By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Russia all gained something as a result of the second Karabakh war, while Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh lost almost everything.
The second Karabakh war ended with catastrophic results for Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The trilateral statement signed by Russian, Armenian, and Azerbaijani leaders on November 10 was a clear capitulation of the Armenian sides. During the 26 long years of negotiations under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group, several settlement plans have been elaborated and offered to the conflict sides […]. However, none of them were as disastrous for Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic as the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Iran and Turkey have a long history of rivalry in the Middle East. As two key regional powers, they were vying for influence and seeking to expand their spheres of influence. After WWII both Iran and Turkey had an anti-Soviet attitude and participated in the Central Treaty Organization with the key goal to contain the Soviet Union. The Cold War has halted bilateral competition, while the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran has significantly changed the regional balance of power. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

A proposed China-Iran 25 year strategic agreement may change the power balance in the wider Middle East. It may also increase Chinese interests in Armenia.
In January 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping became the first world leader to visit Tehran following the lifting of international sanctions alongside the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The visit resulted in the signing of 17 agreements on issues ranging from energy to boosting bilateral trade to $600bn. Now, discussions are underway regarding the possibility of a new China-Iran 25-year strategic partnership deal - an idea floated by President Xi, which has apparently received a warm reception amongst the Iranian leadership. READ MORE

By Ong Tee Keat, Chairman, Center for New Inclusive Asia, Kuala Lumpur

On March 11th , 2020, Robert Redfield, the director of US Center for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), dropped a proverbial bombshell when he testified to the US Congress admitting that numerous Corona virus deaths might have been miscategorized as flu. This belated admission of misdiagnosis has further lent credence to the earlier speculation that many pulmonary fibrosis cases which resulted in deaths due to patients' inability to breathe might in fact have been caused by the Corona virus. These cases, where symptoms might have been masked by attributions to e-cigarette or vaping, happened well before the virus outbreak in Wuhan, China. READ MORE.

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Peacekeeping operations are one of the key domains of international relations. They play a paramount role in securing stability and fostering international cooperation. Currently, fourteen peacekeeping operations around the globe are led by the UN Department of Peace operations. Several other international organizations are involved in peacekeeping missions, but the UN is the ultimate authority in this sphere. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

After the collapse of the Soviet Union the newly independent successor states faced numerous challenges: economic collapse, ethnic conflicts, and a rapid introduction of market reforms which ushered in large scale poverty as well as a quick enrichment of very small portion of the population. At the same time, there was a constant flow of Western experts and consultants who were embedded in almost all state institutions. In the first decade of independence there was a vague but widespread perception that the ultimate destination of former Soviet republics would be membership of the Euro-Atlantic institutions - EU and NATO. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The COVID – 19 pandemic triggered a fierce debate among experts of international relations on the key features of the post COVID-19 world. There are several predictions and assessments – the end of globalization, the enhanced role of nation states, and a shift in global supply chains. It’s too early and difficult to assess what the world will look like decades from now, however, almost all experts have agreed on one thing; there will be no return to the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s, when the US enjoyed absolute power and unconstrained possibilities. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Relations with Iran have always been high on Armenia's foreign policy agenda. Given the closed borders with Azerbaijan and Georgia, Iran is one of only two gateways to the world for Armenia. Friendly relations with this neighboring Muslim state play a significant role in Armenian efforts to counter Azerbaijan in its attempts to depict the Karabakh conflict as a religious one and thus garner the Muslim world's support against Armenia. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On March 31, 2020 presidential and parliamentary elections were held in unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic. Five parties entered the Parliament, while President was elected during the second round, on April 14. The winner of the Presidential campaign was Arayik Harutyunyan, who received 49 percent of votes during the first round and 88 percent during the second round. However, his main contender Masis Mayilyan de facto boycotted second round asking his supporters not to participate in the elections due to the COVID19 outbreak. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The COVID-19 pandemic has confronted governments with two massive simultaneous challenges. They have to contain the virus through large scale social distancing to prevent the uncontrolled growth of infected people and collapse of the health system. Meanwhile, each day that passes with economic activity virtually suspended puts an enormous pressure on businesses, and contributes to a possible social and financial collapse. Armenia faces the same dilemma. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The COVID-19 pandemic has confronted governments with two massive simultaneous challenges. They have to contain the virus through large scale social distancing to prevent the uncontrolled growth of infected people and collapse of the health system. Meanwhile, each day that passes with economic activity virtually suspended puts an enormous pressure on businesses, and contributes to a possible social and financial collapse. Armenia faces the same dilemma. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Elections were held in Nagorno-Karabakh on 31 March but since no candidate secured the necessary amount of votes a run-off is now expected between the two leading candidates in two weeks-time.
On March 31, 2020 Presidential and Parliamentary elections were held in Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh). Elections are not something new for Karabakh. Since the mid-1990s regular general as well as local elections have been held there. However, this time almost everything was different, such as the record number of candidates (14 running for the office of President and 10 parties and 2 blocks for Parliament) and the fully proportional electoral system. However, the key difference was the ambiguity of the position of Republic of Armenia's leadership. READ MORE

