From the EGF Head of Research:
As the war in Ukraine has escalated since February 2022 it has also become entangled with the global confrontation between the West and the China- Russia- Iran- North Korea revisionist quartet. It is therefore the responsibility of Ukraine’s regional and global allies and friends to help Kyiv devise a new war strategy that should stabilize the front line, mitigate the Russian attrition war, and start peace negotiations on realistic terms. READ MORENews
- Georgia’s governing party leads key election race: Early resultsOctober 28, 2024
- Georgia ruling party wins election, says poll body amid opposition protestsOctober 28, 2024
- Bulgaria centre right leads in snap vote, fails to win majority: Exit pollsOctober 28, 2024
By Marat Terterov, PhD, Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF
Small countries often find themselves having to make difficult choices when it comes to navigating optimal pathways for their national development. Their relations with larger powers, as well as competing relations between larger powers with an interest in specific regions where small countries are located, will invariably impact on their development. One of the regions of the world where the impact of larger powers on the development of smaller countries is highly evident is the South Caucasus, a region of the former-Soviet Union predominantly associated with the countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. These three relatively small yet important countries in a region of strategic importance have come a long way since they became independent nation states following the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991.
READ MORE
- Friday, 25 October 2024, 14:10
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia.
READ MORE
- Friday, 25 October 2024, 14:09
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On August 20, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan declared the country had officially applied for membership in BRICS. BRICS is an intergovernmental cooperation platform that originally comprised Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and now includes five new members that include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. This announcement followed Azerbaijan’s initial declaration of its desire to join the bloc, revealed in the China-Azerbaijan joint declaration on establishing a strategic partnership. This was adopted by the two countries’ leaders on July 3 during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. The declaration highlights Azerbaijan’s intent to join BRICS and emphasizes China’s support for this initiative. Azerbaijan’s bid has also been backed by Russia, with the Kremlin expressing support for Baku’s application on several occasions over the past two months.
READ MORE
- Friday, 25 October 2024, 14:09
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Türkiye’s Statistics Department reported in July that exports to Russia had shrunk by 28 percent from the previous year due to continuous pressure from US sanctions against Russia. The value of these exports reached only $4.16 billion in the first quarter of 2024, representing a decline from a peak of $5.80 billion the previous year. Imports surged in 2021 to a peak of $27.7 billion just before the outbreak of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and have since fallen, though they still remain far above 2020 levels. Since Russia’s invasion, the West has imposed harsh economic sanctions on the country to exert pressure on the country. Since then, however, Moscow has gone to enormous effort to circumvent those sanctions and maintain international trade. In this regard, Türkiye, a long-time Russian energy importer, has become an outlet for the Russian global economy. Turkish-Russian relations have fluctuated over the course of the war, as Türkiye tries to maintain a balanced position between the West and Russia, as well as with other regional players in the Middle East. READ MORE
- Friday, 25 October 2024, 14:08
By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
Over the past few weeks, security events have dramatically accelerated Israel’s aggression on Lebanon. On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah, a paramilitary political party in Lebanon (also known as the Islamic Resistance) backed by Iran, opened a front against Israel to assist Hamas in its conflict with Israel following its “al-Aqsa Storm” operation. The Lebanese front remained “managed” as Israel and Hezbollah engaged in limited clashes. This equation changed starting on September 17, 2024. Along with its fight against Hamas and the destruction of Gaza, Israel shifted its focus to Hezbollah and started bombing Lebanon, destroying the party’s infrastructure in southern Beirut, South Lebanon and Beqaa near the border with Syria.
READ MORE
- Friday, 25 October 2024, 14:08
By Tabib Huseynov, independent policy analyst and researcher
In a move that has left many in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and beyond scratching their heads, the Armenian Constitutional Court adopted on September 26 a landmark ruling No. 1749, greenlighting the border delimitation process with Azerbaijan. The text of the ruling (henceforth referred to as Ruling 1749 or simply, the ruling) was published three days later over the weekend, which invites questions about whether this delay was intended to minimize scrutiny as the initial news cycle on the decision faded and public attention shifted elsewhere. Some Armenian commentators hailed the ruling, claiming it invalidates Baku's criticism that Armenia's Constitution harbours territorial claims against Azerbaijan. On October 4, Armenian foreign ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan echoed this argument, claiming the ruling proves Armenia’s Constitution contains no territorial claims. READ MORE
- Friday, 25 October 2024, 14:08
Lola Rakhmanbaeva,
Advisor to the Minister of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change on Information Policy- Press Secretary
Agriculture is one of the leading sectors of Uzbekistan’s economy.
As a country with unique natural resources and rich cultural heritage, Uzbekistan is increasingly aware of the need for active action in the fight against climate change. The country is taking a number of measures and initiatives aimed at achieving sustainable and green development, which plays a key role in global efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. READ MORE
- Friday, 25 October 2024, 14:07
- The Daily BriefOctober 21, 2024
- Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
- Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017