Interview with Eugene KOGAN, Tbilisi-based defence and security expert

In a wide-ranging conversation with Radio Free Europe Georgian service, Kogan offers a stark assessment of the much-hyped Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal. Though labelled “historic”, the agreement remains stalled. Baku, holding the stronger hand, is in no rush to finalize it—using the drawn-out process to pressure Armenia into further concessions, including the Zangezur corridor and constitutional changes on Nagorno-Karabakh. Meanwhile, Armenia, increasingly isolated and eager to sign, lacks meaningful alternatives or strong international backing. Without a neutral mediator and amid shifting regional alliances—especially Georgia’s pivot toward Moscow—the deal looks more like a tool of leverage than a step toward lasting peace. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.05.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group

Over the past three decades, Turkish investment in China has steadily expanded, covering sectors such as energy, manufacturing, retail, and food. Despite certain market challenges, companies like Aksa and TAB Gıda have found scalable success. Backed by institutional frameworks, Türkiye’s strategic pivot to Asia continues to strengthen and diversify its economic relationship with China’s vast and growing market.
Economic relations between Türkiye and China have expanded considerably over the past three decades, evolving beyond trade to encompass mutual investment. While Chinese investments in Türkiye have typically drawn more attention, Turkish capital flowing into China has also steadily increased. Although Turkish investments remain less diversified and extensive than their Chinese counterparts, several Turkish companies have made notable contributions across multiple sectors. Nevertheless, China’s vast consumer base and industrial ecosystem have long been seen as a strategic target for Turkish businesses seeking to enhance their global reach. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 04.04.2025  |  Markets
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By Elkhan NURIYEV, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Mathias Corvinus Collegium Foundation in Budapest and Senior Fellow at the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in Berlin

Just over two months into U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, new uncertainties have begun to reshape the West’s approach toward the war in Ukraine. As the conflict grinds through its third year, signs of strategic drift have emerged across Western capitals. With battlefield momentum stalled, political divisions deepening, and public fatigue rising, the West now faces a narrowing window to reassess its goals—or risk drifting toward a scenario of prolonged stalemate and fractured unity. While former president Joe Biden framed the war as a broader fight for democracy and pledged open–ended support to Kyiv, Trump’s foreign policy instincts emphasize burden sharing, cost efficiency, and transactional diplomacy. These principles are already shaping Washington’s posture. Military aid packages have slowed, public rhetoric has shifted toward ending the war “quickly,” and U.S. diplomatic overtures increasingly hint at conditional support rather than blank checks. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 27.03.2025  |  Security
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia


The promise to end the war in Ukraine quickly was one of Donald J. Trump’s main campaign pledges. Upon returning to the White House in January 2025, the president began taking steps toward this goal. The world witnessed a whirlwind of negotiations: face-to-face meetings between Mr. Trump’s envoy, Steven Witkoff, and Russian President Vladimir Putin; multiple phone calls between Mr. Trump and Presidents Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky; direct US–Russia and US–Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia; and a tense meeting in the Oval Office with Mr. Zelensky.
As a result, Russia and Ukraine agreed to suspend attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure for one month. Negotiations are now underway for a broader ceasefire. It is too early to assess the likelihood of a complete and lasting ceasefire — let alone the prospects for a comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 27.03.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

On March 6, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel is engaged in discussions with the United States “to establish a strong foundation for trilateral cooperation between Israel, Azerbaijan, and the U.S.”. This statement coincided with debates in the Knesset on “Upgrading the Strategic Alliance between Israel and Azerbaijan”. The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) highlighted Azerbaijan’s role as a “strategic ally in the Caucasus region,” with bilateral cooperation spanning security, trade, technology, and energy. Israeli National Missions Minister Orit Strock, speaking on behalf of the government, emphasized the unique and long-standing friendship between Israel and Azerbaijan. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 27.03.2025  |  External Relations
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By Fuad Shahbazov, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On February 14, Türkiye’s Energy Minister, Alparaslan Bayraktar, announced that a new energy agreement was signed with Turkmenistan, strengthening the bilateral relations between Ankara and Ashgabat. The main stakeholders of the agreement are Türkiye’s state-owned pipeline operator BOTAŞ and Turkmenistan’s state-owned Turkmengaz. The new agreement envisages 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas flow from Turkmenistan to Türkiye through Iran via its existing natural gas network, which began on March 1. The new swap agreement is a remarkable milestone in enhancing Türkiye’s energy security and attempts to diversify its supply sources. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.03.2025  |  Energy
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

