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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Monday 13 October 2025

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From the EGF Head of Research:

The European Union (EU) has rediscovered the Black Sea and has developed strategic thinking on how to deal with the Russian threat, the Turkish rise, and how to pursue its own regional interests. However, its ability to ripe concrete benefits from the “EU’s Strategic Approach to the Black Sea region” is uncertain unless it succeeded to resolve the current crisis in European affairs and to effectively sustain regional peace and security. READ MORE
100 issues+ December 2022 November 2022 October 2022 September 2022 August 2022 July 2022 June 2022
September — November 2019 mid May – July 2019
Spring 2025 Winter 2025 July-November 2024 March-June 2024 November-February 2024 July-October 2023 March-June 2023 Previous Issues
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News

  • Will Europe use Russian assets to fund Ukraine? Could Moscow hit back?October 3, 2025
  • Putin warns of harsh response to ‘Europe’s militarisation’October 3, 2025
  • France detains Russian ‘shadow’ tanker to disrupt war in UkraineOctober 3, 2025
More
South Caucasus
The Changing Dynamics of the Wider-Black Sea in Regional Security and External Relations
EGF Arab Spring
EGF Head of Research Recommended Reading
EGF Head of Research Recommended Reading
Markets Rising Tensions in Iran: Market Volatility, Strategic Risks, and the Limits of Regime Change



In an exclusive interview with EU Today, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, outlined the key economic and geopolitical implications of the current crisis and warned against further escalation or any attempt at externally imposed regime change in Iran. According to Dr Terterov, oil prices spiked by approximately 7 percent in the immediate aftermath of the strikes—an early signal of market anxiety. Although prices have since moderated, he emphasised that this stabilisation is largely based on “bets on a ceasefire” and a broad assumption that the situation would not worsen. “Most experts believe Iran lacks the military muscle to sustain an open conflict with the United States or Israel,” he said. While Tehran has voiced outrage over the strikes—carried out during ongoing nuclear negotiations—Dr Terterov cautioned against underestimating the strategic calculus behind Iran’s actions. READ MORE

  • Tuesday, 7 October 2025, 19:44
External Relations Trump’s Bagram Claims and the Taliban’s Foreign Policy Choices

Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

On September 21, the Taliban rebuffed U.S. President Donald Trump for the second time in the last nine months. A day earlier, Trump had demanded control of Bagram air base in Afghanistan and had even threatened “bad things” if his demand wasn’t entertained. The Taliban spokesperson was categorical in his September 23 reply: “We will never agree to bargain away or hand over any part of our country.” On being summoned for an emergency meeting by Emir Hibatullah Akhunzada following Trump’s comments, Taliban defence and foreign ministers and intelligence chiefs rushed to Kandahar. There were separate meetings as well among the Taliban leadership. The recent rejection of Trump’s vague threats didn’t occur in a vacuum. READ MORE

  • Tuesday, 7 October 2025, 19:43
Markets Economic Implications of the Washington Declaration for Azerbaijan and Armenia

Aytaс Mahammadova By Aytaс Mahammadova, Energy Security Expert affiliated with the Caspian-Alpine Society

The Washington Declaration of August 2025 marks a turning point for the South Caucasus, unlocking unprecedented economic opportunities through peace, open borders, and the TRIPP corridor. Enhanced trade, investment, and energy cooperation promise regional integration, job creation, and sustainable growth, positioning Azerbaijan, and Armenia as key hubs in global value chains.
The historic Washington Declaration of August 8, 2025, represents a transformative moment not only for regional stability but for the economic prosperity of the entire South Caucasus region. The establishment of sustainable peace between these two nations unlocks unprecedented economic opportunities that extend far beyond the immediate benefits of ending hostilities, creating a foundation for long-term economic integration, infrastructure development, and regional cooperation that could serve as a model for conflict resolution worldwide. The economic dividends of peace are multifaceted, encompassing direct benefits from increased foreign investment, enhanced trade relationships, and the opening of previously closed borders, as well as indirect benefits from improved regional stability, and the ability to redirect resources from defence to productive economic activities. READ MORE

  • Tuesday, 7 October 2025, 19:42
Security The Acceleration of Putin’s Shadow War

Fuad Shahbazov By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Air incursions, military drills, and escalating hybrid warfare hint at a new and alarming level of Russian aggression. Is it just for show?
Russia and Belarus held joint military drills in September. But the biennial exercises were overshadowed by something that may be more ominous — an outbreak of drone and aerial incursions across Poland and the Nordic-Baltic states that illustrate NATO members’ vulnerability to disabling attacks on fragile systems like civil airports. Zapad-2025 is an established Kremlin method of baring its military teeth to its near-neighbours. The official reason for September’s large-scale exercises is to test the ability of the two countries to repel an enemy attack, retake lost territory and secure the borders of what they refer to as their “Union State”. They have often triggered alarm across the NATO alliance, particularly in the Baltic states and Poland, which have a deep historical and recent sensitivity to Kremlin aggression. READ MORE

  • Tuesday, 7 October 2025, 19:41
External Relations Armenia–China Strategic Partnership: Another Step in Foreign-Policy Diversification

Benyamin POGHOSYAN By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia

Armenia and China established a strategic partnership on August 31, 2025, in the margins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit held in Tianjin, China. The establishment of a strategic partnership with China can be seen as another step within the Armenian Government’s “balanced and balancing foreign policy” or “pivot to the world,” as first articulated by the Armenia’s Secretary of the Security Council during the 2024 Applied Policy Research Institute (APRI) Armenia Forum. As part of its “pivot to the world,” a few weeks prior to the SCO summit Armenia applied for full membership of the organization (currently Yerevan is a dialogue partner) and in spring 2025, the Armenian Parliament adopted a law on launching the process of accession of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union. READ MORE