By Ahmad Alili, Head of Research, Caucasus Policy Analysis Center, Baku

At the dawn of the unipolar international system – following the collapse of the Communist system in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus – “the end of history” was announced. It was expected that the benevolent hegemony of the United States would last for many decades to come – liberal values and democracy would be spread to each corner of the world. The events of recent years and the chaos in the international order shows that the world is transforming from a unipolar world into a multipolar one. This transformation process has its reverberations in regions such as the South Caucasus. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Two key topics concerning Georgia dominated the attention of the international media and expert community interested in the South Caucasus in past week. One was the outbreak of the novel Coronavirus and the growing number of cases identified in Georgia; the second issue was connected with domestic politics.[…] However, from regional perspective the key event of the past week was the official visit of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Georgia on March 3 - 4. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On February 21, 2020 Iranians went to polling stations to elect their new parliament. Despite all the statements of Iran's leadership, including of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, of the importance of a high turnout, only 42 percent of registered voters casted their ballots, the lowest figure since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Many inside and outside Iran saw this low turnout as a tacit protest of a large part of the electorate against the Guardian Council's decision to cancel the registration of many moderate and reformist candidates. Supreme Leader blamed the low turnout on the "negative propaganda" about the new coronavirus by Iran's enemies. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On February 9, 2020 early parliamentary elections were held in Azerbaijan. According to preliminary results the ruling "New Azerbaijan" party has won a clear majority, while, some representatives of opposition, such as Erkin Gadirli from REAL, have entered the Parliament. However, the main speculation around the elections was not the name of the winner; few if any had expectations that ruling party may lose the elections, or that the process will be in full compliance with liberal democracy requirements. The key question is on the implications of these elections for the domestic balance of power in Azerbaijan, and the future development of the country. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On February 9, 2020 early parliamentary elections were held in Azerbaijan. According to preliminary results the ruling "New Azerbaijan" party has won a clear majority, while, some representatives of opposition, such as Erkin Gadirli from REAL, have entered the Parliament. However, the main speculation around the elections was not the name of the winner; few if any had expectations that ruling party may lose the elections, or that the process will be in full compliance with liberal democracy requirements. The key question is on the implications of these elections for the domestic balance of power in Azerbaijan, and the future development of the country. READ MORE

By Eduard Abrahamyan, Senior Fellow with the London-based Institute for Statecraft

Armenia’s 2018 Velvet Revolution raised hopes for a reinvigoration of the country’s decades-long partnership with the U.S. However, this relationship remains stagnant, despite the visit of a U.S. delegation led by National Security Advisor John Bolton in October 2018 and the subsequent visit of Deputy Assistant Secretary George Kent to Yerevan in May 2019, resulting in the formal elevation of Armenia’s relations with the U.S. to the level of “strategic dialogue.” Moreover, Yerevan’s decision to dispatch a military-humanitarian mission to Syria remains an irritant in its interaction with Washington. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

