By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Ukraine is positioning itself as a key transit hub for Azerbaijani gas to Europe, a move that could significantly alter the region’s energy landscape. If successful, this would carve out a new role for Kyiv after Russian supplies stopped flowing to the rest of Europe via Ukraine on January 1, pushing up European wholesale energy prices. The expiration of the Russian gas deal at the beginning of 2025 and Kyiv's decision not to prolong the agreement triggered heated debates within the European Union as countries like Hungary and Slovakia harshly criticised Ukraine, accusing it of igniting the energy crisis with no drastic impact on Russia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.02.2025  |  Energy
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, ISPI Senior Associate Research Fellow


Armenia signed an agreement to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in May 2014 after halting the process of signing an Association Agreement with the European Union. Many observers noted that Armenia’s then-President Serzh Sargsyan reversed his foreign policy following a meeting with Russia’s president in September 2013 in a U-turn. This decision paved the way for Armenia’s EAEU membership and halted the negotiation of an agreement that would have included, inter alia, a free-trade agreement with the EU. The reversal was likely made under Russian pressure and was influenced by geopolitical and geo-economic considerations. Armenia, supporting the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in its conflict with Azerbaijan, saw its alliance with Russia as a crucial deterrent against hostile neighbours, including Azerbaijan, which had significantly increased its military spending. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.02.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vusal GULIYEV, Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group and Policy Expert at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center

Azerbaijan is transforming into a key regional hub through strategic investments in transportation infrastructure, particularly along the Middle Corridor. Expanding rail, maritime, and digital connectivity, the country enhances trade between Europe and Asia. Projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and Port of Baku solidify Azerbaijan’s role in global logistics and economic diversification.
Azerbaijan’s focus on improving transportation infrastructure has been central to its role in enhancing regional connectivity, especially in the broader context of linking Europe and Asia. As part of the effort to revive the historic Silk Road, significant progress has been made in expanding trade and transportation networks—particularly rail and maritime routes that facilitate intercontinental trade along the east-west corridor. This expansion is a critical aspect of Baku’s long-term socio-economic growth strategy. Azerbaijan has consistently prioritized unlocking the trade potential of the Trans-Caspian routes, investing in advanced logistics and transportation infrastructure, including rail lines, highways, and seaports, supported by both domestic and international development initiatives. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.02.2025  |  Markets
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On January 6, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) announced plans to invest $7 billion in Türkiye’s energy sector in the coming years. Between 2008 and 2024, SOCAR Türkiye, SOCAR’s local subsidiary, invested $2 billion into the development of the petrochemical facilities of the Petkim petrochemical company privatized by SOCAR. The total investments of the company in the Turkish economy accounted for more than $18 billion between the same period, making the company the largest foreign investor in the country. In 2018, Azerbaijan made its largest one-time foreign investment in Türkiye by establishing the SOCAR Star Oil Refinery, which has an oil processing capacity of approximately 214,000 barrels per day. SOCAR’s steady inroads into Türkiye and further into the Balkans and Eastern Europe enable Baku to implement its geopolitical and geoeconomic interests while boosting strategic alliance with Ankara in many important fields READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.01.2025  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On January 14, 2025, as U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration breathed its last days, Armenia and the United States signed a Strategic Partnership Charter in Washington, D.C. The document was signed by Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. This article will highlight the key points of the agreement and present a reflection and analysis on how Armenia can benefit from the Charter to pursue its foreign policy goals, amid the regional reaction and the Azerbaijani president’s recent threats against Yerevan.
As per the agreement, both countries affirm the importance of their relationship as “friends and strategic partners.” They emphasize that this cooperation is based on “shared values and common interests,” which include democracy, economic freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. They also aim to collaborate on innovation and technological advances, bolster energy security and strengthen their relationship in the fields of education, science, culture, rule of law, defence, and security. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.01.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vusal GULIYEV, Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group and Policy Expert at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center

