January 2011

Key Points:
• The Nabucco pipeline received several pieces of good news in January, but there is little sign of any movement towards commencement of construction works. Further, Italy’s ENI has rejected any possible suggestions that Nabucco could merge with Russia’s South Stream.

• Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Erdogan, has responded to criticisms that new laws advocating the restrictions of alcohol reflect an infringement on personal freedoms of Turkish citizens.

• The widely discussed “conspiracy” of the Sledgehammer coup plot is once again in the lime light, as prosecutors allege plans by the plotters to bomb two Istanbul mosques.

• Following the release of 5 members of the banned (Turkish) Hizbullah organisation in January, a fiery security- political debate has erupted as to whether there is a link between the AKP government and the outlawed group.

• While Istanbul hosts talks between the P5 +1 and Iran over the latter’s nuclear ambitions, Turkey sits out the meeting. A settlement on Cyprus appears impossible after Turkey and the EU sit out January talks in Geneva, with some critics saying this is the end for Turkey’s own EU accession negotiations.

• A day after Saudi Arabia halted its efforts in support of the formation of a new government in Lebanon, the joint Turkish/Qatari mission followed suit, claiming that the disputing Lebanese factions indicated reservations with external proposals to help broker a deal. READ MORE

The Gorshenin Institute has asked experts about the key positive and negative aspects of the resolution on Ukraine adopted by the European Parliament. READ MORE

December 2010

Key positions:
• In recent months Turkey has witnessed harsh prison sentences and threats of litigation by Turkish authorities in response to Kurdish protests and unfavourable press respectively in the past months. This is a worrying sign in that after nearly a decade in power, AKP authorities have become just as reactionary as the military backed governments of previous decades, only this time with an Islamic tinge.

• At the NATO Lisbon Summit on November 19-20, Ankara claimed victory for swaying its allies away from designating Iran as the main threat facing the alliance with regards to a proposed missile defence system which NATO is currently considering. While Turkish government officials indicated prior to the conference that they would demand command and control of the system if based on their territory, in Lisbon, that decision was put off for future discussion.

• Wikileaks’ release of American diplomatic cables have detailed the gossip and personalities of leading AKP politicians, but offered little else that could be described as damaging.

• In regional energy developments, Russia and its energy subsidiary, Gazprom, have been opting for pragmatism over threats in recent months by signing deals throughout the region with Bulgaria, Serbia, and Ukraine in order to strengthen prospects of realising the South Stream gas pipeline. Brussels and Sofia, for their part, have reached an agreement on bank guarantees for Nabucco (the EU’s rival to South Stream). READ MORE

ISSUE #21
12/03/2010

On November 26th, 2010 in Moscow after the Ukrainian-Russian Intergovernmental Commission President of Ukraine announced that he did not rule out Ukraine entering the Customs Union (CU) with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. He added that, in order to achieve that goal certain amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine should be made, which according to him could be done either in the Parliament or by a National referendum. Earlier, in April, Viktor Yanukovych has expressed an opposite opinion regarding this matter. 'Ukraine has made a choice in favor of joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). Ukraine is already integrated in the WTO and today Ukraine entering the Customs Union would be impossible', -he said. th As a reminder, on November 25 European Parliament adopted a resolution on Ukraine. In this document European legislators are calling on Ukraine to make all effort to finish negotiation on an agreement as to the Association Treaty between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine in the first half of 2011. READ MORE

ISSUE #19
11/19/2010

Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission in Ukraine Thanos Arvanitis said that Ukraine had fulfilled all main obligations within the framework of the cooperation program with the IMF. Prime-Minister of Ukraine Nikolay Azarov predicts that by the end of 2010 the Board of Directors of the IMF would decide on granting Ukraine the second tranche of the loan in the amount of 1.6 billion dollars. READ MORE

Dr. Marat Terterov, EGF Principal Director, gave a lecture at Gubkin Oil and Gas University, Moscow, on November 19, 2010 on the topic “Energy and Geopolitics in Eurasia: why has energy become a factor of tension rather than a factor of cooperation ?” Please click here to read the key messages of the lecture.

Dr. Marat Terterov spoke at the International Conference, Gas Forum 2010 on 13th -14th September, 2010 in Warsaw, Poland, addressing the topic of “Old players, new identities and bargaining Instruments: A cost-benefit discussion of Southern Corridor oil and gas pipeline.” Please click here to read the key messages of the lecture and here to visit the conference program.

Mikhail Roshchin
Expert on Radical Islam in the Russian North Caucasus

The Attack on the Chechen parliament in Grozny: Jihad becomes a significant element of everyday life in the Russian North Caucasus

On the morning of 19 October 2010, Chechen Jihadists attacked the parliament building in Grozny, the capital of the Chechen Republic, in the North Caucasus region of the Russian Federation. Six people were killed, including two police officers, one parliament employee and three Jihadists. The attack took place as Russian Interior Minister, Rashid Nurgaliev, was visiting Chechnya. Also at the time of the attack, the chairman of the Chechen parliament, Dukwaha Abdurahmanov, was in discussions with a visiting delegation from the Legislative Assembly of Sverdlovsk Region (in Central Russia). The fact that the attack was timed with the presence of the Russian Interior Minister in Grozny, strongly suggests that the rebels are supported by persons from within the Chechen government structures. It is thus highly likely that the attack was planned carefully and planned from the inside. According to Igor Danilov, a member of the Sverdlovsk delegation, the gun battle between jihadists and the Chechen security forces lasted as long as one hour.

Furthermore, a number of experts on the region have suggested that the attack was orchestrated under the leadership of Hussein Gakaev, a Chechen field commander who opposes the position of Chechen Jihadist leader, Dokka Umarov, as Emir of the self-proclaimed Caucasus Emirate. Gakaev, in his position of refusing to recognize Umarov’s authority, is himself supported by two other leading field commanders of the Chechen Jihad (one Chechen, Aslambek Vadalov, the other Arab). It is worth recalling that on 29 August of this year, Hussein Gakaev and his followers organized an attack on the childhood home of the current president of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov: the village of Tsentoroi. Taking into account these two attacks, which were seemingly perpetrated by Gakaev and his followers, we can deduce that genuine political instability continues to prevail in Chechnya at present, as well as in the wider-North Caucasus region of Russia as a whole. These unsavory incidents, and particularly yesterday’s brazen attack on the Chechen parliament, provide further evidence that Jihad has become a significant element of everyday life in this unruly region of the Russian Federation.

Click here to read Mikhail Roshchin’s recent article on The Caucasus Emirate and the Movement of the Military Jamaats