From the EGF Head of Research:
Russia and Ukraine are still hanging on to conflicting positions over the possible geopolitical endgames of the war in Ukraine. That makes reaching an armistice, let aside a full-fledged peace treaty, a Sisyphean task. Most experts agreed that a glimmer of realism in Ukraine's war strategy might open the door to ceasefire negotiations. However, any post-conflict security guarantees for Ukraine will be bound to rely on a Russia-West agreement over new European security arrangements. READ MORENews
- Ball-kicking protesters in Georgia decry new president Mikheil KavelashviliDecember 16, 2024
- Israel to close embassy in Ireland after Dublin backs Gaza genocide caseDecember 16, 2024
- Germany set for new elections after Chancellor Scholz loses confidence voteDecember 16, 2024
By Marat Terterov, PhD, Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF
Small countries often find themselves having to make difficult choices when it comes to navigating optimal pathways for their national development. Their relations with larger powers, as well as competing relations between larger powers with an interest in specific regions where small countries are located, will invariably impact on their development. One of the regions of the world where the impact of larger powers on the development of smaller countries is highly evident is the South Caucasus, a region of the former-Soviet Union predominantly associated with the countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. These three relatively small yet important countries in a region of strategic importance have come a long way since they became independent nation states following the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991.
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- Friday, 20 December 2024, 09:18
By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
Currently, the situation is intriguing. Both sides claim substantial progress in peace talks. At the December 5 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Ministerial Council, Armenia’s foreign minister announced that the preamble to the peace agreement text and 15 out of its 17 articles had been finalized. The Armenian prime minister later stated that 90% of the text was agreed. However, according to the Azerbaijani state-affiliated think tank AIR Center, at least three contentious issues remain unresolved: the presence of the European Union (EU) mission in Armenia, constitutional and legal changes in Armenia, and the withdrawal of Armenia’s legal cases against Azerbaijan in international courts. Baku has also proposed two other preconditions to any peace agreement. These include dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group and establishing a “Zangezur corridor” free of Armenian control.
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- Friday, 20 December 2024, 09:17
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On 10 December, the Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), a Baku-based political think tank closely affiliated with the Azerbaijani government, held a high-level international conference titled “The Main Obstacle to a Peace Agreement Between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” The conference identified the territorial claims in Armenia’s constitution against Azerbaijan as the primary obstacle to peace. Elnur Mammadov, Azerbaijan's Deputy Foreign Minister, contributed to the discussion as keynote speaker, clarifying the position of the Azerbaijani government on the issue. The event also featured James Sharp, former UK Ambassador to Azerbaijan, and Židas Daskalovski, adviser to the North Macedonian president, who shared insights from their countries’ experiences in amending constitutions to resolve interstate disputes. READ MORE
- Friday, 20 December 2024, 09:16
By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
Georgian parliamentary elections on 26 October 2024 have been highly contested with the opposition claiming that their win was stolen from them by the incumbent Georgian Dream party. As a result, the opposition initiated a legal procedure, demanded new elections and started peaceful protests against the election result, apparently to no avail. On 16 November, Georgia’s Central Election Commission validated the results of October’s highly contested elections, despite weeks of protests by the opposition and accusations of widespread fraud and Russian interference that were refuted by the Kremlin. This AIES Comment provides a perspective based on a combination of issues that highlight not just a divided but also a traumatised Georgian society that remembers the August 2008 war and is not ready to fight Russia again nor to deal with potential Russian interference.
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- Friday, 20 December 2024, 09:16
By Vusal GULIYEV, Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group and Policy Expert at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center
Although Turkish - Chinese diplomatic relations periodically capture the global agenda due to their fragile aspects, examining the dynamics of economic relations in recent years reveals a different picture. While official Turkish - Chinese relations have been ongoing since 1971, the intensification of mutual economic cooperation dates back to the 2010s. Particularly, with the implementation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which encompasses 140 countries including Türkiye, the number of joint economic collaborations within the framework of international projects between the two countries has increased. Thanks to joint commercial projects carried out in recent years, China has become one of Türkiye’s largest investors and creditors. Chinese multinational companies continue to rapidly invest across various sectors of the Turkish economy. This article systematically analyses the commercial interests and investments of China, which has become one of the world’s largest investors and creditors, in Türkiye, considering the political-economic factors shaping Turkish - Chinese economic relations. READ MORE
- Friday, 20 December 2024, 09:15
By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
When on November 24, a U.S.-mediated ceasefire was brokered between Lebanon and Israel, many did not imagine that within days the Turkish-backed Syrian rebel factions would storm Aleppo and capture the city in less than 36 hours. There are a lot of questions about the preparation and readiness of the Syrian army. However, it was clear that the current status quo under President Bashar al-Assad would not be preserved for a long time, as the country was fragmented and in need of conflict resolution, not conflict management. Since the same regional actors involved in the South Caucasus — Iran, Russia, and Turkey — are also in Syria supporting opposite sides, there are concerns that the fire may expand beyond the Middle East. On November 29, the former al-Qaida associated group currently branded as ‘Hai’at Tahrir al-Sham’ (HTS) along with armed factions from the Turkish-backed ‘Syrian National Army’ (some of whom fought as mercenaries against Armenians in the 2020 war in Artsakh) and some mercenaries from Central Asia and the Caucasus entered the second largest city of Syria.
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- Friday, 20 December 2024, 09:15
Ozodbek Nazarbekov, Minister of Culture of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Culture and art are the foundation of civilization, national identity, and spiritual perfection, as well as important indicators of a country’s progress. The development of these spheres, reflecting the spiritual growth of the people, their past, present, and future, requires an approach that meets the demands of the times. This is why the reforms aimed at the development of culture and art in Uzbekistan carry profound meaning and are entering a new phase.
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- Friday, 20 December 2024, 09:03
- The Daily BriefDecember 13, 2024
- Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
- Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017