by Dr Jack Sharples (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher)
Mike Fulwood (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)
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We analyse the drivers behind ongoing price rally and offer an outlook for the coming winter. On the global LNG market, unexpected outages meant that growth in supply simply did not keep pace with the increase in demand. Given its role as the ‘balancing market’, European LNG imports declined. This combined with declines in European production and pipeline imports to open a supply gap that could only be met by withdrawals from storage. We conclude that with gas markets noticeably tighter, the ongoing price rally is driven by fundamentals, with an added ‘fear premium’ that the forthcoming winter could be as cold as that in 2020/21. If that proves to be the case, the current price levels will persist, and even rise, while a milder winter could see the market turn slightly more bearish. READ MORE.

By Eldor TULYAKOV, Executive Director, Development Strategy Centre
Furkat YUNUSOV, Head of Department, Development Strategy Centre

Four years ago, Uzbekistan launched reforms critical to the development of its economic sphere. Based on the Strategy of Actions, the document responsible for outlining the priorities for the country’s growth for the period of 2017-2021, as a metric we have arrived at initial finding, with several indicators demonstrating progress, most notably the areas of public administration, social and civic institutions, mass-media, economic advances, among others. The past four years have evidenced precise results and demonstrated more advanced methods to take these priority areas forward. READ MORE

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Undoubtedly, the Russian annexation of Crimea in March 2014 caused serious damage to the Ukrainian Naval Forces. About 70 per cent of the fleet has been lost and what remained is in poor shape and in need of repairs.
The resulting conflict in the Eastern part of Ukraine drew attention, energy and resources away from the difficult state of the Ukrainian Navy towards the urgent needs of the army and air force. The perilous state of the economy has further decreased financial support for the Navy’s needs. In addition, a debate on the conceptual vision of the Navy divided the expert community and top naval personnel for about 15 months. READ MORE