By Professor Andrei Kreutz,
EGF Adviser on Trans-Atlantic Security

During the last few weeks, the Syrian-American-Russian triangle directly or indirectly involving all Syria’s neighbors and a number of other nations, has become one of the major focuses of the political commentaries. The Russian initiative to help disarm Syria from its chemical weapons and Putin’s article which was published in the New York Times on September 11, 2013 apparently contributed decisively to prevent a new American military intervention in the Middle East, and brought Russia and its leader world-wide public attention, unknown since the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to the well-known American political analyst George Friedman, for the first time since the early 1990s, the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was able to sit with US State Secretary Kerry as an equal. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

The announcement at the beginning of September 2013, in Moscow, by President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia's decision to join the Russia-led Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) apparently took many by surprise. Firstly, because in July 2013 Armenia concluded a lengthy four years negotiation on essential agreements, meant to upgrade its ties with the European Union (EU), which would be incompatible with joining the ECU. Secondly, because until recently (i.e. the run-up to the Vilnius Eastern Partnership summit to be held this fall) enlargement didn't seem a top priority for the ECU, the focus being more on making the customs union mechanisms effectively work for the existing membership. READ MORE

by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security

A Long Western Debate and its Political Consequences
Although Russia has been part of the European system since the Westphalian Treaty of 1648, and after its victory in the Northern War with Sweden and the Nystad Treaty in 1721 started to be seen as of he major powers on the continent, both its internal nature and its role in international politics have often suffered Western doubts and uncertainties. READ MORE

Interactive discussion hosted by the European Geopolitical Forum

On 18 June 2013, the European Geopolitical Forum (EGF) hosted an interactive discussion on “Conflict Management, Regionalism and Economic Integration in the South Caucasus: Does a light at the End of the Tunnel Exist?” in the hospitable premises of TUSIAD, Brussels. The debate was introduced and moderated by Dr. Marat Terterov, Executive Director, European Geopolitical Forum. It was attended by around 25 policy makers and experts from relevant Brussels-based international organizations (including NATO, the European Union, and the Energy Charter), NGOs, think tanks and embassies. READ MORE

by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security

The issue of soft power and its use in international relations, the concept of attracting and coopting rather than use of direct or indirect coercion as a means of persuasion, was introduced to present use by American scholar Joseph S Nye Jr. in 2002. However, both its concept and its practical use were in fact not new. Both modern and past history provides numerous examples of its previous applications. READ MORE

By Claudia Nocente,
Research Associate Global Security
February 2013

Key points:

• Egypt’s new administration between international praise and domestic unrest
• Morsi assumes pharaonic powers in an attempt to rid Egypt of Mubarak judges
• The felool take another shot in Egyptian politics
• The generals remain silent
• The Egyptian economy sinks. READ MORE

Debates about the geopolitical, geo-economic and strategic significance of the wider-Black Sea (WBS) region have become fashionable amongst Western policy makers and the international scholarly community since the end of the Cold War. While the Black Sea represented a “front line” in the stand-off between rival superpower blocks during an age which now seems to have slipped into the bygone days of our youth, the major geopolitical realignments which have taken place in Eurasia during the last two decades have evidently led to our “re-discovery” of one of the world’s most historically significant geostrategic playing fields. To read more click here.

Djallil Lounnas,
EGF Affiliated Expert with focus on Insurgency and Trans-national radicalism in North Africa and Sahel-Sahara

This article analyses, the complex relationship between Tehran, Beijing and Washington on the Iranian nuclear issue. Indeed, China’ policy towards Iran has often been described an ambiguous, in supporting Washington, on the one hand, while protecting Tehran, on the other hand. In this article, we argue that, in fact, Beijing policy vis-a-vis Tehran depends on the state of its relationships with Washington. Indeed, a closer analysis shows that China is using Iran as a bargaining chip with the United States on, among others, two key security issues, i.e., Taiwan and the oil supply. e guarantee of a secured oil supply from the Middle-East in addition to a comprehensive policy of the US with regard to Chinese security interests in Taiwan as well as the use of smart sanctions against Tehran, which would thus take into account, to a certain extent, Beijing economic interests in Iran, are, indeed, the guarantee of Beijing’ support to the US policy towards Iran. Click here to read more.

