Dr. Marat Terterov, Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, discusses the current situation of the European Union’s relations with the South Caucasian countries - Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. He also explains his vision for regional cooperation in the South Caucasus, and the steps needed to discourage conflict and foster stability. WATCH MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On May 4, an Azerbaijani delegation of state officials arrived in Damascus at the invitation of the interim Syrian government. Vice Prime Minister Samir Sharifov, who led the delegation, was received by Syria’s transitional President, Ahmad Al-Sharaa. The delegations discussed opportunities for collaboration in key areas, including the economy, energy, culture, and education. The visit followed a meeting between Al-Sharaa and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev in Turkey at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, where the two leaders explored the potential for closer ties. The growing diplomatic communication between Azerbaijan and Syria in the post-Assad period reflects Baku’s recalibrating foreign policy and pragmatic engagement with the Middle East as well as opportunities presented by the collapse of a Damascus government that had tilted toward Baku’s rival, Armenia. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia

Russia is highly likely to remain a driver of geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus for the foreseeable future. The potential ceasefire in Ukraine may shift Moscow’s resources back to the South Caucasus and thus make Russia’s position stronger. The relations built since 1991 has given Russia leverage with Armenia, including the presence of Russian military base and border troops in Armenia, and Armenia’s membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), while Armenia was providing an opportunity for Russia to project power in the South Caucasus and foment its position as the strongest external player in the region. Over the past four years, relations between Armenia and Russia have changed significantly, transforming Moscow from a strategic ally into a problematic partner. Both sides now harbor a lengthy list of grievances against the other. With the potential new chapter in Ukraine also comes an opportunity for both countries to reset their bilateral relationship and find a new modus operandi. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On May 7, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov announced that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev would not travel to Moscow to attend the May 9 Victory Day parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in the Great Patriotic War. According to Ushakov, Azerbaijan claimed that Aliyev “ha[d] to participate in internal events dedicated to [former president and Aliyev’s father] Heydar Aliyev.” Earlier that day, Russian media reported—citing Ushakov—that Aliyev was among the world leaders expected to attend the Moscow Victory Day celebrations. In the end, Aliyev was the only leader from the post-Soviet region with otherwise cordial diplomatic relations with Russia who did not participate in the May 9 celebrations. The leaders of all five Central Asian republics, as well as those of Armenia and Belarus, were present. Aliyev’s absence raised several questions about the state of Russia-Azerbaijan relations in the wake of the December 25, 2024, airplane crash. READ MORE

By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Mathias Corvinus Collegium Foundation in Budapest and Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in Berlin

The United States is heading toward a strategic collision with Iran, with implications that extend far beyond Washington. Despite resumed nuclear talks in Muscat, diplomacy is unlikely to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Not because of tactical missteps, but because the world — and Iran’s position within it — has changed. While negotiations continue, Washington has not eased its pressure. The United States has imposed new separate sanctions packages on Iran in April alone, targeting sectors from missile development to financial networks. The cost of drawn-out diplomacy is mounting, and Tehran faces increasing pressure to shift its strategy or absorb deeper economic pain.The current impasse is no longer about centrifuges or sanctions. It reflects a hardening geopolitical triangle that now links Iran with Russia and China, a partnership that is reshaping power dynamics across the Middle East and influencing global strategic stability. READ MORE

By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group

Azerbaijan is embarking on ambitious reforms and collaborations within its transport and logistics sector, driven by the opportunities presented by the Middle Corridor trade route. Initiatives such as the integration of Azerbaijan’s railway and port systems and the establishment of international partnerships signal a push toward greater efficiency and connectivity in trade infrastructure. On April 25, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, during a press conference with Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, stated that work is underway to increase the cargo capacity at the Port of Baku from 15 million tons to 25 million tons. Efforts such this underscore Baku’s vision of transforming the country into a critical node of global trade routes, reinforcing regional connectivity and contributing to economic diversification READ MORE

Interview with Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

In a wide-ranging conversation with Radio Free Europe Georgian service, Kogan offers a stark assessment of the much-hyped Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal. Though labelled “historic”, the agreement remains stalled. Baku, holding the stronger hand, is in no rush to finalize it—using the drawn-out process to pressure Armenia into further concessions, including the Zangezur corridor and constitutional changes on Nagorno-Karabakh. Meanwhile, Armenia, increasingly isolated and eager to sign, lacks meaningful alternatives or strong international backing. Without a neutral mediator and amid shifting regional alliances—especially Georgia’s pivot toward Moscow—the deal looks more like a tool of leverage than a step toward lasting peace. READ MORE