George Vlad Niculescu,
Head of Research, the European Geopolitical Forum

Just like other parts of Eurasia, the South Caucasus is facing the challenge of a renewed East-West geopolitical competition underpinned by three evolving challenges: 1) a growing ideological gap between Russia and the West; 2) the chronic persistence of protracted conflicts; 3) the dilemma of post-Soviet states: European vs. Eurasian integration.
More specifically, the South Caucasus geopolitical landscape is shaped by:

• the competition between Russia and the West in the wake of the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, which effectively brought the European cooperative security era to an end;
• growing Russian regional assertiveness, whereby the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is increasingly used as a vehicle for countering strides towards European integration, while OSCE-led conflict resolution is manipulated to create geopolitical leverage over the regional states;
• a tacit Russian-Turkish partnership of convenience, which is basically motivated by... READ MORE

• George Niculescu  |   |  Security
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By Armen Grigoryan,
EGF Guest Contributor

Armenia’s Russia-imposed self-isolation from the democratic international community continues and threatens to have economic and social consequences for the country. Russia is increasing its pressure in the South Caucasus, raising the specter of regional destabilization. While Russia already controls the most important sectors of Armenia’s economy, it seems set to reinforce its interests in the country so as to ensure that a fully dependent, loyal Armenia can constitute a tool for the projection of Russia’s political and military influence in the region. Russia’s overt attempt to fulfill its expansionist ambitions endangers the sovereignty of its neighbors, as well as regional stability and energy security. READ MORE

* This article was first published by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center" which holds the copyright for it.”

• Armen Grigoryan  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.05.2014  |  External Relations
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The Black Sea has lost none of its geopolitical significance over time. Historically, the Black Sea has played an important economic and political role in a wider-region. The realignment of geopolitical and security strategies in Eurasia during the last two decades has led to the “re-discovery” of one of the world’s most significant geostrategic areas. Securing access to new energy deposits from the Caspian has heightened the strategic significance of the Wider Black Sea (WBS) in Western external policy thinking. Unfortunately, since the early 1990s, the region has been bogged down in a belt of protracted conflicts that could potentially threaten both European stability and energy supply, while trans-national crime and other asymmetric security threats are thriving. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.06.2013  |  External Relations
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By George Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

In November 2012, the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Center for a New American Security published a series of papers built upon the "global swing states" concept launched by Daniel Kliman and Richard Fontaine in a report on: "Global Swing States: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and the Future of International Order". READ MORE

• George Niculescu  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 25.03.2013  |  Security
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Transition in Ukraine: A Critical Assessment and Current Challenges
January 2013

When the communist bloc disintegrated between 1989 and 1991, Western understanding of transition had been largely influenced by authoritarian transitions in Latin America and Southern Europe since the 1960s. Few scholars of post-communist transition have sought to develop a theoretical framework that encapsulates all four aspects of the quadruple transition: political and economic reform, state and nation building. Few scholars have grappled with the added complication of newly independent states, such as Ukraine, not only introducing political and economic reform simultaneously but also building institutions and a state while forging a unified nation-state. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 12.02.2013
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Transition in Turkey: A Critical Assessment and Current Challenges
January 2013

Following the footsteps of Kemal Atatürk, post-WWII Turkish political leaders kept the Western-oriented and secular orientation of the country. The Kemalist leadership was based on six main untouchable principles: “republicanism,” “nationalism,” “populism,” “secularism,” “reformism” and “statism.” READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 12.02.2013
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By George Niculescu,
Head of Research, The European Geopolitical Forum

Why use the OSCE to take a “jibe” at you know who ?

When on 6 December 2012, in the margins of the OSCE ministerial meeting in Dublin, the US state secretary Ms. Hillary Clinton warned about "a new effort by oppressive governments to "re-Sovietize" much of Eastern Europe and Central Asia" , many observers of Eurasian affairs might have wondered why she lashed out at Russia just before meeting foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss the Syrian crisis. READ MORE

• George Niculescu  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 08.01.2013  |  Markets
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In this research, we attempt to take a more pragmatic approach towards the topic of the conflict resolution process between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. We believe this process remains in a dangerous state of stalemate at the time of writing. More specifically, we ask whether economic incentives could help break the current deadlock. In order to do this, we posed a series of questions to a notable range of international experts familiar with the conflict, asking as to whether an approach towards conflict resolution where Armenia would return some land to Azerbaijan in return for the latter providing access to regional energy and infrastructure projects could contribute towards breaking the stalemate. The “return of land”, in the context of our research, refers primarily to the seven districts of Azerbaijan which Armenian forces took during the Karabakh war of the 1990s and which remains under Armenian control to this day. We do not assume the “return of land” to mean the return of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave itself. At the outset of our research, we were optimistic that the “economic incentives” approach could offer a fresh dimension to conflict resolution in relation to the current stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh. We felt that all parties could exercise a degree of “Caucasus pragmatism” if the right arguments were appropriately presented to governments and public, bearing in mind the widespread desire to see the region “take off” economically. Click here to read more.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 27.10.2012  |  External Relations
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Introduction
Debates about the geopolitical, geo-economic and strategic significance of the wider-Black Sea (WBS) region have become fashionable amongst Western policy makers and the international scholarly community since the end of the Cold War. While the Black Sea represented a “front line” in the stand-off between rival superpower blocks during an age which now seems to have slipped into the bygone days of our youth, the major geopolitical realignments which have taken place in Eurasia during the last two decades have evidently led to our “re-discovery” of one of the world’s most historically significant geostrategic playing fields. READ MORE

• Marat Terterov and George Niculescu  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 31.07.2012  |  External Relations
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• Dr. Oktay Tanrisever  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 27.07.2012  |  External Relations
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