By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the US presidential elections approached, pundits and politicians worldwide sought to predict the outcome and explore scenarios for US foreign policy under Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. This was unsurprising: Despite the end of the unipolar world order and significant shifts in the global balance of power, the United States remains the superpower capable of global influence. The South Caucasus was no exception, as pundits debated the potential implications of the election results for the region. The uncertainty ended on November 5, as Donald Trump secured his return to the White House in January 2025. What might the South Caucasus expect from Trump’s second presidency? READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.11.2024  |  External Relations
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On October 15, Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways Rovshan Rustamov arrived in Tehran to meet his Iranian counterpart Jabbar Ali Zakeri Sardroudi to discuss the construction of a railway line linking Azerbaijan’s East Zangezur region and its Nakhchivan exclave through Iran. The meeting came amid intensive diplomatic negotiations between Azerbaijan and Iran regarding the Aras Corridor transit route linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and further to Türkiye via Iran after a period of silence and diplomatic rifts between the two neighbors. The Aras Corridor project, strategically significant for both Baku and Tehran, emerged following Azerbaijan’s persistent efforts after the 2020 Karabakh War to establish regional communication lines, particularly a land route, through Armenia’s Syunik province to Nakhchivan and Türkiye, known as the Zangezur Corridor. The ongoing confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the land route through Syunik province has been a major point of contention, delaying the signing of a final peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.11.2024  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

With the future of key connectivity projects at stake, India must step up as a reliable mediator as the war in the Middle East escalates.
On 7 October 2023, Hamas launched the “al Aqsa Storm” operation against Israel, triggering a series of retaliatory military actions from both sides. Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Yemen also became involved, further escalating the conflict. With rising regional tensions and direct involvement from both Israel and Iran, instability across the Middle East has intensified. This conflict will also impact the future of economic corridors in the region in which India invests. In this context, the future of two important corridors—the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC)— is at stake. India initiated both corridors, emerging as a rising power in Eurasia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.11.2024  |  External Relations
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By Tabib Huseynov, independent policy analyst and researcher

In October 2024, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan simultaneously approved a Protocol regulating the joint work of their respective border delimitation commissions. Originally signed in August, this Protocol sets the legal and procedural framework for the subsequent border delimitation process between the two South Caucasus neighbours, who have been locked in a territorial dispute for over three decades. The protocol’s enactment in both countries became possible after Armenia’s Constitutional Court issued a landmark Decision No. 1749 on 26 September 2024, confirming that the border delimitation agreement complied with Armenia’s Constitution. As border delimitation is a key issue in the post-war normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, this favourable decision was widely anticipated. However, the Court’s Decision is remarkable not for its outcome, but rather its legal rationale, which traps Armenia in a legal and political Catch-22. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 21.11.2024  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

In his book “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics” one of the world’s leading realist scholars John J. Mearsheimer argues that in an unbalanced multipolarity, the balance of power is so asymmetrically distributed in favour of one side, that other great powers have no choice but to come together to balance the hegemonic power. This is the only rational choice among other great powers. As such, this kind of international order is fragile and always prone to wars. Within this logic, many would assume that Eurasian powers such as Russia and China should have fully backed Iran or its non-state allies in the Middle East to defeat Israel, or at least contain US interests in the region. Interestingly, this is not the case. Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi (another rising Eurasian power) are engaging in strategic balance and realpolitik to assess the situation, waiting for the outcome of the US presidential elections, and aiming to contain any spillover effect to their zone of influence. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.11.2024  |  External Relations
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Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

APRI Armenia, in cooperation with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom Yerevan Office, conducted a research project from July to September 2024 to assess the geopolitical future of the South Caucasus. The report analysed the primary external factors influencing regional geopolitics. It assessed possible future developments in the South Caucasus, focusing on Armenian foreign policy diversification, the prospects of Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations, the possible future of Georgian foreign policy, and Azerbaijan’s quest for a new foreign policy vision after the military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh and the forced displacement of its Armenian population in September 2023. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 13.11.2024
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Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

On October 26, 2024, parliamentary elections were held in Georgia. Long before election day, they were called the most crucial Georgian elections since the 2003 Rose Revolution. Opposition parties presented the election as a choice between Russia and Europe, while the ruling Georgian Dream Party described it as a choice between peace and war. In both cases, geopolitics played a significant role.
The opposition accused the Georgian Dream of steering Georgia away from European integration. At the same time, the government claimed that the opposition sought to open a second front against Russia, transforming Georgia into another Ukraine. Georgian Dream even displayed posters on Tbilisi streets contrasting images of a peaceful Tbilisi with war-ravaged Ukrainian cities. Recent actions by the Georgian government, including the passage of a law on transparency of foreign influence and an anti-LGBT propaganda law, have strained Georgia’s relations with the West. The European Union halted the accession process and cancelled funding from the European Peace Facility, while the United States imposed sanctions on several Georgian officials. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 31.10.2024  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On October 3, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan hosted a high-level event in collaboration with the European Union, the Central Asian countries located along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (also known as the Middle Corridor), the South Caucasus states, and Türkiye, as well as the major international financial institutions. The event resulted in the establishment of a Coordination Platform for the Middle Corridor. According to the European Union, the Coordination Platform will focus on promoting the transit corridor and implementing priority infrastructure projects while coordinating investments in the South Caucasus and Türkiye. The European Union announced plans to launch a regional transport program in 2025 to support infrastructure development and provide technical assistance for improving standards, digitalization, and interoperability across the region. The Middle Corridor is an essential route that will allow Central Asia to better access Europe without having to go through sanctioned Russia, but it still faces numerous economic, logistical, and political roadblocks in its development. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 31.10.2024  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On August 20, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan declared the country had officially applied for membership in BRICS. BRICS is an intergovernmental cooperation platform that originally comprised Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and now includes five new members that include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. This announcement followed Azerbaijan’s initial declaration of its desire to join the bloc, revealed in the China-Azerbaijan joint declaration on establishing a strategic partnership. This was adopted by the two countries’ leaders on July 3 during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. The declaration highlights Azerbaijan’s intent to join BRICS and emphasizes China’s support for this initiative. Azerbaijan’s bid has also been backed by Russia, with the Kremlin expressing support for Baku’s application on several occasions over the past two months. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 23.10.2024  |  External Relations
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Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 23.10.2024  |  External Relations
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