By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

With the world’s focus on Russia and its war in Ukraine, China has been advancing its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, amid Iran’s political and military withdrawal from the Levant. Turkey, through the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), has been expanding its footprint in Central Asia. Ankara aims to increase its political and economic influence over the region by promoting regional stability and building stronger ties. Its objectives can be categorized as follows:

• Pan-Turkism: Turkey sees itself as the head of the Turkic-speaking peoples in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Using various tools and strategies, Turkey aims to enhance its cultural, historical and linguistic ties. For instance, in September 2024, the Turkic Academy agreed on a common 34-letter alphabet that would help the 170 million Turkic people worldwide understand and cooperate with each other more effectively.
• The OTS is also another way for Turkey to position itself in a vital role amid regional political dynamics. Central Asia looks to balance relationships with Russia and China, while the U.S. is working to undermine their influence, making Turkey an appealing partner for Central Asian states that seek to diversify their foreign relations and avoid dependence on a single external power. These states engage in multilateral forums such as the OTS and strengthen bilateral ties, such as when Turkey and Kazakhstan signed a deal to become strategic partners.

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 08.01.2025  |  External Relations
•  

By Vusal GULIYEV, Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group and Policy Expert at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center

The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) has gained renewed significance amid global geopolitical unrest and economic uncertainty. As regional tensions rise, member states are leveraging shared linguistic, cultural, and historical ties to foster closer economic, political, and security cooperation. The OTS aims to enhance intra-regional trade, energy collaboration, and collective resilience, positioning itself as a key player in stabilizing and advancing the interests of the Turkic world in an increasingly volatile global landscape.The recent regional events and the geopolitical consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian war have had a profound impact on the dynamics among Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and the Central Asian Turkic states (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan). This shifting geopolitical landscape has been the catalyst of collaboration and integration for these countries under the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), an intergovernmental organization that aims to foster cooperation among Turkic-speaking nations. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 08.01.2025  |  External Relations
•  

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies


Currently, the situation is intriguing. Both sides claim substantial progress in peace talks. At the December 5 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Ministerial Council, Armenia’s foreign minister announced that the preamble to the peace agreement text and 15 out of its 17 articles had been finalized. The Armenian prime minister later stated that 90% of the text was agreed. However, according to the Azerbaijani state-affiliated think tank AIR Center, at least three contentious issues remain unresolved: the presence of the European Union (EU) mission in Armenia, constitutional and legal changes in Armenia, and the withdrawal of Armenia’s legal cases against Azerbaijan in international courts. Baku has also proposed two other preconditions to any peace agreement. These include dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group and establishing a “Zangezur corridor” free of Armenian control. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 20.12.2024  |  External Relations
•  

By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On 10 December, the Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), a Baku-based political think tank closely affiliated with the Azerbaijani government, held a high-level international conference titled “The Main Obstacle to a Peace Agreement Between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” The conference identified the territorial claims in Armenia’s constitution against Azerbaijan as the primary obstacle to peace. Elnur Mammadov, Azerbaijan's Deputy Foreign Minister, contributed to the discussion as keynote speaker, clarifying the position of the Azerbaijani government on the issue. The event also featured James Sharp, former UK Ambassador to Azerbaijan, and Židas Daskalovski, adviser to the North Macedonian president, who shared insights from their countries’ experiences in amending constitutions to resolve interstate disputes. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 20.12.2024  |  External Relations
•  

By Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

Georgian parliamentary elections on 26 October 2024 have been highly contested with the opposition claiming that their win was stolen from them by the incumbent Georgian Dream party. As a result, the opposition initiated a legal procedure, demanded new elections and started peaceful protests against the election result, apparently to no avail. On 16 November, Georgia’s Central Election Commission validated the results of October’s highly contested elections, despite weeks of protests by the opposition and accusations of widespread fraud and Russian interference that were refuted by the Kremlin. This AIES Comment provides a perspective based on a combination of issues that highlight not just a divided but also a traumatised Georgian society that remembers the August 2008 war and is not ready to fight Russia again nor to deal with potential Russian interference. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.12.2024  |  External Relations
•  