  • Wednesday, 1 October 2025, 04:42
External Relations Peace in South Caucasus Closer After the Washington Summit, but Uncertainties Loom

Vasif HUSEYNOV By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On August 28, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that his country will start substantive talks next month with the United States and Azerbaijan on the practical arrangements for opening a transit route to Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave via the territory of Armenia. The agreement on this route (hereafter the Zangezur Corridor) was reached on August 8 during a trilateral meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan, mediated by U.S. President Donald Trump. According to the trilateral agreement, the route (renamed as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP) would serve as an “unimpeded” passage and be managed through what Trump called an “exclusive partnership” between Armenia and the United States for 99 years. According to Pashinyan, this implies the deployment of an “Armenia-United States company” which “will carry out the business management”. He underscored that the company “will not control that road but manage it,” refuting the domestic criticism about the loss of Armenian sovereignty over the route and the sublease of the territory to the United States. READ MORE

  • Friday, 12 September 2025, 12:51
Energy Advancing Azerbaijan-China Energy Cooperation within the SCO Framework

Vusal GULIYEV By Vusal GULIYEV, Leading Advisor at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev delivered a speech at the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus” (SCO+) meeting in Tianjin, China (September 2025) underlining Azerbaijan’s role in regional connectivity and energy cooperation. Energy is a cornerstone of Azerbaijan’s economy and a major area of cooperation with both China and other SCO countries. As a hydrocarbon-rich nation on the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan brings significant oil and gas assets to any partnership. It has leveraged its dialogue partner status in the SCO to advance energy collaboration aiming to diversify its export markets, attract investment in energy infrastructure, and even develop new energy technologies. Building on this foundation, Azerbaijan has gradually shifted its energy focus from its traditional European partners toward emerging Asian markets. Traditionally, Azerbaijan’s oil and gas have flowed Westward to Europe (through pipelines like BTC and TANAP), but now Asian markets are increasingly in focus. China has begun importing Azerbaijani crude oil in recent years. Although volumes are modest relative to Azerbaijan’s exports to Europe, they signal a growing Far Eastern demand. READ MORE

  • Friday, 12 September 2025, 12:50
External Relations The Washington Summit and Its Implications for South Caucasus Geopolitics

Sultan ZAHIDOV By Sultan ZAHIDOV, Leading Advisor at the AIR Center, Baku and Senior Lecturer at the Baku State University

For decades, establishing lasting peace in the South Caucasus has been one of the most persistent challenges for regional states and international actors alike. Straddling vital geostrategic lines of Eurasia, this region has long been a geopolitical “shatter belt” — a zone where the interests of great and regional powers collide. External actors have repeatedly sought to exploit these divisions, employing “divide et impera” strategies that, rather than resolving disputes, have often exacerbated tensions. Not without reason, renowned scholar Thomas de Waal describes the South Caucasus as “the lands in between,” emphasizing its role as a crossroads of competing powers. According to Barry Buzan’s ‘overlay’ concept, the weakening and decline of great powers paves the way for the resurgence of past conflicts that had previously been de-escalated under the authority of the dominant power. Indeed, the collapse of the Soviet Union reopened the Pandora’s box of frozen conflicts, none more consequential than the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict. READ MORE

  • Monday, 8 September 2025, 04:29
All discussions

EGF Affiliated Expert Yeghia TASHJIAN has recently published a chapter on “The International North-South Transport Corridor and the Belt and Road Initiative in the South Caucasus” of the “Routledge Handbook of China's Belt and Road Initiative in Eurasia”. He examined how multipolarity triggered by building connectivity ‘corridors’ has impacted the behaviour of the local actors in the South Caucasus as they jockeyed for positions in the regional system. Taking into consideration the Russo-Ukrainian and Nagorno-Karabakh wars and the geopolitical and geo-economic shifts, the chapter focused on the impact of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the South Caucasus and wider Eurasian connectivity in an evolving multipolar world order. READ MORE (under paywall)

EGF Affiliated Expert, Dr. Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA was interviewed by “Al Jazeera” on India’s shifting relations with China and the U.S. in the context of Prime-Minister Narendra Modi’s participation to the latest SCO summit in Tianjin (China). WATCH HERE

EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN appeared in a new episode of the GROONG Podcast where he discussed: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, the TRIPP corridor, Russia- Azerbaijan rift, and Armenia’s ties with the UK. WATCH HERE

EGF Affiliated Expert Alan WHITEHORN published recently a short comment on “Trump and the South Caucasus Accord” on keghart.org. He concluded that: “If Armenia survives over the next decade with no further loss of military personnel or territory due to incremental border encroachments or war, the tripartite agreement may be considered a minor win also for Yerevan”. READ MORE

 

Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, here for the policy recommendations, and here for the proceedings of the workshop

Between 10-13 April 2025, Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 29th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Emerging Technologies in Conflict Prevention: Leveraging Technology for Peacebuilding in the South Caucasus”, held in Istanbul (Turkey). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.

On June 3, 2025, Dr. George Vlad Niculescu gave a short brief on the outcomes and potential implications of Romania’s 2025 presidential elections to the “Neighbourhoods” Working Group of the Institute of European Studies de l’Université UCLouvain, site de Saint-Louis-Brussels. Read here his briefing.

  • The Daily BriefSeptember 29, 2025
  • Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
  • Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017
More
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Fuad Shahbazov
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Fuad Shahbazov
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
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