With the disintegration of the Syrian state after 2011, the Kurds in northeast Syria became key players in shaping the country’s future. The recent agreement between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) further consolidated their role. However, the future of the Syrian state remains uncertain amid the horrors of the massacres of Alawites on the Syrian coast by radical Islamist factions affiliated with the new administration, Israel’s aspirations to encourage secessionist tendencies among the Druze community in Syria’s south, and Turkey’s strategic interests in Syria, which seem to collide with American- Israeli interests. This article sheds light on the agreement between Syria’s President Ahmad al-Sharaa and SDF General Mazloum Abdi and assess Turkey’s ambitions amid growing domestic and regional uncertainties shaping Syria’s future. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.03.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vusal GULIYEV, Policy Advisor at the Center of Analysis of International Relations and Head of Shanghai Office at AZEGLOB Consulting Group

Azerbaijan’s strategic location in the South Caucasus, economic potential, and historical ties with Turkic states underscore its regional significance. Positioned as a vital energy corridor, it fosters economic diversification, infrastructure development, and diplomatic engagement with Central Asia. Azerbaijan plays a key role in regional connectivity, humanitarian initiatives, and multilateral cooperation within the Organization of Turkic States, shaping geopolitical dynamics.
Situated at the nexus of Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan’s proximity to significant energy producers and consumers has established it as a vital transit corridor for energy resources. This strategic positioning has not only reinforced Azerbaijan’s centrality in regional energy security but also facilitated avenues for collaboration and partnerships with neighbouring states. In addition to its prominence in the energy sector, Azerbaijan has pursued economic diversification, fostering expertise in fields such as advanced technology, transportation, and tourism. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 08.03.2025  |  External Relations
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By Vasif HUSEYNOV, PhD, Head of Department, AIR Center, Adjunct Lecturer, ADA and Khazar Universities, Baku

Armenia and Azerbaijan remain at an impasse in their ongoing peace process, facing the conditions of withdrawing international lawsuits and agreeing on a ban against third-party military forces along their border. Armenia’s constitutional claims over Karabakh and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group remain sensitive topics. Azerbaijan insists on amending Armenia’s constitution to eliminate future territorial disputes, while Armenia faces legal and political hurdles in making such changes. Disagreements over reopening transportation links further hinder the peace process. Azerbaijan demands an “unimpeded” land passage to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s Meghri region, while Armenia insists on controlled transit. This unresolved dispute continues to block progress toward a final agreement. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 28.02.2025  |  External Relations
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By Daria ISACHENKO, PhD, Associate Researcher, SWP Berlin/ CATS
Franziska SMOLNIK, PhD, Senior Fellow, SWP Berlin

Turkey is a NATO ally, an EU membership candidate, and a confident geopolitical actor. The latter aspect is uppermost in Berlin’s assessment of Ankara’s policy in the South Caucasus, where Turkey’s growing influence is recognised. If they are to make the most of the potential for cooperation, Ankara, and Berlin each need to acknowledge the other’s foreign policy framework and find ways to reconcile Turkey’s autonomous line with Germany’s EU-oriented and often normative approach.
The current state of Turkish foreign policy towards the South Caucasus rather resembles the situation in the Balkans, where “Ankara pursues a parallel, as opposed to an adversarial, strategy to that of the West”. Given that the South Caucasus does not involve sensitive issues such as those that characterise Ankara’s and Berlin’s bilateral relations, nor flashpoints in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean where their positions clearly diverge, it should theoretically be possible for Ankara and Berlin to start exploring areas of cooperation. If that is to happen, a middle ground will need to be found between Turkey’s autonomous action and Germany’s EU-embedded approach. Moreover, Berlin – and Brussels – will have to determine more clearly how to reconcile normative and geopolitical interests. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 22.02.2025  |  External Relations
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