By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The 25 September referendum in the Kurdish region may not lead to Kurdish independence any time soon, but neighbouring countries are apprehensive.
On September 25, 2017 the long-anticipated independence referendum took place in the region administered by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and other mainly Kurdish populated disputed areas of Iraq. Those areas are outside of KRG administered boundaries defined by the Iraqi constitution, but currently are under control of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters. According to preliminary official results voting turnout was 72 percent and approximately 93 percent of participants voted for independence. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 02.10.2017  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Turkey's decision to buy Russia's S-400 missile defence system opens a new stage in relations between the two countries.
Over the last two years Russia-Turkey relations have gone through tremendous transformations. Immediately after the November 2015 incident, when Turkish military jets shot down a Russian war plane, Russia imposed tough economic sanctions on Turkey and publicly accused President Erdogan of supporting terrorism, including "Islamic State". The situation dramatically changed in summer 2016 when Erdogan apologized for the November 2015 incident. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 20.09.2017  |  Security
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By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert

This opinion piece applies post-conflict scenario planning to the future of the regional energy security cooperation in the Black Sea-Caspian basin and describes collaborative steps that could be taken by all relevant players to think more deeply about promoting the integration of energy markets in this part of the world.
Notwithstanding the most acute unpredictability of the new societies in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia in the 1990s, the young states simultaneously faced the need for intense capital investments in their energy sectors that could drive economic growth. Since then, both the Black Sea and the Caspian basin alike have become crossroads for increased commerce and economic development as the old Silk Road is revived. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 20.09.2017  |  Energy
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By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

There is a preconceived and very inaccurate perception in the West at large that the Russian Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) has and will continue to have difficulties in the coming years because Russia faces domestic economic challenges caused by the low price of oil, continuing economic sanctions imposed by the EU and the US and the breakdown of defence industrial relations with Ukraine.
There is very little understanding in the West that for President Vladimir Putin the issue of rearmament and well-functioning of the MIC are of crucial importance, and that the Russian president is not ready to give up an inch in tenaciously pursuing this ambitious items on his domestic agenda. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 14.09.2017  |  Markets
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenia did not turn up for a NATO military exercise in Georgia as was expected. The most probable reason may be the attempt of Yerevan to avoid jeopardizing its strategic alliance with Russia.
On September 3rd, NATO's Agile Spirit 2017 military drills were launched in Georgia with the participation of Georgian, US, Ukrainian, Romanian, Bulgarian, Latvian and Azerbaijani troops. Armenia was among the countries due to participate, but cancelled its involvement although the Armenian Ministry of Defence issued a statement on September 4th saying that Armenia had never decided to take part in that exercise. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |   |  Security
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Long term economic development may play a key role in defining the balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Last month has seen Armenia engaging in high level contacts with Iran and Turkmenistan. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan participated in Iranian President Rouhani's inauguration. During a bilateral meeting between the two presidents perspectives for developing Armenian - Iranian relations were discussed including the possibility to expand the cooperation in the energy sphere. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |   |  Energy
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

China's growing involvement in the South Caucasus may provide Armenia a much needed flexibility in its foreign policy.
On August 9, 2017 work started on the construction of China's new Embassy building in Yerevan. Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, Yerevan's Mayor Taron Markarian, and visiting Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Li Huilai participated in the ground-breaking ceremony of the 40,000-square-meter embassy compound that should be completed by the end of 2019. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |   |  External Relations
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Armenian and Azerbaijani societies continue to prepare for war despite the prospect of a presidential summit in the autumn. The best-case scenario is a continuation of low intensity conflict along the line of contact.
On July 11, 2017, the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers met in Brussels for another round of negotiations on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. According to the available information no breakthrough has been reached. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 29.07.2017  |  Security
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Expert-advisor, Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Azerbaijan Republic

Baku hosted the first joint gathering of the heads of the railway administrations of Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine and Poland, on June 19. The meeting was dedicated to the newly-launched “South-West Transport Corridor,” which links into the broader Trans-Caspian International Route project launched in 2016. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |   |  Markets
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By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Russia effectively uses the complicated geopolitical situation of Armenia to strengthen its grip on Yerevan, and uses its alliance with Armenia as an efficient tool to further its position in the South Caucasus.
Alliance with Russia is the cornerstone of Armenian foreign and security policy. Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Russia-led military block comprising six former Soviet republics. A Russian military base is deployed in Armenia, and will be there at least until 2044. Armenia has a joint air defense system with Russia, and in 2016 the two countries formed a joint military force. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |   |  External Relations
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