There is a certain understanding amongst Middle East politics experts that a game breaking event of cataclysmic proportions hits the region once every ten years or so. September of this year will mark the 10th anniversary of the unimaginable acts of terrorism which were perpetrated in New York in September 2001 by Arab suicide bombers.

• Dr. Marat Terterov  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 18.07.2011  |  External Relations
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By Naim Ameur,
Senior Manager, Prime Ministry of Tunisia
EGF Affiliated Expert on Maghreb politics

Tunisia embarks upon the process of transition to democracy

It is now a well established fact amongst both the general public as well as the specialist of Middle Eastern politics that Tunisia under the almost-quarter century long rule of former President, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, was managed by a highly restrictive and rather authoritarian political system. The system empowered key pro-regime political instruments such as the Constitutional Democratic Rally simultaneously to ensuring that opposition political parties remained largely powerless or even being loyal to the regime. Other regime opponents, such as Tunisia’s Islamists, found themselves in exile and for the most part expelled from the country. While this is not surprising, given the dearth of democratic political culture in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), this likewise ensured that the country remained a “political wasteland” under its former president, who created what some local scholars now refer to as “political desertification”. READ MORE

• Naim Ameur  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 11.07.2011  |  External Relations
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Morocco’s stable security image shattered in April
Morocco witnessed a severe blow to its external image as one of the more stable and least dangerous North African Maghreb countries at the end of last month, when an apparent suicide bombing in the city of Marrakesh led to the deaths of 17 persons, including a number of foreign nationals. The fatal blast, which took place in a café in Marrakesh’s iconic Djemaa el-Fna square (a Unesco World Heritage site popular with European tourists) on April 28, was the first major, apparent act of terrorism in the country since the 2003 bombings in Casablanca which killed up to 45 people. READ MORE

• Marco Pantelakis and Mhamed Biygautane  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 16.05.2011  |  Security
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By Eugen Iladi, Independent Expert

The dramatic events in Tunisia and Egypt, where long-serving presidents have been ousted within weeks of each other by “street-led people’s revolts”, are inspiring demonstrators in other Muslim countries to demand structural political change. Libya is currently gripped by deep political crisis, as is the tiny Gulf Monarchy of Bahrain, whilst revolts are ongoing in Yemen, Morocco and Iran. Furthermore, Algeria seems to be one of the next countries possibly hanging in the balance, where the prospect of regime change must now be a question of serious concern.
Algeria is a country of vital importance both to the stability of the wider-Maghreb and Sahel-Sahara region as well as to European interests. The country is a major energy supplier to international markets. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national oil and gas champion is crucial to the country's ability to generate public revenues and any disruption would simply lead to more strife in the country. Sonatrach and Algerian oil and gas resources are important not just to Algeria: the European Union's security of energy supplies, U.S. energy interests, as well as Russia's energy investments all stand to suffer if Algeria becomes unreliable. Add to that fears of an Islamist resurgence in the country and, worse, the existing Al Qaeda threat in the Maghreb, and we are witnessing a very volatile concoction in a region not far removed from civil war and unresolved border disputes. READ MORE

• Eugen Iladi  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Security
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