In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg Adria, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, assessed the prospects of energy transition in Europe within a complex geopolitical context. In particular, he addressed the main challenges ahead such as: decarbonization of transports, the need for an urgent diversification of energy (in particular gas) supply sources and adjusting the energy markets to geopolitical imperatives (mainly due to EU sanctions against Russia). Regarding the latter, Dr. Terterov alluded to an older issue: “can states control markets?”. While market actors (including suppliers and consumers) do not aim to support the Russian war in Ukraine, they don’t want to become collateral damage either. Gas trading relations are usually very long term. It’s therefore still to be seen how the European gas markets actors would react to Brussels pressures to phase out Russian gas supply over the short term. Meanwhile, Russia has no interest in undermining the European energy transition, but it may be interested to maintain a share of the European gas market, at least by the time it was able to fully redirect its exports towards the East (China, Pakistan). WATCH INTERVIEW

By Vusal GULIYEV, Leading Advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev delivered a speech at the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus” (SCO+) meeting in Tianjin, China (September 2025) underlining Azerbaijan’s role in regional connectivity and energy cooperation. Energy is a cornerstone of Azerbaijan’s economy and a major area of cooperation with both China and other SCO countries. As a hydrocarbon-rich nation on the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan brings significant oil and gas assets to any partnership. It has leveraged its dialogue partner status in the SCO to advance energy collaboration aiming to diversify its export markets, attract investment in energy infrastructure, and even develop new energy technologies. Building on this foundation, Azerbaijan has gradually shifted its energy focus from its traditional European partners toward emerging Asian markets. Traditionally, Azerbaijan’s oil and gas have flowed Westward to Europe (through pipelines like BTC and TANAP), but now Asian markets are increasingly in focus. China has begun importing Azerbaijani crude oil in recent years. Although volumes are modest relative to Azerbaijan’s exports to Europe, they signal a growing Far Eastern demand. READ MORE

By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

A stronger EU-India partnership on technology transfer, climate finance, green transition, and sustainability can help bridge the North-South divide.
Among the host of commitments that found their way into the Leaders’ Statement during the visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to India in February 2025 was the need for greater cooperation across a number of areas pertaining to climate change. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and von der Leyen also reaffirmed their commitment to promote “a free, open, peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” in the wake of the European Union joining the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) in 2023. Within the IPOI, an Indian initiative, climate change has been a significant area of focus. While the EU and India are working to address the challenges in their bilateral relations, including finalizing a much-delayed free trade agreement, climate cooperation in the Indo-Pacific can become a defining strategic initiative between the two. The prevailing heat waves in Europe and Indian cities, and its implications for livelihoods, economies, and conflict, make such cooperation even more necessary. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Ukraine is positioning itself as a key transit hub for Azerbaijani gas to Europe, a move that could significantly alter the region’s energy landscape. If successful, this would carve out a new role for Kyiv after Russian supplies stopped flowing to the rest of Europe via Ukraine on January 1, pushing up European wholesale energy prices. The expiration of the Russian gas deal at the beginning of 2025 and Kyiv's decision not to prolong the agreement triggered heated debates within the European Union as countries like Hungary and Slovakia harshly criticised Ukraine, accusing it of igniting the energy crisis with no drastic impact on Russia. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Two agreements signed at the end of May advanced Azerbaijan’s efforts to establish itself as a key energy provider in Southeast Europe, going beyond its role as a producer of hydrocarbons to enter the electricity markets in the region as well. On May 29, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary signed a memorandum to create a joint venture as part of the implementation of the Black Sea Energy Caspian-Black Sea-Europe Green Energy Corridor project. The first agreement regarding the submarine cable was signed in 2022 and it is supposed to be fully operational in 2029. The Black Sea submarine cable will be 1,195 km long and is set to be an important pillar of the transition to green energy, with the plan to integrate it into the EU's internal electricity market. As an attempt to diversify energy supplies in response to Russia's war in Ukraine in February 2022, the Black Sea cable is of particular importance. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

