By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert
This opinion piece applies post-conflict scenario planning to the future of the regional energy security cooperation in the Black Sea-Caspian basin and describes collaborative steps that could be taken by all relevant players to think more deeply about promoting the integration of energy markets in this part of the world.
Notwithstanding the most acute unpredictability of the new societies in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia in the 1990s, the young states simultaneously faced the need for intense capital investments in their energy sectors that could drive economic growth. Since then, both the Black Sea and the Caspian basin alike have become crossroads for increased commerce and economic development as the old Silk Road is revived. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 20.09.2017
| Energy
By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
There is a preconceived and very inaccurate perception in the West at large that the Russian Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) has and will continue to have difficulties in the coming years because Russia faces domestic economic challenges caused by the low price of oil, continuing economic sanctions imposed by the EU and the US and the breakdown of defence industrial relations with Ukraine.
There is very little understanding in the West that for President Vladimir Putin the issue of rearmament and well-functioning of the MIC are of crucial importance, and that the Russian president is not ready to give up an inch in tenaciously pursuing this ambitious items on his domestic agenda. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 14.09.2017
| Markets
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Armenia did not turn up for a NATO military exercise in Georgia as was expected. The most probable reason may be the attempt of Yerevan to avoid jeopardizing its strategic alliance with Russia.
On September 3rd, NATO's Agile Spirit 2017 military drills were launched in Georgia with the participation of Georgian, US, Ukrainian, Romanian, Bulgarian, Latvian and Azerbaijani troops. Armenia was among the countries due to participate, but cancelled its involvement although the Armenian Ministry of Defence issued a statement on September 4th saying that Armenia had never decided to take part in that exercise. READ MORE
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Long term economic development may play a key role in defining the balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Last month has seen Armenia engaging in high level contacts with Iran and Turkmenistan. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan participated in Iranian President Rouhani's inauguration. During a bilateral meeting between the two presidents perspectives for developing Armenian - Iranian relations were discussed including the possibility to expand the cooperation in the energy sphere. READ MORE
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
China's growing involvement in the South Caucasus may provide Armenia a much needed flexibility in its foreign policy.
On August 9, 2017 work started on the construction of China's new Embassy building in Yerevan. Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, Yerevan's Mayor Taron Markarian, and visiting Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Li Huilai participated in the ground-breaking ceremony of the 40,000-square-meter embassy compound that should be completed by the end of 2019. READ MORE
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Armenian and Azerbaijani societies continue to prepare for war despite the prospect of a presidential summit in the autumn. The best-case scenario is a continuation of low intensity conflict along the line of contact.
On July 11, 2017, the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers met in Brussels for another round of negotiations on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. According to the available information no breakthrough has been reached. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 29.07.2017
| Security
By Fuad Shahbazov, Expert-advisor, Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Azerbaijan Republic
Baku hosted the first joint gathering of the heads of the railway administrations of Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine and Poland, on June 19. The meeting was dedicated to the newly-launched “South-West Transport Corridor,” which links into the broader Trans-Caspian International Route project launched in 2016. READ MORE
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Russia effectively uses the complicated geopolitical situation of Armenia to strengthen its grip on Yerevan, and uses its alliance with Armenia as an efficient tool to further its position in the South Caucasus.
Alliance with Russia is the cornerstone of Armenian foreign and security policy. Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Russia-led military block comprising six former Soviet republics. A Russian military base is deployed in Armenia, and will be there at least until 2044. Armenia has a joint air defense system with Russia, and in 2016 the two countries formed a joint military force. READ MORE
By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia
Chances that Armenia will change its mind again about its relations with the EU are low, but this can still happen if Russia's relations with the west deteriorate further.
On March 21, 2017, Armenia and the EU initialed a new Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. This achievement was perceived as a critical step forward in fostering bilateral relations following a period of bitter disappointment in both Brussels and among the pro-European Armenians after the abrupt decision by Armenia, in September 2013, to withdraw from its negotiated Association Agreement with the EU, while choosing to join instead the Russia led Eurasian Economic Union - EAEU. READ MORE
EGF Editor |
Опубликовано на EGF: 04.07.2017
| External Relations
By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert
It should be remembered that Turkey’s relations with NATO were not as smooth as perhaps some experts wished to think, even before the failed coup on 15 July 2016. For instance, back in November 2009 the AKP government was adamant that despite Turkish soldiers’ participation in the ISAF mission they were not combat troops. Turkey's position at the time irked allies in NATO and the US in particular, and it has not changed since then. READ MORE
EGF Editro |
Опубликовано на EGF: 24.06.2017
| Security
EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE
EGF Affiliated expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN appeared in a new episode of the weekly TV program “Viewpoint” where he discussed the implications of the presidential elections in Iran. WATCH HERE
EGF Affiliated Expert Nika Chitadze edited and co-authored a new article on the “Geopolitical situation in the Black Sea region and possible scenarios for future developments” published on researchgate.net: “In summary, the Black Sea region is witnessing an intensification of strategic interests and activities by global powers like the United States and China. These interests encompass energy projects, military presence, socio-economic development, trade, and geopolitical influence, making the region a focal point for strategic engagement and competition.” READ HERE
EGF Affiliated expert Yeghia TASHJYAN has recently published research on: “The Battle of the Corridors: Regional Interconnectivity and the Geo-economic future of the Middle East”. He concluded that “[…] it is essential to analyse Russia’s position in the South Caucasus and the logic of “regional interconnectivity” that Moscow is aiming to have land access to the Middle East. Russia views these regions from a holistic perspective, that is those regions have shared historical, cultural, and economic interactions, and are not geographically separated areas.” READ HERE
Between 11-13 April 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 27th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Does the European Union Need a Strategy for the South Caucasus?”, held in Chisinau (Republic of Moldova). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, and here for the ensuing Policy Recommendations.
On February 7, 2023, the Founder, and former Executive Director of the EGF Dr Marat TERTEROV moderated, and the Head of Research, Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in, the first panel of the web-conference on “The War in Ukraine: What Consequences for the Countries of Our Neighbourhood – East and South: What New Challenges for the EU?” organized by the Institute for European Studies of the Saint Louis University Brussels. Click here to read George’s speaking points, here for the conclusions (in French and in English) and here for the summary of presentations (in French only) of the web-conference.