Issue 4: March 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

The dispute between the Lithuanian Government and Gazprom continues. As we wrote in the preceding issue of the Gazprom Monitor, the dispute flared up after the Russian monopoly refused to give Vilnius the same gas price discount that it grants to the other Baltic States. Consequently, the Lithuanian side is forced to pay high gas prices. In response, Vilnius is trying to use the implementation of the Third Energy Package, in relation to the gas transport system of the country, as a lever of pressure against Gazprom. In the end this may bring about both a rupture in the agreement on the privatisation of Lietuvos dujos (37 percent of which belongs to Gazprom) and the separation of control over gas transmission pipelines from companies which own them. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 29.04.2011  |  Energy
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Mikhail Roshchin, EGF Affiliated Expert

While many in Russia have become accustomed to gas disputes with Ukraine as the flagship event hailing in the New Year, the start of 2011 brought with it a far more tragic security crisis when a major bomb blast ripped through the crowded halls of Moscow’s Domodedovo airport. The attack occurred in the arrivals area of the airport at 4.32 pm, on 24 January 2011, claiming the lives of 36 individuals and injuring 116 more. An act of terrorism was immediately assumed by many security experts, possibly involving a suicide bomber, who employed an explosive device containing 5-7 kilogrammes of Trinitrotoluene (TNT). Among the victims was Anna Yablonskaya, a 29-years-old Ukrainian playwright and poet who had come to Moscow to receive a prize from the magazine Art of the Cinema for her recent play. This attack follows the March 2010 suicide bombing in which two women, originally from Dagestan, blew themselves up in Moscow’s underground causing the death of 40 commuters. As was the case in the March 2010 attack, separatist-terrorists from the Russian North Caucasus were suspected of involvement in the Domodedovo attacks. These suspicions appeared to be confirmed earlier this month, when Chechen rebel leader, Doku Umarov, claimed responsibility for the bombing on February 4. In his video broadcast confirming responsibility for the attack, Umarov justified his actions on the basis of Russian state policy in the North Caucasus. READ MORE

• Mikhail Roshchin  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 25.04.2011  |  Security
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Issue 3: February 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

The dispute over the implementation of the EU Third Energy Package in Lithuania continues: the question of Europe’s energy security topped the agenda of the first ever EU energy summit which took place in Brussels on 4 February (2011). The summit began with a speech on the integrated EU energy market and general energy policy towards third countries. Special attention is being given to Russia and the dispute between Gazprom and the Government of Lithuania, which has arisen from plans to nationalise gas transmission pipelines belonging to Lietuvos Dujos. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 17.03.2011  |  Energy
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Issue 2: January 2011

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

According to export plans for 2011 revealed by Aleksei Miller, Gazprom will export more gas than in 2010, but still less than during the pre-crisis period. Gazprom plans to enter the Portuguese and Spanish markets, having arranged deliveries of gas from Africa. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 29.01.2011  |  Energy
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Issue 1: November/December 2010

A Snapshot Of Key Developments In The External Relations Of The Russian Gas Sector

Half a year after the gas dispute with Belarus, Gazprom has created a new ‘daughter’ company in Minsk, Gazprom Transgas West, as a potential operator of the Belarusian stretch of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. The current operator of the section in question is Beltransgaz, in which Gazprom holds a 50% stake. However, the new ‘daughter’ company, which will exercise complete control over the Belarusian section of the pipeline, will be completely controlled by Gazprom. Although few experts predicted that another gas dispute in 2010 was likely, since the current contract between Gazprom and Beltransgaz does not expire until the end of 2011, establishment of Transgas West implies that Moscow has been taking steps to prepare for the likelihood of future dispute scenarios. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 20.12.2010  |  Energy
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In a recent briefing on Russia, this Forum expressed the view that Moscow is becoming an increasingly assertive regional player in the wider Black and Caspian Sea (BCS) basin and that energy remains a key Russian priority for the region. We commented in that report that the Russian state-controlled energy holding, Gazprom, provided Moscow with a significant instrument to exercise power in the region. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 09.08.2010  |  Markets
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Exerting influence in the wider Black and Caspian Seas region is becoming a crucial element in Russia’s current geopolitical strategy. Energy and security are two of Moscow’s primary concerns relating to the region. Turkey, the EU, and the United States, as well as international energy companies will have to be aware of the operational instruments which Moscow has been deploying as part of its geopolitical strategy in the region, which include:
1) inserting itself into the domestic political affairs of its post-Soviet neighbors;
2) simultaneously acting as a crisis mediator/peacekeeper and fostering regional tension to provoke further crisis;
3) behaving as the regional “strong man” in the name of protecting Russian minorities;
4) strengthening energy ties with other former-Soviet Republics in the region; and
5) striking bilateral commercial deals with select Western corporate partners and governments. The deployment of such instruments will ensure that Moscow’s approach to regional geopolitics will remain purposefully unpredictable and full of intrigue, and will invariably continue to take other regional actors by surprise. READ MORE

• Marat Terterov, John Van Pool, Sergiy Nagornyy  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 04.08.2010  |  External Relations
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Jordan has always been a moderate monarchy and, taking into account the role of the British Empire in the foundation of the Hashemite Kingdom, one of the most pro-Western regimes in the Arab East. Jordan’s well-established relations with Russia, which have become even closer and warmer during the last decade, might therefore seem surprising. However, in the Middle East, perhaps even more than in any geopolitical regions, neither generalizations nor stereotypes are able to reflect complex realities. Moscow and Amman have a number of reasons to preserve and cultivate their cooperation

• Andrej Kreutz  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.07.2010  |  External Relations
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Summary of Panel I: The Future of the Energy Charter and the Debate over the Third Package
The energy trade between Russia and the countries of the European Union (EU) is of fundamental significance for the energy security of each party. Despite the close proximity of the EU-Russia energy relationship, however, the legal and political basis underpinning this relationship, particularly with regards to the gas trade, has proven itself inadequate in guaranteeing the energy security of both parties. Russia's recent announcement of its intention "of not becoming a member" of the Energy Charter Treaty, and new proposal for global energy security has created further uncertainty. While it is hoped that a new government in Kiev will lead to an improvement of Russian relations with Ukraine, Ukraine's national gas transportation operator remains in a difficult financial position and another gas crisis embroiling Ukraine, Russia and the EU, whilst hardly imminent, cannot be entirely ruled out.

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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Summary of Panel II: Russia’s Arctic Uncertainty
The discussion in the second panel of the online session, which focused on the future of upstream energy exploration projects in the Russian Arctic, brought out the following messages for European policy makers and was supported by the ensuing extended commentary. READ MORE

• EGF Editorial  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.05.2010  |  Energy
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