By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Azerbaijan has adjusted its foreign policy agenda to target the Balkan region that is more vulnerable to the energy crisis than the states of Central and Western Europe.
Energy has long been the core element of Azerbaijan's pragmatic foreign policy, and recently it gained more impetus as European nations sought additional energy suppliers to replace Russian fossil fuel exports. Although the EU’s leading member countries are able to compensate for energy shortages by using energy reserves, employing alternative energy sources and importing additional gas volumes from alternative suppliers, the less developed Balkan states are struggling to adapt to the energy deficit. Azerbaijan has adjusted its foreign policy agenda to target the Balkan region that is more vulnerable to the energy crisis than the states of Central and Western Europe. READ MORE

By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Israeli-Azerbaijani relations are based on two main pillars: patient and cordial political relations as well as defence cooperation and arms sales. While the former reached a more intensive level this year, with the opening of an Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv in late March, the latter pillar of the relationship was well developed long before, as Israel became Azerbaijan’s largest weapons supplier.
After decades of keeping a low diplomatic profile vis-à-vis Israel, in November 2022 the Azerbaijani parliament approved a bill on opening an embassy in Tel Aviv. This was a historic decision as, until then, Azerbaijan had consistently rejected Israeli overtures to send a permanent ambassador, despite the opening of an Israeli embassy in Baku in August 1993. It took almost 30 years for Azerbaijan to reciprocate since the country’s leadership did not want to alienate other Muslim-majority states or provoke the Iranian authorities, who blamed Israel for worsening relations along the Baku-Tehran axis. However, in the wake of the 2020 signing of the Abraham Accords on diplomatic normalization between Israel and Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates, followed by the exchange of Israeli and Turkish ambassadors two years later, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev felt that the time was right to follow suit. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

2023 marks the centennial of the establishment of the Republic of Turkey, when the Turkish Grand National Assembly led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk proclaimed the establishment of the republic and the abolishment of the Caliphate that ruled Ottoman Turks for six centuries. For decades, the Kemalists and military-backed governments ruled Türkiye with a secular iron hand. It wasn’t until 2002, when the conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power that Kemalists’ monopoly on power was challenged, ending decades of unstable coalition governments. AKP’s early years were relatively peaceful, as the country experienced fast economic growth and continued openness to the West. However, as the authorities began facing domestic and regional challenges, illiberal democracy started to consolidate itself in Türkiye. In 2013, protests erupted in opposition to building a shopping mall in Istanbul’s Gezi Park. The government violently cracked down on the movement and began limiting civil liberties and curtailing press freedoms. Moreover, a failed coup attempt in 2016 consolidated authoritarianism in the country. READ MORE

By Vusal GULIYEV, Visiting Research Fellow at the Asian Studies Center of Boğaziçi University

Located at a key geopolitical and geo-economic point in the Silk Road region, Azerbaijan has been a main initiator in the development of technologically advanced and economically viable trans-border logistics and transit services. This is largely due to Baku’s embrace of a wide spectrum of digitalization and innovation initiatives within the broad-based connectivity framework of the Middle Corridor Initiative (MCI) and other similar such projects. This IDD analytical policy brief will examine various aspects of this important topic as it relates to MCI.
Seizing new opportunities in the digital era whilst developing better measures to boost the digital economy and trade with embedded innovation and emerging technologies has become one of Azerbaijan’s top priorities in the past few years. In the wake of significant government-backed digital transformation efforts, special attention is now being placed on enhancing the variety of logistics services on offer, building cutting-edge infrastructure, and upgrading domestic communication systems. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

Armenians in Lebanon are a deeply institutionalized and politicized community. Given its transnational nature, the community is affected by international, regional, and local developments. For this reason, the political parties and the community leadership analyse local events and position themselves in the Lebanese political space based on local, regional, and sometimes pan-Armenian calculations or interests. Hence the community, like other transnational ethno-religious groups, absorbs from its surroundings and reacts accordingly to preserve itself from security threats. […] This policy brief will also raise a few recommendations regarding new strategies and the need to adopt a vision for the future of the community amid the wave of uncertainties surrounding Lebanon. READ MORE

By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Georgia borders Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Turkey. It remains a transit hub for oil and gas pipelines originating in Azerbaijan and a road hub for goods coming from Iran via Armenia to the European Union (EU), from Armenia and travelling to Russia, and from Turkey and travelling to Russia and Azerbaijan. As a result, changes that are taking place in the Caucasus due to the Russian war against Ukraine are directly affecting Georgia. Russia as a gatekeeper in the South Caucasus is less able to defend its interests in the region and that results in the ongoing skirmishes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iranian military exercises on the border with Azerbaijan, and reciprocal Azerbaijani-Turkish exercises. Thus far, Georgia has kept itself out of the conflict and has even tried to play the role of mediator in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but to no avail, since Georgia is not considered a powerful enough conflict mediator. READ MORE

