By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

In his book “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics” one of the world’s leading realist scholars John J. Mearsheimer argues that in an unbalanced multipolarity, the balance of power is so asymmetrically distributed in favour of one side, that other great powers have no choice but to come together to balance the hegemonic power. This is the only rational choice among other great powers. As such, this kind of international order is fragile and always prone to wars. Within this logic, many would assume that Eurasian powers such as Russia and China should have fully backed Iran or its non-state allies in the Middle East to defeat Israel, or at least contain US interests in the region. Interestingly, this is not the case. Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi (another rising Eurasian power) are engaging in strategic balance and realpolitik to assess the situation, waiting for the outcome of the US presidential elections, and aiming to contain any spillover effect to their zone of influence. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Türkiye’s Statistics Department reported in July that exports to Russia had shrunk by 28 percent from the previous year due to continuous pressure from US sanctions against Russia. The value of these exports reached only $4.16 billion in the first quarter of 2024, representing a decline from a peak of $5.80 billion the previous year. Imports surged in 2021 to a peak of $27.7 billion just before the outbreak of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and have since fallen, though they still remain far above 2020 levels. Since Russia’s invasion, the West has imposed harsh economic sanctions on the country to exert pressure on the country. Since then, however, Moscow has gone to enormous effort to circumvent those sanctions and maintain international trade. In this regard, Türkiye, a long-time Russian energy importer, has become an outlet for the Russian global economy. Turkish-Russian relations have fluctuated over the course of the war, as Türkiye tries to maintain a balanced position between the West and Russia, as well as with other regional players in the Middle East. READ MORE

Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

APRI Armenia, in cooperation with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom Yerevan Office, conducted a research project from July to September 2024 to assess the geopolitical future of the South Caucasus. The report analysed the primary external factors influencing regional geopolitics. It assessed possible future developments in the South Caucasus, focusing on Armenian foreign policy diversification, the prospects of Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations, the possible future of Georgian foreign policy, and Azerbaijan’s quest for a new foreign policy vision after the military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh and the forced displacement of its Armenian population in September 2023. READ MORE

Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia. READ MORE

Lola Rakhmanbaeva, Advisor to the Minister of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change on Information Policy- Press Secretary

Agriculture is one of the leading sectors of Uzbekistan’s economy.
As a country with unique natural resources and rich cultural heritage, Uzbekistan is increasingly aware of the need for active action in the fight against climate change. The country is taking a number of measures and initiatives aimed at achieving sustainable and green development, which plays a key role in global efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Israeli President Isaac Herzog concluded his historic first visit to Albania in September, shortly after his first-ever trip to Serbia, where both sides agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation amid Israel's extending military campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Although the recent intensive diplomatic dialogue between Israel and Balkan states is gaining more impetus, it is not a new phenomenon. In the last five years, much has been done to ensure Israel’s expanding diplomatic, security, and economic ties with the Balkans, particularly with Albania and Serbia. In light of the worsening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s large-scale military campaign in Gaza and Southern Lebanon, Tel Aviv sought to build new alliances and partnerships at a critical time. READ MORE