Political Outlook for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt

Key points:

• Morocco’s monarchy seems to have survived the wind of change blowing on Arab countries last year and is currently trying to hold on to its power by allowing reforms that partly reduce its absolute authority.
• The adoption of a new constitution and the victory of moderate and nationalist Islamic parties are signs that mark Morocco’s gradual progress towards the demands of protesters who have taken the streets last year.
• However, civil society is not yet a primary actor in Moroccan politics and a widespread sense of communalism is still missing.
• Tensions are still present in Morocco, due to the unresponsiveness of the central government regarding the high levels of unemployment, structural corruption and deficiencies in welfare and health systems.
• Morocco has been praised by the international community for its counter-terrorism efforts, although major security risks stem from the unresolved situation of West Sahara. High unemployment and persisting poverty, however, continue to ensure fertile grounds for terrorist recruiters.
• New economic deals with the EU are expected to have a positive impact on the Moroccan economy, which is of great interest for foreign direct investors.
READ MORE

Mikhail Roshchin

Former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan appears to have made some diplomatic strides in efforts to mediate the violent uprising in Syria. And Annan’s mission also has gained Russian support, which is a crucial key to an international consensus on how best to resolve the Syrian conflict. We are joined on the line with Mikhail Roshchin, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. READ MORE

by Mehmet Öğütçü

In his “Letter from Istanbul”, EGF International Expert on Energy Security, Mehmet Oguctu, argues that for the first time in several generations, there is a credible belief within Turkey that with the right policies, institutions and leadership, the country could well sit on the management board of the new world order by 2023, the centenary year of the founding of the modern Turkish state. Click here to read Mehmet Ogutcu’s letter

by Marat Terterov,
EGF Director

Although 2011 is still far from over, it is already likely to go down in history as the year of the so called ‘Arab Spring’. 2011 will be remembered as the year when Arab populations threw down the gauntlet to their stagnating regimes, revising their traditional authoritarian power model and at long last commencing the transition to democracy. So too it is time to consider revising the European Union’s relationship with Russia, which has stagnated rather badly in recent years. Since the “big bang” enlargement of the EU in 2004, Moscow’s relations with Brussels have been increasingly characterised by tension (if not crisis) in their energy ties and failure to reach agreement in many areas of common strategic interest. In June of this year, the bi-annual EU-Russia Summit, held in Nizhny Novgorod, was dubbed as the ‘Vegetable Summit’ in the international press as Moscow and Brussels exchanged blows over the Russian ban on vegetable imports from the EU following the E.coli health scare in Germany. READ MORE

In the wake of the “Arab Spring,” Algeria causes concerns as its less than democratic past faces the region’s democratic revolutions. Some eight months after the start of the unexpected uprisings in the region, however, Algeria remains relatively stable. READ MORE

By Deniz Altinbas,
Assistant Professor, Ahi Evran University, Turkey,
EGF Affiliated Expert

A History of Turkey’s European Aspirations in Brief

Contrary to conventional opinion, Turkey’s interest in being part of the Western world did not start with its application to the European Economic Community (EEC). In fact, Turkey’s European orientation, diminishing as it is at present, began with the Rescript of Gulhane of 1839 (Tanzimat Fermani) and the Reform Edict of 1856 (Islahat Fermani). Among many other reasons, the major aim of the 19^th century effort was the building of a Western model of state and society in wake of the declining power of the Ottoman Empire. READ MORE

By George Niculescu,
EGF Affiliated Expert

In the aftermath of the failed summit hosted by the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev between his Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts, held in Kazan (Russia) on 24 June 2011, with a view to agreeing on a peaceful settlement of the "frozen conflict" in Nagorno-Karabakh, it seems that the future of South Caucasus might be threatened by the specter of a new war. Although the agreement expected from the Kazan summit was politically backed by a previous US-French-Russian summit in Deauville (France) on 26 May 2011, the two conflicting parties have eventually turned it down, placing under a big question mark the whole notion of pursuing international negotiations on Karabakh. Reportedly, a senior official in the Kremlin, reflecting president's Medvedev's frustration with the outcome of the Kazan summit, had declared: "Unless Armenia and Azerbaijan display a readiness soon to solve the accumulated problems, we will consider this mediating mission over" (Kommersant, 27 June 2011).