In the shifting landscape of global energy dynamics and geopolitical uncertainties, the relationship between Azerbaijan and the European Union (EU) has emerged as a beacon of mutually beneficial and strategic partnership. The relationship between the two sides is multilayered and is of wider geostrategic importance. While the EU, among others, is a major partner for Azerbaijan constituting about 65 percent of its total foreign trade, Azerbaijan is a critical country for the EU in the Europe-Asia connectivity, and as an energy supplier. The cooperation in the field of energy is particularly of great importance for both sides and has gained momentum against the backdrop of regional geopolitical upheavals and efforts to pursue green transition.
The two sides have forged a strategic partnership in the field of energy that is pivotal for both sides economic prosperity and energy security. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, called Azerbaijan a “reliable partner” of the EU, when she signed the deal on the strategic partnership with President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, on July 18, 2022. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On May 29, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev officially inaugurated the first phase of the long-awaited flagship project Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), through which Caspian natural gas from the Shah-Deniz II field will be transported to Europe. The new project consists of several pipeline networks that pass through Georgia and Turkey (via the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline, TANAP) and further through Greece, Albania and Italy (via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, TAP). As Shah Deniz Stage 2 is implemented, gas production will increase from 9 to 25 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year. READ MORE

By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert

This opinion piece applies post-conflict scenario planning to the future of the regional energy security cooperation in the Black Sea-Caspian basin and describes collaborative steps that could be taken by all relevant players to think more deeply about promoting the integration of energy markets in this part of the world.
Notwithstanding the most acute unpredictability of the new societies in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia in the 1990s, the young states simultaneously faced the need for intense capital investments in their energy sectors that could drive economic growth. Since then, both the Black Sea and the Caspian basin alike have become crossroads for increased commerce and economic development as the old Silk Road is revived. READ MORE

Ahmed Mousa Jiyad,
EGF Affiliated Expert

Following closely after the ground-breaking Turkey-Russia gas export/pipeline MoU announced last week, another agreement was publicized between the Iraqi government and the KRG that could send additional KRG gas to Turkey. Some argue that, if the KRG ramps up and exports significant volumes, it could pose problems for Putin’s new plan. EGF Affiliated Expert Ahmed Mousa Jiyad explains why this is unlikely. READ MORE

Dr Radu Dudau,
director of the Energy Policy Group Bucharest (EGF Information Partner)

Romania’s most important foreign energy policy project, the Nabucco gas pipeline, collapsed in June 2013 as the rivaling TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) won the bidding for transporting Azerbaijani gas to the EU. Hence, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) will link the Caspian Basin to Southern Italy via Turkey, Greece, Albania, and the Adriatic Sea. Shah Deniz consortium’s choice was predominantly commercial, yet it came to the detriment of Eastern Europe’s strategic necessities. But, although left with no large scale international project, Romania keeps significant options to improve its energy security on the medium term. This paper reviews Romania’s prospective new sources –internal and external – of primary energy. READ MORE

Dr Andrei V. Belyi,
EGF Guest Contributor

A crisis of international governance spreads into the political sphere and puts under peril the peace between the Russia and Ukraine, in addition to heightening tension between Russia and the West. The political rhetoric from Brussels, Moscow and Washington increasingly resembles that of the Cold War. Many ask if there are serious implications in security of energy supply, as well as in investment and trade, either among causes or consequences of current events. The current situation demonstrates a deep vulnerability of states in the face of markets, and will be analysed along three groups of energy implications: transit-supply flows, investments and effects of sanctions. READ MORE

Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher and Andrew Judge, EGF Guest Contributor

The current tensions in Ukraine have generated speculation about the security of Russian gas supplies to the EU via Ukraine. This short article analyses the likelihood of a suspension of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine and the impact of such a suspension on EU gas imports. We find that a suspension of gas transit is far from inevitable, but cannot be ruled out. The impact of such a suspension would disproportionately affect Central and South-East Europe, with this region divided between those that have access to gas storage and/or alternative supplies, and those that do not. In this regard, Bulgaria remains the only EU member state in this region that has neither sufficient gas storage nor access to alternative supplies. READ MORE

Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher and
Andrew Judge, EGF Guest Contributor

