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EGF
The European Geopolitical Forum

Monday 8 September 2025

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Publication
Russian–Turkish Rapprochement: Implications for the South Caucasus

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Russia - Turkish relations are going through tremendous transformations. Just two and half years ago, Turkey was a target of harsh Russian criticism, with Moscow accusing Ankara of supporting the Islamic State, assisting various other terrorist groups deployed in Syria, and oil smuggling. However, since summer 2016, bilateral relations have improved significantly. Syria is a stark example of that thaw, seeing Russia tacitly supporting the Turkish incursion into Northern Syria in summer 2016 as well as turning a blind eye to the Turkish offensive in Afrin. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 11.04.2018  |  External Relations
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How Do Russian Loans “Help” Armenia to Modernize Its Military Capabilities?

Benyamin Poghosyan By Fuad Sahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Armenia’s dependence on Russia makes it a pivotal foothold of Moscow in the South Caucasus, as the only host country of a Russian military base in the region, as well as a member in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). While the growing arms race in the region and the recent escalation of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh increased the vulnerability of Armenia, Russia seems to have reinforced its ability to ensure full control over Armenia. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 11.04.2018  |  Security
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Iran and the US are slowly heading towards collision

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

US attempts to change the provisions of the nuclear deal with Iran will intensify over the next months, but things are only likely to come to a head in 2019.
Since the election of President Trump, US-Iran relations have deteriorated significantly. The new US administration has ratcheted up pressure against Tehran threatening to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal, also known as JCPOA. The key members of President Trump national security team have accused Iran of supporting terrorism, sowing chaos in the Middle East, and creating a vast network of non-state actors vehemently countering US interests in the region. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 04.04.2018  |  Security
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Armenia’s Karabakh Strategy, from Status Quo to Preemption

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the number one national security priority for Armenia. Armenia guarantees the security of the people of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic, having supported Karabakh during the 1992–94 war with Azerbaijan and through the years of cease-fire. Since 1994, Armenia has been involved in negotiation process in order to resolve the conflict with Azerbaijan. In recent years talks focused on the so-called Madrid Principles prepared by international mediators. Armenia accepted these principles as a basis for settlement and expressed willingness to sign a framework agreement during the summit in Kazan, Russia in 2011. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 27.03.2018  |  Security
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The Other Side of Conflict Resolution: Mobilizing Peace Constituencies in the South Caucasus

Elkhan Nuriyev By Elkhan Nuriyev, BREC Global Energy Associate, EGF Affiliated Expert

The international community has so far paid little attention to the South Caucasus where the conflict resolution process is stuck in political limbo for years. This apparent neglect and the lack of understanding of the deep-rooted issues have created an informational landscape where fake news stories harm the ordinary people and violate their fundamental right to make informed choices on the basis of accurate information that is free of deception and manipulation. In effect, the current climate of disinformation aggravates regional tensions and makes incumbent authorities vulnerable to instability. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 27.03.2018  |  Markets
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Turkey and Russia aspire to replace a century of Western domination of the Middle East

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

An "Eurasianist" ideology is helping to consolidate a Russia - Turkey strategic alliance, as a viable tool to achieve long term strategic interests in the Middle East and beyond.
The security architecture of the Middle East is in the midst of a tremendous transformation. Since the end of the First World War the region has been under Western domination of some form or another. In 1920s and 1930s it was wrapped within the mandate system imposed by the League of Nations, and since the end of the Second World War the US has been the regional kingmaker. The Soviet Union had some footholds such as Egypt during Nasser's rule, as well as Syria and parts of Yemen. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |   |  External Relations
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Russian-Turkish Relations and their Impact on NATO and the EU

By Eugene Kogan, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

The Black Sea region is one of the regions in which Turkey has lost its influence to Russia. NATO and the EU have no influence on relations between Russia and Turkey, as NATO has no mechanism for excluding Turkey as a member state, while the EU, although it has implicitly suspended negotiations on Turkey's possible membership, it is not prepared to make a clear statement that Turkey will not join the Union in the foreseeable future. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |   |  Security
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The Rationale behind Armenia-Georgia Strategic Partnership

