In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg Adria, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, and Co-founder of the European Geopolitical Forum, assessed the prospects of energy transition in Europe within a complex geopolitical context. In particular, he addressed the main challenges ahead such as: decarbonization of transports, the need for an urgent diversification of energy (in particular gas) supply sources and adjusting the energy markets to geopolitical imperatives (mainly due to EU sanctions against Russia). Regarding the latter, Dr. Terterov alluded to an older issue: “can states control markets?”. While market actors (including suppliers and consumers) do not aim to support the Russian war in Ukraine, they don’t want to become collateral damage either. Gas trading relations are usually very long term. It’s therefore still to be seen how the European gas markets actors would react to Brussels pressures to phase out Russian gas supply over the short term. Meanwhile, Russia has no interest in undermining the European energy transition, but it may be interested to maintain a share of the European gas market, at least by the time it was able to fully redirect its exports towards the East (China, Pakistan). WATCH INTERVIEW

By Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA, PhD, founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS)

Existential differences and longstanding distrust make the current normalisation of relations deeply unstable.
This week (editor’s note: i.e. October 24- 28, 2025), India’s private airline Indigo flew one of its A320 planes from Kolkata to Guangzhou. It was the first direct flight from India to China in five years, following its halt during the Covid-19 pandemic and the souring of relations between the two neighbours in 2020 amid the border standoff that extended the freeze. In November, more flights, including Chinese carriers, will take to the sky, connecting New Delhi with Chinese cities. The resumption of direct air services is part of the increasing number of confidence-building measures undertaken by both countries to move past a history of distrust and adversarial relations. A détente is seemingly underway. However, on closer examination, the embrace appears more cautious and fragile. In recent months, both sides have unveiled more confidence-building measures. READ MORE

By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On October 25, Azerbaijan participated in the Nusret-2025 Invitation Exercise, a joint military drill held in the Gulf of Soros in Türkiye. The exercise aimed to strengthen cooperation between the Turkish Naval Forces and the naval forces of friendly and allied countries, such as Azerbaijan. This is the latest example of Azerbaijan’s partnership with Türkiye in strengthening its naval forces. The Caucasus region, particularly the Caspian littoral, is emerging as a focal point of geopolitical competition amid rising tensions between Russia and the West. The Caspian, often referred to as a “Russian lake” during the Soviet era, has presented new challenges to Russia’s regional dominance since 2022. Until the 2020s, Russia remained the most powerful naval power in the Caspian Sea, despite Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Iran systematically enhancing their naval capabilities over the past three decades. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as well as regional conflicts and reordering, have exacerbated Moscow’s declining leverage and hegemony in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. READ MORE

By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher

Azerbaijan-Russia relations have experienced a series of compounding crises since early 2025, raising questions about the future of Russian influence in the South Caucasus. This paper examines the underlying causes and strategic consequences of this shift in bilateral relationship, highlighting the decline of Russia’s regional influence, alongside Azerbaijan’s emergence as a more autonomous and confident regional power. The paper argues that Azerbaijan’s evolving strategic posture, underpinned by its alliance with Türkiye, its central role in transregional connectivity projects, and its relative economic resilience, has empowered Baku to engage Moscow in a more assertive and transactional relationship. At the same time, areas of interdependence remain, particularly in trade, transport infrastructure, and close humanitarian-cultural contacts, posing both risks and opportunities. The paper concludes that the future of Azerbaijan-Russia relations will hinge on Moscow’s ability to internalize the new power realities in the South Caucasus. READ MORE

By Aytaс MAHAMMADOVA, Energy Security Expert affiliated with the Caspian-Alpine Society

The year 2020 marked a watershed moment in the modern history of the South Caucasus, a turning point that fundamentally altered the region's geopolitical landscape. Azerbaijan, after 30 years of patient diplomacy punctuated by military confrontations, took decisive initiative and made history. The 44-day war that autumn demonstrated not only Azerbaijan's military capabilities but also its strategic determination to resolve the protracted Karabakh conflict through force when diplomatic channels proved exhausted. This bold move transformed Azerbaijan from a passive player awaiting international mediation into an active architect of its own destiny and, by extension, the region's future. Azerbaijan’s post-Karabakh victory and subsequent strategic initiatives have positioned it firmly on the path to middle-power status. By leveraging its geographic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, its energy resources, and its growing diplomatic influence, Azerbaijan has demonstrated the ability to shape regional agendas beyond its immediate borders. READ MORE

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia

Will the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) set to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan and Türkiye via Armenia help establish lasting peace and prosperity for all? Interestingly, if the Washington Declaration speaks about restoration of all communications, with reciprocal benefits for Armenia, the spotlight has been about the TRIPP and only about it. This oversight misses a vital point necessary for lasting peace and stability in the region. The launch of TRIPP alone will not establish real regional connectivity in the South Caucasus, or create the economic interdependence between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Türkiye needed to cement lasting regional peace and stability. Instead, focusing on the TRIPP will maintain Armenia’s isolation, restrict its geopolitical and geoeconomic flexibilities, while keeping the door open for future escalations over the longer term. READ MORE

By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

As Central Asia reshapes Eurasian trade routes, with China and Turkey consolidating influence, Europe faces a strategic test: adapt quickly to stay relevant or risk being sidelined in one of the 21st century’s most consequential connectivity shifts. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Central Asia has emerged as a critical hub in a reshaped Eurasian trade network. Countries from Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan are diversifying transit routes to reduce dependence on Russia, giving new prominence to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) – better known as the Middle Corridor. This corridor links China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus, bypassing traditional northern routes through Russia. READ MORE

By Yunis GURBANOV, PhD, Senior Advisor at the AIR Center, Baku

In September, countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reported several incidents involving airspace violations. On September 10, 19 drones crossed into Polish territory, prompting Warsaw to call for Article 4 consultations. In a separate episode on September 19, three Russian MiG-31 jets briefly entered Estonian airspace before being intercepted by NATO air policing units. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described these developments as concerning and emphasized that the Alliance remains attentive to safeguarding its members’ security. These incidents reflect an increasingly complex security environment along NATO’s eastern flank. The combination of drone activity and jet overflights highlights the challenges of managing airspace security in an era of hybrid threats. At the same time, the use of unmarked drones, short-duration incursions, and deactivated transponders complicates attribution and leaves room for differing interpretations of intent. READ MORE