By Nika CHITADZE, PhD, Director of the Center for International Studies, Tbilisi

At the beginning of March 2023, the Parliament of Georgia discussed and supported by the first hearing (with 76 votes) two draft laws regarding the “agents of foreign influence”. The discussion took place against the background of fierce protests both inside and outside the Parliament building. The bills were submitted by the political party “People’s Power”, which is a satellite of the Georgian Dream ruling party. Initially, the draft law “On transparency of foreign influence” was registered in the Parliament. To “ensure transparency”, the new law required the registration of non-entrepreneurial (non-commercial) legal entities and media means which received more than 20% of their income from abroad as “agents of foreign influence”. READ MORE

By Ambassador Dilyor KHAKIMOV, Ambassador of the Republic of Uzbekistan in Belgium

Over the past year, under the leadership of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan has embarked upon a national dialogue. Input, feedback, and affirmations from tens of thousands of Uzbek citizens have guided the drafting of a revised Constitution. In recent days, a flurry of activity has occurred that may soon make this draft official and usher in a fresh era for our country as we build a “New Uzbekistan.” Last week, the draft Constitution was considered in the Legislative Chamber and was approved for submission to a referendum on April 30. Then, on Monday, March 13, the Constitutional Court of Uzbekistan ruled that the decision by the Legislative Chamber to hold a referendum was in constitutional compliance. Finally, the Senate, just yesterday, March 14, confirmed this decision and approved the draft for submission to a constitutional referendum that will take place on April 30. READ MORE.

By Nuray Alekberli, Researcher, Strategic Studies Consulting Company, Baku

In August 2022, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia have signed an "Agreement amongst three countries on preliminary information exchange for the facilitation of transit customs procedures within the framework of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway project" (az.trend.az, 19 August). This agreement aimed at simplifying customs procedures and accelerating border crossing procedures within the framework of the BTK railway project through organizing an electronic exchange of initial information about goods (report.az, 18 August 2022). Therefore, somehow it plays the role of a new breath from a technical point of view to remove obstacles and speed up trade and economic relations between Asian markets and Europe. READ MORE.

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

For the last weeks Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations on a peaceful normalisation of relations appeared stalled. The stand-off with Azerbaijani activists on the Lachin Corridor continues to hinder progress. The US initiative to organize a Pashinyan – Aliyev meeting at the latest Munich Security Conference was "a step in the right direction". It gave a new breath of life to the negotiation process, and efforts are underway to revive the Brussels format and organize the fifth Pashinyan – Aliyev meeting in Brussels with the participation of the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.
After the brief momentum in Armenia – Azerbaijan negotiations in late September - early October 2022, the peace process seemed to stall. Assessing what went wrong after the 6 October 2022 Prague meeting is challenging. However, the Sochi summit held on 31 October and the meeting between foreign ministers held in Washington on 7 November did not add optimism to the future of the negotiation process. […]
Nevertheless, Armenia and Azerbaijan continued to work on the draft of the peace treaty, exchanging suggestions and ideas, and Yerevan sent its version of the final document to Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair states in mid-February. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On December 12, under the pretext of environmentalism, dozens of Azerbaijani state-backed “eco-activists” blocked the only land corridor in the Stepanakert-Shushi section connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. As anticipated, the “environmental” slogans were soon politicized, and political demands were raised by enforcing a blockade. A humanitarian disaster was created for the 120,000 Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh. The real question is why Azerbaijan went for such a provocation and at what risk? Hence, in this article, I will shed light on the current crisis based on my meetings with Azerbaijani experts (keeping their identities anonymous) on the sidelines of several international conferences and online interviews I have conducted to analyze the Azerbaijani perspective and highlight the threats, arguing that the current humanitarian crisis is much deeper than the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, and it is related with the “battle of corridors” and beyond. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The COVID–19 and the war in Ukraine have triggered the disruption of global supply chains forcing states to look for alternative transport routes to conduct trade and other economic activities. As one of the rising stars of the global economy, which just passed the UK to become the fifth largest economy in the world, India has looked for ways to expand its connections within Greater Eurasia even before the Pandemic and the Ukraine war. Given the increasing volume of cargo passing through the Suez channel, and the 2021 incident that blocked that waterway, India's primary task is establishing new routes to circumvent Suez while reaching Europe. In September 2000, India, Russia, and Iran declared their intention to establish an International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to connect India with Russia and Northern Europe via Iran. Several other countries joined the project later, and currently, three routes are being discussed as a part of that corridor. The western route will pass via Iran and Azerbaijan, Trans-Caspian route will connect the Caspian Sea ports of Russia and Iran, and the Eastern Route will pass via Iran, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The devastating earthquakes of 7.8 and 7.5 magnitudes struck southern Turkey on February 6, 2023. As of February 12, the death toll passed 30,000, while the number of wounded reached almost 100,000. More than 12,000 buildings were destroyed, and large-scale rescue operations are underway. Besides the immense human tragedy, the earthquake will have domestic and foreign policy implications for Turkey. The country faces crucial presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 14. After the earthquake, discussions started about possibly postponing the elections, given the scale of destruction.
Turkey’s authorities have declared a three-month emergency in provinces affected by the earthquake. Many wonder about the possibility of pursuing an election campaign in the current circumstances. According to Turkey’s constitution, elections should occur by June 18, 2023. Only the start of a war gives authorities a legal option to postpone elections for one year. However, some experts argue that the government may apply to the Constitutional court asking for a one-year postponement claiming that the current emergency equals the launch of military activities. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Azerbaijan has closed the Lachin corridor since December 12, 2022. There are different interpretations of why Azerbaijan did it, and why Baku continues the blockade despite calls from the international community to change its course. Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, and the West, in one way or another, all suffer from the blockade. Ultimately, it is up to the Azerbaijani leadership to decide to re-open the road.
Azerbaijan has closed the Lachin corridor since December 12, 2022. Azerbaijani official rhetoric rejects the very existence of a blockade, sometimes claiming that the road is open for humanitarian cargo, and sometimes saying that it was the Russian troops that closed the corridor. The official line from Azerbaijan is the narrative that those blocking the corridor are "independent eco-activists exercising their civil rights to protest." However, the situation is apparent to anyone with a basic understanding of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict – Azerbaijan imposed a blockade on the self-proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh Republic. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The defeat in the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war shocked Armenia and Armenians all around the world. It ruined many perceptions deeply entrenched in political elites, expert and academic communities, and broader society: including that the Armenian army was the strongest in the South Caucasus, that Russia would not allow Turkey's involvement in Azerbaijan's war against Armenia, and that the West would not allow authoritarian Azerbaijan and Turkey to attack democratic Armenia. All these assumptions were crushed within 44 days, leaving Armenia facing a much harsher geopolitical reality. Despite this terrible outcome, many in Armenia believed that the November 10, 2020, trilateral statement would foment a new status quo. READ MORE

