By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On February 14, Türkiye’s Energy Minister, Alparaslan Bayraktar, announced that a new energy agreement was signed with Turkmenistan, strengthening the bilateral relations between Ankara and Ashgabat. The main stakeholders of the agreement are Türkiye’s state-owned pipeline operator BOTAŞ and Turkmenistan’s state-owned Turkmengaz. The new agreement envisages 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas flow from Turkmenistan to Türkiye through Iran via its existing natural gas network, which began on March 1. The new swap agreement is a remarkable milestone in enhancing Türkiye’s energy security and attempts to diversify its supply sources. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.03.2025  |  Energy
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

With the disintegration of the Syrian state after 2011, the Kurds in northeast Syria became key players in shaping the country’s future. The recent agreement between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) further consolidated their role. However, the future of the Syrian state remains uncertain amid the horrors of the massacres of Alawites on the Syrian coast by radical Islamist factions affiliated with the new administration, Israel’s aspirations to encourage secessionist tendencies among the Druze community in Syria’s south, and Turkey’s strategic interests in Syria, which seem to collide with American- Israeli interests. This article sheds light on the agreement between Syria’s President Ahmad al-Sharaa and SDF General Mazloum Abdi and assess Turkey’s ambitions amid growing domestic and regional uncertainties shaping Syria’s future. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.03.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group

Azerbaijan’s strategic location in the South Caucasus, economic potential, and historical ties with Turkic states underscore its regional significance. Positioned as a vital energy corridor, it fosters economic diversification, infrastructure development, and diplomatic engagement with Central Asia. Azerbaijan plays a key role in regional connectivity, humanitarian initiatives, and multilateral cooperation within the Organization of Turkic States, shaping geopolitical dynamics.
Situated at the nexus of Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan’s proximity to significant energy producers and consumers has established it as a vital transit corridor for energy resources. This strategic positioning has not only reinforced Azerbaijan’s centrality in regional energy security but also facilitated avenues for collaboration and partnerships with neighbouring states. In addition to its prominence in the energy sector, Azerbaijan has pursued economic diversification, fostering expertise in fields such as advanced technology, transportation, and tourism. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 08.03.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

Armenia and Azerbaijan remain at an impasse in their ongoing peace process, facing the conditions of withdrawing international lawsuits and agreeing on a ban against third-party military forces along their border. Armenia’s constitutional claims over Karabakh and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group remain sensitive topics. Azerbaijan insists on amending Armenia’s constitution to eliminate future territorial disputes, while Armenia faces legal and political hurdles in making such changes. Disagreements over reopening transportation links further hinder the peace process. Azerbaijan demands an “unimpeded” land passage to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s Meghri region, while Armenia insists on controlled transit. This unresolved dispute continues to block progress toward a final agreement. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 28.02.2025  |  External Relations
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By Daria ISACHENKO, PhD, Associate Researcher, SWP Berlin/ CATS
Franziska SMOLNIK, PhD, Senior Fellow, SWP Berlin

Turkey is a NATO ally, an EU membership candidate, and a confident geopolitical actor. The latter aspect is uppermost in Berlin’s assessment of Ankara’s policy in the South Caucasus, where Turkey’s growing influence is recognised. If they are to make the most of the potential for cooperation, Ankara, and Berlin each need to acknowledge the other’s foreign policy framework and find ways to reconcile Turkey’s autonomous line with Germany’s EU-oriented and often normative approach.
The current state of Turkish foreign policy towards the South Caucasus rather resembles the situation in the Balkans, where “Ankara pursues a parallel, as opposed to an adversarial, strategy to that of the West”. Given that the South Caucasus does not involve sensitive issues such as those that characterise Ankara’s and Berlin’s bilateral relations, nor flashpoints in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean where their positions clearly diverge, it should theoretically be possible for Ankara and Berlin to start exploring areas of cooperation. If that is to happen, a middle ground will need to be found between Turkey’s autonomous action and Germany’s EU-embedded approach. Moreover, Berlin – and Brussels – will have to determine more clearly how to reconcile normative and geopolitical interests. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.02.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group

Amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and increasing global trade demands, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), comprising Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, and observer states, has undertaken a transformative Middle Corridor Initiative (MCI) to enhance the route within the global trade landscape. This 6,500-kilometer-long (approximately 4,000 miles) transport and trade route traversing Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye has gained renewed prominence as member states focus on developing secure, efficient, and competitive transport corridors to mitigate the challenges posed by sanctions and instability along traditional transit channels. The OTS has already devoted extensive efforts into systematically developing sophisticated logistics and transport facilities through various multilateral treaties signed within the context of MCI. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.02.2025  |  External Relations
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Ukraine is positioning itself as a key transit hub for Azerbaijani gas to Europe, a move that could significantly alter the region’s energy landscape. If successful, this would carve out a new role for Kyiv after Russian supplies stopped flowing to the rest of Europe via Ukraine on January 1, pushing up European wholesale energy prices. The expiration of the Russian gas deal at the beginning of 2025 and Kyiv's decision not to prolong the agreement triggered heated debates within the European Union as countries like Hungary and Slovakia harshly criticised Ukraine, accusing it of igniting the energy crisis with no drastic impact on Russia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.02.2025  |  Energy
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, ISPI Senior Associate Research Fellow


Armenia signed an agreement to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in May 2014 after halting the process of signing an Association Agreement with the European Union. Many observers noted that Armenia’s then-President Serzh Sargsyan reversed his foreign policy following a meeting with Russia’s president in September 2013 in a U-turn. This decision paved the way for Armenia’s EAEU membership and halted the negotiation of an agreement that would have included, inter alia, a free-trade agreement with the EU. The reversal was likely made under Russian pressure and was influenced by geopolitical and geo-economic considerations. Armenia, supporting the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in its conflict with Azerbaijan, saw its alliance with Russia as a crucial deterrent against hostile neighbours, including Azerbaijan, which had significantly increased its military spending. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.02.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vusal GULIYEV, Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group and Policy Expert at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center

Azerbaijan is transforming into a key regional hub through strategic investments in transportation infrastructure, particularly along the Middle Corridor. Expanding rail, maritime, and digital connectivity, the country enhances trade between Europe and Asia. Projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and Port of Baku solidify Azerbaijan’s role in global logistics and economic diversification.
Azerbaijan’s focus on improving transportation infrastructure has been central to its role in enhancing regional connectivity, especially in the broader context of linking Europe and Asia. As part of the effort to revive the historic Silk Road, significant progress has been made in expanding trade and transportation networks—particularly rail and maritime routes that facilitate intercontinental trade along the east-west corridor. This expansion is a critical aspect of Baku’s long-term socio-economic growth strategy. Azerbaijan has consistently prioritized unlocking the trade potential of the Trans-Caspian routes, investing in advanced logistics and transportation infrastructure, including rail lines, highways, and seaports, supported by both domestic and international development initiatives. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.02.2025  |  Markets
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On January 6, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) announced plans to invest $7 billion in Türkiye’s energy sector in the coming years. Between 2008 and 2024, SOCAR Türkiye, SOCAR’s local subsidiary, invested $2 billion into the development of the petrochemical facilities of the Petkim petrochemical company privatized by SOCAR. The total investments of the company in the Turkish economy accounted for more than $18 billion between the same period, making the company the largest foreign investor in the country. In 2018, Azerbaijan made its largest one-time foreign investment in Türkiye by establishing the SOCAR Star Oil Refinery, which has an oil processing capacity of approximately 214,000 barrels per day. SOCAR’s steady inroads into Türkiye and further into the Balkans and Eastern Europe enable Baku to implement its geopolitical and geoeconomic interests while boosting strategic alliance with Ankara in many important fields READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.01.2025  |  External Relations
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