With Pompeo due in Minsk this week, and the Belarus presidential elections on the horizon, Moscow and Minsk have some difficult decisions to take.
Relations between Russia and Belarus are one of the hotly debated issues among pundits dealing with the politics of the post-Soviet space. Till recently bilateral relations were focused on economic cooperation, and more particularly, on the price of Russian gas and oil delivered to Belarus. In 2019 the accent shifted towards the practical implementation of the 1999 Union State treaty. The looming power transition in Russia in 2024, when President Putin fourth Presidential term expires, has inflamed the debate on the possibility of President Putin becoming the President of the Union state after 2024. This scenario was discussed as a possible way for President Putin to extend his power beyond 2024. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The recent US – Iran escalation is the hot topic for the Middle East pundits. Many policy briefs have already been published discussing the motives behind the US and Iran actions, the implications of these developments on the US Presidential campaign and Iranian Parliamentary elections. Many experts are seeking to assess the future of the US – Iran relations and the Iran’s influence in the region. Meanwhile, US – Iran tensions which fell short of a full blown war will have an impact also on Russia – Iran relations and in particular on their uneasy partnership in Syria. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

In 2019, the EU and six Partner states are celebrating the 10th anniversary of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) program. Many conferences, expert workshops and other events were organized to assess the success and failures of the EaP. Meanwhile, alongside assessments of the past, the future of the program is also being actively discussed. EU even launched the ‘Structured Consultation” on the future strategic direction of the EaP and tasked the European Commission and the European External Action Service to present proposals. Member States and Eastern Partners, as well as other actors, including civil society, academia and think-tanks were invited to share their views on a new post-2020 policy framework, and the perspectives of EU enlargement. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The South Caucasus always has quite complicated geopolitics. Russia, the US, the EU, Iran, Turkey, and China all have interests here. Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have different domestic political structures and cultures. Besides that, their national security threat perception and foreign policy goals do not coincide with each other. The protracted conflicts in Nagorno Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia make the regional geopolitics even more complicated. All actors involved in the South Caucasus seek to exploit these conflicts to pursue their national interests; meanwhile, conflicting parties themselves have an absolutely different understanding on how these conflicts may be resolved. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

”Recent waves of protests in Iran that broke out as a result of the Government decision to significantly raise gasoline prices, pose potential problems to all of its neighbors, including Armenia. One of the most critical problems can be the possible influx of refugees into the territory of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh.
Domestic instability in Iran is a source of concern for all its neighbors, including Armenia. Iran is one of the only two open borders Armenia has to reach the outside world. Any significant weakening of Iranian state institutions may complicate the export and import operations through Iran which definitely will put additional pressure on the Armenian economy. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The international security architecture is undergoing tremendous transformations. The relative decline of the US influence, rising China, more confident Russia, turmoil in the Middle East, rift in transatlantic relations and growing populism are the key patterns of current international relations. These developments are influencing virtually all regions of the world. Changes are not circumventing South Caucasus too. The region witnessed Armenian “Velvet revolution” in 2018, the protests and change of government in Georgia in June – September 2019 and, most recently, significant political transformations in Azerbaijan resulting in resignation of many key representatives of old ruling elites. READ MORE

By Armine Arzumanyan, Graduate of Renmin University, PR of China

China's main goals in Central Asia may not directly hint at the region's long-term strategic importance, but the outcomes of China's engagement in the region clearly show concrete signs of it. China's emergence as the dominant actor in the region’s energy and infrastructure sectors, along with its growing presence as the lender of choice for Central Asia, has had deep consequences as Beijing has quietly cultivated the defense component of its newfound presence in region. Though relatively little studied, China's energy-infrastructure-defense tridimensional approach is of immense importance. READ MORE.

