Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during July 2012
Key Points:

• Syria is in the grips of a full fledged civil war, with opposition forces assassinating the country’s minister of defense and other high ranking officials in a Damascus meeting of senior regime officials.
• Fighting has escalated near the Turkish-Syrian border. Turkish military units are being deployed as a precaution, especially in light of reports of PKK forces seizing portions of northern Syria.
• Oil exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq to Turkey continues to draw the ire of government officials in Baghdad. However, despite the disputes, cooperation on projects will likely continue.
• Azerbaijan’s energy minister weighed into the NABUCCO West Vs TAP debate, saying the former was the best option for delivering Shah Deniz gas to Europe.

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 06.08.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during June 2012 Key Points:

• Syria shoots down a Turkish military plane, greatly heightening tensions between the countries.
• Although Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan threatens action in response to any further threats from Syria, domestic opinion polls from just prior to the incident show a Turkish public hesitant to confront the Assad regime.
• Meanwhile, the CHP and AKP party leadership meets in an attempt to revive reconciliation efforts with the country’s Kurdish minority.
• As constitution discussions continue, Erdogan’s statements on the necessity of a strong presidential office worries his critics who fear he will take over and extend his reign as head of the country following the end of his term as prime minister.
• In the energy sector, Azerbaijan and Turkey appear to have finalized the TANAP pipeline agreement while Turkish Energy Minister, Taner Yildiz, discusses the future of nuclear power in Turkey at the World Economic Forums.

• EGF Editorial  |   |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during May 2012

Key Points:

• Turkey expels Syrian diplomats after the massacre of over 100 people in Houla. Although Ankara is rumoured in some circles to be harbouring remnants of the Syrian opposition military forces, overt Turkish intervention in Syria remains unlikely at the time of writing.
• Ankara increases its cooperation with the Kurdish Regional Government in Erbil, while also harbouring a high level, fugitive Sunni Iraqi politician. Tensions between Baghdad and Turkey continue to deteriorate over the two issues.
• The ongoing coup and terrorist investigations roiling the country have Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan concerned. The prime minister urged for the probes to speed up for the good of the country.
• Erdogan sparks a fierce debate in Turkey over his remarks on abortion rights.
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• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 13.06.2012  |  External Relations
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during April 2012

Key Points:

• Turkey continues to work with Arab and Western allies to intensify pressure on Syria. After hosting the 1 April 2012, Friends of Syria group meeting, Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan responds to Syrian forces firing on a Turkish refugee camp by openly considering invoking NATO’s Article 5 on mutual defence.
• The Fethullah Gulen Movement’s influence on Turkey is re-examined following a somewhat controversial expose in the 24 April edition of The New York Times.
• A pricing dispute between the Kurdish Autonomous Government in Northern Iraq and the national government threatens Turkish crude supplies, while the TANAP pipeline agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkey should be signed by the end of the month.
• NABUCCO loses a Hungarian stakeholder while Turkish gas pipelines operator, BOTAS, cuts down its own stake in Brussels’ pipeline project. However, all is not lost in breaking Gazprom’s dominant grip on European gas supplies, as TANAP will likely connect to the revamped NABUCCO West project.
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• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 12.05.2012  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during March 2012

Key Points:

• Turkey closes its embassy in Syria and openly discusses establishing buffer zones inside its southern neighbour for refugees fleeing the conflict zones.
• There is discontent within Turkey’s Shia Muslim minority about the AKP government’s criticism of the Alawite Assad regime, raising concern about possible ethnic tension in areas near the Turkey-Syria border.
• Turkey releases two high profile journalists under investigation in the Ergenekon trial, but opens a second investigation into comments made by one of them to the press upon his release.
• Iraqi leaders envisage future export routes for the country’s oil through Turkey in case of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the two countries’ economic ties grow as the Kurdish north becomes a prime export market for Turkish products.
• Turkey will go forward with its lawsuit against Iran for short-supplying on a natural gas contract.
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• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 20.04.2012  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
February 2012