ISSUE #18
05/23/2011
On 17 May 2011, the Supreme Council of Ukraine adopted the law “On amending some Ukrainian state procurement acts.” The mass media reported that the new law envisioned several innovations. The most important of them are described below. READ MORE

ISSUE #17
05/16/2011
The celebration of the victory in the 1941-45 Great Patriotic War in Lviv turned into disturbances and clashes. On 9 May 2011, in Lviv representatives of nationalist groups clashed with individuals who were celebrating Victory Day – members of the Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU), the pro-Russian Motherland and Russian Unity parties and veterans. In particular, members of nationalist parties attempted to prevent veterans and civilians from laying flowers at the tomb of soldiers who died in the war. For their part, the supporters of the Motherland and Russian Unity parties unfolded a 30-meter Soviet red flag, which they handed over to local veterans. Nearly 20 people were injured as a result of the clashes. A member of the Freedom nationwide organization was even shot in the leg. READ MORE

Click here to enter the discussion

The Gorhenin Institute held a round table discussion - Prospects for Ukrainian Business in Russia - on 8 February. Experts and businessmen discussed the most promising areas of cooperation for Russian and Ukrainian business.
President of UPEC Industrial Group Anatoliy Girshfeld considers that Ukrainian business has prospects in Russia in the knowledge-based industry sector while operations in raw material sectors may hampered with strong government regulation. ‘The government actively regulates the raw materials and associated industry sectors and it won’t loose it’s hands on it. This is the main source of the budget income’, - O.Girshfeld said. ‘The state of the knowledge-based industry is a common problem to the entire post-Soviet space. That is why Russia has to allow entering its markets the companies developing in the knowledge-based industry, even in strategic sectors,’ – A.Girshfeld said. READ MORE

ISSUE #04
02/15/2011

The President of Ukraine does not agree with the statements that the fight against corruption in Ukraine only targets the people that are in opposition to the current Government.
The Head of State says the corrupt individuals, trying to avoid responsibility, are using various lobbying groups in the country as well as overseas with the purpose of discrediting the actions of the Ukrainian authorities. The President reminded that everybody should be held responsible for corrupt acts regardless of what political party they belong to. READ MORE

On January 24th through January 26th, 2011, Gorshenin Institute has conducted a phone survey "Explosions in Makeyevka". A total of 1000 respondents age 18 or older representing all 25 regional centers, Kiev and Sebastopol, were selected at random following a systematic procedure aimed at filling sex, age and community quotas. The margin of error is no higher then +/-3.2%. Results of the survey conducted among the residents of Makeyevka are presented separately. READ MORE

ISSUE #0
01/31/2011

Prosecutor General's Office (PGO) of the Czech Republic sees impossible the extradition of the former Minister of Economy of Ukraine Bohdan Danylyshyn. On January 21st, 2011, Czech authorities submitted a petition to the Prague City Court asking not to allow the extradition of B.Danylyshyn from the Czech Republic to Ukraine due to his getting a political asylum in the Czech Republic. READ MORE

December 2010

Key positions:
• In recent months Turkey has witnessed harsh prison sentences and threats of litigation by Turkish authorities in response to Kurdish protests and unfavourable press respectively in the past months. This is a worrying sign in that after nearly a decade in power, AKP authorities have become just as reactionary as the military backed governments of previous decades, only this time with an Islamic tinge.

• At the NATO Lisbon Summit on November 19-20, Ankara claimed victory for swaying its allies away from designating Iran as the main threat facing the alliance with regards to a proposed missile defence system which NATO is currently considering. While Turkish government officials indicated prior to the conference that they would demand command and control of the system if based on their territory, in Lisbon, that decision was put off for future discussion.

• Wikileaks’ release of American diplomatic cables have detailed the gossip and personalities of leading AKP politicians, but offered little else that could be described as damaging.

• In regional energy developments, Russia and its energy subsidiary, Gazprom, have been opting for pragmatism over threats in recent months by signing deals throughout the region with Bulgaria, Serbia, and Ukraine in order to strengthen prospects of realising the South Stream gas pipeline. Brussels and Sofia, for their part, have reached an agreement on bank guarantees for Nabucco (the EU’s rival to South Stream). READ MORE

ISSUE #19
11/19/2010

Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission in Ukraine Thanos Arvanitis said that Ukraine had fulfilled all main obligations within the framework of the cooperation program with the IMF. Prime-Minister of Ukraine Nikolay Azarov predicts that by the end of 2010 the Board of Directors of the IMF would decide on granting Ukraine the second tranche of the loan in the amount of 1.6 billion dollars. READ MORE