By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Georgian parliamentary elections on 26 October 2024 have been highly contested with the opposition claiming that their win was stolen from them by the incumbent Georgian Dream party. As a result, the opposition initiated a legal procedure, demanded new elections and started peaceful protests against the election result, apparently to no avail. On 16 November, Georgia’s Central Election Commission validated the results of October’s highly contested elections, despite weeks of protests by the opposition and accusations of widespread fraud and Russian interference that were refuted by the Kremlin. This AIES Comment provides a perspective based on a combination of issues that highlight not just a divided but also a traumatised Georgian society that remembers the August 2008 war and is not ready to fight Russia again nor to deal with potential Russian interference. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.12.2024  |  External Relations
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By Nvard CHALIKYAN, Research Fellow, APRI Armenia
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow, APRI Armenia
Verej ISANIANS, Senior Editor, APRI Armenia

The South Caucasus is an important Eurasian political and economic hub, as its transport networks have the potential to facilitate travel across the continent. Control over the South Caucasus grants access to the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea basin, serving as a gateway to Central Asia and the Greater Middle East. Given its strategic importance, regional powers such as Russia, Türkiye, and Iran have vied for influence in the South Caucasus for centuries. In recent years, the demand for alternative transport corridors has surged amid the ongoing Ukraine war, sanctions on Russia, conflicts in the West Asia (Middle East) region, and the resulting difficulties with traditional supply routes such as the Suez Canal. Consequently, the South Caucasus has become increasingly important as a link between Asia, Europe, and Russia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.12.2024  |  External Relations
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By Vusal GULIYEV, Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group and Policy Expert at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center

Although Turkish - Chinese diplomatic relations periodically capture the global agenda due to their fragile aspects, examining the dynamics of economic relations in recent years reveals a different picture. While official Turkish - Chinese relations have been ongoing since 1971, the intensification of mutual economic cooperation dates back to the 2010s. Particularly, with the implementation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which encompasses 140 countries including Türkiye, the number of joint economic collaborations within the framework of international projects between the two countries has increased. Thanks to joint commercial projects carried out in recent years, China has become one of Türkiye’s largest investors and creditors. Chinese multinational companies continue to rapidly invest across various sectors of the Turkish economy. This article systematically analyses the commercial interests and investments of China, which has become one of the world’s largest investors and creditors, in Türkiye, considering the political-economic factors shaping Turkish - Chinese economic relations. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.12.2024  |  Markets
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

China is a relatively new player in the South Caucasus but has growing interests, particularly in the economic domain. While Beijing established diplomatic ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 1990s, it largely stayed out of the region’s geopolitics. Armenia acquired Chinese-made WM-80 multiple-launch systems in 1999, but they had little impact on the military balance with Azerbaijan. Chinese economic ties with the South Caucasus began to grow in the early 2000s, driven by the rapid expansion of its economy. Interest in the region deepened after President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, with the South Caucasus envisioned as a potential land route connecting China to Europe. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.12.2024  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

When on November 24, a U.S.-mediated ceasefire was brokered between Lebanon and Israel, many did not imagine that within days the Turkish-backed Syrian rebel factions would storm Aleppo and capture the city in less than 36 hours. There are a lot of questions about the preparation and readiness of the Syrian army. However, it was clear that the current status quo under President Bashar al-Assad would not be preserved for a long time, as the country was fragmented and in need of conflict resolution, not conflict management. Since the same regional actors involved in the South Caucasus — Iran, Russia, and Turkey — are also in Syria supporting opposite sides, there are concerns that the fire may expand beyond the Middle East. On November 29, the former al-Qaida associated group currently branded as ‘Hai’at Tahrir al-Sham’ (HTS) along with armed factions from the Turkish-backed ‘Syrian National Army’ (some of whom fought as mercenaries against Armenians in the 2020 war in Artsakh) and some mercenaries from Central Asia and the Caucasus entered the second largest city of Syria. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.12.2024  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the US presidential elections approached, pundits and politicians worldwide sought to predict the outcome and explore scenarios for US foreign policy under Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. This was unsurprising: Despite the end of the unipolar world order and significant shifts in the global balance of power, the United States remains the superpower capable of global influence. The South Caucasus was no exception, as pundits debated the potential implications of the election results for the region. The uncertainty ended on November 5, as Donald Trump secured his return to the White House in January 2025. What might the South Caucasus expect from Trump’s second presidency? READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.11.2024  |  External Relations
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On October 15, Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways Rovshan Rustamov arrived in Tehran to meet his Iranian counterpart Jabbar Ali Zakeri Sardroudi to discuss the construction of a railway line linking Azerbaijan’s East Zangezur region and its Nakhchivan exclave through Iran. The meeting came amid intensive diplomatic negotiations between Azerbaijan and Iran regarding the Aras Corridor transit route linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and further to Türkiye via Iran after a period of silence and diplomatic rifts between the two neighbors. The Aras Corridor project, strategically significant for both Baku and Tehran, emerged following Azerbaijan’s persistent efforts after the 2020 Karabakh War to establish regional communication lines, particularly a land route, through Armenia’s Syunik province to Nakhchivan and Türkiye, known as the Zangezur Corridor. The ongoing confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the land route through Syunik province has been a major point of contention, delaying the signing of a final peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.11.2024  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

With the future of key connectivity projects at stake, India must step up as a reliable mediator as the war in the Middle East escalates.
On 7 October 2023, Hamas launched the “al Aqsa Storm” operation against Israel, triggering a series of retaliatory military actions from both sides. Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Yemen also became involved, further escalating the conflict. With rising regional tensions and direct involvement from both Israel and Iran, instability across the Middle East has intensified. This conflict will also impact the future of economic corridors in the region in which India invests. In this context, the future of two important corridors—the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC)— is at stake. India initiated both corridors, emerging as a rising power in Eurasia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.11.2024  |  External Relations
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By Tabib Huseynov, independent policy analyst and researcher

In October 2024, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan simultaneously approved a Protocol regulating the joint work of their respective border delimitation commissions. Originally signed in August, this Protocol sets the legal and procedural framework for the subsequent border delimitation process between the two South Caucasus neighbours, who have been locked in a territorial dispute for over three decades. The protocol’s enactment in both countries became possible after Armenia’s Constitutional Court issued a landmark Decision No. 1749 on 26 September 2024, confirming that the border delimitation agreement complied with Armenia’s Constitution. As border delimitation is a key issue in the post-war normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, this favourable decision was widely anticipated. However, the Court’s Decision is remarkable not for its outcome, but rather its legal rationale, which traps Armenia in a legal and political Catch-22. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.11.2024  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

In his book “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics” one of the world’s leading realist scholars John J. Mearsheimer argues that in an unbalanced multipolarity, the balance of power is so asymmetrically distributed in favour of one side, that other great powers have no choice but to come together to balance the hegemonic power. This is the only rational choice among other great powers. As such, this kind of international order is fragile and always prone to wars. Within this logic, many would assume that Eurasian powers such as Russia and China should have fully backed Iran or its non-state allies in the Middle East to defeat Israel, or at least contain US interests in the region. Interestingly, this is not the case. Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi (another rising Eurasian power) are engaging in strategic balance and realpolitik to assess the situation, waiting for the outcome of the US presidential elections, and aiming to contain any spillover effect to their zone of influence. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.11.2024  |  External Relations
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