By Anahide PILIBOSSIAN, Vice President of Strategy and Development, APRI Armenia
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The events of the year 2022 led the European Union to build up its foreign and security policy efforts. Its unprecedented actions in the South Caucasus since then include: The EU and Azerbaijan signed a Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic Partnership in the Field of Energy in July 2022; in late 2022, a short-term EU civilian observer mission was established in Armenia (despite Armenia being a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO]), followed by a two-year mission, the EU Mission to Armenia, in February 2023; a new Partnership Agenda was announced in February 2024; Georgia received EU candidate status in December 2023; European Council President Charles Michel initiated the Brussels format to facilitate peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
While the EU’s intention of being a constructive neighbour and a foreign policy powerhouse in the region is commendable, regional events have stress-tested its strength, signalling the limits of its engagement. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On August 18–19, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a two-day visit to Azerbaijan. This marked the first state visit by a Russian president to the South Caucasian republic and only the second visit in the bilateral relationship since former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev’s trip to Moscow in 2002. Contrary to expectations from local observers, the visit did not yield any significant agreements or binding political and economic arrangements. A few announcements were made regarding future joint initiatives, including cooperation on food security, labour inspections, the establishment of a Russian-Azerbaijani university, and the joint production of oil tankers. An agreement was also reached to expand the partnership between Russia’s public joint-stock company (PJSC) Gazprom and the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) . Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller revealed that the two sides agreed to broaden their “multifaceted strategic partnership,” particularly concerning the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) project. He also mentioned the planned signing of a comprehensive scientific and technical cooperation program in September. While few details were disclosed, this marked their first public reference to the INSTC project, about which little is currently known. Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan demonstrates how Russia seeks to maintain its influence in the region, which could lead to neighbouring states, such as Iran and Armenia, feeling threatened. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Israeli President Isaac Herzog concluded his historic first visit to Albania in September, shortly after his first-ever trip to Serbia, where both sides agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation amid Israel's extending military campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Although the recent intensive diplomatic dialogue between Israel and Balkan states is gaining more impetus, it is not a new phenomenon. In the last five years, much has been done to ensure Israel’s expanding diplomatic, security, and economic ties with the Balkans, particularly with Albania and Serbia. In light of the worsening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s large-scale military campaign in Gaza and Southern Lebanon, Tel Aviv sought to build new alliances and partnerships at a critical time. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On June 11, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended a session of the BRICS group (a loose political-economic grouping originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in Moscow. While there, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu. During the face-to-face meeting with Putin, Fidan discussed bilateral economic and political relations, focusing on the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East caused by the war in Gaza. Putin vowed to “fully support” Turkish membership in BRICS and build stronger ties to facilitate further economic cooperation. Fidan’s visit to Russia came shortly after he visited China, where he reiterated Ankara’s willingness to join BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). These pronouncements have raised eyebrows in the West. US Ambassador to Türkiye Jeff Flake declared that Türkiye’s place is “in the West” and voiced his hope that Ankara would decide against joining the bloc. READ MORE

A.Kh. Saidov,
First Deputy Speaker of the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Director of the National Center of the Republic of Uzbekistan for Human Rights

The modern economic and democratic systems are designed to uphold the rights and freedoms of every individual. As is widely acknowledged, there is no universal model for democratic development; it must evolve based on each country's unique conditions and the needs of its people, avoiding rigid formulas. READ MORE

On the invitation of President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz arrived in Uzbekistan for an official visit on September 15.

In recent years, labor migration has emerged as a promising area of cooperation with Germany. At the same time, multifaceted and mutually beneficial relations in the field of healthcare are also developing consistently. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022 have dramatically disrupted the status quo in the South Caucasus, thrusting the region into the center of regional and global power rivalries. To varying degrees, Russia, the United States, the European Union, Turkey, Iran, Israel, France, India, China, and Pakistan are involved in the South Caucasus, creating a complex nexus of overlapping and diverging interests shaping the region’s geopolitical present and future. In recent years, the United States and the European Union have increased their presence in the South Caucasus. However, potential change in leadership in Washington and the shifting priorities in the forthcoming EU legislative cycle could significantly alter their engagement in the region. The Biden Administration has pursued active engagement in the South Caucasus. The United States has been one of the main mediators in Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations, organizing several meetings between Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Washington from 2022-2024 and the meeting between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev in February 2023 in Munich. READ MORE

Akilov Alimjon Rakhimovich,
Chief Researcher of Department of analyzing the effectiveness of constitutional construction and public administration of Institute of Legislation and Legal Policy under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, doctor of legal sciences, professor

