In a recent interview for "The Voice of Russia", EGF Expert on Radical Islamic Movements, Mikhail Roshchin, explained the political dynamics emerging between Islamist and secular political parties in Egypt following recent parliamentary elections. His key message for all stakeholders engaged in the formation of new governance institutions in Egypt was that the Muslim Brotherhood, which now forms the largest political bloc in Egypt's new parliament, is more likely to broker political deals with secular parties rather than develop any sense of "ideological alliances" with other, more radical, Islamist factions. This will most likely remove the concerns over "new shades of green" emerging in the ensuing Egyptian political landscape and lead to further fragmentation of the political environment in advance of the country's looming presidential elections, which are currently scheduled for June 2012. Click HERE for the entire interview.
 

by Marat Terterov,
EGF Director

1. What does Nord Stream mean for the energy security of the European Union?

There seems to be a strong debate about the impact of Nord Stream on EU energy security. On the one hand, we have the “side of the house” which feels that the project will make European gas consumers even more dependent on Russian gas supplies than they already are and that it will further strengthen Russian’s “grip” on the European gas imports market. READ MORE

Dr Beniamin Poghosyan
Deputy Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies, MOD, Armenia
Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The Karabakh conflict negotiation process is in an obvious stalemate after the apparent failure of the Kazan summit which took place last June. Three-years of mediation efforts by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev accompanied by efforts of the Minsk Group’s two other Co-chair-state-leaders have delivered no results. The much anticipated breakthrough which should have taken place at the Kazan trilateral summit was transformed into a half page statement with no concrete steps and decisions. President Medvedev’s further efforts to move the process through bilateral meetings with Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents did not bring any meaningful results. Meanwhile, the situation in the front line is deteriorating mainly due to Azerbaijani snipers deadly attacks and retaliatory actions of Karabakh Armed Forces. READ MORE

By George Niculescu,
EGF Affiliated Expert

In the aftermath of the failed summit hosted by the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev between his Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts, held in Kazan (Russia) on 24 June 2011, with a view to agreeing on a peaceful settlement of the "frozen conflict" in Nagorno-Karabakh, it seems that the future of South Caucasus might be threatened by the specter of a new war. READ MORE

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September 2010
John Van Pool
EGF Turkey Geopolitics Analyst

Key positions:

• British Prime Minster David Cameron’s recent speech to the Turkish Parliament, which gave strong support for Ankara’s EU membership bid, is likely to have caused more reaction from European national leaders had it been delivered in Brussels 
• Last month’s agreement between Chevron and Turkish Petroleum to explore two deep-water wells in the Black Sea is a reflection of the Turkish government’s efforts to make the country self sufficient in oil and gas production by 2023 
• Italian energy company ENI has attempted to reach a compromise for its role in the competing Nabucco and South Stream pipelines by reaching an agreement with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan in which compressed natural gas reserves will be transported by ship across the Caspian Sea, which will provide supplies to both pipelines without alienating either project’s backers. 
• Turkey’s National Security Policy Document (also known as the ‘Secret Constitution’), which is due to be reviewed shortly, will identify energy security as the country’s most pressing strategic issue, and will remove Russia, amongst other neighbours, from the countries it would consider as potential enemies. READ MORE

On June 11-12 2010 the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held their annual Summit in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, under the auspices of the (rotational) Uzbek presidency. The previous SCO Summit was held in 2009 in Yekaterinburg, Russia, where the agenda of the member states was dominated by the search for the right exit strategies out of the global economic-financial crisis, particularly those that would serve to minimise its nefarious consequences upon SCO members. In Tashkent, the agenda of SCO member country leaders was dominated by the following issues:

• Enhancement of regional stability and security
• Coordination of the intergovernmental struggle with international terrorism, extremism and separatism
• Contemporary problems relating to the above, including ongoing crisis in Afghanistan (a regional thorn for all of the SCO members) and the fallout of the political-security crisis in Kyrgyzstan
• Coordination of national and intergovernmental efforts to counter organised crime and narco-trafficking. READ MORE