Armenia’s U-turn back to ‘multi-vector foreign policy’[Over]
By Stepan Grigoryan, Head, Analytical Centre for Globalisation and Regional Cooperation, Armenia
The statement from the President of Armenia in September 2013 sounded like a bolt from the blue. He would not sign the Association Agreement with the European Union at the planned November Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, he said. Instead, Armenia would be joining the Russian led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This signified Armenia's departure from a multi-vector foreign policy. READ MORE
Russia Seeks Increased Control of Karabakh Resolution After Clashes Between Armenia and Azerbaijan*[Over]
Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor
After the recent clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, Russia’s leadership attempts to act more decisively in order to compromise the OSCE Minsk Group mediation efforts and to compel Armenia and Azerbaijan to accept Russia’s special role in the region. Russia’s proximity and strong influence over political elites and societies gives it an advantage over other Minsk Group co-chairs – the U.S. and France. However, the lack of security guarantees and economic perspectives may induce Armenia to start reviewing its attitudes concerning relations with different international actors and regional integration frameworks. READ MORE
This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.”
- November 25, 2014 20:55PM
After the Vilnius Summit: EU’s Eastern Partnership at Crossroads[Over]
George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum
The Eastern Partnership Summit, held on 28-29 November 2013 in Vilnius, was supposed to highlight the progress achieved over the last four years by the EU on political association and economic integration with its eastern neighbours (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine). Although it resulted in initialling the Association Agreements of Georgia and Moldova, and in signing a few minor agreements with other eastern partners, the summit was hijacked by the growing geopolitical competition between the EU and Russia. The primary victims of this competition have been Armenia and Ukraine, who, under strong pressure from Russia, put off their plans to sign Association and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreements with the EU. Other eastern partners have also felt the cold wind blowing across Europe within their economic, energy or security relations with Russia. READ MORE
Energy needs to give Bulgaria regional advantage[Over]
Valentin Stoyanov
EGF Affiliated Expert
Bulgaria fails to bring in the ‘big energy projects’
Over the past two decades Bulgaria has had no success with the so called ‘big energy projects’. The recent failure of NABUCCO was also a failure of the country’s efforts to diversify its gas supplies. The prospects for shale gas exploration and production look similarly grim after a moratorium was imposed by the Parliament in the beginning of 2012. READ MORE
A Russian-American-Syrian Triangle: The Syrian Chemical Weapons and American-Russian Relations[Over]
By Professor Andrei Kreutz,
EGF Adviser on Trans-Atlantic Security
During the last few weeks, the Syrian-American-Russian triangle directly or indirectly involving all Syria’s neighbors and a number of other nations, has become one of the major focuses of the political commentaries. The Russian initiative to help disarm Syria from its chemical weapons and Putin’s article which was published in the New York Times on September 11, 2013 apparently contributed decisively to prevent a new American military intervention in the Middle East, and brought Russia and its leader world-wide public attention, unknown since the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to the well-known American political analyst George Friedman, for the first time since the early 1990s, the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was able to sit with US State Secretary Kerry as an equal.
READ MORE
On the CSTO priorities in ensuring stability in Central Asia in terms of the withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan[Over] By Major-General, Doctor of Political Science, Hayk Kotanjian
Guest contributor to EGF
On October 10 2013, within the framework of the Kyrgyz Republic’s chairmanship in the CSTO, an academic-practical conference “Afghanistan 2014: Prospects of the situation in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, challenges and threats to security in Central Asia in the context of the withdrawal of main contingents of the International security assistance force" took place in Bishkek. Experts from 27 countries, as well as from the CSTO, NATO, the UN, the OSCE, the EU, the SCO, the ICRC and other international organizations attended the conference. READ MORE
Russian Problem: Russia's Place in the World - an Attempt at Historical and Geopolitical Analysis[Over]
by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security
A Long Western Debate and its Political Consequences
Although Russia has been part of the European system since the Westphalian Treaty of 1648, and after its victory in the Northern War with Sweden and the Nystad Treaty in 1721 started to be seen as of he major powers on the continent, both its internal nature and its role in international politics have often suffered Western doubts and uncertainties. READ MORE
- September 19, 2013 12:42PM
Russia’s Soft Power: Does Moscow have any chance to achieve it?[Over]
by Prof. Andrej Kreutz,
EGF adviser for Trans-Atlantic security
The issue of soft power and its use in international relations, the concept of attracting and coopting rather than use of direct or indirect coercion as a means of persuasion, was introduced to present use by American scholar Joseph S Nye Jr. in 2002. However, both its concept and its practical use were in fact not new. Both modern and past history provides numerous examples of its previous applications. READ MORE
Political Advisory Briefing: Egypt[Over]
By Claudia Nocente, Research Associate Global Security
