Sergey Korol,
European Geopolitical Forum

American politics, in general, and its energy version in particular, resemble a chess game but according to the rules of American football. The US plans to become a leading player in the world energy market do not coincide with the interests of other major players, including OPEC countries and Russia. READ MORE

Ahmed Mousa Jiyad,
EGF Affiliated Expert

Following closely after the ground-breaking Turkey-Russia gas export/pipeline MoU announced last week, another agreement was publicized between the Iraqi government and the KRG that could send additional KRG gas to Turkey. Some argue that, if the KRG ramps up and exports significant volumes, it could pose problems for Putin’s new plan. EGF Affiliated Expert Ahmed Mousa Jiyad explains why this is unlikely. READ MORE

Dr Radu Dudau,
director of the Energy Policy Group Bucharest (EGF Information Partner)

Romania’s most important foreign energy policy project, the Nabucco gas pipeline, collapsed in June 2013 as the rivaling TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) won the bidding for transporting Azerbaijani gas to the EU. Hence, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) will link the Caspian Basin to Southern Italy via Turkey, Greece, Albania, and the Adriatic Sea. Shah Deniz consortium’s choice was predominantly commercial, yet it came to the detriment of Eastern Europe’s strategic necessities. But, although left with no large scale international project, Romania keeps significant options to improve its energy security on the medium term. This paper reviews Romania’s prospective new sources –internal and external – of primary energy. READ MORE

Dr Andrei V. Belyi,
EGF Guest Contributor

A crisis of international governance spreads into the political sphere and puts under peril the peace between the Russia and Ukraine, in addition to heightening tension between Russia and the West. The political rhetoric from Brussels, Moscow and Washington increasingly resembles that of the Cold War. Many ask if there are serious implications in security of energy supply, as well as in investment and trade, either among causes or consequences of current events. The current situation demonstrates a deep vulnerability of states in the face of markets, and will be analysed along three groups of energy implications: transit-supply flows, investments and effects of sanctions. READ MORE

Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher and Andrew Judge, EGF Guest Contributor

The current tensions in Ukraine have generated speculation about the security of Russian gas supplies to the EU via Ukraine. This short article analyses the likelihood of a suspension of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine and the impact of such a suspension on EU gas imports. We find that a suspension of gas transit is far from inevitable, but cannot be ruled out. The impact of such a suspension would disproportionately affect Central and South-East Europe, with this region divided between those that have access to gas storage and/or alternative supplies, and those that do not. In this regard, Bulgaria remains the only EU member state in this region that has neither sufficient gas storage nor access to alternative supplies. READ MORE

Jack Sharples, EGF Associate Researcher and
Andrew Judge, EGF Guest Contributor

Amidst the current tensions about Russian military deployment in Crimea, there has been considerable speculation in the European and American media about the security of Russian gas supplies to the EU. Such speculation is generated by a combination of concerns over the level of dependency on Russian gas imports faced by several EU member states and fears that the Russian government considers gas exports to be an ‘energy weapon’ that can be deployed against its former Soviet neighbours. This short article will address the likelihood of a suspension of Russian gas supplies to Ukraine and the impact of such a suspension on EU gas imports. READ MORE

Fatemeh Shayan, University of Eshfahan, Iran
University of Tampere, Finland
Guest contributor to EGF

Do such organisations exist beyond the ‘self fulfilling prophecy’ level?
Much research has examined energy relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia,[1] but not the larger picture of energy relations between the EU and the Gas-Troika, made up of members Russia, Iran and Qatar. Although the Gas-Troika is in an early stage of development, increasing demand for gas, especially from the EU, has noticed members to attempt to present it as a future gas superpower. READ MORE

By Valentin Stoyanov
EGF Affiliated Expert
Gazprom’s South Stream gas pipeline project has been highly visible in the European media in recent months and appears to be going from strength to strength. The project seems to have high level political support and there is much speculation that actual construction is imminent, particularly in Serbia and Bulgaria. There are also rumors that the Russian company, Stroytransgaz, has signed “construction contracts” and is ready to commence operations. Further, in December 2012 there was even a symbolic first welding of pipes in the Russian coastal town of Anapa. For better or for worse, and taking into account the wider energy security debate between the EU and Russia, all of these developments appear to reflect “evidence” that the South Stream project is just about upon us. READ MORE

By Igor Alexeev
Russian journalist and blogger for Strategic Culture Foundation and Route Magazine. He writes on the oil and gas sector, Eurasian energy security and shipping industries in the Arctic.

European countries, including the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom expressed their interest in the expansion of Nord Stream. The third and fourth strings of the pipeline enjoy the highest level of political support in Europe. As a result Nord Stream will be the cornerstone of European energy security in the decades to come.
Nord Stream Fact Sheet

• Nord Stream is a twin pipeline system through the Baltic Sea transporting natural gas from Russia to Europe;
• It runs across the Baltic Sea waters from the Portovaya Bay (near Vyborg) to the German coast (near Greifswald) stretching over 1224 kilometers;
• The third and fourth lines are planned for annual capacities of 27.5 billion cubic meters each;
• The stakes in Nord Stream AG are distributed as follows: Gazprom holds 51%, Wintershall Holding and E.ON Ruhrgas – 15.5% each, Gasunie and GDF Suez – 9% each;
• Nord Stream will export gas from the Yuzhno-Russkoye oil and gas field, the Yamal Peninsula, Ob and Taz Bays and in perspective Shtokman field;
• The cost of construction of the first two sections was $7.4 billion.

