Interview with Azenglishnews.com by George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

I would hope to see the year 2017 becoming a watershed in the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict resolution. To that end, one essential requirement is for the conflicting parties to identify a political compromise that would underpin the conclusion of a peace agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh. It is deemed widely that the inability to produce a resolution on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict so far was, to a large extent, linked to the dilemma regarding the prevailing legal and political principles that would be applicable. READ MORE

Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor

The outcome of Turkey’s recent parliamentary elections may partly reduce tensions in relations with Armenia, stopping the mounting hostile rhetoric of recent months. A normalization of bilateral relations should not be expected at this stage, but the trend of increasing cooperation in the humanitarian area, and in culture, tourism, and the media in recent years will likely continue. At the same time, some policies may need READ MORE

This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.

10^th Workshop of the PfP Consortium’s “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus” Study Group (RSSC SG)

On 6-8 November, 2014, the PfPC and the Austrian National Defense Academy jointly organized the 10^th Workshop of the RSSC SG at “Schloss Rothschild” in Reichenau (Austria). This workshop offered a platform for constructive dialogue among government and academic experts on the prospective roles of the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in breaking the current deadlocks in the resolution of the protracted conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh. During this workshop, a panel moderated by George Niculescu, the Head of Research of EGF, examined the background and the potential implications from the perspectives of South Caucasus (SC) states of having to make undesirable choices between the EU and the EEU. The panelists’ presentations and the ensuing discussion highlighted that, against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, maintaining freedom of choice on the ways and levels of engagement with both the EU and the EEU is a critical interest for each SC state, and a prerequisite for effective conflict resolution. In this context, Mr Niculescu thought that “the EU might work towards developing options for harmonizing the European and Eurasian integration normative systems. One of the options to be explored might involve sustaining post-conflict regional economic cooperation as a way to circumvent the dilemma of the states caught in-between competing European and Eurasian integration processes.” READ MORE. Please see the relevant post on Facebook here. 

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Elkhan Nuriyev,
EGF Affiliated Expert

The mounting tension over Ukraine has introduced numerous dangers to the security situation in the South Caucasus. These negative ramifications are further exacerbated by the fact that Russia holds the key to resolving conflicts in the post-Soviet realm, especially in the absence of greater Western assertiveness. But Moscow and Brussels are caught up in geopolitical competition over the region. READ MORE

George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Just like other parts of Eurasia, the South Caucasus is facing the challenge of a renewed East-West geopolitical competition underpinned by three evolving challenges: 1) a growing ideological gap between Russia and the West; 2) the chronic persistence of protracted conflicts; 3) the dilemma of post-Soviet states: European vs. Eurasian integration. More specifically, the South Caucasus geopolitical landscape is shaped by: READ MORE

Vasilije Boskovic,
EGF Guest Contributor

Montenegro is the only former Yugoslav republic where there was no change of government since 1989. The same political party, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), has ruled for 25 years consecutively. The party is led by Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, who was also president of the Republic of Montenegro from 1998 to 2002. What are the reasons the same political elite can hold onto power for more than two decades? READ MORE
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A highly successful roundtable discussion on Exploring the Role of Economic Initiatives as Peace Building Tools in the Nagorno-Karabakh Context took place on the 27th of March, 2014, at the European Parliament.  The event was organized by the European Geopolitical Forum and international NGO partners, and was attended by more than 40 experts from the South Caucasus region and Brussels-based think tanks and international organizations who engaged in discussion in a constructive, informal ‘atmosphere of exchange’. The roundtable focused constructive energies on discussing a common future in an economically integrated South Caucasus, as a way to build mutual trust aimed at helping to overcome the current stalemate within the political and security negotiations. Please click here for the summary of conclusions of the event. READ MORE. 

Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher and Andrew Judge, EGF Guest Contributor

The current tensions in Ukraine have generated speculation about the security of Russian gas supplies to the EU via Ukraine. This short article analyses the likelihood of a suspension of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine and the impact of such a suspension on EU gas imports. We find that a suspension of gas transit is far from inevitable, but cannot be ruled out. The impact of such a suspension would disproportionately affect Central and South-East Europe, with this region divided between those that have access to gas storage and/or alternative supplies, and those that do not. In this regard, Bulgaria remains the only EU member state in this region that has neither sufficient gas storage nor access to alternative supplies. READ MORE