Amidst the current tensions about Russian military deployment in Crimea, there has been considerable speculation in the European and American media about the security of Russian gas supplies to the EU. Such speculation is generated by a combination of concerns over the level of dependency on Russian gas imports faced by several EU member states and fears that the Russian government considers gas exports to be an ‘energy weapon’ that can be deployed against its former Soviet neighbours. This short article will address the likelihood of a suspension of Russian gas supplies to Ukraine and the impact of such a suspension on EU gas imports. READ MORE

By Valentin Stoyanov
EGF Affiliated Expert
Gazprom’s South Stream gas pipeline project has been highly visible in the European media in recent months and appears to be going from strength to strength. The project seems to have high level political support and there is much speculation that actual construction is imminent, particularly in Serbia and Bulgaria. There are also rumors that the Russian company, Stroytransgaz, has signed “construction contracts” and is ready to commence operations. Further, in December 2012 there was even a symbolic first welding of pipes in the Russian coastal town of Anapa. For better or for worse, and taking into account the wider energy security debate between the EU and Russia, all of these developments appear to reflect “evidence” that the South Stream project is just about upon us. READ MORE

by Professor Natasha Udensiva
The U.S. shale gas revolution is spreading: more and more countries are talking about developing their own shale gas resources. How is this relevant for Gazprom? It is relevant because, with more countries developing their natural gas resources, Gazprom’s once-powerful monopoly may soon lose its hold on the European market. So far, the company’s strategy has relied on the exclusiveness of its vast resources. But shale development is undermining this very quickly. Soon, access to technology will trump resource access. Then, Gazprom’s only chance of reasserting its presence will be to lower its prices. READ MORE

By Igor Alexeev
Russian journalist and blogger for Strategic Culture Foundation and Route Magazine. He writes on the oil and gas sector, Eurasian energy security and shipping industries in the Arctic.

European countries, including the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom expressed their interest in the expansion of Nord Stream. The third and fourth strings of the pipeline enjoy the highest level of political support in Europe. As a result Nord Stream will be the cornerstone of European energy security in the decades to come.
Nord Stream Fact Sheet

• Nord Stream is a twin pipeline system through the Baltic Sea transporting natural gas from Russia to Europe;
• It runs across the Baltic Sea waters from the Portovaya Bay (near Vyborg) to the German coast (near Greifswald) stretching over 1224 kilometers;
• The third and fourth lines are planned for annual capacities of 27.5 billion cubic meters each;
• The stakes in Nord Stream AG are distributed as follows: Gazprom holds 51%, Wintershall Holding and E.ON Ruhrgas – 15.5% each, Gasunie and GDF Suez – 9% each;
• Nord Stream will export gas from the Yuzhno-Russkoye oil and gas field, the Yamal Peninsula, Ob and Taz Bays and in perspective Shtokman field;
• The cost of construction of the first two sections was $7.4 billion.

Mehmet Öğütçü,
EGF Expert on global energy security matters

The discovery of large gas reserves off the coasts of Israel and Cyprus posed a number of dilemmas for Turkey. Its response reflected both resource rivalry and underlying political conflicts. Turkey and its neighbors need to avoid harsh rhetoric and brinkmanship. Instead, pending solutions of bilateral differences, they should consider interim agreements to reduce risk and allow exploration and production to go ahead in a more predictable environment. To read more click here.

by Marat Terterov,
EGF Director

1. What does Nord Stream mean for the energy security of the European Union?

There seems to be a strong debate about the impact of Nord Stream on EU energy security. On the one hand, we have the “side of the house” which feels that the project will make European gas consumers even more dependent on Russian gas supplies than they already are and that it will further strengthen Russian’s “grip” on the European gas imports market. READ MORE

Dr. Marat Terterov, EGF Principal Director, gave a lecture at Gubkin Oil and Gas University, Moscow, on November 19, 2010 on the topic “Energy and Geopolitics in Eurasia: why has energy become a factor of tension rather than a factor of cooperation ?” Please click here to read the key messages of the lecture.

The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.

Leading Russian and international energy professionals have shared their views on these energy policy challenges in an online session. Click here to go into the discussions or here to view forum summary