By Igor Alexeev
Russian journalist and blogger for Strategic Culture Foundation and Route Magazine. He writes on the oil and gas sector, Eurasian energy security and shipping industries in the Arctic.

South Stream is an ambitious endeavor of Russia’s energy giant Gazprom to get direct access to the EU energy market. It is portrayed and criticized by some politicians in Europe as a “dangerous” gateway to a broader economic relationship with Moscow. Remarkably enough, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary have one-by-one opted for the project.
The South Stream Fact Sheet

• Gas pipeline will be 1455 km long in Southern and Central Europe;
• 8500 people will be employed in its construction, with 770 at the operational level;
• Eight compression stations are to be set up in the main transit countries;
• The South Stream planned transport capacity may reach 63 billion cubic meters;
• The overall cost of the project is approximately $39 billion.

Mehmet Öğütçü,
EGF Expert on global energy security matters

The discovery of large gas reserves off the coasts of Israel and Cyprus posed a number of dilemmas for Turkey. Its response reflected both resource rivalry and underlying political conflicts. Turkey and its neighbors need to avoid harsh rhetoric and brinkmanship. Instead, pending solutions of bilateral differences, they should consider interim agreements to reduce risk and allow exploration and production to go ahead in a more predictable environment. To read more click here.

Martin Vladimirov,
Expert on Balkan-Black Sea External Relations and Energy Security

It has been two decades now since the southern energy corridor, linking the energy producing Caspian and Middle East regions with European consumers, was incepted. The 1990s proved to be very successful after the U.S. was able to fill in the geopolitical vacuum in the Wider Black Sea region and divert significant amounts of Caspian oil and gas away from Russia and in direction Europe. Yet the strong push for diversification of the European energy supply came to a sudden halt after 9/11. The U.S. changed its geopolitical priorities focusing on the destabilized Middle East and South Asia. Since then the EU has been painfully searching for alternatives in accessing the vast Caspian reserves. The Nabucco gas pipeline, which has been seen as the strategic continuation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) corridor, has remained only a distant dream as gas quantities available are simply not enough to fill the 31 billion cubic meters (bcm) pipeline capacity. READ MORE

by Marat Terterov,
EGF Director

1. What does Nord Stream mean for the energy security of the European Union?

There seems to be a strong debate about the impact of Nord Stream on EU energy security. On the one hand, we have the “side of the house” which feels that the project will make European gas consumers even more dependent on Russian gas supplies than they already are and that it will further strengthen Russian’s “grip” on the European gas imports market. READ MORE

In a recent briefing on Russia, this Forum expressed the view that Moscow is becoming an increasingly assertive regional player in the wider Black and Caspian Sea (BCS) basin and that energy remains a key Russian priority for the region. We commented in that report that the Russian state-controlled energy holding, Gazprom, provided Moscow with a significant instrument to exercise power in the region. 
The company has been widely employed as a means of developing (geo)-politically relevant energy cooperation with other former-Soviet states of the region, as well as securing bilateral energy deals with select foreign corporate and state partners. Yet a substantial degree of uncertainty has recently begun to emerge around Gazprom’s corporate prospects for the near term, clouding its capacity of advancing Russian geopolitical interests both in the BCS region as well as the wider European context. READ MORE

In recent years energy security has become not only a political buzzword but a fundamental concept in (re)shaping relations between governments within the framework of a newly emerging global energy order. Furthermore, factors such as the growing asymmetrical dependence of energy consuming states on producing states, the delicate question of transport (particularly the definition of future pipeline routes), changing trends of economic development, and geopolitical tensions tend to distort established negotiating positions and shift the balance of global power relations. In such a complicated context, it is easy to overlook developments in countries such as Poland which are not in the international spotlight. As Poland has shown resilience in avoiding recession and is becoming an important player in the international arena, it may be interesting to examine the actual dynamics and the core challenges of the country’s energy sector. READ MORE

Dr. Marat Terterov, EGF Principal Director, gave a lecture at Gubkin Oil and Gas University, Moscow, on November 19, 2010 on the topic “Energy and Geopolitics in Eurasia: why has energy become a factor of tension rather than a factor of cooperation ?” Please click here to read the key messages of the lecture.

Dr. Marat Terterov spoke at the International Conference, Gas Forum 2010 on 13th -14th September, 2010 in Warsaw, Poland, addressing the topic of “Old players, new identities and bargaining Instruments: A cost-benefit discussion of Southern Corridor oil and gas pipeline.” Please click here to read the key messages of the lecture and here to visit the conference program.

Over the last decade, two energy rings have been forming in the Balkan/Caspian oil and gas pipeline/energy supply route context, first in Turkey and then in Greece. As a result, both countries have been elevated to the role of strategic energy corridor territories, linking the energy-rich Caspian region with Europe. Both Turkey and Greece exhibit vast potential in connecting Caspian supply sources with Western markets, both independently of one another as well as in unison. Taking this into account, the EU and the US in particular have endorsed policies which have privileged Turkey as the main interconnector between Europe and the Caspian in the scramble for European energy security. However, Ankara’s current geopolitical reorientation towards Russia (with whom it has developed a pragmatic, yet strong energy partnership) and the Middle East, along with the several security-political shortcomings that undermine the stability of the Turkish energy grid, might lead toward a rethinking of Western energy policy toward the alternative, emergent Greek (energy) ring. READ MORE

The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.

Leading Russian and international energy professionals have shared their views on these energy policy challenges in an online session. Click here to go into the discussions or here to view forum summary