From the EGF Head of Research:
As the war in Ukraine has escalated since February 2022 it has also become entangled with the global confrontation between the West and the China- Russia- Iran- North Korea revisionist quartet. It is therefore the responsibility of Ukraine’s regional and global allies and friends to help Kyiv devise a new war strategy that should stabilize the front line, mitigate the Russian attrition war, and start peace negotiations on realistic terms. READ MORENews
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By Marat Terterov, PhD, Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF
Small countries often find themselves having to make difficult choices when it comes to navigating optimal pathways for their national development. Their relations with larger powers, as well as competing relations between larger powers with an interest in specific regions where small countries are located, will invariably impact on their development. One of the regions of the world where the impact of larger powers on the development of smaller countries is highly evident is the South Caucasus, a region of the former-Soviet Union predominantly associated with the countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. These three relatively small yet important countries in a region of strategic importance have come a long way since they became independent nation states following the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991.
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- Wednesday, 16 October 2024, 22:20
By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”
Over the past few weeks, security events have dramatically accelerated Israel’s aggression on Lebanon. On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah, a paramilitary political party in Lebanon (also known as the Islamic Resistance) backed by Iran, opened a front against Israel to assist Hamas in its conflict with Israel following its “al-Aqsa Storm” operation. The Lebanese front remained “managed” as Israel and Hezbollah engaged in limited clashes. This equation changed starting on September 17, 2024. Along with its fight against Hamas and the destruction of Gaza, Israel shifted its focus to Hezbollah and started bombing Lebanon, destroying the party’s infrastructure in southern Beirut, South Lebanon and Beqaa near the border with Syria.
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- Wednesday, 16 October 2024, 22:19
By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst
Israeli President Isaac Herzog concluded his historic first visit to Albania in September, shortly after his first-ever trip to Serbia, where both sides agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation amid Israel's extending military campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Although the recent intensive diplomatic dialogue between Israel and Balkan states is gaining more impetus, it is not a new phenomenon. In the last five years, much has been done to ensure Israel’s expanding diplomatic, security, and economic ties with the Balkans, particularly with Albania and Serbia. In light of the worsening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s large-scale military campaign in Gaza and Southern Lebanon, Tel Aviv sought to build new alliances and partnerships at a critical time. READ MORE
- Wednesday, 16 October 2024, 22:18
By Tabib Huseynov, independent policy analyst and researcher
In a move that has left many in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and beyond scratching their heads, the Armenian Constitutional Court adopted on September 26 a landmark ruling No. 1749, greenlighting the border delimitation process with Azerbaijan. The text of the ruling (henceforth referred to as Ruling 1749 or simply, the ruling) was published three days later over the weekend, which invites questions about whether this delay was intended to minimize scrutiny as the initial news cycle on the decision faded and public attention shifted elsewhere. Some Armenian commentators hailed the ruling, claiming it invalidates Baku's criticism that Armenia's Constitution harbours territorial claims against Azerbaijan. On October 4, Armenian foreign ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan echoed this argument, claiming the ruling proves Armenia’s Constitution contains no territorial claims. READ MORE
- Wednesday, 16 October 2024, 22:03
By Anahide PILIBOSSIAN, Vice President of Strategy and Development, APRI Armenia
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies
The events of the year 2022 led the European Union to build up its foreign and security policy efforts. Its unprecedented actions in the South Caucasus since then include: The EU and Azerbaijan signed a Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic Partnership in the Field of Energy in July 2022; in late 2022, a short-term EU civilian observer mission was established in Armenia (despite Armenia being a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO]), followed by a two-year mission, the EU Mission to Armenia, in February 2023; a new Partnership Agenda was announced in February 2024; Georgia received EU candidate status in December 2023; European Council President Charles Michel initiated the Brussels format to facilitate peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
While the EU’s intention of being a constructive neighbour and a foreign policy powerhouse in the region is commendable, regional events have stress-tested its strength, signalling the limits of its engagement.
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- Wednesday, 16 October 2024, 22:03
By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku
On August 18–19, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a two-day visit to Azerbaijan. This marked the first state visit by a Russian president to the South Caucasian republic and only the second visit in the bilateral relationship since former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev’s trip to Moscow in 2002. Contrary to expectations from local observers, the visit did not yield any significant agreements or binding political and economic arrangements. A few announcements were made regarding future joint initiatives, including cooperation on food security, labour inspections, the establishment of a Russian-Azerbaijani university, and the joint production of oil tankers. An agreement was also reached to expand the partnership between Russia’s public joint-stock company (PJSC) Gazprom and the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) . Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller revealed that the two sides agreed to broaden their “multifaceted strategic partnership,” particularly concerning the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) project. He also mentioned the planned signing of a comprehensive scientific and technical cooperation program in September. While few details were disclosed, this marked their first public reference to the INSTC project, about which little is currently known. Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan demonstrates how Russia seeks to maintain its influence in the region, which could lead to neighbouring states, such as Iran and Armenia, feeling threatened.
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- Wednesday, 16 October 2024, 22:03
Agriculture is one of the leading sectors of Uzbekistan’s economy.
This sector accounts for more than 24% of the republic's gross domestic product and employs about a quarter of the total workforce. Thus, sustainable development and modernization of agriculture is a key priority of state policy and macroeconomic development strategy of the republic to ensure overall economic growth and improve the population’s welfare. READ MORE
- Wednesday, 16 October 2024, 22:01
- The Daily BriefOctober 21, 2024
- Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
- Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017