By Nvard CHALIKYAN, Research Fellow, APRI Armenia
Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow, APRI Armenia
Verej ISANIANS, Senior Editor, APRI Armenia

The South Caucasus is an important Eurasian political and economic hub, as its transport networks have the potential to facilitate travel across the continent. Control over the South Caucasus grants access to the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea basin, serving as a gateway to Central Asia and the Greater Middle East. Given its strategic importance, regional powers such as Russia, Türkiye, and Iran have vied for influence in the South Caucasus for centuries. In recent years, the demand for alternative transport corridors has surged amid the ongoing Ukraine war, sanctions on Russia, conflicts in the West Asia (Middle East) region, and the resulting difficulties with traditional supply routes such as the Suez Canal. Consequently, the South Caucasus has become increasingly important as a link between Asia, Europe, and Russia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.12.2024  |  External Relations
•  

By Vusal GULIYEV, Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group and Policy Expert at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center

Although Turkish - Chinese diplomatic relations periodically capture the global agenda due to their fragile aspects, examining the dynamics of economic relations in recent years reveals a different picture. While official Turkish - Chinese relations have been ongoing since 1971, the intensification of mutual economic cooperation dates back to the 2010s. Particularly, with the implementation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which encompasses 140 countries including Türkiye, the number of joint economic collaborations within the framework of international projects between the two countries has increased. Thanks to joint commercial projects carried out in recent years, China has become one of Türkiye’s largest investors and creditors. Chinese multinational companies continue to rapidly invest across various sectors of the Turkish economy. This article systematically analyses the commercial interests and investments of China, which has become one of the world’s largest investors and creditors, in Türkiye, considering the political-economic factors shaping Turkish - Chinese economic relations. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.12.2024  |  Markets
•  

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

China is a relatively new player in the South Caucasus but has growing interests, particularly in the economic domain. While Beijing established diplomatic ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 1990s, it largely stayed out of the region’s geopolitics. Armenia acquired Chinese-made WM-80 multiple-launch systems in 1999, but they had little impact on the military balance with Azerbaijan. Chinese economic ties with the South Caucasus began to grow in the early 2000s, driven by the rapid expansion of its economy. Interest in the region deepened after President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, with the South Caucasus envisioned as a potential land route connecting China to Europe. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.12.2024  |  External Relations
•  

By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

When on November 24, a U.S.-mediated ceasefire was brokered between Lebanon and Israel, many did not imagine that within days the Turkish-backed Syrian rebel factions would storm Aleppo and capture the city in less than 36 hours. There are a lot of questions about the preparation and readiness of the Syrian army. However, it was clear that the current status quo under President Bashar al-Assad would not be preserved for a long time, as the country was fragmented and in need of conflict resolution, not conflict management. Since the same regional actors involved in the South Caucasus — Iran, Russia, and Turkey — are also in Syria supporting opposite sides, there are concerns that the fire may expand beyond the Middle East. On November 29, the former al-Qaida associated group currently branded as ‘Hai’at Tahrir al-Sham’ (HTS) along with armed factions from the Turkish-backed ‘Syrian National Army’ (some of whom fought as mercenaries against Armenians in the 2020 war in Artsakh) and some mercenaries from Central Asia and the Caucasus entered the second largest city of Syria. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.12.2024  |  External Relations
•  

By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the US presidential elections approached, pundits and politicians worldwide sought to predict the outcome and explore scenarios for US foreign policy under Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. This was unsurprising: Despite the end of the unipolar world order and significant shifts in the global balance of power, the United States remains the superpower capable of global influence. The South Caucasus was no exception, as pundits debated the potential implications of the election results for the region. The uncertainty ended on November 5, as Donald Trump secured his return to the White House in January 2025. What might the South Caucasus expect from Trump’s second presidency? READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.11.2024  |  External Relations
•