The year 2016 for Uzbekistan was marked by the beginning of a fundamentally new in essence and content stage of state and social construction, in which the main strategic goal was proclaimed - the construction of a New Uzbekistan, based on the values that served the greatest flourishing of our statehood in the 9th-10th centuries (known in world history as First Eastern Renaissance) and XIV-XV centuries (Second Eastern Renaissance). As in previous periods, the basis and priorities of the Third Renaissance of our statehood are the development of science and modern technologies, which are intended to become drivers of dramatic development of the country’s economy, a radical improvement in the well-being of the people and the prosperity of the nation. READ MORE

Shuhrat Bafayev,
Chairman of the Committee for Democratic Institutions, Nongovernmental Organizations and Citizens’ Self-Government Bodies, Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Over the years of independent development Uzbekistan firmly guided by the principles of universal, equal and direct suffrage in secret voting, has progressively implemented international electoral standards into its electoral legislation. In 2017, in his first Address to the Parliament, the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev suggested that the current national electoral legislation does not ensure its harmonization and proposed to develop an Electoral Code that meets international norms and standards. Thus, the Electoral Code was adopted in 2019, incorporating more than 30 new democratic norms for organizing and conducting election processes. The approval of the Code marked the dawn of a new stage in the development of representative democracy in the country. READ MORE

Hey, great Turan, land of lions!
What has become of you? What are these days you endure now?
Oh, glorious cradle of Genghis, Timur, Oghuz, and Attila!
Where have the esteemed seats you once held gone?..
Abdurauf Fitrat

An American politician once said of the current life and fate of the Central Asian region: ‘They are neither post-Soviet nor post-communist countries now’.
Today no specialist knowledge is needed to understand this idea, which suggests that such labels are outdated in the research community. For example, ten to fifteen years ago the political behaviour of Central Asian societies – neighbours for thousands of years – was prone to national separatism, mutual dislike and latent hostility, but today they have undergone a remarkable transformation. Ideologues and ordinary Central Asians only a couple years ago endeavoured to prove their superiority, their antiquity and, for these very reasons, their greater belonging to the historical and cultural heritage of the region. Though they still might hurl some sharp insults at each other, now they have become united neighbours. READ MORE

The 43rd UNESCO General Conference is scheduled to take place in Samarkand in 2025.
This marks the first time Uzbekistan will host the biennial event. Historically, these conferences have primarily been hosted at UNESCO's headquarters in Paris since 1986. However, there have been eight exceptions, with meetings held in cities like Mexico City (1947), Beirut (1948), Florence (1950), Montevideo (1954), New Delhi (1956), Nairobi (1976), Belgrade (1980), and Sofia (1985). READ MORE

According to the IMF's assessment, the nominal GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2023 increased by 125.6 trillion sums ($10.7 billion) and amounted to 1,192.2 trillion sums ($101.6 billion).
CERR hosted a discussion among experts and academics regarding a study conducted by the Statistics Agency in collaboration with the IMF. The primary goal of this study was to assess the size of the unobserved economy in Uzbekistan and examine its impact on other macroeconomic indicators. READ MORE

Yuri Kutbitdinov,
chief Research Officer of the Center for Economic Research and Reforms under the Administration of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan

There are about a thousand manufacturing enterprises operating in the electrical engineering sector of Uzbekistan, most of them small, producing over two thousand types of products. Almost all enterprises in the industry are privately owned. The total number of people employed in the industry exceeds 35,000.
The 76 largest enterprises in the industry, which produce over 90% of all electrical engineering products, are members of the Association of Electrical Engineering Manufacturers (UzEltechSanoat). Of these, 18 enterprises manufacture electrical wires and cables, 27 enterprises manufacture household appliances, and 32 enterprises manufacture power transformers and other electrical products. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

