EGF Turkey File
November 2010
Key positions:
• David Cameron’s forceful remarks over the summer on Turkey’s stagnant accession talks have hit a nerve in some circles in Brussels. Criticism of fellow German and French members of the EU by the prime minister on bias and playing to xenophobic political moods has addressed the elephant in the room over Turkey’s much debated membership application. Brussels is predicted to endorse the recent referendum results from Turkey as a positive step in its long standing bid to join the EU.
• A Turkish court struck down the headscarf ban in public universities recently, but no major social disturbances have been reported. The lack of social unrest over such a divisive issue seems to further demonstrate that Turkey is enshrining the values of a law based democratic society where sensitive political issues are settled in the courts and at the ballot box rather than in the streets. Meanwhile the Ergenekon trial (Turkey’s new national coup plot) has faded from national attention as the Istanbul prosecutor’s office has declined to pursue the case citing lack of verifiable evidence.
• The Turkish National Petroleum Corporation has recently won two major contracts in developing the two largest Iraqi gas fields, further increasing Turkey’s interests in its neighbour. This has not alleviated some concern in the business sector that warns a ballooning trade deficit over the past year has dire consequences for the long-term future of business growth.
READ MORE
- Tuesday, 30 November 2010, 05:57
EGF Turkey File
October 2010
EGF Editorial
Key Positions
- The 12 September referendum was seen as a vote of confidence for the ruling AKP, with several constitutional changes ratified by majority. However, a large opposition-voting bloc has emerged and appears to highlight the presence of a vibrant democratic atmosphere in the Republic.
- Kurdish-Turkish reconciliation has faltered in recent weeks, with large portions of the country’s Kurdish areas boycotting the 12 September vote.
- Rumours of a Gulenist-AKP split did not deter cooperation between these two leading Turkish political forces in the run up to the vote. However, with criticism of the AKP increasingly evident within Gulenist circles, there are signs that all is not well in the Islamist camp in Turkey.
- Turkey and Russia’s Gazprom are attempting to negotiate the sharing of burdens and profits from the Samsun-Ceyan oil pipeline with Italy’s ENI. The American ambassador to Turkey has endorsed the Southern Energy Corridor project, but with the caveat that no Iranian gas runs through the Nabucco gas pipeline. READ MORE
- Monday, 8 November 2010, 20:49
EGF Turkey File September 2010
John Van Pool
EGF Turkey Geopolitics Analyst
Key positions:
- British Prime Minster David Cameron’s recent speech to the Turkish Parliament, which gave strong support for Ankara’s EU membership bid, is likely to have caused more reaction from European national leaders had it been delivered in Brussels
- Last month’s agreement between Chevron and Turkish Petroleum to explore two deep-water wells in the Black Sea is a reflection of the Turkish government’s efforts to make the country self sufficient in oil and gas production by 2023
- Italian energy company ENI has attempted to reach a compromise for its role in the competing Nabucco and South Stream pipelines by reaching an agreement with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan in which compressed natural gas reserves will be transported by ship across the Caspian Sea, which will provide supplies to both pipelines without alienating either project’s backers.
- Turkey’s National Security Policy Document (also known as the ‘Secret Constitution’), which is due to be reviewed shortly, will identify energy security as the country’s most pressing strategic issue, and will remove Russia, amongst other neighbours, from the countries it would consider as potential enemies. READ MORE
- Monday, 8 November 2010, 20:42
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: The Tashkent Summit Generates More Questions than Answers
EGF Editorial
On June 11-12 2010 the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held their annual Summit in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, under the auspices of the (rotational) Uzbek presidency. The previous SCO Summit was held in 2009 in Yekaterinburg, Russia, where the agenda of the member states was dominated by the search for the right exit strategies out of the global economic-financial crisis, particularly those that would serve to minimise its nefarious consequences upon SCO members. In Tashkent, the agenda of SCO member country leaders was dominated by the following issues:
• Enhancement of regional stability and security
• Coordination of the intergovernmental struggle with international terrorism, extremism and separatism
• Contemporary problems relating to the above, including ongoing crisis in Afghanistan (a regional thorn for all of the SCO members) and the fallout of the political-security crisis in Kyrgyzstan
• Coordination of national and intergovernmental efforts to counter organised crime and narco-trafficking. READ MORE
- Thursday, 21 October 2010, 02:01
EGF Turkey File
August 2010
John Van Pool
EGF Turkey Geopolitics Analyst
Key Positions:
• Terrorism-related acts of sabotage, linked to the outlawed Kurdish-separatist group, the PKK, took place on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline on 10 August, disrupting production
• The Moscow-backed South Stream gas pipeline has been losing support amongst influential stakeholders in the region (the Italian Energy company, ENI, has raised concerns that the project will not be commercially viable)
• Turkey appears to be slowly correcting its energy policy shortcomings of the past with Russia, and Ankara now seeks a more balanced energy partnership with Moscow
• Conciliatory gestures towards Turkey’s Kurds by the present Ankara government appear to have done little to ease tensions in the country’s south east, which is heavily populated by Kurdish minorities. READ MORE
- Wednesday, 20 October 2010, 20:17
Geopolitical Challenges 2010
At the end of December 1999, as the world prepared to usher in a new Millennium, in Europe and other parts of the planet, there was widespread concern that the so called “Millennium Bug” would strike, causing unforeseen disruption and havoc. Ten years on, in December of last year, for many in Europe, the Millennium Bug was just a shade in the memory as a far more ominous concern was pressing home – the prospect of another gas crisis. Although the fact that the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute of January 2009 – and its knock-on effect of leaving much of Europe without natural gas in the peak of winter – did not repeat itself during the record cold European temperatures of January this year, the very fact that European attention has become so focused on this theme demonstrates how geopolitical developments in the European hinterlands have come to impact the day-to-day livelihood of all Europeans.
Leading experts have shared their views on how such geopolitical challenges are likely to pan out during 2010 and beyond in an online session. Click here to go into the discussions or here to view forum summary
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In Progress