The strategic importance of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TCITR) has grown in recent years, paralleling geopolitical and economic developments on both global and regional scales. Against the backdrop of global logistics markets adapting to new conditions, the development of this multifaceted transport route, which encompasses transit states in Central Eurasia such as Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Kazakhstan, and Georgia, has become a priority for many nations and multinational corporations. Following prolonged delays in traditional transport and logistics corridors caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Trans-Caspian Corridor began to gain prominence in global freight transport. Its importance was further highlighted after the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, creating new long-term opportunities for the sustained development of this multimodal trans-regional route. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.01.2025  |  External Relations
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By Tabib HUSEYNOV, independent policy analyst and researcher

This article explores Azerbaijan’s evolving and increasingly more assertive foreign policy doctrine, which began to take shape following its victory over Armenia in the 2020 Second Karabakh War and was further solidified after its 2023 blitzkrieg operation, which dismantled institutionalized separatism within its territory. Conceptualized through the framework of strategic autonomy, this new doctrine is firmly anchored in realist and neorealist schools of thought, emphasizing pragmatic, interest-driven relationships with major regional and global powers while avoiding geopolitical entanglements. The paper argues that Azerbaijan’s quest for strategic autonomy is both a response to external pressures and a means to assert agency within the broader Eurasian security landscape. It also describes Azerbaijan as a “geopolitical interconnector”, capable of punching above its weight in contributing to international security, owing to its strategic location and diplomatic outreach across opposing blocs. The paper enriches scholarly discussions on strategic autonomy with a practical case study, offering a novel analytical framework to understand Azerbaijan’s foreign policy and its potential impact on regional and global geopolitics. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 17.01.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On December 25, Azerbaijan ended 2024 in nationwide sorrow and resentment following the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 near Aktau, Kazakhstan. The Embraer 190 aircraft, carrying 67 passengers from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, attempted an emergency landing but tragically crashed. Among those aboard were Azerbaijani, Russian, Kazakh, and Kyrgyz nationals. While 29 people survived, 38, including two pilots and a flight attendant, lost their lives. Initial reports attributed the crash to a collision with a flock of birds, but this theory was soon refuted when parts of the aircraft were found to bear shrapnel marks. The following day, Azerbaijani officials revealed that the crash was caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile, which exploded near the aircraft mid-flight, with shrapnel injuring passengers and crew. This incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russia relations, as Moscow refused to accept responsibility for the tragedy. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 17.01.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On December 30, Germany’s Der Spiegel, a publication often perceived as critical and biased against Azerbaijan – similar to many other German media outlets – reported on Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s reaction to Russia’s handling of a recent aeroplane crash crisis between the two countries. The publication noted, “Aliyev’s reaction is a testament to the increased weight of his country.” It continued, “Aliyev called the previous statements from the Russian side ‘nonsensical,’ ‘absurd,’ and ‘stupid.’ He spoke of attempts to cover up the situation and made it clear that with his apology, Putin had fulfilled only one of several conditions that Baku had demanded of Moscow.” For Der Spiegel, it appeared surprising that a relatively small country in Russia’s neighbourhood – often dismissed in the West as part of Moscow’s “backyard” – could stand up assertively against perceived injustices and demand its rights. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 08.01.2025  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

With the world’s focus on Russia and its war in Ukraine, China has been advancing its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, amid Iran’s political and military withdrawal from the Levant. Turkey, through the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), has been expanding its footprint in Central Asia. Ankara aims to increase its political and economic influence over the region by promoting regional stability and building stronger ties. Its objectives can be categorized as follows:

• Pan-Turkism: Turkey sees itself as the head of the Turkic-speaking peoples in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Using various tools and strategies, Turkey aims to enhance its cultural, historical and linguistic ties. For instance, in September 2024, the Turkic Academy agreed on a common 34-letter alphabet that would help the 170 million Turkic people worldwide understand and cooperate with each other more effectively.
• The OTS is also another way for Turkey to position itself in a vital role amid regional political dynamics. Central Asia looks to balance relationships with Russia and China, while the U.S. is working to undermine their influence, making Turkey an appealing partner for Central Asian states that seek to diversify their foreign relations and avoid dependence on a single external power. These states engage in multilateral forums such as the OTS and strengthen bilateral ties, such as when Turkey and Kazakhstan signed a deal to become strategic partners.

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 08.01.2025  |  External Relations
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