Key Points:

• A crisis erupted between state prosecutors and the intelligence service, when members from the latter refused to turn up for questioning regarding an investigation into ties to the PKK. The intervention of prime minister and the parliament have calmed matters for now, but some experts speculate the incident is a result of a break between the AKP and the Gulenist movement.
• Bloodshed in Syria continues while Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu travels to capitals throughout the world in an attempt to drum up support for an UN resolution to stop the violence there. Syrian refugees continue to flood into Turkey’s southern provinces, where the Free Syrian Army is said to be organizing the armed resistance to the regime in Damascus.
• France’s Constitutional Council invalidates the Armenian Genocide draft law passed in January, though both presidential candidates have vowed to push a reworded version upon entering office.
• The cold spell in Turkey shows the weakness in the country’s position as a net importer of gas, while supply issues with Azerbaijan and Iran drastically cut imports amidst increased use in the month. Energy Minister Taner Yildiz met with NABUCCO’s board of partners to discuss the link up of it and TANAP.
READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 08.03.2012  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics
January 2012

Key Points:

• Russia’s Gazprom announces that the South Stream gas pipeline project will begin construction ahead of schedule in December 2012, putting NABUCCO in an increasingly precarious position.
• Turkey slips further down the rankings of the media watchdog, Reporters Without Borders, press freedom rankings, now 148 out of 178 countries. This development comes following the fifth anniversary of the killing of writer Hrant Dink and a ruling in the case of his death stating that it was not the result of organized crime.
• Former Turkish Military (TSK) Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug, was arrested on charges of supporting websites that were part of a conspiracy to overthrow the government. The military remains quiet on the matter, indicating that the ruling AKP government has triumphed in keeping the TSK under full civilian control. But the wide swath of those accused of complicity in conspiracy investigations continues to draw criticism at home and abroad.
• Both houses of the French parliament pass a law criminalizing the denial of the Armenian genocide, with Turkish politicians voicing their outrage at the decision against a backdrop where relations between Paris and Ankara are at the lowest level in recent memory.
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• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.02.2012  |  Markets
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Insights into Turkish Domestic and International Politics during August 2011
Key developments:

• Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan visits Mogadishu on a famine aid mission, the first visit by a non-African head of state in nearly 20 years. The trip is a huge boost to Turkey’s international image.
  
• Violence in the south-east of the country continues, leading to Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) cross-border raids into Iraq.
  
• Following criticism from the US Secretary of State, the justice ministry contradicts the number of journalists said to be held by Turkish authorities.
  
• Ankara continues to condemn the Syrian regime despite not calling for the resignation of President Bashar al- Assad. The country wins a seat at the Paris meeting of the new Libyan government following the apparent collapse of the Gaddafi regime.
  
• Azerbaijan and Turkey continue to negotiate a gas transit agreement, while Turkey’s reliance on foreign energy imports has reportedly increased 5 % since the AKP came to power.
  

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 15.09.2011  |  Energy
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The timing of this conference could not have been more appropriate, and backdrop relevant. The Arab Spring that has spread across the Middle East and North Africa highlights Turkey’s growing importance in the region and the role it can play in facilitating transition to democratic governance throughout these regions. Turkey is a secular and democratic state, and yet there has been much discussion about Turkey’s renewed ties with its neighbours. It has been viewed, by some, as evidence of Turkey turning away from its traditional alliances with the West. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Published on EGF: 21.07.2011  |  External Relations
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Turkey's 17th general election was never an election about who would win; it was a foregone conclusion that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) would do that and that Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in his final term as the prime minister, would be given not only the mandate to govern but also the moral authority to forge Turkey’s future in the next four years and, arguably, beyond. READ MORE

• By Mehmet Ogutcu, Formely Turkish Diplomat, Head of OECD Global Forum and currently Multinational Executive and Sir David Logan, Former UK Ambassador to Turkey and Chairman of British Institute in Ankara  |  Published on EGF: 21.07.2011  |  Security
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