By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On November 11, a summit of the leaders of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) convened in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. This major gathering came amid the OTS’s re-emerging significance as a key regional organization and a critical platform for rapprochement between the Central Asia and Caucasus regions. The official Samarkand Declaration, which was signed as a final accord by the attendees, paves the way for a comprehensive partnership format among the OTS member states. The Samarkand meeting represented the major political gathering for the Turkic nations in 2022, and it will further facilitate dialogue and regional interconnectivity between the OTS member states—independent of Russian and Western influence. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The war in Ukraine brought Russia – West relations to the lowest point since the early Cold war years of the 1950s. Discussions about the emergence of Cold War 2.0 were prevalent among experts and the academic community well before February 24, 2022. The starting point was perhaps President Putin's famous 2007 Munich security conference speech. However, the current confusion in global geopolitics is quite different from the original Cold War. In the second part of the 20th century, the world was bipolar, as the US and Soviet Union were fighting each other. Many countries sought to avoid this confrontation through membership in the Non–aligned movement, but it never became a third pole. Now the situation is much more complicated. As the US and Russia are facing each other in a new rendition of a Cold War, the world is far from being bipolar. It may eventually end with a new bipolar system, but Russia will not be among the top two players. If bipolarity ever returns, the US and China will be the building blocks of that system. READ MORE

By Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan’s chairmanship in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has fallen on a dynamic period, fraught with various events and trends – the period of the «historical rift», when one era comes to an end and another begins – thus far unpredictable and unknown.
The modern system of international cooperation, based on the universal principles and norms, begins to falter. One of the main reasons for this is a deep crisis of trust at the global level, which, in turn, provokes a geopolitical confrontation and the risk of reviving the bloc thinking stereotypes. This process of mutual alienation complicates the return of the world economy to its former course of development and the restoration of global supply chains. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On October 25, 2022, Russia’s Foreign Ministry accused the West of pressuring Armenia to cut its traditionally close ties with Moscow to squeeze Russia out of the South Caucasus. Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson of the Russian FM, also warned that the West is planting anti-Russian sentiment in Armenian society. Zakharova’s statement came in response to an article published in Haygagan Jamanag (a newspaper belonging to Pashinyan’s family), accusing Moscow of trying to annex Armenia and create a union state with Russia. In response to Zakharova’s comments, Vigen Khachatryan, an MP from Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party, called on his government to “revise” relations with Russia as “Moscow is not a reliable ally”.
Russian newspapers and media outlets have also been accusing Armenia of signing a secret agreement with Azerbaijan in Washington. On October 10, 2022, the Russian Telegram Channel “Siloviki” posted the “Washington proposal,” an unconfirmed document that notes Azerbaijan’s nomination of a representative to work with an Armenian counterpart designated by the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh to “discuss the rights and securities… and provide confidence regarding the protection of the Armenian minority groups in Nagorno-Karabakh.” This means Armenia was going to recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh and push the Russian peacekeepers from the region before 2025. These accusations were refuted by the US. READ MORE

