By Anahide PILIBOSSIAN, Vice President of Strategy and Development, APRI Armenia
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Despite economic challenges and existing agreements with the Eurasian Economic Union, Armenia seeks closer alignment with the EU.
The recent statement of the Armenian Foreign Minister in the margins of the Antalya Diplomatic Forum denotes Armenia’s desire to join the European Union. This aspiration raises important questions on Armenia’s current position and options, which this article seeks to shed light on. At the same time, today’s complicated geopolitical environment highlights the need for the EU to formulate a strategic vision for the region. Between Pax Europa and Pax Russica, Armenia first went with the latter. However, following Yerevan’s defeat in the second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the military takeover of the region by Azerbaijan, despite the presence of the Russian peacekeepers, Armenia has now opted for the former. It stated its desire, backed by the EU, to join the Black Sea energy cable project (from which it has been excluded, reportedly as a result of pressures from Azerbaijan) and promote a regional infrastructure and connectivity project called the Crossroad of Peace, embracing, as European leaders did after World War II, the peace-building effects of economic regional integration projects. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.06.2024  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On May 14, Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar and Azerbaijani Minister of Economy Mikail Jabbarov signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of natural gas, including the export of Central Asian gas to Türkiye. Bayraktar told the media that by 2030, Türkiye is expected to receive increased gas supplies from Azerbaijan’s natural gas deposits and the Caspian Sea’s natural gas reserves, though he did not specify how much. Some of the gas flowing to Türkiye will transit onward to Europe. Bayraktar highlighted that a key aspect of the deal was arrangements for transporting Turkmen natural gas to Türkiye via Georgia and Azerbaijan. In recent years, traditionally isolated Turkmenistan has begun to seek more cooperation with outside partners, especially in the energy sector. The transit of Turkmen gas to Türkiye and onward to European markets would go a long way in removing ongoing reliance on Russian supplies. While Bayraktar did not disclose the planned transit route for the Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan or the amount of gas involved, several recent developments offer hints on how the two sides plan to carry out this project. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 07.06.2024  |  Energy
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Armenia is still absorbing the implications of the protests that overwhelmed Yerevan on May 9. On April 19, 2024, the Armenian and Azerbaijani border delimitation and demarcation commissions signed the protocol on the delimitation and demarcation process in the Tavush region of Armenia. That agreement granted Azerbaijan control over a patch of territory along that border that had been officially part of Soviet Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The movement “Tavush for the Motherland” started with the closure of the Armenia-Georgia interstate highway near the village of Kirants in the Tavush region, one of the villages that was going to be affected by the process. Later, it transformed into a march towards Yerevan. Protestors led by Tavush Archbishop Bagrat reached Yerevan on May 9, 2024, and at a rally asked for Prime Minister Pashinyan's resignation. The rally was followed by several rallies in Yerevan in the last two weeks, sometimes accompanied by clashes with police. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 07.06.2024  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

There is a growing consensus among some analysts that Western policies towards Russia and China have been a big disaster. Instead of preventing the creation of the Sino-Russo alliance, the West has virtually pushed Russia into the arms of China. The opposite was expected from the United States by many scholars and veteran diplomats, including Henry Kissinger. The United States will have to reach an understanding with China on a new global order to ensure stability, or the world will face a dangerous period like the one which preceded World War One, he said in 2021, two years before he passed away. Against the backdrop of the latest visit of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to China, which is reported to be the 40th meeting between the leaders of the two countries over the past 10 years, there is enough ground to argue that Washington failed to “reach an understanding with Beijing on a new global order. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 31.05.2024  |  External Relations
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Since its victory in the Second Karabakh War with Armenia in 2020, the Azerbaijani government has begun a massive reconstruction of the former war-torn region. Azerbaijan has demonstrated a firm commitment to reconstructing Nagorno-Karabakh, which was largely neglected and left unattended for three decades. According to the Azerbaijani state media, between 2020 and 2023, the authorities have allocated AZN12 billion to Karabakh's reconstruction/rebuilding process and an additional AZN4 billion AZN in 2024. Overall, the state programme dubbed “Great Return” envisions the allocation of AZN30.5 billion from the state budget between 2022 and 2026. Considering the fact that the reconstruction is a lengthy and costly process, at the first stage, Azerbaijan prioritized the reconstruction of larger urban areas such as Aghdam, Lachin, Shusha, Fuzuli, and Zangilan in order to initiate the steady return of former Azerbaijani IDPs, making those areas economically attractive for potential local and foreign investors. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 31.05.2024  |  Markets
