By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine launched in early 2022 has fundamentally changed the international security architecture that had existed for many years, but it has also caused global political and economic cataclysms. Although Russian forces made significant gains thanks to heavy artillery fire, including missile strikes on cities all over Ukraine in the first weeks of combat, Ukrainian defenders quickly rebuffed attempts by consolidating its military power, exercising diplomatic connections, and launching counterattacks at Russian positions. The failures of continuous artillery and missile strikes in the following months prompted Russia to make some changes in its military tactics. As a result, Russia was forced to seek help from its traditional allies China and Iran through unofficial channels. Although China has refrained from overtly providing military support to Russia in order not to further complicate relations with Western countries, particularly with the United States, Iran began supplying locally produced long-range attack (suicide) drones to Russia. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.04.2023  |  Security
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By Nika CHITADZE, PhD, Director of the Center for International Studies, Tbilisi

As it is known, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow and Minsk agreed to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. The construction of a special warehouse is already underway and will be completed by July 1 of this year. Therefore, it can be said that Putin's blackmailing strategy has entered the next acute phase, and it is theoretically possible that such steps will sooner or later push the world toward a nuclear confrontation. It should be noted that after the dissemination of information about the placement of nuclear weapons in Belarus, the US Department of Defence issued an emergency statement. It says that "the Pentagon sees no indication that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons." On the other hand, as Vladimir Putin told the Russian government media, ten Su-25 aircraft capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons are already stationed on the territory of Belarus. In addition, according to him, Russia has given Belarus the "Iskander" missile system, which can also launch missiles equipped with a nuclear warhead. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 06.04.2023  |  Security
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By Nika CHITADZE, PhD, Director of the Center for International Studies, Tbilisi

At the beginning of March 2023, the Parliament of Georgia discussed and supported by the first hearing (with 76 votes) two draft laws regarding the “agents of foreign influence”. The discussion took place against the background of fierce protests both inside and outside the Parliament building. The bills were submitted by the political party “People’s Power”, which is a satellite of the Georgian Dream ruling party. Initially, the draft law “On transparency of foreign influence” was registered in the Parliament. To “ensure transparency”, the new law required the registration of non-entrepreneurial (non-commercial) legal entities and media means which received more than 20% of their income from abroad as “agents of foreign influence”. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.03.2023  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

Armenians in Lebanon are a deeply institutionalized and politicized community. Given its transnational nature, the community is affected by international, regional, and local developments. For this reason, the political parties and the community leadership analyse local events and position themselves in the Lebanese political space based on local, regional, and sometimes pan-Armenian calculations or interests. Hence the community, like other transnational ethno-religious groups, absorbs from its surroundings and reacts accordingly to preserve itself from security threats. […] This policy brief will also raise a few recommendations regarding new strategies and the need to adopt a vision for the future of the community amid the wave of uncertainties surrounding Lebanon. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.03.2023  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war has significantly changed the balance of power in the South Caucasus, increasing the role and influence of Turkey. The direct involvement of Turkey in the war and the lack of action by Russia to prevent this NATO member state from challenging the Russian zone of influence in the post-Soviet space crushed the basics of the Armenian foreign and security policy. Since the end of the first Nagorno Karabakh war in 1994, Armenian military doctrine has been based on the core belief that Russia will not allow direct Turkish involvement in a new war against Armenia. Thus, Armenia prepared itself for the war with Azerbaijan while outsourcing to Russia the deterrence of Turkey. Meanwhile, this mindset also resulted in a Russia-focused defence and security policy. Armenia was buying weapons mainly from Russia, almost all Armenian officers were studying in Russian military universities, and the structure and operating mode of the Armenian army was solely based on the Russian model. Armenia developed limited defence cooperation with other nations, including the US, Greece, and Poland, and signed its first Individual Partnership Action Plan with NATO in 2005. However, these sporadic interactions did not change the basics of Russia-focused foreign and military policy. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 24.03.2023  |  Security
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