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Prospects of Russia - China relations are currently hotly debated by international security pundits. The West in general, and the US in particular, see these two states as key adversaries seeking to undermine the international world order. Simultaneously, the prevailing mood among Western expert and academic circles is confident that, at the end of the day, China is a more significant challenge to Russia than it is to the West, given the vast and scarcely populated areas of Siberia and the Russian Far East bordering China. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The US – China relations are usually described as the most powerful force to shape the global security architecture for the upcoming decades. They have gone through tremendous transformations over the recent 45 years. The opening to China launched by the Nixon Administration was part of a US strategy to deter and contain the Soviet Union. Since the late 1980s the US have accelerated its economic relations with China creating a heavy interdependence. READ MORE

Joint Study with “Yeni nesil”, coordinated by Boris Navasardian, President, Yerevan Press Club

The main purpose of this study was to consider the feasibility and prospects of revival of the Track-2 diplomacy and the development of appropriate recommendations. Although it was conceived and supported by the US government even before the political changes in Armenia, its relevance was confirmed by the intensification of the dialogue at the official level between Yerevan and Baku in the summer of 2018. Certain characteristics of the renewed interest in the informal communication were revealed during the visit to Yerevan of the Azerbaijani journalist Shahin Hajiyev, in February 2019, and by the interest of Armenian journalists to visit the neighboring country. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The relations (or the lack thereof) between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and European Union (EU) are one of the key topics of debate between international relations pundits. There are different assessments regarding the current situation and the way forward. However, almost all experts agree that the key issue here resides in the relationship between Russia and the West (US/EU/NATO). As long as this relationship is at its lowest point since the end of the Cold War, there is almost no chance of any substantial cooperation between these two organizations. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia and China are both among the ancient civilizations of human history. They share millennia of mutual contacts via the ancient Silk Road. However, history is not the only thing which unites the two nations. Both Armenians and Chinese put enormous emphasis on protecting their national identities and traditions. Of course, this does not mean that Armenia and China are not interested or involved in the current wave of globalization. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Turkey is successfully managing to implement a strategic balancing act in its relations with the US and Russia. Other regional actors may look at this policy and take good note.
Since the summer 2016 Turkish foreign policy has been facing a tough challenge: how to balance its growing partnership with Russia with its relations with the US? The rising tensions between the US and Russia, as well as the widening gap between the US and Turkish interests in Syria, the refusal by Washington to extradite cleric Fetullah Gulen, and simmering doubts among the Turkish leadership regarding the possible involvement of the US in the 2016 July military coup attempt, make this task even more daunting. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

South Caucasus is a part of EU’s Eastern Partnership program. Launched in 2009, the Eastern Partnership envisages fostering relations between the EU and six former Soviet Union republics – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The key goal of this program is the signature of Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements to bring about political association and economic integration. The top priority for the EU has been the political and economic development of the region, as Brussels did not want to have a permanent source of instability in its immediate neighborhood. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia and Georgia have a long history of relations. In more recent times both republics were parts of the Soviet Union, and after the collapse of the latter the two states have found themselves involved in the regional geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Each of them chose its own foreign policy priorities based upon relevant perceptions of vital national interests. Armenia, being under joint Azerbaijani – Turkish pressure due to the Karabakh conflict and with memories of 1915 Armenian Genocide still fresh has no alternative but to establish political-military alliance with Russia. Georgia, with historical grievances over Russia’s role in demolishing Georgian independent statehood and still fresh memories of April 1989 tragic events in downtown Tbilisi, chose the path towards Euro-Atlantic integration. READ MORE

By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Relations with the United States are of significant importance for Armenia. Despite the relative decline in the US position as the only world super power, Washington still remains the number one global power in the world. The US is a Minsk Group Co-chair country, actively involved in the Karabakh conflict settlement process, and it exerts great influence in the neighborhood of Armenia. America is also home for the most influential part of Armenian Diaspora, which may play a key role in bringing desperately needed investments into the Armenian economy. READ MORE