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On May 13, 2024, Iran and India signed a historic deal under which New Delhi was granted the right to develop and operate the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman. India has been eying this port for the past two decades to export goods to Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asian countries and bypass the Chinese-developed ports of Gwadar and Karachi in Pakistan. Commenting on the deal after the signing ceremony in Tehran, India’s Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal said, “Chabahar Port’s significance transcends its role as a mere conduit between India and Iran; it serves as a vital trade artery connecting India with Afghanistan and Central Asian Countries.” Under this agreement, the Indian Ports Global Limited (IPGL) company will invest $120 million in the port with an additional $250 million in financing. Within this context, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told reporters in Mumbai that this deal will open the path for new, larger investments to be made in the port. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 23.05.2024  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On May 10 and 11, the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, respectively, met for another round of bilateral peace negotiations in Almaty, Kazakhstan. It was the second meeting this year between the two sides after meeting in Berlin on February 28 and 29. The Almaty talks came after the initiation of the delimitation process on the Armenian-Azerbaijani interstate border, with the return of four non-enclave villages to Azerbaijan in April (see EDM, April 17, 23, May 14). The act was celebrated by some as the first instance in the post-Soviet era of a peaceful resolution in the long-standing territorial disputes between the two countries (Azertag.az, April 19; State.gov, April 28). The two parties hope to build on this progress and foster a constructive atmosphere during the talks in Almaty. These developments point to progress in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, demonstrating both sides’ willingness to pursue improved relations. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 23.05.2024  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the global order continues to morph into a more complex architecture with an array of global and regional powers, the geopolitical future of the South Caucasus hangs in the balance. The tectonic changes in the region of the last four years – the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, the regional implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and forced displacement of Armenians, the EU candidate status for Georgia and Georgia’s quest for multi-vector foreign policy including the establishment of strategic partnership with China, the limbo in Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations, growing assertiveness of Azerbaijan and eventual move of Armenia towards closer cooperation with the EU and the US – all make the situation quite complex. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 14.05.2024  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

The geopolitics of the South Caucasus is as unpredictable as ever. Even as recently as the beginning of April, few, if any, would have imagined that Russia may withdraw its peacekeeping contingent from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan anytime soon. Many observers were even sceptical about the possibility of their withdrawal in November 2025 – the date which was stipulated in the November 2020 trilateral statement as the potential but not fixed date for the ending of the peacekeeping mission of Russia. This skepticism was grounded in the understanding that for Russia, Karabakh holds paramount importance in the broader context of the South Caucasus. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 14.05.2024  |  Security
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On April 17, 2024, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, at a meeting with the residents of Kirants village in the Tavush region, said that for the past 30 years, the residents have lived “in the conditions of lawlessness, and the time has come to put an end to this, to establish a rule of law” in the region. The PM added: “Our idea is for you not to say Azerbaijan is 50 meters away, but to say, wow, it is good that Azerbaijan is 50 meters away. We will trade there. We will build the economy there. Maybe we will build another checkpoint. Cars will come and go and pay the Republic of Armenia.” He later continued: “Now you can say to me: Do you 100-percent guarantee that you will do this? I will answer, I don’t guarantee 100-percent, but I know that by taking step by step, we will reach 90-percent or even more.” Azerbaijan insists that there are four bordering villages near Armenia’s Tavush and Azerbaijan’s Qazax region that must be ceded to Azerbaijan. Baku argues that these villages were taken by Armenian forces in the early 1990s.” READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 14.05.2024  |  External Relations
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