Nagorno Karabakh's future is the most challenging question that Armenia and Azerbaijan face as they seek to move towards the normalisation of relations between them.
Since the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war ended, Armenia and Azerbaijan have launched multi-track negotiations to sign a peace treaty. In 2021 the primary platform for negotiations was Russia, and in 2022 the EU and the US joined the club. Armenia and Azerbaijan discuss several separate but intertwined issues – the signature of the peace treaty, delimitation and demarcation of borders, restoration of communications, and the future of Nagorno Karabakh. All issues are pretty complicated, but Nagorno Karabakh's future is the most challenging question. There are different approaches how to deal with this issue. One approach argues for the inclusion of Nagorno Karabakh in the bilateral peace treaty, while according to another view, the Nagorno Karabakh issue should be separated from discussions on Armenia - Azerbaijan relations. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 15.03.2023  |  Security
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On a diplomatic level, Turkey tried to launch “Astana style” diplomatic measures to address Nagorno-Karabakh. However, given the fact that the conflict was taking place in the post-Soviet space, Russia failed to see much incentive in engaging in a bilateral track with Turkey in the form of a new “Astana style” process where Turkey and Russia were going to be equal partners, addressing a conflict in Russia’s “backyard”.
The year 2022 witnessed intensified dialogues between top Syrian and Turkish officials. These kicked off with an August meeting in Damascus between Ali Mamlouk, the Head of the National Security Bureau of the Ba’ath Party and a Special Security Advisor to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Hakan Fidan, the Head of Turkiye’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT). They concluded with a tripartite December meeting in Moscow, where Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu hosted his Syrian and Turkish colleagues Ali Mahmoud Abbas and Hulusi Akar (remarkably, Ali Mamlouk and Hakan Fidan were also present). Those meetings prompted world media and political experts to speculate about an “unthinkable” Syrian-Turkish rapprochement becoming “thinkable”. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 15.03.2023  |  External Relations
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By Yeghia TASHJIAN, Beirut-based regional analyst and researcher, columnist, "The Armenian Weekly”

On February 6, 2023, two earthquakes with magnitudes 7.8 and 7.5—the deadliest in Turkey’s history—hit the Syrian-Turkish border. At least 45,000 people died in Turkey. Another 6,000 lives were lost in Syria. The fallout of the catastrophic earthquake came as President Erdogan faces his toughest re-election campaign yet. Despite speculation that Erdogan may postpone the elections, he declared that presidential and parliamentary elections will be held on the agreed-upon date, May 14 of this year.
Turkey is a central power in the Middle East. After the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh, its influence increased in the South Caucasus. Thus, any political shift will have an impact on the political landscape of the region. The Turkish President is known for exploiting crises; how he will be able to manage this current crisis and use it to his advantage is still questionable. This article will analyse the impact of the earthquake on Turkey’s domestic politics amid the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections as Turkey prepares to celebrate the centennial of its foundation as a republic in October 2023. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 10.03.2023  |  External Relations
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By Benyamin POGHOSYAN, PhD, Chairman, Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies

The war in Ukraine has disrupted global supply chains, creating significant complications for transit routes crossing the Russia-Europe border. The world economy, still reeling from COVID-19, found itself in another crisis. Yet, even before the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the primary sea transit routes connecting Southeast Asia with Europe, like the Suez Canal, were congested due to the growing cargo volumes. As one of the rising stars of the global economy, India was looking forward to establishing alternative routes to reach Europe. In 2000, India, Iran and Russia signed an agreement to launch the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to connect India with Europe via Iran and Russia. Three main routes were identified to connect India with Russia: via Iran and Azerbaijan, via Iran and the Caspian Sea and via Iran-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan. According to the initial plan, the cargo should enter northern Europe from Russia, creating an India-Europe route that circumvents the Suez Canal. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 10.03.2023  |  Markets
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By Fuad SHAHBAZOV, Baku-based independent regional security and defence analyst

On February 19, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan attended the discussion panel regarding the South Caucasus at the Munich Security Conference. Afterward, they held a face-to-face meeting on the side-lines of the conference with the mediation of United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Ultimately, the parties focused on the points at the top of their respective agendas, and as a result, they failed to reach a significant agreement on many key issues, including the status of the Lachin road and future development of the Zangezur Corridor. Aliyev revealed in a later interview that he had proposed to the Armenian side the establishment of bilateral checkpoints at both ends of the Zangezur Corridor and along the Lachin road. Since the end of the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan has long sought the establishment of this desired corridor through Armenia’s Syunik province to connect the country with its Nakhchivan exclave, albeit unsuccessfully. Thus, debates over the Zangezur project, among other issues, have led to a stalemate in peace negotiations, with regional actors, such as Iran, strictly standing against the project and supporting Armenia in its opposition. READ MORE

• EGF Editor  |  Опубликовано на EGF: 03.03.2023  |  Security
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