regard to NATO and its relationship with Armenia, the first step is to create a better understanding of the particularities of the country and its policy. Increased knowledge of the ongoing integration processes affecting various political, economic and military aspects, as well as internal political developments, will allow a full exploration of the potential for strategic partnership between the Alliance and Armenia. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 18.09.2018
| Security
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Russia’s Policy of Deception and Denial By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
A policy of deception and denial is the cornerstone of Russia‘s overarching strategy of confusion, paralysis and ultimately defeat of the opponent.
Consistency, conviction and perseverance are key words to describe the policy of deception and denial. The cases presented below shed light on the consistent pattern of President Vladimir Putin’s government to deceive others and depict Russia as the one that comes to the aid of the underdogs, whether in Georgia, Ukraine or elsewhere. Syria is a special case where Russia cannot abandon its military bases to aggressive Western powers. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 10.09.2018
| Security
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Russian Aerospace Forces and the Syria Campaign: An Assessment
By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
There is no doubt whatsoever that the lion’s share of the Russian defence budget funds for the years 2011–20 was allocated to the Aerospace Forces (VKS – Vozdushno-Kosmicheskiye Sily) namely, RUR4 trillion out of total RUR19 trillion 1 (or 21 per cent of budget sum US$ 337 billion). The level of financial allocations clearly highlighted the armed forces priority in the eyes of President Vladimir Putin and the top military brass. The forces proved to be a crucial tool in the hands of President Putin and the military establishment. And the VKS continue to play an important role in President Putin’s overall military strategy in particular after a successful operation in Syria. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 28.05.2018
| Security
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The Realities Against Armenia’s "Nagorno-Karabakh Strategy of Pre-emption"
By professor Sadi Sadiyev Saleh, War College of the Armed Forces, Republic of Azerbaijan
An Armenian author, Benyamin Poghosyan, blamed Azerbaijan for lingering Nagorno-Karabach conflict in his recently published paper on “Armenia’s Karabakh Strategy, from Status Quo to Pre-emption”. It is abundantly clear that he hadn’t referred to any legal or reliable documents when he developed that paper. In order to come to grips with this issue we should hark back to the origin of the conflict. We will be focusing on three stages to let you digest the whole information: Where did this issue emanate from? What is the current situation? What are the prospects of future detente? READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 17.05.2018
| Security
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What Next in Iran?
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
On May 8, US President Donald Trump made the decision to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). This was done despite all efforts of European leaders to convince Trump to stay in. The President of France and German Chancellor Merkel visited Washington late April and UK Foreign Secretary Johnson was in DC on May 6-7. However, all failed to reach an agreement with the US President. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 16.05.2018
| Security
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The Regional Security Situation Remains Challenging in the South Caucasus
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The South Caucasus is facing multiple security challenges with no clear path to overcome them in the foreseeable future. The conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are hampering any efforts to have an inclusive regional cooperation, and are the key reasons for the strained Russia - Georgia relations and absence of relations between Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, there are no immediately apparent ways to move towards the settlement of these conflicts. Russia deployed military bases in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and demanded from Georgia to accept the geopolitical facts on the ground. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 09.05.2018
| Security
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What Next in Syria?
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The April 14 US, UK and France joint strikes in Syria and the heated debates in the UN Security Council just before and after the military action once more emphasized the growing disagreements between Russia and the Western powers on Syria. However, the targeted and limited military strikes have no ability to alter the course of the conflict. Since the launch of the Russian military operation in September 2015, Syrian government forces, with the active support of Russian and Iranian units, have made tangible successes, including the establishment of full control over Aleppo and pushing back rebel groups from the suburbs of Damascus. READ MORE
- EGF Editor |
Published on EGF: 01.05.2018
| Security
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