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

Since gaining independence in 1991 Armenia – Georgia relations have been characterized as friendly and mutually beneficial. Georgia is one of only two routes connecting Armenia to the world and Armenia serves as a land bridge for Georgia to Iran. The mainly positive historical memories also play a role in fomenting friendly images within both societies. […] Yet, there is a lack of clear articulation of the strategic rationale behind those bilateral relations. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |   |  External Relations
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Armenia and Azerbaijan will both finalise important political transitions before the end of April

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

The convergence in the timing of key political processes in Armenia and Azerbaijan has heightened interest in Armenia regarding Azerbaijan's domestic developments.
The Azerbaijani President decision to move Presidential elections from October to April 2018 caught many in Armenia by surprise. The expert community put forward several clues on potential reasons for such a decision. The most discussed option was the possible deterioration of the economic situation in Azerbaijan in the second half of the year, which theoretically may complicate the re-election of Aliyev. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 05.03.2018  |  External Relations
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Raising Tensions Around Iran: Should Armenia be Concerned?

Benyamin Poghosyan By Benyamin Poghosyan, PhD, Executive Director, Political Science Association of Armenia

In recent months Iran has been facing both internal and external challenges. The wave of demonstrations shook up the Islamic Republic in late December – early January 2017-2018. The expert community still has contradicting views for the main reasons of the protest movement: internal struggle between conservatives and reformists, outside meddling with main arrows targeting the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia as potential sponsors, spontaneous movement based on economic hardships and rampant corruption. READ MORE

  • EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 26.02.2018  |  External Relations
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EGF Head of Research, Dr. George Vlad NICULESCU, co-edited a new volume on “Understanding Contemporary Information Landscape Handbook (UCIL)” with the Austrian National Defence Academy and the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes: “The idea of this Handbook sprang forth from a policy recommendation issued at a past Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group (RSSC SG) workshop: “Create, with the assistance of PfP Consortium volunteers, a Reference Curriculum on Media Literacy, emphasizing the impact of modern communication techniques and social media on human biology, psychology and behaviour. The aim would be to raise awareness of the media as a tool of hybrid warfare, and how to build resilience to it at individual level.” Looking with an academic eye at the final product of our last three years of work I’d conclude that this Handbook is a great success as a valuable education tool for students and teachers in media studies, politics, international relations. READ MORE

EGF Affiliated Expert, Dr. Shanthie Mariet D’SOUZA was interviewed by “Al Jazeera” on India’s shifting relations with China and the U.S. in the context of Prime-Minister Narendra Modi’s participation to the latest SCO summit in Tianjin (China). WATCH HERE

EGF Affiliated Expert Benyamin POGHOSYAN appeared in a new episode of the GROONG Podcast where he discussed: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, the TRIPP corridor, Russia- Azerbaijan rift, and Armenia’s ties with the UK. WATCH HERE

EGF Affiliated Expert Alan WHITEHORN published recently a short comment on “Trump and the South Caucasus Accord” on keghart.org. He concluded that: “If Armenia survives over the next decade with no further loss of military personnel or territory due to incremental border encroachments or war, the tripartite agreement may be considered a minor win also for Yerevan”. READ MORE

 

Between 07-10 November 2024, Dr Marat TERTEROV and Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 28th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Connectivity Risks and Opportunities in the South Caucasus”, held in Reichenau a/d Rax (Austria). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, here for George’s speaking points, here for the policy recommendations, and here for the proceedings of the workshop

Between 10-13 April 2025, Dr George Vlad NICULESCU participated in the 29th workshop of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes on “Emerging Technologies in Conflict Prevention: Leveraging Technology for Peacebuilding in the South Caucasus”, held in Istanbul (Turkey). Please click here for the programme and agenda outline, and here for George’s speaking points.

On June 3, 2025, Dr. George Vlad Niculescu gave a short brief on the outcomes and potential implications of Romania’s 2025 presidential elections to the “Neighbourhoods” Working Group of the Institute of European Studies de l’Université UCLouvain, site de Saint-Louis-Brussels. Read here his briefing.

  • The Daily BriefAugust 14, 2025
  • Stratfor 2018 Second-Quarter ForecastMarch 11, 2018
  • Stratfor 2018 Annual ForecastDecember 26, 2017
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EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Fuad Shahbazov
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Fuad Shahbazov
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn
EGF Featured Publication from Affiliated Expert Alan Whitehorn

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