February 2013
Key points:
- Egypt’s new administration between international praise and domestic unrest
- Morsi assumes pharaonic powers in an attempt to rid Egypt of Mubarak judges
- The felool take another shot in Egyptian politics
- The generals remain silent
- The Egyptian economy sinks. READ MORE
- February 12, 2013 14:21PM
Regional Integration as a Conflict Management Strategy in the Balkans and South Caucasus[Over]
By Anna Ohanyan,
EGF Affiliated Expert on South Caucasus region building
There is much enthusiasm among researchers and policymakers alike concerning the pacifying effects of trade and broader interdependence among states. The European Union is an often cited example of greater regional integration as a way to enhance peace and security among neighboring states. This comparative regional study draws from the cases of the Balkans and South Caucasus in order (1) to offer a descriptive account of patterns and processes of regionalism in politically divided conflict areas, and (2) to examine the extent to which such regional engagement can positively affect ongoing conflict management efforts in a given conflict region. The study advocates promoting regional structures as a new and potentially effective approach to peace-building and security enhancement, toward managing the many 'frozen conflicts' both in the Balkans as well as in the South Caucasus. READ MORE
North Africa after the Arab Spring[Over] Political Outlook for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt
Key points:
- Morocco’s monarchy seems to have survived the wind of change blowing on Arab countries last year and is
currently trying to hold on to its power by allowing reforms that partly reduce its absolute authority.
- The adoption of a new constitution and the victory of moderate and nationalist Islamic parties are signs that
mark Morocco’s gradual progress towards the demands of protesters who have taken the streets last year.
- However, civil society is not yet a primary actor in Moroccan politics and a widespread sense of communalism
is still missing.
- Tensions are still present in Morocco, due to the unresponsiveness of the central government regarding the
high levels of unemployment, structural corruption and deficiencies in welfare and health systems.
- Morocco has been praised by the international community for its counter-terrorism efforts, although major
security risks stem from the unresolved situation of West Sahara. High unemployment and persisting poverty,
however, continue to ensure fertile grounds for terrorist recruiters.
- New economic deals with the EU are expected to have a positive impact on the Moroccan economy, which is
of great interest for foreign direct investors.
READ MORE
Kofi Annan’s Syrian mission[Over] Mikhail Roshchin
Former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan appears to have made some diplomatic strides in efforts to mediate the violent uprising in Syria. And Annan’s mission also has gained Russian support, which is a crucial key to an international consensus on how best to resolve the Syrian conflict. We are joined on the line with Mikhail Roshchin, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. READ MORE
EGF Middle East Briefing - Egypt’s New Political Landscape: between Democratization and Old Legacies[Over] Claudia Nocente
EGF Researcher, Global Security
Egypt’s Islamic state on the horizon
Egypt is once again in the headlines. The results of the first, allegedly, free elections after the ousting of Hosni Mubarak as the Egyptian president are causing widespread concern, especially in the West, about the country’s process towards democratization. Many fear that the legacy of the former political establishment will haunt the country for many years to come. Egyptians have been denied any aspect of a wealthy social and political life and are now concerned about the fruits of their courageous actions and the new seeds last year’s events have implanted. What will Egypt look like a year from now? Will it end up embracing a hardline Islamist direction in the administration of political power? READ MORE
Letter from Istanbul, by EGF International Expert on Energy Security, Mehmet Oguctu[Over] by Mehmet Öğütçü
In his “Letter from Istanbul”, EGF International Expert on Energy Security, Mehmet Oguctu, argues that for the first time in several generations, there is a credible belief within Turkey that with the right policies, institutions and leadership, the country could well sit on the management board of the new world order by 2023, the centenary year of the founding of the modern Turkish state. Click here to read Mehmet Ogutcu’s letter
Turkey and Russia in the Black Sea Region: Dynamics of Cooperation and Conflict[Over] by Dr. Oktay Tanrisever
This policy brief examines the sources and limitations of Turkey’s relations with Russia since 2000 as well as the implications of Turkey’s lack of a clear vision for the Black Sea region for the future of its bilateral relations with Russia and the other international, regional and local actors in the Black Sea region. READ MORE
Muslim Brotherhood set to dominate Egypt's Parliament[Over]
In a recent interview for "The Voice of Russia", EGF Expert on Radical Islamic Movements, Mikhail Roshchin, explained the political dynamics emerging between Islamist and secular political parties in Egypt following recent parliamentary elections. His key message for all stakeholders engaged in the formation of new governance institutions in Egypt was that the Muslim Brotherhood, which now forms the largest political bloc in Egypt's new parliament, is more likely to broker political deals with secular parties rather than develop any sense of "ideological alliances" with other, more radical, Islamist factions. This will most likely remove the concerns over "new shades of green" emerging in the ensuing Egyptian political landscape and lead to further fragmentation of the political environment in advance of the country's looming presidential elections, which are currently scheduled for June 2012. Click HERE for the entire interview.
