By Marat Terterov, PhD, Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF

Small countries often find themselves having to make difficult choices when it comes to navigating optimal pathways for their national development. Their relations with larger powers, as well as competing relations between larger powers with an interest in specific regions where small countries are located, will invariably impact on their development. One of the regions of the world where the impact of larger powers on the development of smaller countries is highly evident is the South Caucasus, a region of the former-Soviet Union predominantly associated with the countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. These three relatively small yet important countries in a region of strategic importance have come a long way since they became independent nation states following the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991. READ MORE

By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Ukraine is positioning itself as a key transit hub for Azerbaijani gas to Europe, a move that could significantly alter the region’s energy landscape. If successful, this would carve out a new role for Kyiv after Russian supplies stopped flowing to the rest of Europe via Ukraine on January 1, pushing up European wholesale energy prices. The expiration of the Russian gas deal at the beginning of 2025 and Kyiv's decision not to prolong the agreement triggered heated debates within the European Union as countries like Hungary and Slovakia harshly criticised Ukraine, accusing it of igniting the energy crisis with no drastic impact on Russia. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, ISPI Senior Associate Research Fellow


Armenia signed an agreement to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in May 2014 after halting the process of signing an Association Agreement with the European Union. Many observers noted that Armenia’s then-President Serzh Sargsyan reversed his foreign policy following a meeting with Russia’s president in September 2013 in a U-turn. This decision paved the way for Armenia’s EAEU membership and halted the negotiation of an agreement that would have included, inter alia, a free-trade agreement with the EU. The reversal was likely made under Russian pressure and was influenced by geopolitical and geo-economic considerations. Armenia, supporting the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in its conflict with Azerbaijan, saw its alliance with Russia as a crucial deterrent against hostile neighbours, including Azerbaijan, which had significantly increased its military spending. READ MORE

By Vusal GULIYEV, Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group and Policy Expert at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center

Azerbaijan is transforming into a key regional hub through strategic investments in transportation infrastructure, particularly along the Middle Corridor. Expanding rail, maritime, and digital connectivity, the country enhances trade between Europe and Asia. Projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and Port of Baku solidify Azerbaijan’s role in global logistics and economic diversification.
Azerbaijan’s focus on improving transportation infrastructure has been central to its role in enhancing regional connectivity, especially in the broader context of linking Europe and Asia. As part of the effort to revive the historic Silk Road, significant progress has been made in expanding trade and transportation networks—particularly rail and maritime routes that facilitate intercontinental trade along the east-west corridor. This expansion is a critical aspect of Baku’s long-term socio-economic growth strategy. Azerbaijan has consistently prioritized unlocking the trade potential of the Trans-Caspian routes, investing in advanced logistics and transportation infrastructure, including rail lines, highways, and seaports, supported by both domestic and international development initiatives. READ MORE

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On January 14, 2025, as U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration breathed its last days, Armenia and the United States signed a Strategic Partnership Charter in Washington, D.C. The document was signed by Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. This article will highlight the key points of the agreement and present a reflection and analysis on how Armenia can benefit from the Charter to pursue its foreign policy goals, amid the regional reaction and the Azerbaijani president’s recent threats against Yerevan.
As per the agreement, both countries affirm the importance of their relationship as “friends and strategic partners.” They emphasize that this cooperation is based on “shared values and common interests,” which include democracy, economic freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. They also aim to collaborate on innovation and technological advances, bolster energy security and strengthen their relationship in the fields of education, science, culture, rule of law, defence, and security. READ MORE

By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher

This article explores Azerbaijan’s evolving and increasingly more assertive foreign policy doctrine, which began to take shape following its victory over Armenia in the 2020 Second Karabakh War and was further solidified after its 2023 blitzkrieg operation, which dismantled institutionalized separatism within its territory. Conceptualized through the framework of strategic autonomy, this new doctrine is firmly anchored in realist and neorealist schools of thought, emphasizing pragmatic, interest-driven relationships with major regional and global powers while avoiding geopolitical entanglements. The paper argues that Azerbaijan’s quest for strategic autonomy is both a response to external pressures and a means to assert agency within the broader Eurasian security landscape. It also describes Azerbaijan as a “geopolitical interconnector”, capable of punching above its weight in contributing to international security, owing to its strategic location and diplomatic outreach across opposing blocs. The paper enriches scholarly discussions on strategic autonomy with a practical case study, offering a novel analytical framework to understand Azerbaijan’s foreign policy and its potential impact on regional and global geopolitics. READ MORE

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On December 25, Azerbaijan ended 2024 in nationwide sorrow and resentment following the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 near Aktau, Kazakhstan. The Embraer 190 aircraft, carrying 67 passengers from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, attempted an emergency landing but tragically crashed. Among those aboard were Azerbaijani, Russian, Kazakh, and Kyrgyz nationals. While 29 people survived, 38, including two pilots and a flight attendant, lost their lives. Initial reports attributed the crash to a collision with a flock of birds, but this theory was soon refuted when parts of the aircraft were found to bear shrapnel marks. The following day, Azerbaijani officials revealed that the crash was caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile, which exploded near the aircraft mid-flight, with shrapnel injuring passengers and crew. This incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russia relations, as Moscow refused to accept responsibility for the tragedy. READ MORE