A long road has been passed since Armenia and Azerbaijan were fighting a violent war that erupted in the wake of the deadlock in the peace negotiations for around three decades. As President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan rightfully said, the chance for peace was eventually brought about by the war in 2020 that put an end to the occupation of the Azerbaijani territories. Having liberated its occupied territories, Azerbaijan immediately initiated a peace treaty with Armenia based on the fundamental principles of international relations, including mutual recognition of each other’s territorial integrity and non-use of force. It is a telling fact that Azerbaijan put forward this initiative in March 2022, when the Armenian separatist regime still had some control over the parts of the Karabakh region where Russia’s peacekeeping mission was temporarily deployed. This clearly manifested Baku’s intention to peacefully reintegrate the Armenian population in the Karabakh region and diplomatically resolve the remaining disputes with Armenia. READ MORE

By Anahide PILIBOSSIAN, Vice President of Strategy and Development, APRI Armenia
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Despite economic challenges and existing agreements with the Eurasian Economic Union, Armenia seeks closer alignment with the EU.
The recent statement of the Armenian Foreign Minister in the margins of the Antalya Diplomatic Forum denotes Armenia’s desire to join the European Union. This aspiration raises important questions on Armenia’s current position and options, which this article seeks to shed light on. At the same time, today’s complicated geopolitical environment highlights the need for the EU to formulate a strategic vision for the region. Between Pax Europa and Pax Russica, Armenia first went with the latter. However, following Yerevan’s defeat in the second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the military takeover of the region by Azerbaijan, despite the presence of the Russian peacekeepers, Armenia has now opted for the former. It stated its desire, backed by the EU, to join the Black Sea energy cable project (from which it has been excluded, reportedly as a result of pressures from Azerbaijan) and promote a regional infrastructure and connectivity project called the Crossroad of Peace, embracing, as European leaders did after World War II, the peace-building effects of economic regional integration projects. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On May 13, 2024, Iran and India signed a historic deal under which New Delhi was granted the right to develop and operate the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman. India has been eying this port for the past two decades to export goods to Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asian countries and bypass the Chinese-developed ports of Gwadar and Karachi in Pakistan. Commenting on the deal after the signing ceremony in Tehran, India’s Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal said, “Chabahar Port’s significance transcends its role as a mere conduit between India and Iran; it serves as a vital trade artery connecting India with Afghanistan and Central Asian Countries.” Under this agreement, the Indian Ports Global Limited (IPGL) company will invest $120 million in the port with an additional $250 million in financing. Within this context, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told reporters in Mumbai that this deal will open the path for new, larger investments to be made in the port. READ MORE

Qudratilla Rafikov, Political scientist

In the speech of our President at a recent meeting with activists of Jizzakh region, one point caught the attention of most of the people. In it, the head of state said the following: "If God gives me health and life, the days will come when we will not have poverty and unemployment. I have devoted seven years of my life to this, created a system for this, created laws, opened the world. I came to this position, so that my people would live well, so that their dreams would come true, so that their children would live in prosperity and be happy, so that their grandchildren would be born healthy, so that medicine would work, schools would work, roads would be smooth...". READ MORE

This is the name of the next topic of the IV Samarkand Forum on Human Rights, a traditional international conference to be held in our country on June 13-14, 2024. It is planned to hold three plenary meetings offline and online within the framework of the forum.

The main goal of this year's Samarkand forum is to discuss issues related to the impact of climate change on human rights on a broad scale and on the basis of information analysis. In addition to gaining the necessary knowledge in this field, the participants of the international conference will have the opportunity to exchange experience and get acquainted with the best practices within the international community. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the global order continues to morph into a more complex architecture with an array of global and regional powers, the geopolitical future of the South Caucasus hangs in the balance. The tectonic changes in the region of the last four years – the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, the regional implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and forced displacement of Armenians, the EU candidate status for Georgia and Georgia’s quest for multi-vector foreign policy including the establishment of strategic partnership with China, the limbo in Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations, growing assertiveness of Azerbaijan and eventual move of Armenia towards closer cooperation with the EU and the US – all make the situation quite complex. READ MORE