By Jack Sharples, Research Fellow of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and EGF Associate Researcher on the External Dimensions of Russian Gas
With European gas import demand having risen substantially since 2014, Gazprom has dramatically increased its sales on the European market. In Q1 2018, Gazprom reported record daily gas exports to Europe in late February and early March. This Comment addresses the question of how those volumes were delivered to the market, and the extent to which the infrastructure for delivery of those volumes was used, highlighting that, in times of peak European gas import demand, full utilisation of the Nord Stream and Yamal-Europe pipelines left Ukraine as the only transit route with spare capacity. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 16.05.2018
| Markets
On April 23, Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan resigned in response to mass protests. On March 2, 2018, the presidential elections took place in Armenia. According to the amendments to the Armenian Constitution adopted at the December 6, 2015 referendum, initiated by the ruling Republican Party, the president becomes a symbolic figure, while the real power goes to the prime minister. However, despite Serzh Sargsyan’s assurances that he was not going to occupy the chair of the prime minister, the majority of voters in Armenia were confident that it was the incumbent president who would become the next prime minister, which would allow him thus to retain all the power in his hands. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 10.05.2018
| External Relations
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The South Caucasus is facing multiple security challenges with no clear path to overcome them in the foreseeable future. The conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are hampering any efforts to have an inclusive regional cooperation, and are the key reasons for the strained Russia - Georgia relations and absence of relations between Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, there are no immediately apparent ways to move towards the settlement of these conflicts. Russia deployed military bases in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and demanded from Georgia to accept the geopolitical facts on the ground. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 09.05.2018
| Security
By George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum
On 17 April 2018, Armenia’s National Assembly overwhelmingly voted to install Serzh Sargsyan -former president of the country- as prime minister. They unequivocally ignored the “voice of the street” calling for a change of face at the helm of this rather small, but ambitious post-Soviet state. This vote was supposed to conclude a power capture scheme started back in 2015.[…] Under pressure from independent civil society, then president Sargsyan had promised not to turn up as candidate for the prime-ministerial post. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 01.05.2018
| External Relations
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
The April 14 US, UK and France joint strikes in Syria and the heated debates in the UN Security Council just before and after the military action once more emphasized the growing disagreements between Russia and the Western powers on Syria. However, the targeted and limited military strikes have no ability to alter the course of the conflict. Since the launch of the Russian military operation in September 2015, Syrian government forces, with the active support of Russian and Iranian units, have made tangible successes, including the establishment of full control over Aleppo and pushing back rebel groups from the suburbs of Damascus. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 01.05.2018
| Security
By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
Undoubtedly, the Russian annexation of Crimea in March 2014 caused serious damage to the Ukrainian Naval Forces. About 70 per cent of the fleet has been lost and what remained is in poor shape and in need of repairs.
The resulting conflict in the Eastern part of Ukraine drew attention, energy and resources away from the difficult state of the Ukrainian Navy towards the urgent needs of the army and air force. The perilous state of the economy has further decreased financial support for the Navy’s needs. In addition, a debate on the conceptual vision of the Navy divided the expert community and top naval personnel for about 15 months. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 27.04.2018
| Markets
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
On April 11, the incumbent President of Azerbaijan lham Aliyev was re-elected for his fourth term in office. Despite a boycott by the Azerbaijani opposition, as well as a tough assessment on elections from western observers, very few doubt that Aliyev will continue to rule in Azerbaijan. On April 9, Armenia finalized its transformation from semi-presidential system of government to a parliamentary one. The Parliament elected a new President - former Armenian ambassador in the UK Armen Sarkissian. His role defined by the new constitution is purely ceremonial. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 27.04.2018
| Security
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Since the Russia – Georgia war in 2008 one of the key geopolitical features of the post–Soviet space has been the Russian effort to reinstall its influence over former Soviet republics and diminish the role of the Euro-Atlantic community. The 2008 war, the 2014 Crimea crisis, and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine are examples of Russian use of hard power to pursue geopolitical interests in the region. However, one of the key tools in the Russian arsenal to regain its dominant position within the post–Soviet world is the effective use of propaganda and information campaigns against the Euro-Atlantic institutions. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 17.04.2018
| External Relations
By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert
The world’s future is currently endangered by numerous fundamental threats, yet Western democracies fear only one – Vladimir Putin. On all geopolitical fronts of the emerging multipolar world the Russian President has smartly backlashed against all collective challenges mounted by the West. Small wonder the West’s incessant fear of Russia’s military power has made Putin the world’s most powerful man. What is currently happening in West-Russia relations is not a new Cold War; it is not even a renewed East-West divide. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 16.04.2018
| External Relations
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Russia - Turkish relations are going through tremendous transformations. Just two and half years ago, Turkey was a target of harsh Russian criticism, with Moscow accusing Ankara of supporting the Islamic State, assisting various other terrorist groups deployed in Syria, and oil smuggling. However, since summer 2016, bilateral relations have improved significantly. Syria is a stark example of that thaw, seeing Russia tacitly supporting the Turkish incursion into Northern Syria in summer 2016 as well as turning a blind eye to the Turkish offensive in Afrin. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 11.04.2018
| External Relations
EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE
EGF Affiliated expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN appeared in a new episode of the weekly TV program “Viewpoint” where he discussed the implications of the presidential elections in Iran. WATCH HERE
EGF Affiliated Expert Nika Chitadze edited and co-authored a new article on the “Geopolitical situation in the Black Sea region and possible scenarios for future developments” published on researchgate.net: “In summary, the Black Sea region is witnessing an intensification of strategic interests and activities by global powers like the United States and China. These interests encompass energy projects, military presence, socio-economic development, trade, and geopolitical influence, making the region a focal point for strategic engagement and competition.” READ HERE
EGF Affiliated expert Yeghia TASHJYAN has recently published research on: “The Battle of the Corridors: Regional Interconnectivity and the Geo-economic future of the Middle East”. He concluded that “[…] it is essential to analyse Russia’s position in the South Caucasus and the logic of “regional interconnectivity” that Moscow is aiming to have land access to the Middle East. Russia views these regions from a holistic perspective, that is those regions have shared historical, cultural, and economic interactions, and are not geographically separated areas.” READ HERE
Between 11-13 April 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 27th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Does the European Union Need a Strategy for the South Caucasus?”, held in Chisinau (Republic of Moldova). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, and here for the ensuing Policy Recommendations.
On February 7, 2023, the Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF Dr Marat TERTEROV moderated, and the Head of Research, Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in, the first panel of the web-conference on “The War in Ukraine: What Consequences for the Countries of Our Neighbourhood – East and South: What New Challenges for the EU?” organized by the Institute for European Studies of the Saint Louis University Brussels. Click here to read George’s speaking points, here for the conclusions (in French and in English) and here for the summary of presentations (in French only) of the web-conference.