By Faridun Sattarov, PhD, DSc, University of World Economy and Diplomacy, Uzbekistan

On September 15-16 of this year, 14 heads of state are expected to attend the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which will be held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. This event will be the first face-to-face meeting of SCO leaders since 2019 and will conclude Uzbekistan’s presidency of the organization.
In addition to the leaders of the SCO member states, which include Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, the summit will host the presidents of Iran, Belarus, and Mongolia as observers, as well as the heads of Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan as invited guests. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Over the last year multiple formats have emerged in Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations, and three main external players: Russia, the EU and the US are involved in the mediation process. This may lead to some confusion. Big power rivalry may also negatively impact the process. Some co-ordinating mechanism is necessary, and a format, at least involving Russia and the EU, could also help to combine their efforts.

While the South Caucasus marked the second anniversary of the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war, negotiations to sign a peace agreement between Armenia – Azerbaijan have become increasingly complex. If during the first year after the war, it was Russia that almost exclusively controlled the process, now we have many actors with contradicting interests and visions. The EU entered the game first, organizing four summits between Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in the period of December 2021 – August 2022, simultaneously launching a new format of negotiations between the Secretary of the Armenian security council and top foreign policy aide to President Aliyev. Russia was watching the growing EU involvement in the process, messaging its concerns about the EU's desire to take the initiative from the Kremlin. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the South Caucasus becomes increasingly involved in the great power competition, and the US-Russia confrontation impacts regional geopolitics, Iran looks for additional ways to secure its national interests. Iran’s top foreign policy priority remains the Middle East, where Tehran seeks to consolidate its power and influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. However, Iran views the South Caucasus as a significant region where Tehran should continue its presence and prevent anti-Iranian developments.
Iran is concerned with growing Azerbaijan-Israel political, economic, and military cooperation. Israel was one of the biggest weapons suppliers to Azerbaijan before, during, and after the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war. According to several sources and reports, Israel’s security services actively use Azerbaijan territory for their anti-Iranian activities. Azerbaijan established control over the 130 km long Nagorno Karabakh-Iran border due to the 2020 war and opened two airports there – Fizuli and Zangelan – located very close to the Azerbaijan-Iran border. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

A survey was recently conducted by the Tehran International Studies and Research Institute (TISRI) to study international security priorities and Iran’s foreign policy. The survey was conducted among 384 academic scholars in different Iranian universities (Tehran, Allameh Tabataba’i, Tabriz, Guilan, Shiraz and Razi of Kermanshah) and among researchers and experts in the Caucasus region. The survey resulted in certain proposals calling for an Iranian foreign policy shift toward the South Caucasus, identifying geopolitical risks and providing suggestions on how Iran can help in stabilizing the region. According to the study, it seems Iranian scholars, experts and analysts are concerned about the security and geopolitical risks in the post-2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war regional system in the South Caucasus. Here are the concluding results of this study. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The first face to face meeting between Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, and Turkish President, Recip Tayip Erdogan, took place in Prague on 6 October, on the margins of the summit of the European Political Community. Whilst in the summer there was hope of an early breakthrough in the Armenia-Turkey normalisation, decisions agreed by the special envoys of the two countries have not been implemented. May this latest meeting stimulate normalization, or further work in the process of building confidence and trust is required?
The first week of October 2022 was marked by intensive diplomacy around the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. The September 13-14, 2022, Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia threw the region back to the brink of a new large-scale war. It seemed that months-long Armenia – Azerbaijan negotiations facilitated by the European Council President Charles Michel were fruitless. However, despite bleak predictions, a new wave of diplomatic activity was launched immediately after the ceasefire was reached on September 14. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

During a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Tehran on July 19, the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned against blocking the Armenian-Iranian border, stating, “If there is an effort to block the border between Iran and Armenia, the Islamic Republic will oppose it because this border has been a communication route for thousands of years.” After this warning, Turkish and Azerbaijani media started paying more attention to Iranian officials and launched a “war of words.” In response to media provocations and threats toward Armenia launched by Azerbaijan, Iran facilitated the appointment of a Consulate General in Syunik to redraw its “red lines” in the South Caucasus. READ MORE