![Egypt_M[1].Roshchin.jpg Egypt_M[1].Roshchin.jpg](/upload/medialibrary/a04/egypt_mf1m.roshchin.jpg)
As Eastern Mediterranean’s Waters Heat Up, Turkey Should Lead An OSCE-Type Initiative In The Middle East[Over] by Mehmet
Ogutcu, Expert in global energy security matters
The Turkish leadership has committed itself to a tough position on Israel, Cyprus and Syria, and any backtracking or sign of weakness will seriously affect its credibility at home, with regional partners, the “Arab Street” and other major global powers, as well as high stakes involved in the Eastern Mediterranean. This represents a policy of principle, consistent with the values and goals the government pursues, but is also a risky one, which if not well managed may lead to some undesirable hot confrontation. The power comes with responsibility if it will be effectively harnessed.READ MORE
A chance to get serious about EU-Russia relations[Over] by Marat Terterov, EGF Director
Although 2011 is still far from over, it is already likely to go down in history as the year of the so called ‘Arab Spring’. 2011 will be remembered as the year when Arab populations threw down the gauntlet to their stagnating regimes, revising their traditional authoritarian power model and at long last commencing the transition to democracy. So too it is time to consider revising the European Union’s relationship with Russia, which has stagnated rather badly in recent years. Since the “big bang” enlargement of the EU in 2004, Moscow’s relations with Brussels have been increasingly characterised by tension (if not crisis) in their energy ties and failure to reach agreement in many areas of common strategic interest. In June of this year, the bi-annual EU-Russia Summit, held in Nizhny Novgorod, was dubbed as the ‘Vegetable Summit’ in the international press as Moscow and Brussels exchanged blows over the Russian ban on vegetable imports from the EU following the E.coli health scare in Germany. READ MORE
Political transition and the rise of Islamist politics in post-revolution Tunisia[Over]
By Naim Ameur,
Senior Manager, Prime Ministry of Tunisia
EGF Affiliated Expert on Maghreb politics
Tunisia embarks upon the process of transition to democracy
It is now a well established fact amongst both the general public as well as the specialist of Middle Eastern politics that Tunisia under the almost-quarter century long rule of former President, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, was managed by a highly restrictive and rather authoritarian political system. The system empowered key pro-regime political instruments such as the Constitutional Democratic Rally simultaneously to ensuring that opposition political parties remained largely powerless or even being loyal to the regime. READ MORE
Geopolitical Challenges 2010[Over]
At the end of December 1999, as the world prepared to usher in a new Millennium, in Europe and other parts of the planet, there was widespread concern that the so called “Millennium Bug” would strike, causing unforeseen disruption and havoc. Ten years on, in December of last year, for many in Europe, the Millennium Bug was just a shade in the memory as a far more ominous concern was pressing home – the prospect of another gas crisis. Although the fact that the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute of January 2009 – and its knock-on effect of leaving much of Europe without natural gas in the peak of winter – did not repeat itself during the record cold European temperatures of January this year, the very fact that European attention has become so focused on this theme demonstrates how geopolitical developments in the European hinterlands have come to impact the day-to-day livelihood of all Europeans.
Leading experts have shared their views on how such geopolitical challenges are likely to pan out during 2010 and beyond in an online session. Click here to go into the discussions or here to view forum summary
The EU-Russia Energy Partnership: Overcoming the Challenges[Over] The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.
Leading Russian and international energy professionals have shared their views on these energy policy challenges in an online session. Click here to go into the discussions or here to view forum summary
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